logo
Ontario

Niagara West


MPP: Oosterhoff, Sam (PCPO)
Latest projection: February 20, 2025
Safe PCPO

Candidates | Niagara West


PC Party of Ontario Sam Oosterhoff
Liberal Party Shauna Boyle
Ontario NDP Dave Augustyn
Green Party Mark Harrison
New Blue Party Aaron Albano
Ontario Party Aaron Allison
Libertarian Party Stefanos Karatopis
Populist Ontario Jim Torma

Candidates listed here are on the Elections Ontario website.

Niagara West 52% ± 9% PCPO 24% ± 8% OLP 13% ± 6% NDP 8% ± 4% GPO PCPO 2022 44.9% 338Canada Popular vote projection | February 20, 2025
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Niagara West >99% PCPO <1% OLP <1% NDP Odds of winning | February 20, 2025
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).


Popular vote projection | Niagara West

OLP 24% ± 8% PCPO 52% ± 9% NDP 13% ± 6% GPO 8% ± 4% Popular vote projection % | Niagara West 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2025-02-01 2025-02-15 2025-03-01 Election 2025 Campaign begins OLP PCPO NDP GPO February 20, 2025 2025-01-27 PCPO 47% OLP 23% NDP 17% GPO 8% 2025-01-27 2025-01-29 PCPO 48% OLP 23% NDP 16% GPO 8% 2025-01-29 2025-01-31 PCPO 51% OLP 22% NDP 16% GPO 8% 2025-01-31 2025-02-02 PCPO 51% OLP 22% NDP 16% GPO 7% 2025-02-02 2025-02-03 PCPO 50% OLP 22% NDP 16% GPO 7% 2025-02-03 2025-02-04 PCPO 51% OLP 23% NDP 15% GPO 7% 2025-02-04 2025-02-05 PCPO 51% OLP 23% NDP 15% GPO 7% 2025-02-05 2025-02-06 PCPO 52% OLP 22% NDP 15% GPO 7% 2025-02-06 2025-02-07 PCPO 52% OLP 22% NDP 15% GPO 7% 2025-02-07 2025-02-08 PCPO 51% OLP 23% NDP 15% GPO 8% 2025-02-08 2025-02-09 PCPO 51% OLP 22% NDP 15% GPO 8% 2025-02-09 2025-02-10 PCPO 51% OLP 23% NDP 15% GPO 8% 2025-02-10 2025-02-11 PCPO 51% OLP 23% NDP 14% GPO 8% 2025-02-11 2025-02-12 PCPO 51% OLP 23% NDP 14% GPO 8% 2025-02-12 2025-02-13 PCPO 51% OLP 23% NDP 14% GPO 8% 2025-02-13 2025-02-14 PCPO 51% OLP 24% NDP 13% GPO 8% 2025-02-14 2025-02-15 PCPO 52% OLP 23% NDP 13% GPO 8% 2025-02-15 2025-02-16 PCPO 52% OLP 23% NDP 13% GPO 8% 2025-02-16 2025-02-17 PCPO 51% OLP 24% NDP 14% GPO 8% 2025-02-17 2025-02-18 PCPO 51% OLP 24% NDP 14% GPO 8% 2025-02-18 2025-02-19 PCPO 52% OLP 24% NDP 13% GPO 8% 2025-02-19 2025-02-20 PCPO 52% OLP 24% NDP 13% GPO 8% 2025-02-20

Odds of winning | Niagara West

OLP <1% PCPO >99% NDP <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2025-02-01 2025-02-15 2025-03-01 Election 2025 Campaign begins OLP PCPO NDP February 20, 2025 2025-01-27 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-01-27 2025-01-29 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-01-29 2025-01-31 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-01-31 2025-02-02 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-02 2025-02-03 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-03 2025-02-04 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-04 2025-02-05 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-05 2025-02-06 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-06 2025-02-07 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-07 2025-02-08 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-08 2025-02-09 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-09 2025-02-10 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-10 2025-02-11 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-11 2025-02-12 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-12 2025-02-13 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-13 2025-02-14 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-14 2025-02-15 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-15 2025-02-16 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-16 2025-02-17 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-17 2025-02-18 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-18 2025-02-19 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-19 2025-02-20 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-20

Recent electoral history | Niagara West



2014 2018 2022 Proj. PCPO 47.8% 52.7% 44.9% 52% ± 9% NDP 19.5% 29.8% 20.7% 13% ± 6% OLP 25.0% 10.7% 19.2% 24% ± 8% GPO 5.8% 5.6% 6.5% 8% ± 4% ONP 0.0% 0.0% 5.3% 2% ± 2% NBPO 0.0% 0.0% 2.6% 1% ± 1%