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Ontario

University—Rosedale


MPP: Bell, Jessica (NDP)

Latest projection: November 12, 2024
Leaning NDP
University—Rosedale 33% ± 8% NDP 29% ± 8% OLP 18% ± 6% PCPO 18% ± 7% GPO NDP 2022 37.8% 338Canada Popular vote projection | November 12, 2024
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% University—Rosedale 79% NDP 21% OLP <1% GPO Odds of winning | November 12, 2024
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).


Popular vote projection | University—Rosedale

OLP 29% ± 8% PCPO 18% ± 6% NDP 33% ± 8% GPO 18% ± 7% Popular vote projection % | University—Rosedale 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2022-05-01 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 2025-09-01 Election 2022 OLP PCPO NDP GPO November 12, 2024 2022-04-30 NDP 35% OLP 34% PCPO 20% GPO 7% 2022-04-30 2022-05-03 NDP 35% OLP 34% PCPO 19% GPO 7% 2022-05-03 2022-05-04 NDP 34% OLP 34% PCPO 19% GPO 7% 2022-05-04 2022-05-05 OLP 34% NDP 34% PCPO 20% GPO 7% 2022-05-05 2022-05-06 NDP 34% OLP 32% PCPO 20% GPO 9% 2022-05-06 2022-05-07 NDP 34% OLP 32% PCPO 19% GPO 9% 2022-05-07 2022-05-08 NDP 34% OLP 32% PCPO 19% GPO 9% 2022-05-08 2022-05-09 NDP 34% OLP 33% PCPO 19% GPO 9% 2022-05-09 2022-05-10 NDP 34% OLP 33% PCPO 19% GPO 9% 2022-05-10 2022-05-11 NDP 34% OLP 32% PCPO 20% GPO 9% 2022-05-11 2022-05-12 NDP 34% OLP 32% PCPO 20% GPO 9% 2022-05-12 2022-05-13 NDP 34% OLP 32% PCPO 20% GPO 9% 2022-05-13 2022-05-14 NDP 34% OLP 32% PCPO 20% GPO 9% 2022-05-14 2022-05-15 NDP 34% OLP 32% PCPO 20% GPO 9% 2022-05-15 2022-05-16 NDP 34% OLP 32% PCPO 20% GPO 9% 2022-05-16 2022-05-17 OLP 34% NDP 32% PCPO 20% GPO 9% 2022-05-17 2022-05-18 OLP 33% NDP 32% PCPO 20% GPO 9% 2022-05-18 2022-05-19 OLP 32% NDP 31% PCPO 19% GPO 12% 2022-05-19 2022-05-20 NDP 33% OLP 31% PCPO 19% GPO 12% 2022-05-20 2022-05-21 NDP 33% OLP 31% PCPO 19% GPO 12% 2022-05-21 2022-05-22 NDP 33% OLP 31% PCPO 18% GPO 12% 2022-05-22 2022-05-23 NDP 33% OLP 31% PCPO 19% GPO 12% 2022-05-23 2022-05-24 NDP 33% OLP 31% PCPO 19% GPO 12% 2022-05-24 2022-05-25 NDP 32% OLP 31% PCPO 19% GPO 12% 2022-05-25 2022-05-26 NDP 32% OLP 31% PCPO 19% GPO 12% 2022-05-26 2022-05-27 NDP 34% OLP 29% PCPO 19% GPO 12% 2022-05-27 2022-05-28 NDP 33% OLP 29% PCPO 20% GPO 12% 2022-05-28 2022-05-29 NDP 33% OLP 29% PCPO 20% GPO 12% 2022-05-29 2022-05-30 NDP 33% OLP 29% PCPO 20% GPO 12% 2022-05-30 2022-05-31 NDP 33% OLP 29% PCPO 20% GPO 12% 2022-05-31 2022-06-01 NDP 33% OLP 29% PCPO 21% GPO 12% 2022-06-01 2022-06-03 NDP 38% OLP 27% PCPO 17% GPO 16% 2022-06-03 2022-12-30 NDP 38% OLP 27% PCPO 17% GPO 16% 2022-12-30 2023-02-15 NDP 35% OLP 28% GPO 18% PCPO 17% 2023-02-15 2023-03-09 NDP 35% OLP 29% GPO 18% PCPO 17% 2023-03-09 2023-03-17 NDP 35% OLP 29% GPO 18% PCPO 17% 2023-03-17 2023-04-16 NDP 36% OLP 28% GPO 18% PCPO 17% 2023-04-16 2023-07-07 NDP 37% OLP 27% GPO 20% PCPO 14% 2023-07-07 2023-07-22 NDP 37% OLP 27% GPO 19% PCPO 15% 2023-07-22 2023-07-28 NDP 37% OLP 27% GPO 18% PCPO 15% 2023-07-28 2023-08-26 NDP 37% OLP 28% GPO 18% PCPO 15% 2023-08-26 2023-10-07 NDP 38% OLP 28% GPO 18% PCPO 14% 2023-10-07 2023-10-23 NDP 38% OLP 27% GPO 18% PCPO 15% 2023-10-23 2023-12-01 NDP 37% OLP 27% GPO 18% PCPO 16% 2023-12-01 2023-12-20 NDP 37% OLP 29% GPO 18% PCPO 16% 2023-12-20 2024-02-02 NDP 36% OLP 29% GPO 17% PCPO 16% 2024-02-02 2024-02-20 NDP 34% OLP 33% GPO 17% PCPO 14% 2024-02-20 2024-03-05 NDP 33% OLP 32% GPO 18% PCPO 16% 2024-03-05 2024-04-04 NDP 34% OLP 31% GPO 17% PCPO 17% 2024-04-04 2024-05-03 NDP 34% OLP 30% GPO 18% PCPO 17% 2024-05-03 2024-06-30 NDP 34% OLP 29% GPO 18% PCPO 17% 2024-06-30 2024-07-29 NDP 33% OLP 29% PCPO 18% GPO 18% 2024-07-29 2024-10-09 NDP 33% OLP 29% GPO 18% PCPO 18% 2024-10-09 2024-11-11 NDP 33% OLP 29% PCPO 18% GPO 18% 2024-11-11

Odds of winning | University—Rosedale

OLP 21% PCPO <1% NDP 79% GPO <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2022-05-01 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 2025-09-01 Election 2022 OLP PCPO NDP GPO November 12, 2024 2022-04-30 NDP 56% OLP 44% PCPO <1% GPO <1% 2022-04-30 2022-05-03 NDP 58% OLP 42% GPO <1% PCPO <1% 2022-05-03 2022-05-04 NDP 51% OLP 49% PCPO <1% GPO <1% 2022-05-04 2022-05-05 OLP 52% NDP 48% PCPO <1% GPO <1% 2022-05-05 2022-05-06 NDP 69% OLP 31% PCPO <1% GPO <1% 2022-05-06 2022-05-07 NDP 68% OLP 32% PCPO <1% GPO <1% 2022-05-07 2022-05-08 NDP 68% OLP 32% GPO <1% PCPO <1% 2022-05-08 2022-05-09 NDP 60% OLP 40% PCPO <1% GPO <1% 2022-05-09 2022-05-10 NDP 55% OLP 45% GPO <1% PCPO <1% 2022-05-10 2022-05-11 NDP 64% OLP 36% PCPO <1% GPO <1% 2022-05-11 2022-05-12 NDP 62% OLP 38% PCPO <1% GPO <1% 2022-05-12 2022-05-13 NDP 61% OLP 39% PCPO <1% GPO <1% 2022-05-13 2022-05-14 NDP 61% OLP 39% PCPO <1% GPO <1% 2022-05-14 2022-05-15 NDP 68% OLP 32% PCPO <1% GPO <1% 2022-05-15 2022-05-16 NDP 64% OLP 36% PCPO <1% GPO <1% 2022-05-16 2022-05-17 OLP 61% NDP 39% PCPO <1% GPO <1% 2022-05-17 2022-05-18 OLP 63% NDP 37% PCPO <1% GPO <1% 2022-05-18 2022-05-19 OLP 60% NDP 40% PCPO <1% GPO <1% 2022-05-19 2022-05-20 NDP 64% OLP 36% PCPO <1% GPO <1% 2022-05-20 2022-05-21 NDP 65% OLP 35% GPO <1% PCPO <1% 2022-05-21 2022-05-22 NDP 65% OLP 35% PCPO <1% GPO <1% 2022-05-22 2022-05-23 NDP 63% OLP 37% PCPO <1% GPO <1% 2022-05-23 2022-05-24 NDP 61% OLP 39% PCPO <1% GPO <1% 2022-05-24 2022-05-25 NDP 60% OLP 40% PCPO <1% GPO <1% 2022-05-25 2022-05-26 NDP 60% OLP 40% PCPO <1% GPO <1% 2022-05-26 2022-05-27 NDP 85% OLP 15% PCPO <1% GPO <1% 2022-05-27 2022-05-28 NDP 81% OLP 19% PCPO <1% GPO <1% 2022-05-28 2022-05-29 NDP 80% OLP 20% PCPO <1% GPO <1% 2022-05-29 2022-05-30 NDP 80% OLP 20% PCPO <1% GPO <1% 2022-05-30 2022-05-31 NDP 80% OLP 20% PCPO <1% GPO <1% 2022-05-31 2022-06-01 NDP 80% OLP 19% PCPO <1% GPO <1% 2022-06-01 2022-06-03 NDP >99% OLP <1% GPO <1% PCPO <1% 2022-06-03 2022-12-30 NDP 98% OLP 2% GPO <1% PCPO <1% 2022-12-30 2023-02-15 NDP 90% OLP 9% GPO <1% PCPO <1% 2023-02-15 2023-03-09 NDP 88% OLP 12% GPO <1% PCPO <1% 2023-03-09 2023-03-17 NDP 89% OLP 11% GPO <1% PCPO <1% 2023-03-17 2023-04-16 NDP 94% OLP 6% GPO <1% PCPO <1% 2023-04-16 2023-07-07 NDP 98% OLP 2% GPO <1% PCPO <1% 2023-07-07 2023-07-22 NDP 97% OLP 3% GPO <1% PCPO <1% 2023-07-22 2023-07-28 NDP 97% OLP 3% GPO <1% PCPO <1% 2023-07-28 2023-08-26 NDP 97% OLP 3% GPO <1% PCPO <1% 2023-08-26 2023-10-07 NDP 96% OLP 4% GPO <1% PCPO <1% 2023-10-07 2023-10-23 NDP 98% OLP 2% GPO <1% PCPO <1% 2023-10-23 2023-12-01 NDP 98% OLP 2% GPO <1% PCPO <1% 2023-12-01 2023-12-20 NDP 94% OLP 6% GPO <1% PCPO <1% 2023-12-20 2024-02-02 NDP 90% OLP 10% GPO <1% PCPO <1% 2024-02-02 2024-02-20 NDP 58% OLP 42% GPO <1% PCPO <1% 2024-02-20 2024-03-05 NDP 55% OLP 45% GPO <1% PCPO <1% 2024-03-05 2024-04-04 NDP 75% OLP 25% GPO <1% PCPO <1% 2024-04-04 2024-05-03 NDP 74% OLP 26% GPO <1% PCPO <1% 2024-05-03 2024-06-30 NDP 84% OLP 16% GPO <1% PCPO <1% 2024-06-30 2024-07-29 NDP 77% OLP 23% GPO <1% PCPO <1% 2024-07-29 2024-10-09 NDP 79% OLP 21% GPO <1% PCPO <1% 2024-10-09 2024-11-11 NDP 79% OLP 21% GPO <1% PCPO <1% 2024-11-11

Recent electoral history | University—Rosedale



2014 2018 2022 Proj. NDP 24.3% 49.7% 37.8% 33% ± 8% OLP 48.1% 22.1% 27.2% 29% ± 8% PCPO 18.4% 21.1% 17.4% 18% ± 6% GPO 7.1% 5.4% 15.9% 18% ± 7% NBPO 0.0% 0.0% 1.3% 1% ± 1%