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Recent electoral history | Kanata—Carleton


2018 2022 2025 Projection OLP 46% ± 10% 17.2% 23.4% 47.7% PC 42% ± 9% 43.6% 43.5% 40.7% NDP 7% ± 4% 28.6% 24.3% 7.3% GPO 2% ± 2% 5.3% 5.5% 2.5% NBPO 1% ± 1% 0.0% 5.5% 1.1% ONP 1% ± 1% 0.0% 0.9% 0.7%

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338Canada Kanata—Carleton projection

Latest update: February 18, 2026

Kanata—Carleton 37% 56% 46% ± 10% OLP 33% 52% 42% ± 9% PC 3% 11% 7% ± 4% NDP OLP 2025 47.67% 338Canada Popular vote projection | February 18, 2026
Methodology note. This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Kanata—Carleton 71%▲ OLP 29%▼ PC <1% NDP Odds of winning | February 18, 2026
Methodology note. These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of simulated elections.


Popular vote projection | Kanata—Carleton

OLP 46% ± 10% PC 42% ± 9% NDP 7% ± 4% Popular vote projection % | Kanata—Carleton 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 2026► 2026-01-01 2026-03-01 2026-05-01 2026-07-01 Election 2025 OLP PC NDP February 18, 2026 2025-01-27 PC 38% OLP 31% NDP 26% 2025-01-27 2025-01-29 PC 38% OLP 31% NDP 25% 2025-01-29 2025-01-31 PC 40% OLP 30% NDP 25% 2025-01-31 2025-02-02 PC 40% OLP 30% NDP 25% 2025-02-02 2025-02-03 PC 40% OLP 31% NDP 25% 2025-02-03 2025-02-04 PC 40% OLP 32% NDP 23% 2025-02-04 2025-02-05 PC 40% OLP 32% NDP 23% 2025-02-05 2025-02-06 PC 41% OLP 31% NDP 23% 2025-02-06 2025-02-07 PC 41% OLP 31% NDP 23% 2025-02-07 2025-02-08 PC 41% OLP 31% NDP 23% 2025-02-08 2025-02-09 PC 41% OLP 31% NDP 24% 2025-02-09 2025-02-10 PC 41% OLP 31% NDP 24% 2025-02-10 2025-02-11 PC 41% OLP 32% NDP 22% 2025-02-11 2025-02-12 PC 41% OLP 32% NDP 22% 2025-02-12 2025-02-13 PC 41% OLP 32% NDP 22% 2025-02-13 2025-02-14 PC 42% OLP 33% NDP 21% 2025-02-14 2025-02-15 PC 42% OLP 33% NDP 21% 2025-02-15 2025-02-16 PC 42% OLP 33% NDP 21% 2025-02-16 2025-02-17 PC 41% OLP 33% NDP 21% 2025-02-17 2025-02-18 PC 41% OLP 33% NDP 21% 2025-02-18 2025-02-19 PC 42% OLP 33% NDP 21% 2025-02-19 2025-02-20 PC 42% OLP 33% NDP 21% 2025-02-20 2025-02-21 PC 42% OLP 33% NDP 21% 2025-02-21 2025-02-22 PC 42% OLP 33% NDP 21% 2025-02-22 2025-02-23 PC 42% OLP 33% NDP 21% 2025-02-23 2025-02-24 PC 40% OLP 34% NDP 21% 2025-02-24 2025-02-25 PC 40% OLP 34% NDP 21% 2025-02-25 2025-02-26 PC 41% OLP 34% NDP 21% 2025-02-26 2025-02-27 PC 41% OLP 34% NDP 21% 2025-02-27 2025-02-28 OLP 48% PC 41% NDP 7% 2025-02-28 2025-06-07 OLP 47% PC 41% NDP 7% 2025-06-07 2025-06-27 OLP 48% PC 41% NDP 7% 2025-06-27 2025-07-27 OLP 47% PC 42% NDP 7% 2025-07-27 2025-08-31 OLP 45% PC 45% NDP 6% 2025-08-31 2025-10-21 OLP 46% PC 45% NDP 6% 2025-10-21 2025-11-23 OLP 45% PC 44% NDP 6% 2025-11-23 2025-12-20 OLP 46% PC 43% NDP 7% 2025-12-20 2026-01-25 OLP 46% PC 43% NDP 7% 2026-01-25 2026-02-18 OLP 46% PC 42% NDP 7% 2026-02-18

Odds of winning | Kanata—Carleton

OLP 71% PC 29% NDP <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 2026► 2026-01-01 2026-03-01 2026-05-01 2026-07-01 Election 2025 OLP PC NDP February 18, 2026 2025-01-27 PC 86% OLP 13% NDP 1% 2025-01-27 2025-01-29 PC 88% OLP 12% NDP <1% 2025-01-29 2025-01-31 PC 95% OLP 5% NDP <1% 2025-01-31 2025-02-02 PC 96% OLP 4% NDP <1% 2025-02-02 2025-02-03 PC 94% OLP 6% NDP <1% 2025-02-03 2025-02-04 PC 94% OLP 6% NDP <1% 2025-02-04 2025-02-05 PC 94% OLP 6% NDP <1% 2025-02-05 2025-02-06 PC 96% OLP 4% NDP <1% 2025-02-06 2025-02-07 PC 96% OLP 4% NDP <1% 2025-02-07 2025-02-08 PC 95% OLP 5% NDP <1% 2025-02-08 2025-02-09 PC 97% OLP 3% NDP <1% 2025-02-09 2025-02-10 PC 96% OLP 4% NDP <1% 2025-02-10 2025-02-11 PC 95% OLP 5% NDP <1% 2025-02-11 2025-02-12 PC 95% OLP 5% NDP <1% 2025-02-12 2025-02-13 PC 95% OLP 5% NDP <1% 2025-02-13 2025-02-14 PC 94% OLP 6% NDP <1% 2025-02-14 2025-02-15 PC 96% OLP 4% NDP <1% 2025-02-15 2025-02-16 PC 96% OLP 4% NDP <1% 2025-02-16 2025-02-17 PC 92% OLP 8% NDP <1% 2025-02-17 2025-02-18 PC 91% OLP 9% NDP <1% 2025-02-18 2025-02-19 PC 94% OLP 6% NDP <1% 2025-02-19 2025-02-20 PC 95% OLP 5% NDP <1% 2025-02-20 2025-02-21 PC 94% OLP 6% NDP <1% 2025-02-21 2025-02-22 PC 95% OLP 5% NDP <1% 2025-02-22 2025-02-23 PC 95% OLP 5% NDP <1% 2025-02-23 2025-02-24 PC 86% OLP 14% NDP <1% 2025-02-24 2025-02-25 PC 86% OLP 14% NDP <1% 2025-02-25 2025-02-26 PC 88% OLP 12% NDP <1% 2025-02-26 2025-02-27 PC 87% OLP 13% NDP <1% 2025-02-27 2025-02-28 OLP 96% PC 4% NDP <1% 2025-02-28 2025-06-07 OLP 84% PC 16% NDP <1% 2025-06-07 2025-06-27 OLP 85% PC 15% NDP <1% 2025-06-27 2025-07-27 OLP 79% PC 21% NDP <1% 2025-07-27 2025-08-31 OLP 52% PC 48% NDP <1% 2025-08-31 2025-10-21 OLP 56% PC 44% NDP <1% 2025-10-21 2025-11-23 OLP 55% PC 45% NDP <1% 2025-11-23 2025-12-20 OLP 66% PC 34% NDP <1% 2025-12-20 2026-01-25 OLP 67% PC 33% NDP <1% 2026-01-25 2026-02-18 OLP 71% PC 29% NDP <1% 2026-02-18