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Ontario

Eglinton—Lawrence


MPP: Martin, Robin (PCPO)
Latest projection: February 20, 2025
Toss up OLP/PCPO

Candidates | Eglinton—Lawrence


PC Party of Ontario Michelle Cooper
Liberal Party Vince Gasparro
Green Party Leah Tysoe

Candidates listed here are on the Elections Ontario website.

Eglinton—Lawrence 47% ± 10%▲ PCPO 46% ± 10%▼ OLP 7% ± 4% GPO PCPO 2022 42.6% 338Canada Popular vote projection | February 20, 2025
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Eglinton—Lawrence 51%▲ PCPO 49%▼ OLP <1% GPO Odds of winning | February 20, 2025
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).


Popular vote projection | Eglinton—Lawrence

OLP 46% ± 10% PCPO 47% ± 10% GPO 7% ± 4% Popular vote projection % | Eglinton—Lawrence 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2025-02-01 2025-02-15 2025-03-01 Election 2025 Campaign begins OLP PCPO GPO February 20, 2025 2025-01-27 PCPO 45% OLP 40% GPO 4% 2025-01-27 2025-01-29 PCPO 46% OLP 40% GPO 4% 2025-01-29 2025-01-31 PCPO 48% OLP 39% GPO 4% 2025-01-31 2025-02-02 PCPO 48% OLP 38% GPO 4% 2025-02-02 2025-02-03 PCPO 48% OLP 39% GPO 4% 2025-02-03 2025-02-04 PCPO 48% OLP 40% GPO 4% 2025-02-04 2025-02-05 PCPO 48% OLP 40% GPO 4% 2025-02-05 2025-02-06 PCPO 49% OLP 39% GPO 4% 2025-02-06 2025-02-07 PCPO 49% OLP 39% GPO 4% 2025-02-07 2025-02-08 PCPO 48% OLP 39% GPO 4% 2025-02-08 2025-02-09 PCPO 49% OLP 38% GPO 4% 2025-02-09 2025-02-10 PCPO 49% OLP 39% GPO 4% 2025-02-10 2025-02-11 PCPO 49% OLP 39% GPO 4% 2025-02-11 2025-02-12 PCPO 48% OLP 40% GPO 4% 2025-02-12 2025-02-13 OLP 46% PCPO 46% GPO 7% 2025-02-13 2025-02-14 OLP 47% PCPO 46% GPO 7% 2025-02-14 2025-02-15 PCPO 47% OLP 46% GPO 7% 2025-02-15 2025-02-16 PCPO 47% OLP 46% GPO 7% 2025-02-16 2025-02-17 OLP 48% PCPO 45% GPO 7% 2025-02-17 2025-02-18 OLP 47% PCPO 46% GPO 7% 2025-02-18 2025-02-19 OLP 47% PCPO 46% GPO 7% 2025-02-19 2025-02-20 PCPO 47% OLP 46% GPO 7% 2025-02-20

Odds of winning | Eglinton—Lawrence

OLP 49% PCPO 51% NDP <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2025-02-01 2025-02-15 2025-03-01 Election 2025 Campaign begins OLP PCPO NDP February 20, 2025 2025-01-27 PCPO 79% OLP 21% NDP <1% 2025-01-27 2025-01-29 PCPO 81% OLP 19% NDP <1% 2025-01-29 2025-01-31 PCPO 93% OLP 7% NDP <1% 2025-01-31 2025-02-02 PCPO 94% OLP 6% NDP <1% 2025-02-02 2025-02-03 PCPO 91% OLP 9% NDP <1% 2025-02-03 2025-02-04 PCPO 90% OLP 10% NDP <1% 2025-02-04 2025-02-05 PCPO 90% OLP 10% NDP <1% 2025-02-05 2025-02-06 PCPO 94% OLP 6% NDP <1% 2025-02-06 2025-02-07 PCPO 93% OLP 7% NDP <1% 2025-02-07 2025-02-08 PCPO 92% OLP 8% NDP <1% 2025-02-08 2025-02-09 PCPO 95% OLP 5% NDP <1% 2025-02-09 2025-02-10 PCPO 94% OLP 6% NDP <1% 2025-02-10 2025-02-11 PCPO 92% OLP 8% NDP <1% 2025-02-11 2025-02-12 PCPO 91% OLP 9% NDP <1% 2025-02-12 2025-02-13 PCPO 50% OLP 50% NDP <1% 2025-02-13 2025-02-14 OLP 53% PCPO 47% NDP <1% 2025-02-14 2025-02-15 PCPO 53% OLP 47% NDP <1% 2025-02-15 2025-02-16 PCPO 52% OLP 48% NDP <1% 2025-02-16 2025-02-17 OLP 62% PCPO 38% NDP <1% 2025-02-17 2025-02-18 OLP 60% PCPO 40% NDP <1% 2025-02-18 2025-02-19 OLP 52% PCPO 48% NDP <1% 2025-02-19 2025-02-20 PCPO 51% OLP 49% NDP <1% 2025-02-20

Recent electoral history | Eglinton—Lawrence



2014 2018 2022 Proj. PCPO 33.8% 40.2% 42.6% 47% ± 10% OLP 54.8% 38.7% 40.8% 46% ± 10% GPO 3.1% 2.4% 3.8% 7% ± 4%