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Ontario

Oxford


MPP elect: Ernie Hardeman (PCPO)
Latest projection: February 28, 2025
Safe PCPO

Candidates | Oxford


PC Party of Ontario Ernie Hardeman
Liberal Party Bernia Martin
Ontario NDP Khadijah Haliru
Green Party Colton Kaufman
New Blue Party Peter Beimers
Ontario Party Grace Harper
Libertarian Party Henryk Szymczyszyn

Candidates listed here are on the Elections Ontario website.

Oxford 55% ± 0%▼ PCPO 23% ± 0%▲ OLP 11% ± 0%▼ NDP 4% ± 0%▼ GPO PCPO 2022 50.0% 338Canada Popular vote projection | February 28, 2025
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Oxford >99% PCPO <1% OLP <1% NDP Odds of winning | February 28, 2025
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).


Popular vote projection | Oxford

OLP 23% ± 0% PCPO 55% ± 0% NDP 11% ± 0% GPO 4% ± 0% Popular vote projection % | Oxford 65 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2025-02-01 2025-02-15 2025-03-01 Election 2025 Campaign begins OLP PCPO NDP GPO February 28, 2025 2025-01-27 PCPO 52% NDP 19% OLP 15% GPO 6% 2025-01-27 2025-01-29 PCPO 53% NDP 19% OLP 15% GPO 6% 2025-01-29 2025-01-31 PCPO 56% NDP 18% OLP 14% GPO 6% 2025-01-31 2025-02-02 PCPO 56% NDP 18% OLP 14% GPO 6% 2025-02-02 2025-02-03 PCPO 56% NDP 18% OLP 15% GPO 6% 2025-02-03 2025-02-04 PCPO 57% NDP 17% OLP 15% GPO 6% 2025-02-04 2025-02-05 PCPO 57% NDP 17% OLP 15% GPO 6% 2025-02-05 2025-02-06 PCPO 57% NDP 17% OLP 15% GPO 6% 2025-02-06 2025-02-07 PCPO 57% NDP 17% OLP 15% GPO 6% 2025-02-07 2025-02-08 PCPO 57% NDP 17% OLP 15% GPO 6% 2025-02-08 2025-02-09 PCPO 57% NDP 17% OLP 15% GPO 6% 2025-02-09 2025-02-10 PCPO 57% NDP 17% OLP 15% GPO 6% 2025-02-10 2025-02-11 PCPO 57% NDP 16% OLP 15% GPO 6% 2025-02-11 2025-02-12 PCPO 58% NDP 16% OLP 15% GPO 6% 2025-02-12 2025-02-13 PCPO 58% NDP 16% OLP 16% GPO 6% 2025-02-13 2025-02-14 PCPO 58% OLP 16% NDP 15% GPO 6% 2025-02-14 2025-02-15 PCPO 58% OLP 16% NDP 15% GPO 6% 2025-02-15 2025-02-16 PCPO 58% OLP 16% NDP 15% GPO 6% 2025-02-16 2025-02-17 PCPO 57% OLP 16% NDP 15% GPO 6% 2025-02-17 2025-02-18 PCPO 57% OLP 16% NDP 15% GPO 6% 2025-02-18 2025-02-19 PCPO 58% OLP 16% NDP 15% GPO 6% 2025-02-19 2025-02-20 PCPO 58% OLP 16% NDP 15% GPO 6% 2025-02-20 2025-02-21 PCPO 58% OLP 16% NDP 15% GPO 6% 2025-02-21 2025-02-22 PCPO 58% OLP 16% NDP 15% GPO 6% 2025-02-22 2025-02-23 PCPO 58% OLP 16% NDP 15% GPO 6% 2025-02-23 2025-02-24 PCPO 58% OLP 16% NDP 15% GPO 6% 2025-02-24 2025-02-25 PCPO 58% OLP 16% NDP 15% GPO 6% 2025-02-25 2025-02-26 PCPO 59% OLP 16% NDP 15% GPO 6% 2025-02-26 2025-02-27 PCPO 59% OLP 16% NDP 15% GPO 6% 2025-02-27 2025-02-28 PCPO 55% OLP 23% NDP 11% GPO 4% 2025-02-28

Odds of winning | Oxford

OLP <1% PCPO >99% NDP <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2025-02-01 2025-02-15 2025-03-01 Election 2025 Campaign begins OLP PCPO NDP February 28, 2025 2025-01-27 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-01-27 2025-01-29 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-01-29 2025-01-31 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-01-31 2025-02-02 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-02 2025-02-03 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-03 2025-02-04 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-04 2025-02-05 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-05 2025-02-06 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-06 2025-02-07 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-07 2025-02-08 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-08 2025-02-09 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-09 2025-02-10 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-10 2025-02-11 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-11 2025-02-12 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-12 2025-02-13 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-13 2025-02-14 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-14 2025-02-15 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-15 2025-02-16 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-16 2025-02-17 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-17 2025-02-18 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-18 2025-02-19 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-19 2025-02-20 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-20 2025-02-21 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-21 2025-02-22 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-22 2025-02-23 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-23 2025-02-24 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-24 2025-02-25 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-25 2025-02-26 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-26 2025-02-27 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-27 2025-02-28 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-28

Recent electoral history | Oxford



2014 2018 2022 Proj. PCPO 46.2% 55.7% 50.0% 55% ± 0% NDP 25.7% 30.4% 21.4% 11% ± 0% OLP 21.4% 6.9% 12.3% 23% ± 0% ONP 0.0% 0.0% 8.1% 3% ± 0% GPO 4.8% 4.3% 4.7% 4% ± 0% NBPO 0.0% 0.0% 3.4% 3% ± 0%