logo
Ontario

Recent electoral history | Lambton—Kent—Middlesex


2018 2022 2025 Projection PC 48% ± 9% 55.3% 59.0% 53.6% OLP 31% ± 8% 6.2% 9.7% 26.2% NDP 13% ± 5% 33.3% 18.8% 12.2% NBPO 4% ± 3% 0.0% 6.2% 4.4% GPO 3% ± 2% 3.3% 4.0% 3.6%

Latest from the 338Canada newsletter

Loading latest analysis…


Ontario flag

338Canada Lambton—Kent—Middlesex projection

Latest update: September 3, 2026

Lambton—Kent—Middlesex 39% 58% 48% ± 9% PC 23% 39% 31% ± 8% OLP 8% 18% 13% ± 5% NDP 1% 7% 4% ± 3% NBPO PC 2025 53.55% 338Canada Popular vote projection | September 3, 2026
Methodology note. This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Lambton—Kent—Middlesex >99% PC <1% OLP <1% NDP Odds of winning | September 3, 2026
Methodology note. These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of simulated elections.

338Canada Ontario Projection | Lambton—Kent—Middlesex

Odds of winning | Lambton—Kent—Middlesex