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Recent electoral history | University—Rosedale


2018 2022 2025 Projection NDP 49% ± 10% 49.7% 37.8% 46.7% OLP 28% ± 9% 22.1% 27.2% 30.4% PC 19% ± 7% 21.1% 17.4% 19.0% GPO 3% ± 2% 5.4% 15.9% 3.1% NBPO 1% ± 1% 0.0% 1.3% 0.7%

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338Canada University—Rosedale projection

Latest update: February 18, 2026

University—Rosedale 39% 59% 49% ± 10% NDP 20% 37% 28% ± 9% OLP 12% 26% 19% ± 7% PC NDP 2025 46.72% 338Canada Popular vote projection | February 18, 2026
Methodology note. This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% University—Rosedale >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% PC Odds of winning | February 18, 2026
Methodology note. These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of simulated elections.


Popular vote projection | University—Rosedale

OLP 28% ± 9% PC 19% ± 7% NDP 49% ± 10% Popular vote projection % | University—Rosedale 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 2026► 2026-01-01 2026-03-01 2026-05-01 2026-07-01 Election 2025 OLP PC NDP February 18, 2026 2025-01-27 NDP 33% OLP 29% PC 20% 2025-01-27 2025-01-29 NDP 33% OLP 29% PC 20% 2025-01-29 2025-01-31 NDP 33% OLP 28% PC 22% 2025-01-31 2025-02-02 NDP 33% OLP 28% PC 22% 2025-02-02 2025-02-03 NDP 33% OLP 29% PC 22% 2025-02-03 2025-02-04 NDP 32% OLP 29% PC 22% 2025-02-04 2025-02-05 NDP 32% OLP 29% PC 22% 2025-02-05 2025-02-06 NDP 31% OLP 29% PC 23% 2025-02-06 2025-02-07 NDP 31% OLP 29% PC 22% 2025-02-07 2025-02-08 NDP 32% OLP 29% PC 22% 2025-02-08 2025-02-09 NDP 32% OLP 28% PC 22% 2025-02-09 2025-02-10 NDP 32% OLP 29% PC 22% 2025-02-10 2025-02-11 NDP 31% OLP 29% PC 22% 2025-02-11 2025-02-12 NDP 30% OLP 30% PC 23% 2025-02-12 2025-02-13 NDP 30% OLP 30% PC 23% 2025-02-13 2025-02-14 OLP 30% NDP 30% PC 23% 2025-02-14 2025-02-15 OLP 30% NDP 30% PC 23% 2025-02-15 2025-02-16 OLP 30% NDP 30% PC 23% 2025-02-16 2025-02-17 OLP 31% NDP 30% PC 22% 2025-02-17 2025-02-18 OLP 31% NDP 30% PC 22% 2025-02-18 2025-02-19 OLP 30% NDP 30% PC 22% 2025-02-19 2025-02-20 OLP 30% NDP 30% PC 22% 2025-02-20 2025-02-21 OLP 30% NDP 30% PC 22% 2025-02-21 2025-02-22 NDP 30% OLP 30% PC 23% 2025-02-22 2025-02-23 NDP 30% OLP 30% PC 23% 2025-02-23 2025-02-24 NDP 30% OLP 30% PC 23% 2025-02-24 2025-02-25 NDP 30% OLP 30% PC 23% 2025-02-25 2025-02-26 OLP 30% NDP 30% PC 23% 2025-02-26 2025-02-27 NDP 30% OLP 30% PC 23% 2025-02-27 2025-02-28 NDP 47% OLP 30% PC 19% 2025-02-28 2025-06-07 NDP 46% OLP 30% PC 19% 2025-06-07 2025-06-27 NDP 46% OLP 31% PC 19% 2025-06-27 2025-07-27 NDP 46% OLP 31% PC 20% 2025-07-27 2025-08-31 NDP 42% OLP 31% PC 23% 2025-08-31 2025-10-21 NDP 44% OLP 31% PC 22% 2025-10-21 2025-11-23 NDP 47% OLP 29% PC 21% 2025-11-23 2025-12-20 NDP 49% OLP 28% PC 19% 2025-12-20 2026-01-25 NDP 49% OLP 28% PC 19% 2026-01-25 2026-02-18 NDP 49% OLP 28% PC 19% 2026-02-18

Odds of winning | University—Rosedale

OLP <1% NDP >99% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 2026► 2026-01-01 2026-03-01 2026-05-01 2026-07-01 Election 2025 OLP NDP February 18, 2026 2025-01-27 NDP 75% OLP 24% 2025-01-27 2025-01-29 NDP 75% OLP 25% 2025-01-29 2025-01-31 NDP 79% OLP 21% 2025-01-31 2025-02-02 NDP 78% OLP 21% 2025-02-02 2025-02-03 NDP 78% OLP 22% 2025-02-03 2025-02-04 NDP 65% OLP 34% 2025-02-04 2025-02-05 NDP 65% OLP 34% 2025-02-05 2025-02-06 NDP 67% OLP 32% 2025-02-06 2025-02-07 NDP 68% OLP 32% 2025-02-07 2025-02-08 NDP 67% OLP 32% 2025-02-08 2025-02-09 NDP 77% OLP 22% 2025-02-09 2025-02-10 NDP 71% OLP 28% 2025-02-10 2025-02-11 NDP 61% OLP 39% 2025-02-11 2025-02-12 NDP 51% OLP 48% 2025-02-12 2025-02-13 NDP 51% OLP 48% 2025-02-13 2025-02-14 OLP 51% NDP 49% 2025-02-14 2025-02-15 OLP 52% NDP 47% 2025-02-15 2025-02-16 OLP 52% NDP 47% 2025-02-16 2025-02-17 OLP 53% NDP 47% 2025-02-17 2025-02-18 OLP 53% NDP 46% 2025-02-18 2025-02-19 OLP 53% NDP 46% 2025-02-19 2025-02-20 OLP 53% NDP 46% 2025-02-20 2025-02-21 OLP 51% NDP 48% 2025-02-21 2025-02-22 NDP 53% OLP 46% 2025-02-22 2025-02-23 NDP 54% OLP 46% 2025-02-23 2025-02-24 NDP 54% OLP 45% 2025-02-24 2025-02-25 NDP 54% OLP 45% 2025-02-25 2025-02-26 OLP 50% NDP 49% 2025-02-26 2025-02-27 NDP 50% OLP 49% 2025-02-27 2025-02-28 NDP >99% OLP <1% 2025-02-28 2025-06-07 NDP >99% OLP <1% 2025-06-07 2025-06-27 NDP 99% OLP 1% 2025-06-27 2025-07-27 NDP >99% OLP <1% 2025-07-27 2025-08-31 NDP 97% OLP 3% 2025-08-31 2025-10-21 NDP 99% OLP 1% 2025-10-21 2025-11-23 NDP >99% OLP <1% 2025-11-23 2025-12-20 NDP >99% OLP <1% 2025-12-20 2026-01-25 NDP >99% OLP <1% 2026-01-25 2026-02-18 NDP >99% OLP <1% 2026-02-18