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Ontario

Essex


MPP: Leardi, Anthony (PCPO)

Latest projection: November 12, 2024
Safe PCPO
Essex 53% ± 9%▲ PCPO 25% ± 7% NDP 11% ± 5% OLP 6% ± 4% ONP 3% ± 2% GPO PCPO 2022 51.1% 338Canada Popular vote projection | November 12, 2024
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Essex >99% PCPO <1% NDP <1% OLP Odds of winning | November 12, 2024
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).


Popular vote projection | Essex

OLP 11% ± 5% PCPO 53% ± 9% NDP 25% ± 7% ONP 6% ± 4% Popular vote projection % | Essex 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2022-05-01 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 2025-09-01 Election 2022 OLP PCPO NDP ONP November 12, 2024 2022-04-30 PCPO 44% NDP 33% OLP 11% 2022-04-30 2022-05-03 PCPO 44% NDP 35% OLP 10% 2022-05-03 2022-05-04 PCPO 45% NDP 34% OLP 10% 2022-05-04 2022-05-05 PCPO 45% NDP 34% OLP 10% 2022-05-05 2022-05-06 PCPO 45% NDP 34% OLP 10% 2022-05-06 2022-05-07 PCPO 44% NDP 34% OLP 10% 2022-05-07 2022-05-08 PCPO 44% NDP 34% OLP 10% 2022-05-08 2022-05-09 PCPO 44% NDP 34% OLP 11% 2022-05-09 2022-05-10 PCPO 44% NDP 34% OLP 11% 2022-05-10 2022-05-11 PCPO 45% NDP 33% OLP 10% 2022-05-11 2022-05-12 PCPO 45% NDP 33% OLP 10% 2022-05-12 2022-05-13 PCPO 45% NDP 33% OLP 10% 2022-05-13 2022-05-14 PCPO 45% NDP 33% OLP 10% 2022-05-14 2022-05-15 PCPO 42% NDP 36% OLP 9% 2022-05-15 2022-05-16 PCPO 42% NDP 37% OLP 9% 2022-05-16 2022-05-17 PCPO 41% NDP 35% OLP 11% 2022-05-17 2022-05-18 PCPO 41% NDP 35% OLP 11% 2022-05-18 2022-05-19 PCPO 41% NDP 34% OLP 11% 2022-05-19 2022-05-20 PCPO 40% NDP 35% OLP 11% 2022-05-20 2022-05-21 PCPO 40% NDP 35% OLP 11% 2022-05-21 2022-05-22 PCPO 40% NDP 35% OLP 11% 2022-05-22 2022-05-23 PCPO 40% NDP 35% OLP 10% 2022-05-23 2022-05-24 PCPO 40% NDP 35% OLP 11% 2022-05-24 2022-05-25 PCPO 39% NDP 35% OLP 10% 2022-05-25 2022-05-26 PCPO 39% NDP 35% OLP 10% 2022-05-26 2022-05-27 PCPO 40% NDP 35% OLP 10% 2022-05-27 2022-05-28 PCPO 41% NDP 34% OLP 10% 2022-05-28 2022-05-29 PCPO 41% NDP 34% OLP 10% 2022-05-29 2022-05-30 PCPO 39% NDP 35% OLP 10% 2022-05-30 2022-05-31 PCPO 40% NDP 35% OLP 10% 2022-05-31 2022-06-01 PCPO 41% NDP 34% OLP 10% 2022-06-01 2022-06-03 PCPO 51% NDP 28% OLP 8% 2022-06-03 2022-12-30 PCPO 51% NDP 29% OLP 9% 2022-12-30 2023-02-15 PCPO 51% NDP 27% OLP 9% 2023-02-15 2023-03-09 PCPO 51% NDP 27% OLP 9% 2023-03-09 2023-03-17 PCPO 51% NDP 27% OLP 9% 2023-03-17 2023-04-16 PCPO 51% NDP 27% OLP 9% 2023-04-16 2023-07-07 PCPO 46% NDP 30% OLP 9% 2023-07-07 2023-07-22 PCPO 46% NDP 30% OLP 9% 2023-07-22 2023-07-28 PCPO 47% NDP 30% OLP 9% 2023-07-28 2023-08-26 PCPO 48% NDP 29% OLP 9% 2023-08-26 2023-10-07 PCPO 45% NDP 31% OLP 10% 2023-10-07 2023-10-23 PCPO 47% NDP 30% OLP 9% 2023-10-23 2023-12-01 PCPO 51% NDP 30% OLP 9% 2023-12-01 2023-12-20 PCPO 50% NDP 30% OLP 10% 2023-12-20 2024-02-02 PCPO 50% NDP 29% OLP 10% 2024-02-02 2024-02-20 PCPO 49% NDP 27% OLP 13% 2024-02-20 2024-03-05 PCPO 50% NDP 25% OLP 13% 2024-03-05 2024-04-04 PCPO 50% NDP 26% OLP 12% 2024-04-04 2024-05-03 PCPO 51% NDP 26% OLP 12% 2024-05-03 2024-06-30 PCPO 51% NDP 26% OLP 11% 2024-06-30 2024-07-29 PCPO 53% NDP 24% OLP 11% 2024-07-29 2024-10-09 PCPO 52% NDP 25% OLP 11% 2024-10-09 2024-11-11 PCPO 53% NDP 25% OLP 11% 2024-11-11

Odds of winning | Essex

OLP <1% PCPO >99% NDP <1% GPO <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2022-05-01 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 2025-09-01 Election 2022 OLP PCPO NDP GPO November 12, 2024 2022-04-30 PCPO 96% NDP 4% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2022-04-30 2022-05-03 PCPO 93% NDP 7% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2022-05-03 2022-05-04 PCPO 97% NDP 3% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2022-05-04 2022-05-05 PCPO 97% NDP 3% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2022-05-05 2022-05-06 PCPO 96% NDP 4% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2022-05-06 2022-05-07 PCPO 96% NDP 4% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2022-05-07 2022-05-08 PCPO 95% NDP 5% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2022-05-08 2022-05-09 PCPO 96% NDP 4% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2022-05-09 2022-05-10 PCPO 96% NDP 4% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2022-05-10 2022-05-11 PCPO 97% NDP 3% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2022-05-11 2022-05-12 PCPO 98% NDP 2% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2022-05-12 2022-05-13 PCPO 98% NDP 2% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2022-05-13 2022-05-14 PCPO 98% NDP 2% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2022-05-14 2022-05-15 PCPO 83% NDP 17% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2022-05-15 2022-05-16 PCPO 78% NDP 22% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2022-05-16 2022-05-17 PCPO 86% NDP 14% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2022-05-17 2022-05-18 PCPO 87% NDP 13% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2022-05-18 2022-05-19 PCPO 87% NDP 13% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2022-05-19 2022-05-20 PCPO 83% NDP 17% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2022-05-20 2022-05-21 PCPO 83% NDP 17% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2022-05-21 2022-05-22 PCPO 81% NDP 19% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2022-05-22 2022-05-23 PCPO 84% NDP 16% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2022-05-23 2022-05-24 PCPO 84% NDP 16% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2022-05-24 2022-05-25 PCPO 78% NDP 22% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2022-05-25 2022-05-26 PCPO 78% NDP 22% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2022-05-26 2022-05-27 PCPO 79% NDP 21% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2022-05-27 2022-05-28 PCPO 88% NDP 12% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2022-05-28 2022-05-29 PCPO 88% NDP 12% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2022-05-29 2022-05-30 PCPO 78% NDP 22% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2022-05-30 2022-05-31 PCPO 78% NDP 22% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2022-05-31 2022-06-01 PCPO 89% NDP 11% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2022-06-01 2022-06-03 PCPO >99% GPO <1% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2022-06-03 2022-12-30 PCPO >99% NDP <1% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2022-12-30 2023-02-15 PCPO >99% GPO <1% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2023-02-15 2023-03-09 PCPO >99% NDP <1% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2023-03-09 2023-03-17 PCPO >99% GPO <1% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2023-03-17 2023-04-16 PCPO >99% GPO <1% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2023-04-16 2023-07-07 PCPO >99% NDP <1% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2023-07-07 2023-07-22 PCPO >99% NDP <1% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2023-07-22 2023-07-28 PCPO >99% NDP <1% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2023-07-28 2023-08-26 PCPO >99% NDP <1% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2023-08-26 2023-10-07 PCPO 99% NDP 1% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2023-10-07 2023-10-23 PCPO >99% NDP <1% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2023-10-23 2023-12-01 PCPO >99% NDP <1% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2023-12-01 2023-12-20 PCPO >99% NDP <1% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2023-12-20 2024-02-02 PCPO >99% NDP <1% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2024-02-02 2024-02-20 PCPO >99% NDP <1% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2024-02-20 2024-03-05 PCPO >99% GPO <1% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2024-03-05 2024-04-04 PCPO >99% GPO <1% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2024-04-04 2024-05-03 PCPO >99% GPO <1% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2024-05-03 2024-06-30 PCPO >99% GPO <1% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2024-06-30 2024-07-29 PCPO >99% GPO <1% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2024-07-29 2024-10-09 PCPO >99% GPO <1% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2024-10-09 2024-11-11 PCPO >99% GPO <1% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2024-11-11

Recent electoral history | Essex



2014 2018 2022 Proj. PCPO 21.8% 42.3% 51.1% 53% ± 9% NDP 60.3% 48.5% 28.3% 25% ± 7% OLP 14.3% 5.7% 8.5% 11% ± 5% ONP 0.0% 0.0% 6.8% 6% ± 4% NBPO 0.0% 0.0% 2.7% 2% ± 2% GPO 3.6% 3.5% 2.0% 3% ± 2%