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Ontario


Lambton—Kent—Middlesex


MPP: Vacant ()


Latest projection: February 20, 2024

Safe PCPO
Lambton—Kent—Middlesex 55% ± 9%▼ 17% ± 6%▼ 15% ± 6%▲ 6% ± 4%▲ 5% ± 4% PCPO 2022 59.0% 338Canada Popular vote projection | February 20, 2024
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by profesional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.

50% 100% Lambton—Kent—Middlesex >99% <1% <1% Odds of winning | February 20, 2024
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).


Popular vote projection | Lambton—Kent—Middlesex

OLP 15% ± 6% PCPO 55% ± 9% NDP 17% ± 6% GPO 6% ± 4% NBPO 5% ± 4% Popular vote projection % | Lambton—Kent—Middlesex 65 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2022-07-01 2022-10-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-04-01 2023-07-01 2023-10-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-04-01 2024-07-01 2024-10-01 Election 2022 OLP PCPO NDP GPO NBPO

Odds of winning | Lambton—Kent—Middlesex

OLP <1% PCPO >99% NDP <1% GPO <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2022-07-01 2022-10-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-04-01 2023-07-01 2023-10-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-04-01 2024-07-01 2024-10-01 Election 2022 OLP PCPO NDP GPO

Recent electoral history | Lambton—Kent—Middlesex



2014 2018 2022 Proj. PCPO 45.3% 55.3% 59.0% 55% ± 9% NDP 26.4% 33.3% 18.8% 17% ± 6% OLP 20.2% 6.2% 9.7% 15% ± 6% NBPO 0.0% 0.0% 6.2% 5% ± 4% GPO 4.6% 3.3% 4.0% 6% ± 4% ONP 0.0% 0.0% 1.7% 1% ± 2%