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Ontario

Essex


MPP: Leardi, Anthony (PCPO)
Latest projection: February 20, 2025
Safe PCPO

Candidates | Essex


PC Party of Ontario Anthony Leardi
Liberal Party Tamara Stomp
Ontario NDP Rachael Mills
Green Party Stephen Higgins
New Blue Party Brigitte Belton
Ontario Party Travis Jacques
None of the Above Party Kevin Linfield
Independent William Szabo Verzoc

Candidates listed here are on the Elections Ontario website.

Essex 61% ± 9% PCPO 20% ± 7%▼ NDP 11% ± 5% OLP PCPO 2022 51.1% 338Canada Popular vote projection | February 20, 2025
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Essex >99% PCPO <1% NDP <1% OLP Odds of winning | February 20, 2025
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).


Popular vote projection | Essex

OLP 11% ± 5% PCPO 61% ± 9% NDP 20% ± 7% ONP 3% ± 2% Popular vote projection % | Essex 65 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2025-02-01 2025-02-15 2025-03-01 Election 2025 Campaign begins OLP PCPO NDP ONP February 20, 2025 2025-01-27 PCPO 54% NDP 26% OLP 10% 2025-01-27 2025-01-29 PCPO 55% NDP 25% OLP 10% 2025-01-29 2025-01-31 PCPO 58% NDP 25% OLP 10% 2025-01-31 2025-02-02 PCPO 58% NDP 25% OLP 10% 2025-02-02 2025-02-03 PCPO 57% NDP 25% OLP 11% 2025-02-03 2025-02-04 PCPO 59% NDP 23% OLP 11% 2025-02-04 2025-02-05 PCPO 59% NDP 23% OLP 11% 2025-02-05 2025-02-06 PCPO 59% NDP 23% OLP 11% 2025-02-06 2025-02-07 PCPO 59% NDP 23% OLP 11% 2025-02-07 2025-02-08 PCPO 59% NDP 23% OLP 11% 2025-02-08 2025-02-09 PCPO 59% NDP 23% OLP 10% 2025-02-09 2025-02-10 PCPO 59% NDP 23% OLP 11% 2025-02-10 2025-02-11 PCPO 60% NDP 22% OLP 11% 2025-02-11 2025-02-12 PCPO 60% NDP 21% OLP 11% 2025-02-12 2025-02-13 PCPO 60% NDP 21% OLP 11% 2025-02-13 2025-02-14 PCPO 60% NDP 21% OLP 11% 2025-02-14 2025-02-15 PCPO 61% NDP 20% OLP 11% 2025-02-15 2025-02-16 PCPO 61% NDP 20% OLP 11% 2025-02-16 2025-02-17 PCPO 60% NDP 21% OLP 12% 2025-02-17 2025-02-18 PCPO 60% NDP 21% OLP 11% 2025-02-18 2025-02-19 PCPO 61% NDP 21% OLP 11% 2025-02-19 2025-02-20 PCPO 61% NDP 20% OLP 11% 2025-02-20

Odds of winning | Essex

OLP <1% PCPO >99% NDP <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2025-02-01 2025-02-15 2025-03-01 Election 2025 Campaign begins OLP PCPO NDP February 20, 2025 2025-01-27 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-01-27 2025-01-29 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-01-29 2025-01-31 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-01-31 2025-02-02 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-02 2025-02-03 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-03 2025-02-04 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-04 2025-02-05 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-05 2025-02-06 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-06 2025-02-07 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-07 2025-02-08 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-08 2025-02-09 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-09 2025-02-10 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-10 2025-02-11 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-11 2025-02-12 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-12 2025-02-13 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-13 2025-02-14 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-14 2025-02-15 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-15 2025-02-16 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-16 2025-02-17 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-17 2025-02-18 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-18 2025-02-19 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-19 2025-02-20 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-20

Recent electoral history | Essex



2014 2018 2022 Proj. PCPO 21.8% 42.3% 51.1% 61% ± 9% NDP 60.3% 48.5% 28.3% 20% ± 7% OLP 14.3% 5.7% 8.5% 11% ± 5% ONP 0.0% 0.0% 6.8% 3% ± 2% NBPO 0.0% 0.0% 2.7% 1% ± 1% GPO 3.6% 3.5% 2.0% 3% ± 2%