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Ontario


Wellington—Halton Hills


MPP: Arnott, Ted (PCPO)


Latest projection: February 20, 2024

Safe PCPO
Wellington—Halton Hills 45% ± 9%▼ 20% ± 6%▲ 16% ± 7% 14% ± 5%▼ 4% ± 3% PCPO 2022 50.6% 338Canada Popular vote projection | February 20, 2024
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by profesional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.

50% 100% Wellington—Halton Hills >99% <1% <1% Odds of winning | February 20, 2024
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).


Popular vote projection | Wellington—Halton Hills

OLP 20% ± 6% PCPO 45% ± 9% NDP 14% ± 5% GPO 16% ± 7% NBPO 4% ± 3% Popular vote projection % | Wellington—Halton Hills 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2022-07-01 2022-10-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-04-01 2023-07-01 2023-10-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-04-01 2024-07-01 2024-10-01 Election 2022 OLP PCPO NDP GPO NBPO

Odds of winning | Wellington—Halton Hills

OLP <1% PCPO >99% NDP <1% GPO <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2022-07-01 2022-10-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-04-01 2023-07-01 2023-10-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-04-01 2024-07-01 2024-10-01 Election 2022 OLP PCPO NDP GPO

Recent electoral history | Wellington—Halton Hills



2014 2018 2022 Proj. PCPO 46.6% 54.0% 50.6% 45% ± 9% NDP 14.1% 24.0% 15.6% 14% ± 5% GPO 7.4% 8.6% 14.1% 16% ± 7% OLP 29.3% 12.8% 14.0% 20% ± 6% NBPO 0.0% 0.0% 5.1% 4% ± 3%