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Ontario

Wellington—Halton Hills


MPP: Arnott, Ted (PCPO)
Latest projection: February 20, 2025
Safe PCPO

Candidates | Wellington—Halton Hills


PC Party of Ontario Joseph Racinsky
Liberal Party Alex Hilson
Ontario NDP Simone Kent
Green Party Bronwynne Wilton
New Blue Party Stephen Kitras
Ontario Party Jason Medland
Independent Ron Patava

Candidates listed here are on the Elections Ontario website.

Wellington—Halton Hills 55% ± 9% PCPO 17% ± 6% OLP 14% ± 6% GPO 10% ± 4% NDP PCPO 2022 50.6% 338Canada Popular vote projection | February 20, 2025
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Wellington—Halton Hills >99% PCPO <1% OLP <1% GPO Odds of winning | February 20, 2025
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).


Popular vote projection | Wellington—Halton Hills

OLP 17% ± 6% PCPO 55% ± 9% NDP 10% ± 4% GPO 14% ± 6% Popular vote projection % | Wellington—Halton Hills 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2025-02-01 2025-02-15 2025-03-01 Election 2025 Campaign begins OLP PCPO NDP GPO February 20, 2025 2025-01-27 PCPO 50% OLP 17% GPO 15% NDP 14% 2025-01-27 2025-01-29 PCPO 51% OLP 17% GPO 16% NDP 13% 2025-01-29 2025-01-31 PCPO 54% OLP 16% GPO 15% NDP 13% 2025-01-31 2025-02-02 PCPO 54% OLP 16% GPO 14% NDP 13% 2025-02-02 2025-02-03 PCPO 53% OLP 17% GPO 14% NDP 13% 2025-02-03 2025-02-04 PCPO 54% OLP 17% GPO 14% NDP 12% 2025-02-04 2025-02-05 PCPO 54% OLP 17% GPO 14% NDP 12% 2025-02-05 2025-02-06 PCPO 55% OLP 17% GPO 14% NDP 12% 2025-02-06 2025-02-07 PCPO 55% OLP 17% GPO 14% NDP 12% 2025-02-07 2025-02-08 PCPO 54% OLP 17% GPO 14% NDP 12% 2025-02-08 2025-02-09 PCPO 54% OLP 16% GPO 14% NDP 12% 2025-02-09 2025-02-10 PCPO 54% OLP 17% GPO 14% NDP 12% 2025-02-10 2025-02-11 PCPO 55% OLP 17% GPO 14% NDP 11% 2025-02-11 2025-02-12 PCPO 55% OLP 17% GPO 14% NDP 11% 2025-02-12 2025-02-13 PCPO 54% OLP 17% GPO 14% NDP 11% 2025-02-13 2025-02-14 PCPO 54% OLP 17% GPO 14% NDP 11% 2025-02-14 2025-02-15 PCPO 55% OLP 17% GPO 14% NDP 10% 2025-02-15 2025-02-16 PCPO 55% OLP 17% GPO 14% NDP 10% 2025-02-16 2025-02-17 PCPO 54% OLP 18% GPO 15% NDP 11% 2025-02-17 2025-02-18 PCPO 54% OLP 18% GPO 14% NDP 11% 2025-02-18 2025-02-19 PCPO 55% OLP 17% GPO 14% NDP 10% 2025-02-19 2025-02-20 PCPO 55% OLP 17% GPO 14% NDP 10% 2025-02-20

Odds of winning | Wellington—Halton Hills

OLP <1% PCPO >99% NDP <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2025-02-01 2025-02-15 2025-03-01 Election 2025 Campaign begins OLP PCPO NDP February 20, 2025 2025-01-27 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-01-27 2025-01-29 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-01-29 2025-01-31 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-01-31 2025-02-02 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-02 2025-02-03 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-03 2025-02-04 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-04 2025-02-05 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-05 2025-02-06 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-06 2025-02-07 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-07 2025-02-08 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-08 2025-02-09 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-09 2025-02-10 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-10 2025-02-11 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-11 2025-02-12 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-12 2025-02-13 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-13 2025-02-14 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-14 2025-02-15 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-15 2025-02-16 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-16 2025-02-17 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-17 2025-02-18 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-18 2025-02-19 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-19 2025-02-20 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-20

Recent electoral history | Wellington—Halton Hills



2014 2018 2022 Proj. PCPO 46.6% 54.0% 50.6% 55% ± 9% NDP 14.1% 24.0% 15.6% 10% ± 4% GPO 7.4% 8.6% 14.1% 14% ± 6% OLP 29.3% 12.8% 14.0% 17% ± 6% NBPO 0.0% 0.0% 5.1% 2% ± 2% ONP 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1% ± 1%