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Ontario

Kanata—Carleton


MPP: Karen McCrimmon (OLP)
Latest projection: February 20, 2025
Likely PCPO

Candidates | Kanata—Carleton


PC Party of Ontario Scott Phelan
Liberal Party Karen Mccrimmon
Ontario NDP Dave Belcher
Green Party Jennifer Purdy
New Blue Party Elizabeth Watson
Ontario Party Frank Jakubowski

Candidates listed here are on the Elections Ontario website.

Kanata—Carleton 42% ± 9% PCPO 33% ± 8% OLP 21% ± 7% NDP PCPO 2022 43.5% 338Canada Popular vote projection | February 20, 2025
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Kanata—Carleton 95%▲ PCPO 5%▼ OLP <1% NDP Odds of winning | February 20, 2025
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).


Popular vote projection | Kanata—Carleton

OLP 33% ± 8% PCPO 42% ± 9% NDP 21% ± 7% GPO 3% ± 3% Popular vote projection % | Kanata—Carleton 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2025-02-01 2025-02-15 2025-03-01 Election 2025 Campaign begins OLP PCPO NDP GPO February 20, 2025 2025-01-27 PCPO 38% OLP 31% NDP 26% GPO 4% 2025-01-27 2025-01-29 PCPO 38% OLP 31% NDP 25% GPO 4% 2025-01-29 2025-01-31 PCPO 40% OLP 30% NDP 25% GPO 3% 2025-01-31 2025-02-02 PCPO 40% OLP 30% NDP 25% GPO 3% 2025-02-02 2025-02-03 PCPO 40% OLP 31% NDP 25% GPO 3% 2025-02-03 2025-02-04 PCPO 40% OLP 32% NDP 23% GPO 3% 2025-02-04 2025-02-05 PCPO 40% OLP 32% NDP 23% GPO 3% 2025-02-05 2025-02-06 PCPO 41% OLP 31% NDP 23% GPO 3% 2025-02-06 2025-02-07 PCPO 41% OLP 31% NDP 23% GPO 3% 2025-02-07 2025-02-08 PCPO 41% OLP 31% NDP 23% GPO 3% 2025-02-08 2025-02-09 PCPO 41% OLP 31% NDP 24% GPO 3% 2025-02-09 2025-02-10 PCPO 41% OLP 31% NDP 24% GPO 3% 2025-02-10 2025-02-11 PCPO 41% OLP 32% NDP 22% GPO 3% 2025-02-11 2025-02-12 PCPO 41% OLP 32% NDP 22% GPO 3% 2025-02-12 2025-02-13 PCPO 41% OLP 32% NDP 22% GPO 3% 2025-02-13 2025-02-14 PCPO 42% OLP 33% NDP 21% GPO 3% 2025-02-14 2025-02-15 PCPO 42% OLP 33% NDP 21% GPO 3% 2025-02-15 2025-02-16 PCPO 42% OLP 33% NDP 21% GPO 3% 2025-02-16 2025-02-17 PCPO 41% OLP 33% NDP 21% GPO 3% 2025-02-17 2025-02-18 PCPO 41% OLP 33% NDP 21% GPO 3% 2025-02-18 2025-02-19 PCPO 42% OLP 33% NDP 21% GPO 3% 2025-02-19 2025-02-20 PCPO 42% OLP 33% NDP 21% GPO 3% 2025-02-20

Odds of winning | Kanata—Carleton

OLP 5% PCPO 95% NDP <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2025-02-01 2025-02-15 2025-03-01 Election 2025 Campaign begins OLP PCPO NDP February 20, 2025 2025-01-27 PCPO 86% OLP 13% NDP 1% 2025-01-27 2025-01-29 PCPO 88% OLP 12% NDP <1% 2025-01-29 2025-01-31 PCPO 95% OLP 5% NDP <1% 2025-01-31 2025-02-02 PCPO 96% OLP 4% NDP <1% 2025-02-02 2025-02-03 PCPO 94% OLP 6% NDP <1% 2025-02-03 2025-02-04 PCPO 94% OLP 6% NDP <1% 2025-02-04 2025-02-05 PCPO 94% OLP 6% NDP <1% 2025-02-05 2025-02-06 PCPO 96% OLP 4% NDP <1% 2025-02-06 2025-02-07 PCPO 96% OLP 4% NDP <1% 2025-02-07 2025-02-08 PCPO 95% OLP 5% NDP <1% 2025-02-08 2025-02-09 PCPO 97% OLP 3% NDP <1% 2025-02-09 2025-02-10 PCPO 96% OLP 4% NDP <1% 2025-02-10 2025-02-11 PCPO 95% OLP 5% NDP <1% 2025-02-11 2025-02-12 PCPO 95% OLP 5% NDP <1% 2025-02-12 2025-02-13 PCPO 95% OLP 5% NDP <1% 2025-02-13 2025-02-14 PCPO 94% OLP 6% NDP <1% 2025-02-14 2025-02-15 PCPO 96% OLP 4% NDP <1% 2025-02-15 2025-02-16 PCPO 96% OLP 4% NDP <1% 2025-02-16 2025-02-17 PCPO 92% OLP 8% NDP <1% 2025-02-17 2025-02-18 PCPO 91% OLP 9% NDP <1% 2025-02-18 2025-02-19 PCPO 94% OLP 6% NDP <1% 2025-02-19 2025-02-20 PCPO 95% OLP 5% NDP <1% 2025-02-20

Recent electoral history | Kanata—Carleton



2014 2018 2022 Proj. PCPO 45.6% 43.6% 43.5% 42% ± 9% NDP 14.0% 28.6% 24.3% 21% ± 7% OLP 33.4% 17.2% 23.4% 33% ± 8% GPO 7.1% 5.3% 5.5% 3% ± 3% NBPO 0.0% 0.0% 5.5% 1% ± 1% ONP 0.0% 0.0% 0.9% 0% ± 1%