logo
Ontario


Essex


MPP: Leardi, Anthony (PCPO)


Latest projection: August 26, 2023

Safe PCPO
Essex 48% ± 9%▲ 29% ± 8%▼ 9% ± 4% 7% ± 4% 3% ± 2% 3% ± 2% PCPO 2022 51.1% 338Canada Popular vote projection | August 26, 2023
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by profesional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.

50% 100% Essex >99% <1% <1% Odds of winning | August 26, 2023
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).


Popular vote projection | Essex

OLP 9% ± 4% PCPO 48% ± 9% NDP 29% ± 8% ONP 7% ± 4% Popular vote projection % | Essex 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2022-05-01 2022-07-01 2022-09-01 2022-11-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-03-01 2023-05-01 2023-07-01 2023-09-01 2023-11-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-03-01 Election 2022 OLP PCPO NDP ONP

Odds of winning | Essex

OLP <1% PCPO >99% NDP <1% GPO <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2022-05-01 2022-07-01 2022-09-01 2022-11-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-03-01 2023-05-01 2023-07-01 2023-09-01 2023-11-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-03-01 Election 2022 OLP PCPO NDP GPO

Recent electoral history | Essex



2014 2018 2022 Proj. PCPO 21.8% 42.3% 51.1% 48% ± 9% NDP 60.3% 48.5% 28.3% 29% ± 8% OLP 14.3% 5.7% 8.5% 9% ± 4% ONP 0.0% 0.0% 6.8% 7% ± 4% NBPO 0.0% 0.0% 2.7% 3% ± 2% GPO 3.6% 3.5% 2.0% 3% ± 2%