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Ontario

Eglinton—Lawrence


MPP: Martin, Robin (PCPO)

Latest projection: November 12, 2024
Toss up OLP/PCPO
Eglinton—Lawrence 43% ± 9%▲ PCPO 42% ± 9% OLP 8% ± 4% NDP 5% ± 3% GPO PCPO 2022 42.6% 338Canada Popular vote projection | November 12, 2024
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Eglinton—Lawrence 58%▲ PCPO 42%▼ OLP <1% NDP Odds of winning | November 12, 2024
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).


Popular vote projection | Eglinton—Lawrence

OLP 42% ± 9% PCPO 43% ± 9% NDP 8% ± 4% GPO 5% ± 3% Popular vote projection % | Eglinton—Lawrence 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2022-05-01 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 2025-09-01 Election 2022 OLP PCPO NDP GPO November 12, 2024 2022-04-30 OLP 43% PCPO 37% NDP 14% GPO 2% 2022-04-30 2022-05-03 OLP 43% PCPO 36% NDP 14% GPO 2% 2022-05-03 2022-05-04 OLP 42% PCPO 38% NDP 14% GPO 2% 2022-05-04 2022-05-05 OLP 42% PCPO 38% NDP 14% GPO 2% 2022-05-05 2022-05-06 OLP 42% PCPO 38% NDP 14% GPO 2% 2022-05-06 2022-05-07 OLP 42% PCPO 38% NDP 14% GPO 2% 2022-05-07 2022-05-08 OLP 42% PCPO 38% NDP 14% GPO 2% 2022-05-08 2022-05-09 OLP 43% PCPO 38% NDP 14% GPO 2% 2022-05-09 2022-05-10 OLP 42% PCPO 38% NDP 14% GPO 2% 2022-05-10 2022-05-11 OLP 41% PCPO 39% NDP 14% GPO 2% 2022-05-11 2022-05-12 OLP 41% PCPO 39% NDP 14% GPO 2% 2022-05-12 2022-05-13 OLP 41% PCPO 39% NDP 13% GPO 2% 2022-05-13 2022-05-14 OLP 41% PCPO 39% NDP 13% GPO 2% 2022-05-14 2022-05-15 OLP 40% PCPO 39% NDP 13% GPO 2% 2022-05-15 2022-05-16 OLP 41% PCPO 38% NDP 13% GPO 2% 2022-05-16 2022-05-17 OLP 42% PCPO 38% NDP 13% GPO 2% 2022-05-17 2022-05-18 OLP 42% PCPO 38% NDP 12% GPO 2% 2022-05-18 2022-05-19 OLP 41% PCPO 38% NDP 12% GPO 2% 2022-05-19 2022-05-20 OLP 41% PCPO 38% NDP 13% GPO 2% 2022-05-20 2022-05-21 OLP 41% PCPO 38% NDP 13% GPO 2% 2022-05-21 2022-05-22 OLP 41% PCPO 38% NDP 13% GPO 2% 2022-05-22 2022-05-23 OLP 41% PCPO 38% NDP 13% GPO 2% 2022-05-23 2022-05-24 OLP 41% PCPO 38% NDP 13% GPO 2% 2022-05-24 2022-05-25 OLP 40% PCPO 38% NDP 13% GPO 2% 2022-05-25 2022-05-26 OLP 40% PCPO 38% NDP 13% GPO 2% 2022-05-26 2022-05-27 OLP 40% PCPO 38% NDP 13% GPO 2% 2022-05-27 2022-05-28 OLP 40% PCPO 39% NDP 12% GPO 2% 2022-05-28 2022-05-29 OLP 40% PCPO 39% NDP 12% GPO 2% 2022-05-29 2022-05-30 OLP 40% PCPO 39% NDP 12% GPO 2% 2022-05-30 2022-05-31 OLP 40% PCPO 39% NDP 12% GPO 2% 2022-05-31 2022-06-01 OLP 40% PCPO 39% NDP 12% GPO 2% 2022-06-01 2022-06-03 PCPO 43% OLP 41% NDP 10% GPO 4% 2022-06-03 2022-12-30 PCPO 42% OLP 41% NDP 10% GPO 4% 2022-12-30 2023-02-15 PCPO 42% OLP 42% NDP 9% GPO 4% 2023-02-15 2023-03-09 OLP 42% PCPO 41% NDP 9% GPO 4% 2023-03-09 2023-03-17 OLP 42% PCPO 41% NDP 9% GPO 4% 2023-03-17 2023-04-16 PCPO 42% OLP 42% NDP 9% GPO 4% 2023-04-16 2023-07-07 OLP 42% PCPO 38% NDP 10% GPO 6% 2023-07-07 2023-07-22 OLP 42% PCPO 38% NDP 10% GPO 6% 2023-07-22 2023-07-28 OLP 42% PCPO 39% NDP 10% GPO 5% 2023-07-28 2023-08-26 OLP 42% PCPO 40% NDP 10% GPO 5% 2023-08-26 2023-10-07 OLP 44% PCPO 37% NDP 10% GPO 5% 2023-10-07 2023-10-23 OLP 42% PCPO 39% NDP 10% GPO 5% 2023-10-23 2023-12-01 PCPO 42% OLP 40% NDP 10% GPO 5% 2023-12-01 2023-12-20 OLP 43% PCPO 40% NDP 10% GPO 5% 2023-12-20 2024-02-02 OLP 43% PCPO 40% NDP 9% GPO 5% 2024-02-02 2024-02-20 OLP 49% PCPO 35% NDP 9% GPO 5% 2024-02-20 2024-03-05 OLP 46% PCPO 39% NDP 8% GPO 5% 2024-03-05 2024-04-04 OLP 44% PCPO 40% NDP 9% GPO 5% 2024-04-04 2024-05-03 OLP 43% PCPO 41% NDP 9% GPO 5% 2024-05-03 2024-06-30 PCPO 42% OLP 42% NDP 9% GPO 5% 2024-06-30 2024-07-29 PCPO 43% OLP 41% NDP 8% GPO 5% 2024-07-29 2024-10-09 PCPO 42% OLP 42% NDP 8% GPO 5% 2024-10-09 2024-11-11 PCPO 43% OLP 42% NDP 8% GPO 5% 2024-11-11

Odds of winning | Eglinton—Lawrence

OLP 42% PCPO 58% NDP <1% GPO <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2022-05-01 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 2025-09-01 Election 2022 OLP PCPO NDP GPO November 12, 2024 2022-04-30 OLP 83% PCPO 17% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2022-04-30 2022-05-03 OLP 86% PCPO 14% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2022-05-03 2022-05-04 OLP 74% PCPO 26% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2022-05-04 2022-05-05 OLP 74% PCPO 26% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2022-05-05 2022-05-06 OLP 71% PCPO 29% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2022-05-06 2022-05-07 OLP 74% PCPO 26% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2022-05-07 2022-05-08 OLP 76% PCPO 24% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2022-05-08 2022-05-09 OLP 80% PCPO 20% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2022-05-09 2022-05-10 OLP 78% PCPO 22% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2022-05-10 2022-05-11 OLP 63% PCPO 37% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2022-05-11 2022-05-12 OLP 63% PCPO 37% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2022-05-12 2022-05-13 OLP 61% PCPO 39% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2022-05-13 2022-05-14 OLP 61% PCPO 39% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2022-05-14 2022-05-15 OLP 53% PCPO 47% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2022-05-15 2022-05-16 OLP 66% PCPO 34% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2022-05-16 2022-05-17 OLP 74% PCPO 26% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2022-05-17 2022-05-18 OLP 72% PCPO 28% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2022-05-18 2022-05-19 OLP 69% PCPO 31% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2022-05-19 2022-05-20 OLP 70% PCPO 30% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2022-05-20 2022-05-21 OLP 69% PCPO 31% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2022-05-21 2022-05-22 OLP 71% PCPO 29% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2022-05-22 2022-05-23 OLP 67% PCPO 33% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2022-05-23 2022-05-24 OLP 68% PCPO 32% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2022-05-24 2022-05-25 OLP 67% PCPO 33% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2022-05-25 2022-05-26 OLP 67% PCPO 33% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2022-05-26 2022-05-27 OLP 64% PCPO 36% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2022-05-27 2022-05-28 OLP 58% PCPO 42% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2022-05-28 2022-05-29 OLP 58% PCPO 42% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2022-05-29 2022-05-30 OLP 59% PCPO 41% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2022-05-30 2022-05-31 OLP 56% PCPO 44% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2022-05-31 2022-06-01 OLP 52% PCPO 48% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2022-06-01 2022-06-03 PCPO 67% OLP 33% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2022-06-03 2022-12-30 PCPO 58% OLP 42% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2022-12-30 2023-02-15 PCPO 51% OLP 49% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2023-02-15 2023-03-09 OLP 57% PCPO 43% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2023-03-09 2023-03-17 OLP 57% PCPO 43% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2023-03-17 2023-04-16 PCPO 51% OLP 49% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2023-04-16 2023-07-07 OLP 74% PCPO 26% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2023-07-07 2023-07-22 OLP 75% PCPO 25% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2023-07-22 2023-07-28 OLP 68% PCPO 32% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2023-07-28 2023-08-26 OLP 65% PCPO 35% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2023-08-26 2023-10-07 OLP 87% PCPO 13% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2023-10-07 2023-10-23 OLP 65% PCPO 35% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2023-10-23 2023-12-01 PCPO 60% OLP 40% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2023-12-01 2023-12-20 OLP 66% PCPO 34% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2023-12-20 2024-02-02 OLP 73% PCPO 27% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2024-02-02 2024-02-20 OLP 99% PCPO 1% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2024-02-20 2024-03-05 OLP 87% PCPO 13% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2024-03-05 2024-04-04 OLP 76% PCPO 24% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2024-04-04 2024-05-03 OLP 67% PCPO 33% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2024-05-03 2024-06-30 PCPO 50% OLP 50% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2024-06-30 2024-07-29 PCPO 65% OLP 35% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2024-07-29 2024-10-09 PCPO 53% OLP 47% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2024-10-09 2024-11-11 PCPO 58% OLP 42% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2024-11-11

Recent electoral history | Eglinton—Lawrence



2014 2018 2022 Proj. PCPO 33.8% 40.2% 42.6% 43% ± 9% OLP 54.8% 38.7% 40.8% 42% ± 9% NDP 7.3% 18.1% 9.6% 8% ± 4% GPO 3.1% 2.4% 3.8% 5% ± 3% NBPO 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 1% ± 1% ONP 0.0% 0.0% 0.7% 1% ± 1%