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Ontario

Stormont—Dundas—South Glengarry


MPP: Quinn, Nolan (PCPO)

Latest projection: January 20, 2025
Safe PCPO
Stormont—Dundas—South Glengarry 56% ± 9%▼ PCPO 21% ± 7%▲ OLP 14% ± 6% NDP 5% ± 3%▼ GPO 3% ± 2%▲ NBPO PCPO 2022 57.5% 338Canada Popular vote projection | January 20, 2025
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Stormont—Dundas—South Glengarry >99% PCPO <1% OLP <1% NDP Odds of winning | January 20, 2025
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).


Popular vote projection | Stormont—Dundas—South Glengarry

OLP 21% ± 7% PCPO 56% ± 9% NDP 14% ± 6% GPO 5% ± 3% Popular vote projection % | Stormont—Dundas—South Glengarry 65 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 2025-09-01 OLP PCPO NDP GPO January 20, 2025 2023-02-15 PCPO 57% OLP 18% NDP 13% GPO 5% 2023-02-15 2023-03-09 PCPO 56% OLP 19% NDP 13% GPO 5% 2023-03-09 2023-03-17 PCPO 57% OLP 19% NDP 13% GPO 5% 2023-03-17 2023-04-16 PCPO 57% OLP 18% NDP 13% GPO 5% 2023-04-16 2023-07-07 PCPO 52% OLP 19% NDP 15% GPO 7% 2023-07-07 2023-07-22 PCPO 52% OLP 19% NDP 15% GPO 6% 2023-07-22 2023-07-28 PCPO 53% OLP 19% NDP 15% GPO 6% 2023-07-28 2023-08-26 PCPO 53% OLP 19% NDP 15% GPO 6% 2023-08-26 2023-10-07 PCPO 51% OLP 20% NDP 15% GPO 6% 2023-10-07 2023-10-23 PCPO 53% OLP 19% NDP 15% GPO 6% 2023-10-23 2023-12-01 PCPO 56% OLP 18% NDP 15% GPO 6% 2023-12-01 2023-12-20 PCPO 55% OLP 20% NDP 14% GPO 5% 2023-12-20 2024-02-02 PCPO 55% OLP 20% NDP 14% GPO 5% 2024-02-02 2024-02-20 PCPO 52% OLP 23% NDP 14% GPO 6% 2024-02-20 2024-03-05 PCPO 53% OLP 22% NDP 13% GPO 6% 2024-03-05 2024-04-04 PCPO 54% OLP 21% NDP 14% GPO 6% 2024-04-04 2024-05-03 PCPO 55% OLP 20% NDP 14% GPO 6% 2024-05-03 2024-06-30 PCPO 56% OLP 19% NDP 14% GPO 6% 2024-06-30 2024-07-29 PCPO 57% OLP 19% NDP 13% GPO 6% 2024-07-29 2024-10-09 PCPO 56% OLP 19% NDP 13% GPO 6% 2024-10-09 2024-11-11 PCPO 56% OLP 19% NDP 13% GPO 6% 2024-11-11 2024-12-15 PCPO 58% OLP 19% NDP 14% GPO 6% 2024-12-15 2025-01-20 PCPO 56% OLP 21% NDP 14% GPO 5% 2025-01-20 ▼ Stiles NDP leader ▼ Crombie OLP leader

Odds of winning | Stormont—Dundas—South Glengarry

OLP <1% PCPO >99% NDP <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 2025-09-01 OLP PCPO NDP January 20, 2025 2023-02-15 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2023-02-15 2023-03-09 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2023-03-09 2023-03-17 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2023-03-17 2023-04-16 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2023-04-16 2023-07-07 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2023-07-07 2023-07-22 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2023-07-22 2023-07-28 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2023-07-28 2023-08-26 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2023-08-26 2023-10-07 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2023-10-07 2023-10-23 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2023-10-23 2023-12-01 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2023-12-01 2023-12-20 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2023-12-20 2024-02-02 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2024-02-02 2024-02-20 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2024-02-20 2024-03-05 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2024-03-05 2024-04-04 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2024-04-04 2024-05-03 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2024-05-03 2024-06-30 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2024-06-30 2024-07-29 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2024-07-29 2024-10-09 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2024-10-09 2024-11-11 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2024-11-11 2024-12-15 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2024-12-15 2025-01-20 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-01-20 ▼ Stiles NDP leader ▼ Crombie OLP leader

Recent electoral history | Stormont—Dundas—South Glengarry



2014 2018 2022 Proj. PCPO 51.7% 61.5% 57.5% 56% ± 9% OLP 23.2% 12.4% 17.9% 21% ± 7% NDP 20.9% 21.6% 13.8% 14% ± 6% NBPO 0.0% 0.0% 4.3% 3% ± 2% GPO 2.7% 3.7% 4.1% 5% ± 3% ONP 0.0% 0.0% 2.5% 1% ± 2%