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Ontario

Stormont—Dundas—South Glengarry


MPP: Quinn, Nolan (PCPO)
Latest projection: February 20, 2025
Safe PCPO

Candidates | Stormont—Dundas—South Glengarry


PC Party of Ontario Nolan Quinn
Liberal Party Devon Monkhouse
Ontario NDP Jeremy Rose
Green Party Nicholas Lapierre
New Blue Party Stefan Kohut
Ontario Party Brigitte Sugrue

Candidates listed here are on the Elections Ontario website.

Stormont—Dundas—South Glengarry 63% ± 9%▲ PCPO 20% ± 7% OLP 10% ± 5% NDP 5% ± 3% GPO PCPO 2022 57.5% 338Canada Popular vote projection | February 20, 2025
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Stormont—Dundas—South Glengarry >99% PCPO <1% OLP <1% NDP Odds of winning | February 20, 2025
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).


Popular vote projection | Stormont—Dundas—South Glengarry

OLP 20% ± 7% PCPO 63% ± 9% NDP 10% ± 5% GPO 5% ± 3% Popular vote projection % | Stormont—Dundas—South Glengarry 70 65 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2025-02-01 2025-02-15 2025-03-01 Election 2025 Campaign begins OLP PCPO NDP GPO February 20, 2025 2025-01-27 PCPO 58% OLP 19% NDP 13% GPO 5% 2025-01-27 2025-01-29 PCPO 59% OLP 19% NDP 13% GPO 5% 2025-01-29 2025-01-31 PCPO 61% OLP 18% NDP 13% GPO 5% 2025-01-31 2025-02-02 PCPO 62% OLP 18% NDP 13% GPO 5% 2025-02-02 2025-02-03 PCPO 61% OLP 19% NDP 13% GPO 5% 2025-02-03 2025-02-04 PCPO 61% OLP 19% NDP 12% GPO 5% 2025-02-04 2025-02-05 PCPO 61% OLP 19% NDP 12% GPO 5% 2025-02-05 2025-02-06 PCPO 62% OLP 19% NDP 11% GPO 5% 2025-02-06 2025-02-07 PCPO 62% OLP 19% NDP 12% GPO 5% 2025-02-07 2025-02-08 PCPO 62% OLP 19% NDP 12% GPO 5% 2025-02-08 2025-02-09 PCPO 62% OLP 19% NDP 12% GPO 5% 2025-02-09 2025-02-10 PCPO 62% OLP 19% NDP 12% GPO 5% 2025-02-10 2025-02-11 PCPO 62% OLP 19% NDP 11% GPO 5% 2025-02-11 2025-02-12 PCPO 62% OLP 19% NDP 11% GPO 5% 2025-02-12 2025-02-13 PCPO 62% OLP 19% NDP 11% GPO 5% 2025-02-13 2025-02-14 PCPO 62% OLP 20% NDP 10% GPO 5% 2025-02-14 2025-02-15 PCPO 63% OLP 20% NDP 10% GPO 5% 2025-02-15 2025-02-16 PCPO 63% OLP 20% NDP 10% GPO 5% 2025-02-16 2025-02-17 PCPO 62% OLP 20% NDP 10% GPO 5% 2025-02-17 2025-02-18 PCPO 62% OLP 20% NDP 10% GPO 5% 2025-02-18 2025-02-19 PCPO 62% OLP 20% NDP 10% GPO 5% 2025-02-19 2025-02-20 PCPO 63% OLP 20% NDP 10% GPO 5% 2025-02-20

Odds of winning | Stormont—Dundas—South Glengarry

OLP <1% PCPO >99% NDP <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2025-02-01 2025-02-15 2025-03-01 Election 2025 Campaign begins OLP PCPO NDP February 20, 2025 2025-01-27 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-01-27 2025-01-29 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-01-29 2025-01-31 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-01-31 2025-02-02 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-02 2025-02-03 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-03 2025-02-04 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-04 2025-02-05 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-05 2025-02-06 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-06 2025-02-07 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-07 2025-02-08 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-08 2025-02-09 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-09 2025-02-10 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-10 2025-02-11 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-11 2025-02-12 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-12 2025-02-13 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-13 2025-02-14 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-14 2025-02-15 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-15 2025-02-16 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-16 2025-02-17 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-17 2025-02-18 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-18 2025-02-19 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-19 2025-02-20 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-20

Recent electoral history | Stormont—Dundas—South Glengarry



2014 2018 2022 Proj. PCPO 51.7% 61.5% 57.5% 63% ± 9% OLP 23.2% 12.4% 17.9% 20% ± 7% NDP 20.9% 21.6% 13.8% 10% ± 5% NBPO 0.0% 0.0% 4.3% 2% ± 2% GPO 2.7% 3.7% 4.1% 5% ± 3% ONP 0.0% 0.0% 2.5% 1% ± 1%