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Recent electoral history | Niagara West


2018 2022 2025 Projection PC 46% ± 10% 52.7% 44.9% 50.2% OLP 30% ± 8% 10.7% 19.2% 25.0% NDP 16% ± 6% 29.8% 20.7% 16.5% GPO 4% ± 3% 5.6% 6.5% 4.5% NBPO 1% ± 2% 0.0% 2.6% 1.5% ONP 1% ± 2% 0.0% 5.3% 1.4%

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338Canada Niagara West projection

Latest update: August 7, 2026

Niagara West 36% 55% 46% ± 10% PC 22% 38% 30% ± 8% OLP 10% 22% 16% ± 6% NDP 1% 7% 4% ± 3% GPO PC 2025 50.23% 338Canada Popular vote projection | August 7, 2026
Methodology note. This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Niagara West >99%▲ PC <1%▼ OLP <1% NDP Odds of winning | August 7, 2026
Methodology note. These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of simulated elections.

338Canada Ontario Projection | Niagara West

Odds of winning | Niagara West