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Ontario

Kanata—Carleton


MPP: Karen McCrimmon (OLP)

Latest projection: December 15, 2024
Likely PCPO
Kanata—Carleton 43% ± 9%▲ PCPO 31% ± 8% OLP 23% ± 7% NDP PCPO 2022 43.5% 338Canada Popular vote projection | December 15, 2024
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Kanata—Carleton 98% PCPO 2% OLP <1% NDP Odds of winning | December 15, 2024
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).


Popular vote projection | Kanata—Carleton

OLP 31% ± 8% PCPO 43% ± 9% NDP 23% ± 7% Popular vote projection % | Kanata—Carleton 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2022-05-01 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 2025-09-01 Election 2022 OLP PCPO NDP December 15, 2024 2022-04-30 PCPO 43% OLP 28% NDP 16% 2022-04-30 2022-05-03 PCPO 41% OLP 28% NDP 19% 2022-05-03 2022-05-04 PCPO 41% OLP 28% NDP 19% 2022-05-04 2022-05-05 PCPO 41% OLP 28% NDP 19% 2022-05-05 2022-05-06 PCPO 41% OLP 28% NDP 19% 2022-05-06 2022-05-07 PCPO 40% OLP 28% NDP 20% 2022-05-07 2022-05-08 PCPO 40% OLP 28% NDP 20% 2022-05-08 2022-05-09 PCPO 40% OLP 29% NDP 19% 2022-05-09 2022-05-10 PCPO 40% OLP 29% NDP 19% 2022-05-10 2022-05-11 PCPO 41% OLP 28% NDP 19% 2022-05-11 2022-05-12 PCPO 41% OLP 28% NDP 19% 2022-05-12 2022-05-13 PCPO 41% OLP 28% NDP 19% 2022-05-13 2022-05-14 PCPO 43% OLP 29% NDP 19% 2022-05-14 2022-05-15 PCPO 43% OLP 28% NDP 20% 2022-05-15 2022-05-16 PCPO 42% OLP 29% NDP 20% 2022-05-16 2022-05-17 PCPO 42% OLP 30% NDP 19% 2022-05-17 2022-05-18 PCPO 42% OLP 29% NDP 19% 2022-05-18 2022-05-19 PCPO 41% OLP 29% NDP 19% 2022-05-19 2022-05-20 PCPO 41% OLP 28% NDP 20% 2022-05-20 2022-05-21 PCPO 41% OLP 28% NDP 20% 2022-05-21 2022-05-22 PCPO 40% OLP 28% NDP 20% 2022-05-22 2022-05-23 PCPO 41% OLP 28% NDP 19% 2022-05-23 2022-05-24 PCPO 41% OLP 28% NDP 19% 2022-05-24 2022-05-25 PCPO 41% OLP 28% NDP 19% 2022-05-25 2022-05-26 PCPO 41% OLP 28% NDP 19% 2022-05-26 2022-05-27 PCPO 41% OLP 27% NDP 20% 2022-05-27 2022-05-28 PCPO 42% OLP 27% NDP 19% 2022-05-28 2022-05-29 PCPO 42% OLP 27% NDP 19% 2022-05-29 2022-05-30 PCPO 42% OLP 27% NDP 19% 2022-05-30 2022-05-31 PCPO 43% OLP 27% NDP 18% 2022-05-31 2022-06-01 PCPO 45% OLP 26% NDP 18% 2022-06-01 2022-06-03 PCPO 42% NDP 24% OLP 23% 2022-06-03 2022-12-30 PCPO 42% NDP 24% OLP 23% 2022-12-30 2023-02-15 PCPO 42% OLP 23% NDP 22% 2023-02-15 2023-03-09 PCPO 42% OLP 24% NDP 22% 2023-03-09 2023-03-17 PCPO 42% OLP 24% NDP 22% 2023-03-17 2023-04-16 PCPO 42% OLP 23% NDP 23% 2023-04-16 2023-07-07 PCPO 38% NDP 24% OLP 23% 2023-07-07 2023-07-22 PCPO 36% OLP 30% NDP 19% 2023-07-22 2023-07-28 OLP 34% PCPO 32% NDP 29% 2023-07-28 2023-08-26 OLP 34% PCPO 32% NDP 29% 2023-08-26 2023-10-07 OLP 35% PCPO 30% NDP 29% 2023-10-07 2023-10-23 OLP 34% PCPO 32% NDP 29% 2023-10-23 2023-12-01 PCPO 34% OLP 33% NDP 29% 2023-12-01 2023-12-20 OLP 35% PCPO 33% NDP 28% 2023-12-20 2024-02-02 OLP 36% PCPO 33% NDP 27% 2024-02-02 2024-02-20 OLP 39% PCPO 31% NDP 27% 2024-02-20 2024-03-05 PCPO 38% OLP 35% NDP 24% 2024-03-05 2024-04-04 PCPO 38% OLP 33% NDP 25% 2024-04-04 2024-05-03 PCPO 41% OLP 32% NDP 24% 2024-05-03 2024-06-30 PCPO 42% OLP 31% NDP 24% 2024-06-30 2024-07-29 PCPO 43% OLP 30% NDP 22% 2024-07-29 2024-10-09 PCPO 42% OLP 31% NDP 23% 2024-10-09 2024-11-11 PCPO 42% OLP 31% NDP 23% 2024-11-11 2024-12-15 PCPO 43% OLP 31% NDP 23% 2024-12-15

Odds of winning | Kanata—Carleton

OLP 2% PCPO 98% NDP <1% GPO <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2022-05-01 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 2025-09-01 Election 2022 OLP PCPO NDP GPO December 15, 2024 2022-04-30 PCPO 99% OLP 1% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2022-04-30 2022-05-03 PCPO 99% OLP 1% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2022-05-03 2022-05-04 PCPO 99% OLP 1% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2022-05-04 2022-05-05 PCPO 99% OLP 1% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2022-05-05 2022-05-06 PCPO 99% OLP 1% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2022-05-06 2022-05-07 PCPO 99% OLP 1% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2022-05-07 2022-05-08 PCPO 99% OLP 1% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2022-05-08 2022-05-09 PCPO 98% OLP 2% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2022-05-09 2022-05-10 PCPO 97% OLP 3% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2022-05-10 2022-05-11 PCPO 99% OLP 1% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2022-05-11 2022-05-12 PCPO 99% OLP 1% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2022-05-12 2022-05-13 PCPO 99% OLP 1% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2022-05-13 2022-05-14 PCPO 99% OLP 1% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2022-05-14 2022-05-15 PCPO >99% OLP <1% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2022-05-15 2022-05-16 PCPO 99% OLP 1% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2022-05-16 2022-05-17 PCPO 99% OLP 1% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2022-05-17 2022-05-18 PCPO 99% OLP 1% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2022-05-18 2022-05-19 PCPO 99% OLP 1% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2022-05-19 2022-05-20 PCPO 99% OLP 1% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2022-05-20 2022-05-21 PCPO 99% OLP 1% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2022-05-21 2022-05-22 PCPO 99% OLP 1% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2022-05-22 2022-05-23 PCPO 99% OLP 1% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2022-05-23 2022-05-24 PCPO 99% OLP 1% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2022-05-24 2022-05-25 PCPO 99% OLP 1% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2022-05-25 2022-05-26 PCPO >99% OLP <1% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2022-05-26 2022-05-27 PCPO >99% OLP <1% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2022-05-27 2022-05-28 PCPO >99% OLP <1% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2022-05-28 2022-05-29 PCPO >99% OLP <1% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2022-05-29 2022-05-30 PCPO >99% OLP <1% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2022-05-30 2022-05-31 PCPO >99% OLP <1% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2022-05-31 2022-06-01 PCPO >99% OLP <1% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2022-06-01 2022-06-03 PCPO >99% GPO <1% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2022-06-03 2022-12-30 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% GPO <1% 2022-12-30 2023-02-15 PCPO >99% OLP <1% NDP <1% GPO <1% 2023-02-15 2023-03-09 PCPO >99% OLP <1% NDP <1% GPO <1% 2023-03-09 2023-03-17 PCPO >99% OLP <1% NDP <1% GPO <1% 2023-03-17 2023-04-16 PCPO >99% OLP <1% NDP <1% GPO <1% 2023-04-16 2023-07-07 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% GPO <1% 2023-07-07 2023-07-22 PCPO 88% OLP 12% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2023-07-22 2023-07-28 OLP 60% PCPO 32% NDP 8% GPO <1% 2023-07-28 2023-08-26 OLP 59% PCPO 35% NDP 7% GPO <1% 2023-08-26 2023-10-07 OLP 78% PCPO 13% NDP 9% GPO <1% 2023-10-07 2023-10-23 OLP 57% PCPO 33% NDP 10% GPO <1% 2023-10-23 2023-12-01 PCPO 58% OLP 36% NDP 6% GPO <1% 2023-12-01 2023-12-20 OLP 62% PCPO 35% NDP 4% GPO <1% 2023-12-20 2024-02-02 OLP 69% PCPO 29% NDP 2% GPO <1% 2024-02-02 2024-02-20 OLP 93% PCPO 6% NDP 1% GPO <1% 2024-02-20 2024-03-05 PCPO 70% OLP 30% NDP <1% GPO <1% 2024-03-05 2024-04-04 PCPO 81% OLP 19% NDP <1% GPO <1% 2024-04-04 2024-05-03 PCPO 94% OLP 6% NDP <1% GPO <1% 2024-05-03 2024-06-30 PCPO 98% OLP 2% NDP <1% GPO <1% 2024-06-30 2024-07-29 PCPO 99% OLP 1% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2024-07-29 2024-10-09 PCPO 98% OLP 2% NDP <1% GPO <1% 2024-10-09 2024-11-11 PCPO 98% OLP 2% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2024-11-11 2024-12-15 PCPO 98% OLP 2% NDP <1% GPO <1% 2024-12-15

Recent electoral history | Kanata—Carleton



2014 2018 2022 Proj. PCPO 45.6% 43.6% 43.5% 43% ± 9% NDP 14.0% 28.6% 24.3% 23% ± 7% OLP 33.4% 17.2% 23.4% 31% ± 8% GPO 7.1% 5.3% 5.5% 2% ± 2% NBPO 0.0% 0.0% 5.5% 1% ± 1% ONP 0.0% 0.0% 0.9% 0% ± 1%