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Ontario

Aurora—Oak Ridges—Richmond Hill


MPP: Parsa, Michael (PCPO)
Latest projection: February 20, 2025
Likely PCPO

Candidates | Aurora—Oak Ridges—Richmond Hill


PC Party of Ontario Michael Parsa
Liberal Party Jason Cherniak
Ontario NDP Naila Saeed
Green Party Ikram Kahn
New Blue Party Rosaria Wiseman

Candidates listed here are on the Elections Ontario website.

Aurora—Oak Ridges—Richmond Hill 54% ± 9% PCPO 35% ± 9% OLP 6% ± 3% NDP 4% ± 3% GPO PCPO 2022 53.3% 338Canada Popular vote projection | February 20, 2025
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Aurora—Oak Ridges—Richmond Hill >99% PCPO <1% OLP <1% NDP Odds of winning | February 20, 2025
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).


Popular vote projection | Aurora—Oak Ridges—Richmond Hill

OLP 35% ± 9% PCPO 54% ± 9% NDP 6% ± 3% GPO 4% ± 3% Popular vote projection % | Aurora—Oak Ridges—Richmond Hill 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2025-02-01 2025-02-15 2025-03-01 Election 2025 Campaign begins OLP PCPO NDP GPO February 20, 2025 2025-01-27 PCPO 52% OLP 33% NDP 8% GPO 5% 2025-01-27 2025-01-29 PCPO 53% OLP 33% NDP 7% GPO 5% 2025-01-29 2025-01-31 PCPO 55% OLP 32% NDP 7% GPO 4% 2025-01-31 2025-02-02 PCPO 55% OLP 31% NDP 7% GPO 4% 2025-02-02 2025-02-03 PCPO 55% OLP 32% NDP 7% GPO 4% 2025-02-03 2025-02-04 PCPO 55% OLP 33% NDP 7% GPO 4% 2025-02-04 2025-02-05 PCPO 55% OLP 33% NDP 7% GPO 4% 2025-02-05 2025-02-06 PCPO 56% OLP 32% NDP 7% GPO 4% 2025-02-06 2025-02-07 PCPO 55% OLP 32% NDP 7% GPO 4% 2025-02-07 2025-02-08 PCPO 53% OLP 34% NDP 7% GPO 4% 2025-02-08 2025-02-09 PCPO 53% OLP 33% NDP 7% GPO 4% 2025-02-09 2025-02-10 PCPO 53% OLP 34% NDP 7% GPO 4% 2025-02-10 2025-02-11 PCPO 53% OLP 34% NDP 6% GPO 4% 2025-02-11 2025-02-12 PCPO 53% OLP 35% NDP 6% GPO 4% 2025-02-12 2025-02-13 PCPO 54% OLP 35% NDP 6% GPO 4% 2025-02-13 2025-02-14 PCPO 53% OLP 35% NDP 6% GPO 4% 2025-02-14 2025-02-15 PCPO 54% OLP 35% NDP 6% GPO 4% 2025-02-15 2025-02-16 PCPO 54% OLP 35% NDP 6% GPO 4% 2025-02-16 2025-02-17 PCPO 53% OLP 36% NDP 6% GPO 4% 2025-02-17 2025-02-18 PCPO 53% OLP 36% NDP 6% GPO 4% 2025-02-18 2025-02-19 PCPO 54% OLP 35% NDP 6% GPO 4% 2025-02-19 2025-02-20 PCPO 54% OLP 35% NDP 6% GPO 4% 2025-02-20

Odds of winning | Aurora—Oak Ridges—Richmond Hill

OLP <1% PCPO >99% NDP <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2025-02-01 2025-02-15 2025-03-01 Election 2025 Campaign begins OLP PCPO NDP February 20, 2025 2025-01-27 PCPO >99% OLP <1% NDP <1% 2025-01-27 2025-01-29 PCPO >99% OLP <1% NDP <1% 2025-01-29 2025-01-31 PCPO >99% OLP <1% NDP <1% 2025-01-31 2025-02-02 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-02 2025-02-03 PCPO >99% OLP <1% NDP <1% 2025-02-03 2025-02-04 PCPO >99% OLP <1% NDP <1% 2025-02-04 2025-02-05 PCPO >99% OLP <1% NDP <1% 2025-02-05 2025-02-06 PCPO >99% OLP <1% NDP <1% 2025-02-06 2025-02-07 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-07 2025-02-08 PCPO >99% OLP <1% NDP <1% 2025-02-08 2025-02-09 PCPO >99% OLP <1% NDP <1% 2025-02-09 2025-02-10 PCPO >99% OLP <1% NDP <1% 2025-02-10 2025-02-11 PCPO >99% OLP <1% NDP <1% 2025-02-11 2025-02-12 PCPO >99% OLP <1% NDP <1% 2025-02-12 2025-02-13 PCPO >99% OLP <1% NDP <1% 2025-02-13 2025-02-14 PCPO >99% OLP <1% NDP <1% 2025-02-14 2025-02-15 PCPO >99% OLP <1% NDP <1% 2025-02-15 2025-02-16 PCPO >99% OLP <1% NDP <1% 2025-02-16 2025-02-17 PCPO >99% OLP <1% NDP <1% 2025-02-17 2025-02-18 PCPO >99% OLP <1% NDP <1% 2025-02-18 2025-02-19 PCPO >99% OLP <1% NDP <1% 2025-02-19 2025-02-20 PCPO >99% OLP <1% NDP <1% 2025-02-20

Recent electoral history | Aurora—Oak Ridges—Richmond Hill



2014 2018 2022 Proj. PCPO 38.1% 56.0% 53.3% 54% ± 9% OLP 45.7% 21.6% 30.7% 35% ± 9% NDP 10.5% 18.0% 7.7% 6% ± 3% GPO 3.5% 2.7% 3.9% 4% ± 3% NBPO 0.0% 0.0% 2.0% 1% ± 1%