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Ontario

Kitchener—Conestoga


MPP: Harris, Mike (PCPO)
Latest projection: February 20, 2025
Safe PCPO

Candidates | Kitchener—Conestoga


PC Party of Ontario Mike Harris
Liberal Party Joe Gowing
Ontario NDP Jodi Szimanski
Green Party Brayden Wagenaar
New Blue Party Jim Karahalios
Ontario Party Patrick Doucette

Candidates listed here are on the Elections Ontario website.

Kitchener—Conestoga 46% ± 9% PCPO 22% ± 7% OLP 20% ± 7% NDP 9% ± 5% GPO PCPO 2022 40.0% 338Canada Popular vote projection | February 20, 2025
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Kitchener—Conestoga >99% PCPO <1% OLP <1% NDP Odds of winning | February 20, 2025
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).


Popular vote projection | Kitchener—Conestoga

OLP 22% ± 7% PCPO 46% ± 9% NDP 20% ± 7% GPO 9% ± 5% Popular vote projection % | Kitchener—Conestoga 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2025-02-01 2025-02-15 2025-03-01 Election 2025 Campaign begins OLP PCPO NDP GPO February 20, 2025 2025-01-27 PCPO 41% NDP 25% OLP 21% GPO 9% 2025-01-27 2025-01-29 PCPO 41% NDP 24% OLP 21% GPO 10% 2025-01-29 2025-01-31 PCPO 44% NDP 24% OLP 20% GPO 9% 2025-01-31 2025-02-02 PCPO 44% NDP 24% OLP 20% GPO 9% 2025-02-02 2025-02-03 PCPO 44% NDP 24% OLP 21% GPO 9% 2025-02-03 2025-02-04 PCPO 44% NDP 22% OLP 21% GPO 9% 2025-02-04 2025-02-05 PCPO 44% NDP 22% OLP 21% GPO 9% 2025-02-05 2025-02-06 PCPO 45% NDP 22% OLP 21% GPO 9% 2025-02-06 2025-02-07 PCPO 45% NDP 22% OLP 21% GPO 9% 2025-02-07 2025-02-08 PCPO 45% NDP 22% OLP 21% GPO 9% 2025-02-08 2025-02-09 PCPO 45% NDP 22% OLP 21% GPO 9% 2025-02-09 2025-02-10 PCPO 45% NDP 22% OLP 21% GPO 9% 2025-02-10 2025-02-11 PCPO 45% OLP 21% NDP 21% GPO 9% 2025-02-11 2025-02-12 PCPO 45% OLP 22% NDP 20% GPO 9% 2025-02-12 2025-02-13 PCPO 46% OLP 22% NDP 20% GPO 9% 2025-02-13 2025-02-14 PCPO 46% OLP 22% NDP 20% GPO 9% 2025-02-14 2025-02-15 PCPO 46% OLP 22% NDP 20% GPO 9% 2025-02-15 2025-02-16 PCPO 46% OLP 22% NDP 20% GPO 9% 2025-02-16 2025-02-17 PCPO 45% OLP 23% NDP 20% GPO 9% 2025-02-17 2025-02-18 PCPO 45% OLP 23% NDP 20% GPO 9% 2025-02-18 2025-02-19 PCPO 46% OLP 22% NDP 20% GPO 9% 2025-02-19 2025-02-20 PCPO 46% OLP 22% NDP 20% GPO 9% 2025-02-20

Odds of winning | Kitchener—Conestoga

OLP <1% PCPO >99% NDP <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2025-02-01 2025-02-15 2025-03-01 Election 2025 Campaign begins OLP PCPO NDP February 20, 2025 2025-01-27 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-01-27 2025-01-29 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-01-29 2025-01-31 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-01-31 2025-02-02 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-02 2025-02-03 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-03 2025-02-04 PCPO >99% OLP <1% NDP <1% 2025-02-04 2025-02-05 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-05 2025-02-06 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-06 2025-02-07 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-07 2025-02-08 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-08 2025-02-09 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-09 2025-02-10 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-10 2025-02-11 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-11 2025-02-12 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-12 2025-02-13 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-13 2025-02-14 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-14 2025-02-15 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-15 2025-02-16 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-16 2025-02-17 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-17 2025-02-18 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-18 2025-02-19 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-19 2025-02-20 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-20

Recent electoral history | Kitchener—Conestoga



2014 2018 2022 Proj. PCPO 36.7% 39.6% 40.0% 46% ± 9% NDP 20.7% 38.0% 28.9% 20% ± 7% OLP 34.3% 14.1% 17.5% 22% ± 7% GPO 6.5% 6.5% 6.2% 9% ± 5% NBPO 0.0% 0.0% 5.9% 3% ± 2% ONP 0.0% 0.0% 1.3% 1% ± 1%