logo
Ontario

University—Rosedale


MPP: Bell, Jessica (NDP)
Latest projection: February 20, 2025
Toss up OLP/NDP

Candidates | University—Rosedale


PC Party of Ontario Sydney Pothakos
Liberal Party Pam Jeffery
Ontario NDP Jessica Bell
Green Party Ignacio Mongrell
New Blue Party Dylan Harris

Candidates listed here are on the Elections Ontario website.

University—Rosedale 30% ± 8% OLP 30% ± 8% NDP 22% ± 7% PCPO 16% ± 7% GPO NDP 2022 37.8% 338Canada Popular vote projection | February 20, 2025
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% University—Rosedale 53% OLP 46% NDP 1% PCPO Odds of winning | February 20, 2025
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).


Popular vote projection | University—Rosedale

OLP 30% ± 8% PCPO 22% ± 7% NDP 30% ± 8% GPO 16% ± 7% Popular vote projection % | University—Rosedale 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2025-02-01 2025-02-15 2025-03-01 Election 2025 Campaign begins OLP PCPO NDP GPO February 20, 2025 2025-01-27 NDP 33% OLP 29% PCPO 20% GPO 17% 2025-01-27 2025-01-29 NDP 33% OLP 29% PCPO 20% GPO 17% 2025-01-29 2025-01-31 NDP 33% OLP 28% PCPO 22% GPO 16% 2025-01-31 2025-02-02 NDP 33% OLP 28% PCPO 22% GPO 16% 2025-02-02 2025-02-03 NDP 33% OLP 29% PCPO 22% GPO 16% 2025-02-03 2025-02-04 NDP 32% OLP 29% PCPO 22% GPO 16% 2025-02-04 2025-02-05 NDP 32% OLP 29% PCPO 22% GPO 16% 2025-02-05 2025-02-06 NDP 31% OLP 29% PCPO 23% GPO 16% 2025-02-06 2025-02-07 NDP 31% OLP 29% PCPO 22% GPO 16% 2025-02-07 2025-02-08 NDP 32% OLP 29% PCPO 22% GPO 16% 2025-02-08 2025-02-09 NDP 32% OLP 28% PCPO 22% GPO 16% 2025-02-09 2025-02-10 NDP 32% OLP 29% PCPO 22% GPO 16% 2025-02-10 2025-02-11 NDP 31% OLP 29% PCPO 22% GPO 16% 2025-02-11 2025-02-12 NDP 30% OLP 30% PCPO 23% GPO 16% 2025-02-12 2025-02-13 NDP 30% OLP 30% PCPO 23% GPO 17% 2025-02-13 2025-02-14 OLP 30% NDP 30% PCPO 23% GPO 17% 2025-02-14 2025-02-15 OLP 30% NDP 30% PCPO 23% GPO 17% 2025-02-15 2025-02-16 OLP 30% NDP 30% PCPO 23% GPO 17% 2025-02-16 2025-02-17 OLP 31% NDP 30% PCPO 22% GPO 17% 2025-02-17 2025-02-18 OLP 31% NDP 30% PCPO 22% GPO 17% 2025-02-18 2025-02-19 OLP 30% NDP 30% PCPO 22% GPO 16% 2025-02-19 2025-02-20 OLP 30% NDP 30% PCPO 22% GPO 16% 2025-02-20

Odds of winning | University—Rosedale

OLP 53% PCPO 1% NDP 46% GPO <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2025-02-01 2025-02-15 2025-03-01 Election 2025 Campaign begins OLP PCPO NDP GPO February 20, 2025 2025-01-27 NDP 75% OLP 24% PCPO <1% GPO <1% 2025-01-27 2025-01-29 NDP 75% OLP 25% PCPO <1% GPO <1% 2025-01-29 2025-01-31 NDP 79% OLP 21% PCPO <1% GPO <1% 2025-01-31 2025-02-02 NDP 78% OLP 21% PCPO <1% GPO <1% 2025-02-02 2025-02-03 NDP 78% OLP 22% PCPO <1% GPO <1% 2025-02-03 2025-02-04 NDP 65% OLP 34% PCPO <1% GPO <1% 2025-02-04 2025-02-05 NDP 65% OLP 34% PCPO <1% GPO <1% 2025-02-05 2025-02-06 NDP 67% OLP 32% PCPO 1% GPO <1% 2025-02-06 2025-02-07 NDP 68% OLP 32% PCPO 1% GPO <1% 2025-02-07 2025-02-08 NDP 67% OLP 32% PCPO 1% GPO <1% 2025-02-08 2025-02-09 NDP 77% OLP 22% PCPO 1% GPO <1% 2025-02-09 2025-02-10 NDP 71% OLP 28% PCPO 1% GPO <1% 2025-02-10 2025-02-11 NDP 61% OLP 39% PCPO 1% GPO <1% 2025-02-11 2025-02-12 NDP 51% OLP 48% PCPO 1% GPO <1% 2025-02-12 2025-02-13 NDP 51% OLP 48% PCPO 1% GPO <1% 2025-02-13 2025-02-14 OLP 51% NDP 49% PCPO 1% GPO <1% 2025-02-14 2025-02-15 OLP 52% NDP 47% PCPO 1% GPO <1% 2025-02-15 2025-02-16 OLP 52% NDP 47% PCPO 1% GPO <1% 2025-02-16 2025-02-17 OLP 53% NDP 47% PCPO <1% GPO <1% 2025-02-17 2025-02-18 OLP 53% NDP 46% PCPO <1% GPO <1% 2025-02-18 2025-02-19 OLP 53% NDP 46% PCPO 1% GPO <1% 2025-02-19 2025-02-20 OLP 53% NDP 46% PCPO 1% GPO <1% 2025-02-20

Recent electoral history | University—Rosedale



2014 2018 2022 Proj. NDP 24.3% 49.7% 37.8% 30% ± 8% OLP 48.1% 22.1% 27.2% 30% ± 8% PCPO 18.4% 21.1% 17.4% 22% ± 7% GPO 7.1% 5.4% 15.9% 16% ± 7% NBPO 0.0% 0.0% 1.3% 1% ± 1%