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Ontario

Lambton—Kent—Middlesex


MPP elect: Stephen Pinsonneault (PCPO)
Latest projection: February 28, 2025
Safe PCPO

Candidates | Lambton—Kent—Middlesex


PC Party of Ontario Stephen Pinsonneault
Liberal Party Cathy Burghardt-Jesson
Ontario NDP Kathryn Shailer
Green Party Andraena Tilgner
New Blue Party Andy Fisher

Candidates listed here are on the Elections Ontario website.

Lambton—Kent—Middlesex 54% ± 0%▼ PCPO 26% ± 0%▲ OLP 12% ± 0% NDP 4% ± 0%▲ NBPO 4% ± 0%▲ GPO PCPO 2022 59.0% 338Canada Popular vote projection | February 28, 2025
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Lambton—Kent—Middlesex >99% PCPO <1% OLP <1% NDP Odds of winning | February 28, 2025
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).


Popular vote projection | Lambton—Kent—Middlesex

OLP 26% ± 0% PCPO 54% ± 0% NDP 12% ± 0% GPO 4% ± 0% NBPO 4% ± 0% Popular vote projection % | Lambton—Kent—Middlesex 75 70 65 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2025-02-01 2025-02-15 2025-03-01 Election 2025 Campaign begins OLP PCPO NDP GPO NBPO February 28, 2025 2025-01-27 PCPO 61% NDP 15% OLP 15% GPO 2% 2025-01-27 2025-01-29 PCPO 62% NDP 15% OLP 15% GPO 2% 2025-01-29 2025-01-31 PCPO 65% NDP 15% OLP 14% GPO 2% 2025-01-31 2025-02-02 PCPO 65% NDP 14% OLP 14% GPO 2% 2025-02-02 2025-02-03 PCPO 64% OLP 15% NDP 15% GPO 2% 2025-02-03 2025-02-04 PCPO 65% OLP 15% NDP 13% GPO 2% 2025-02-04 2025-02-05 PCPO 65% OLP 15% NDP 13% GPO 2% 2025-02-05 2025-02-06 PCPO 66% OLP 15% NDP 13% GPO 2% 2025-02-06 2025-02-07 PCPO 66% OLP 15% NDP 13% GPO 2% 2025-02-07 2025-02-08 PCPO 65% OLP 15% NDP 13% GPO 2% 2025-02-08 2025-02-09 PCPO 65% OLP 15% NDP 14% GPO 2% 2025-02-09 2025-02-10 PCPO 65% OLP 15% NDP 13% GPO 2% 2025-02-10 2025-02-11 PCPO 66% OLP 15% NDP 13% GPO 2% 2025-02-11 2025-02-12 PCPO 66% OLP 15% NDP 12% GPO 2% 2025-02-12 2025-02-13 PCPO 67% OLP 16% NDP 13% GPO 2% 2025-02-13 2025-02-14 PCPO 67% OLP 16% NDP 12% GPO 2% 2025-02-14 2025-02-15 PCPO 68% OLP 16% NDP 12% GPO 2% 2025-02-15 2025-02-16 PCPO 68% OLP 16% NDP 12% GPO 2% 2025-02-16 2025-02-17 PCPO 66% OLP 16% NDP 12% GPO 2% 2025-02-17 2025-02-18 PCPO 67% OLP 16% NDP 12% GPO 2% 2025-02-18 2025-02-19 PCPO 67% OLP 16% NDP 12% GPO 2% 2025-02-19 2025-02-20 PCPO 68% OLP 16% NDP 12% GPO 2% 2025-02-20 2025-02-21 PCPO 67% OLP 16% NDP 12% GPO 2% 2025-02-21 2025-02-22 PCPO 67% OLP 16% NDP 12% GPO 2% 2025-02-22 2025-02-23 PCPO 67% OLP 16% NDP 12% GPO 2% 2025-02-23 2025-02-24 PCPO 67% OLP 16% NDP 12% GPO 2% 2025-02-24 2025-02-25 PCPO 67% OLP 16% NDP 12% GPO 2% 2025-02-25 2025-02-26 PCPO 68% OLP 15% NDP 12% GPO 2% 2025-02-26 2025-02-27 PCPO 68% OLP 15% NDP 12% GPO 2% 2025-02-27 2025-02-28 PCPO 54% OLP 26% NDP 12% GPO 4% 2025-02-28

Odds of winning | Lambton—Kent—Middlesex

OLP <1% PCPO >99% NDP <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2025-02-01 2025-02-15 2025-03-01 Election 2025 Campaign begins OLP PCPO NDP February 28, 2025 2025-01-27 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-01-27 2025-01-29 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-01-29 2025-01-31 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-01-31 2025-02-02 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-02 2025-02-03 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-03 2025-02-04 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-04 2025-02-05 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-05 2025-02-06 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-06 2025-02-07 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-07 2025-02-08 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-08 2025-02-09 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-09 2025-02-10 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-10 2025-02-11 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-11 2025-02-12 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-12 2025-02-13 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-13 2025-02-14 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-14 2025-02-15 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-15 2025-02-16 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-16 2025-02-17 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-17 2025-02-18 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-18 2025-02-19 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-19 2025-02-20 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-20 2025-02-21 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-21 2025-02-22 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-22 2025-02-23 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-23 2025-02-24 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-24 2025-02-25 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-25 2025-02-26 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-26 2025-02-27 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-27 2025-02-28 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-28

Recent electoral history | Lambton—Kent—Middlesex



2014 2018 2022 Proj. PCPO 45.3% 55.3% 59.0% 54% ± 0% NDP 26.4% 33.3% 18.8% 12% ± 0% OLP 20.2% 6.2% 9.7% 26% ± 0% NBPO 0.0% 0.0% 6.2% 4% ± 0% GPO 4.6% 3.3% 4.0% 4% ± 0%