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Recent electoral history | Essex


2018 2022 2025 Projection PC 49% ± 9% 42.3% 51.1% 55.5% OLP 22% ± 7% 5.7% 8.5% 15.7% NDP 22% ± 7% 48.5% 28.3% 21.7% GPO 2% ± 2% 3.5% 2.0% 2.3% ONP 2% ± 2% 0.0% 6.8% 2.0% NBPO 2% ± 1% 0.0% 2.7% 1.6% IND 0% ± 1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.4%

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338Canada Essex projection

Latest update: May 24, 2026

Essex 41% 58% 49% ± 9% PC 16% 29% 22% ± 7% OLP 15% 28% 22% ± 7% NDP PC 2025 55.46% 338Canada Popular vote projection | May 24, 2026
Methodology note. This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Essex >99% PC <1% OLP <1% NDP Odds of winning | May 24, 2026
Methodology note. These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of simulated elections.

338Canada Ontario Projection | Essex

Odds of winning | Essex