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Aurora—Oak Ridges—Richmond Hill


MPP: Parsa, Michael (PCPO)

Latest projection: December 15, 2024
Safe PCPO
Aurora—Oak Ridges—Richmond Hill 55% ± 9%▲ PCPO 30% ± 8%▼ OLP 7% ± 4% NDP 5% ± 3% GPO PCPO 2022 53.3% 338Canada Popular vote projection | December 15, 2024
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Aurora—Oak Ridges—Richmond Hill >99% PCPO <1% OLP <1% NDP Odds of winning | December 15, 2024
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).


Popular vote projection | Aurora—Oak Ridges—Richmond Hill

OLP 30% ± 8% PCPO 55% ± 9% NDP 7% ± 4% GPO 5% ± 3% Popular vote projection % | Aurora—Oak Ridges—Richmond Hill 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2022-05-01 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 2025-09-01 Election 2022 OLP PCPO NDP GPO December 15, 2024 2022-04-30 PCPO 51% OLP 34% NDP 8% GPO 2% 2022-04-30 2022-05-03 PCPO 48% OLP 33% NDP 12% GPO 2% 2022-05-03 2022-05-04 PCPO 48% OLP 33% NDP 12% GPO 2% 2022-05-04 2022-05-05 PCPO 49% OLP 33% NDP 12% GPO 2% 2022-05-05 2022-05-06 PCPO 49% OLP 33% NDP 12% GPO 2% 2022-05-06 2022-05-07 PCPO 48% OLP 33% NDP 12% GPO 2% 2022-05-07 2022-05-08 PCPO 48% OLP 33% NDP 12% GPO 2% 2022-05-08 2022-05-09 PCPO 48% OLP 34% NDP 12% GPO 2% 2022-05-09 2022-05-10 PCPO 48% OLP 35% NDP 12% GPO 2% 2022-05-10 2022-05-11 PCPO 49% OLP 33% NDP 12% GPO 2% 2022-05-11 2022-05-12 PCPO 49% OLP 33% NDP 12% GPO 2% 2022-05-12 2022-05-13 PCPO 49% OLP 33% NDP 11% GPO 2% 2022-05-13 2022-05-14 PCPO 49% OLP 33% NDP 11% GPO 2% 2022-05-14 2022-05-15 PCPO 49% OLP 32% NDP 12% GPO 2% 2022-05-15 2022-05-16 PCPO 48% OLP 33% NDP 12% GPO 2% 2022-05-16 2022-05-17 PCPO 48% OLP 34% NDP 12% GPO 2% 2022-05-17 2022-05-18 PCPO 48% OLP 33% NDP 12% GPO 2% 2022-05-18 2022-05-19 PCPO 48% OLP 33% NDP 12% GPO 3% 2022-05-19 2022-05-20 PCPO 47% OLP 32% NDP 13% GPO 3% 2022-05-20 2022-05-21 PCPO 47% OLP 32% NDP 13% GPO 3% 2022-05-21 2022-05-22 PCPO 47% OLP 32% NDP 13% GPO 3% 2022-05-22 2022-05-23 PCPO 47% OLP 32% NDP 12% GPO 3% 2022-05-23 2022-05-24 PCPO 47% OLP 32% NDP 12% GPO 3% 2022-05-24 2022-05-25 PCPO 47% OLP 32% NDP 12% GPO 3% 2022-05-25 2022-05-26 PCPO 47% OLP 32% NDP 12% GPO 3% 2022-05-26 2022-05-27 PCPO 48% OLP 31% NDP 13% GPO 3% 2022-05-27 2022-05-28 PCPO 49% OLP 31% NDP 12% GPO 3% 2022-05-28 2022-05-29 PCPO 49% OLP 31% NDP 12% GPO 3% 2022-05-29 2022-05-30 PCPO 49% OLP 31% NDP 12% GPO 3% 2022-05-30 2022-05-31 PCPO 50% OLP 30% NDP 12% GPO 3% 2022-05-31 2022-06-01 PCPO 54% OLP 28% NDP 11% GPO 2% 2022-06-01 2022-06-03 PCPO 53% OLP 31% NDP 8% GPO 4% 2022-06-03 2022-12-30 PCPO 53% OLP 31% NDP 8% GPO 4% 2022-12-30 2023-02-15 PCPO 52% OLP 31% NDP 7% GPO 4% 2023-02-15 2023-03-09 PCPO 52% OLP 32% NDP 7% GPO 4% 2023-03-09 2023-03-17 PCPO 52% OLP 32% NDP 7% GPO 4% 2023-03-17 2023-04-16 PCPO 52% OLP 31% NDP 7% GPO 4% 2023-04-16 2023-07-07 PCPO 48% OLP 33% NDP 9% GPO 6% 2023-07-07 2023-07-22 PCPO 48% OLP 33% NDP 9% GPO 6% 2023-07-22 2023-07-28 PCPO 49% OLP 33% NDP 8% GPO 5% 2023-07-28 2023-08-26 PCPO 49% OLP 32% NDP 8% GPO 5% 2023-08-26 2023-10-07 PCPO 46% OLP 34% NDP 9% GPO 6% 2023-10-07 2023-10-23 PCPO 49% OLP 32% NDP 9% GPO 5% 2023-10-23 2023-12-01 PCPO 52% OLP 31% NDP 8% GPO 5% 2023-12-01 2023-12-20 PCPO 50% OLP 33% NDP 8% GPO 5% 2023-12-20 2024-02-02 PCPO 50% OLP 34% NDP 8% GPO 5% 2024-02-02 2024-02-20 PCPO 48% OLP 36% NDP 8% GPO 5% 2024-02-20 2024-03-05 PCPO 49% OLP 35% NDP 7% GPO 5% 2024-03-05 2024-04-04 PCPO 50% OLP 33% NDP 8% GPO 5% 2024-04-04 2024-05-03 PCPO 51% OLP 33% NDP 8% GPO 5% 2024-05-03 2024-06-30 PCPO 52% OLP 31% NDP 8% GPO 5% 2024-06-30 2024-07-29 PCPO 54% OLP 31% NDP 7% GPO 5% 2024-07-29 2024-10-09 PCPO 52% OLP 31% NDP 8% GPO 5% 2024-10-09 2024-11-11 PCPO 53% OLP 31% NDP 7% GPO 5% 2024-11-11 2024-12-15 PCPO 55% OLP 30% NDP 7% GPO 5% 2024-12-15

Odds of winning | Aurora—Oak Ridges—Richmond Hill

OLP <1% PCPO >99% NDP <1% GPO <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2022-05-01 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 2025-09-01 Election 2022 OLP PCPO NDP GPO December 15, 2024 2022-04-30 PCPO 99% OLP 1% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2022-04-30 2022-05-03 PCPO 99% OLP 1% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2022-05-03 2022-05-04 PCPO 99% OLP 1% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2022-05-04 2022-05-05 PCPO >99% OLP <1% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2022-05-05 2022-05-06 PCPO >99% OLP <1% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2022-05-06 2022-05-07 PCPO 99% OLP 1% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2022-05-07 2022-05-08 PCPO 99% OLP 1% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2022-05-08 2022-05-09 PCPO 99% OLP 1% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2022-05-09 2022-05-10 PCPO 98% OLP 2% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2022-05-10 2022-05-11 PCPO 99% OLP 1% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2022-05-11 2022-05-12 PCPO 99% OLP 1% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2022-05-12 2022-05-13 PCPO >99% OLP <1% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2022-05-13 2022-05-14 PCPO >99% OLP <1% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2022-05-14 2022-05-15 PCPO >99% OLP <1% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2022-05-15 2022-05-16 PCPO 99% OLP 1% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2022-05-16 2022-05-17 PCPO 99% OLP 1% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2022-05-17 2022-05-18 PCPO 99% OLP 1% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2022-05-18 2022-05-19 PCPO >99% OLP <1% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2022-05-19 2022-05-20 PCPO 99% OLP 1% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2022-05-20 2022-05-21 PCPO >99% OLP <1% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2022-05-21 2022-05-22 PCPO 99% OLP 1% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2022-05-22 2022-05-23 PCPO >99% OLP <1% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2022-05-23 2022-05-24 PCPO >99% OLP <1% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2022-05-24 2022-05-25 PCPO >99% OLP <1% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2022-05-25 2022-05-26 PCPO >99% OLP <1% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2022-05-26 2022-05-27 PCPO >99% OLP <1% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2022-05-27 2022-05-28 PCPO >99% OLP <1% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2022-05-28 2022-05-29 PCPO >99% OLP <1% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2022-05-29 2022-05-30 PCPO >99% OLP <1% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2022-05-30 2022-05-31 PCPO >99% OLP <1% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2022-05-31 2022-06-01 PCPO >99% GPO <1% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2022-06-01 2022-06-03 PCPO >99% GPO <1% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2022-06-03 2022-12-30 PCPO >99% OLP <1% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2022-12-30 2023-02-15 PCPO >99% OLP <1% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2023-02-15 2023-03-09 PCPO >99% OLP <1% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2023-03-09 2023-03-17 PCPO >99% OLP <1% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2023-03-17 2023-04-16 PCPO >99% OLP <1% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2023-04-16 2023-07-07 PCPO 99% OLP 1% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2023-07-07 2023-07-22 PCPO 99% OLP 1% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2023-07-22 2023-07-28 PCPO >99% OLP <1% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2023-07-28 2023-08-26 PCPO >99% OLP <1% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2023-08-26 2023-10-07 PCPO 98% OLP 2% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2023-10-07 2023-10-23 PCPO >99% OLP <1% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2023-10-23 2023-12-01 PCPO >99% OLP <1% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2023-12-01 2023-12-20 PCPO >99% OLP <1% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2023-12-20 2024-02-02 PCPO >99% OLP <1% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2024-02-02 2024-02-20 PCPO 97% OLP 3% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2024-02-20 2024-03-05 PCPO 99% OLP 1% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2024-03-05 2024-04-04 PCPO >99% OLP <1% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2024-04-04 2024-05-03 PCPO >99% OLP <1% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2024-05-03 2024-06-30 PCPO >99% OLP <1% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2024-06-30 2024-07-29 PCPO >99% OLP <1% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2024-07-29 2024-10-09 PCPO >99% OLP <1% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2024-10-09 2024-11-11 PCPO >99% OLP <1% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2024-11-11 2024-12-15 PCPO >99% OLP <1% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2024-12-15

Recent electoral history | Aurora—Oak Ridges—Richmond Hill



2014 2018 2022 Proj. PCPO 38.1% 56.0% 53.3% 55% ± 9% OLP 45.7% 21.6% 30.7% 30% ± 8% NDP 10.5% 18.0% 7.7% 7% ± 4% GPO 3.5% 2.7% 3.9% 5% ± 3% ONP 0.0% 0.0% 2.2% 1% ± 1% NBPO 0.0% 0.0% 2.0% 1% ± 1%