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Recent electoral history | Oxford


2018 2022 2025 Projection PC 57% ± 9% 55.7% 50.0% 55.3% OLP 22% ± 7% 6.9% 12.3% 23.2% NDP 11% ± 5% 30.4% 21.4% 11.0% GPO 4% ± 3% 4.3% 4.7% 4.5% ONP 3% ± 2% 0.0% 8.1% 2.9% NBPO 3% ± 2% 0.0% 3.4% 2.7%

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338Canada Oxford projection

Latest update: February 18, 2026

Oxford 48% 66% 57% ± 9% PC 15% 29% 22% ± 7% OLP 6% 15% 11% ± 5% NDP 2% 7% 4% ± 3% GPO PC 2025 55.26% 338Canada Popular vote projection | February 18, 2026
Methodology note. This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Oxford >99% PC <1% OLP <1% NDP Odds of winning | February 18, 2026
Methodology note. These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of simulated elections.

338Canada Ontario Projection | Oxford

Odds of winning | Oxford