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Essex


MPP: Leardi, Anthony (PCPO)

Latest projection: May 3, 2024
Safe PCPO
Essex 51% ± 9%▲ PCPO 26% ± 8% NDP 12% ± 5% OLP 6% ± 4% ONP 3% ± 2% GPO PCPO 2022 51.1% 338Canada Popular vote projection | May 3, 2024
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by profesional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Essex >99% PCPO <1% NDP <1% OLP Odds of winning | May 3, 2024
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).


Popular vote projection | Essex

OLP 12% ± 5% PCPO 51% ± 9% NDP 26% ± 8% ONP 6% ± 4% Popular vote projection % | Essex 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2022-05-01 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 Election 2022 OLP PCPO NDP ONP

Odds of winning | Essex

OLP <1% PCPO >99% NDP <1% GPO <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2022-05-01 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 Election 2022 OLP PCPO NDP GPO

Recent electoral history | Essex



2014 2018 2022 Proj. PCPO 21.8% 42.3% 51.1% 51% ± 9% NDP 60.3% 48.5% 28.3% 26% ± 8% OLP 14.3% 5.7% 8.5% 12% ± 5% ONP 0.0% 0.0% 6.8% 6% ± 4% NBPO 0.0% 0.0% 2.7% 2% ± 2% GPO 3.6% 3.5% 2.0% 3% ± 2%