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Stormont—Dundas—South Glengarry


MPP: Quinn, Nolan (PCPO)


Latest projection: December 1, 2023

Safe PCPO
Stormont—Dundas—South Glengarry 56% ± 9%▲ 18% ± 6%▼ 15% ± 6% 6% ± 4% 3% ± 3%▼ PCPO 2022 57.5% 338Canada Popular vote projection | December 1, 2023
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by profesional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.

50% 100% Stormont—Dundas—South Glengarry >99% <1% <1% Odds of winning | December 1, 2023
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).


Popular vote projection | Stormont—Dundas—South Glengarry

OLP 18% ± 6% PCPO 56% ± 9% NDP 15% ± 6% GPO 6% ± 4% Popular vote projection % | Stormont—Dundas—South Glengarry 65 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2022-07-01 2022-10-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-04-01 2023-07-01 2023-10-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-04-01 2024-07-01 Election 2022 OLP PCPO NDP GPO

Odds of winning | Stormont—Dundas—South Glengarry

OLP <1% PCPO >99% NDP <1% GPO <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2022-07-01 2022-10-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-04-01 2023-07-01 2023-10-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-04-01 2024-07-01 Election 2022 OLP PCPO NDP GPO

Recent electoral history | Stormont—Dundas—South Glengarry



2014 2018 2022 Proj. PCPO 51.7% 61.5% 57.5% 56% ± 9% OLP 23.2% 12.4% 17.9% 18% ± 6% NDP 20.9% 21.6% 13.8% 15% ± 6% NBPO 0.0% 0.0% 4.3% 3% ± 3% GPO 2.7% 3.7% 4.1% 6% ± 4% ONP 0.0% 0.0% 2.5% 2% ± 2%