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Ontario

Glengarry—Prescott—Russell


MPP: Sarrazin, Stéphane (PCPO)
Latest projection: February 20, 2025
Likely PCPO

Candidates | Glengarry—Prescott—Russell


PC Party of Ontario Stéphane Sarrazin
Liberal Party Trevor Stewart
Ontario NDP Ryder Finlay
Green Party Thaila Riden
New Blue Party Felix Labrosse
Ontario Party Brandon Wallingford
Independent Jason St-Louis

Candidates listed here are on the Elections Ontario website.

Glengarry—Prescott—Russell 48% ± 9%▲ PCPO 38% ± 9%▼ OLP 6% ± 3% NDP 4% ± 3% GPO PCPO 2022 42.5% 338Canada Popular vote projection | February 20, 2025
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Glengarry—Prescott—Russell 92%▲ PCPO 8%▼ OLP <1% NDP Odds of winning | February 20, 2025
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).


Popular vote projection | Glengarry—Prescott—Russell

OLP 38% ± 9% PCPO 48% ± 9% NDP 6% ± 3% GPO 4% ± 3% Popular vote projection % | Glengarry—Prescott—Russell 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2025-02-01 2025-02-15 2025-03-01 Election 2025 Campaign begins OLP PCPO NDP GPO February 20, 2025 2025-01-27 PCPO 44% OLP 39% NDP 8% GPO 5% 2025-01-27 2025-01-29 PCPO 45% OLP 39% NDP 8% GPO 5% 2025-01-29 2025-01-31 PCPO 48% OLP 38% NDP 8% GPO 4% 2025-01-31 2025-02-02 PCPO 48% OLP 37% NDP 8% GPO 4% 2025-02-02 2025-02-03 PCPO 47% OLP 38% NDP 8% GPO 4% 2025-02-03 2025-02-04 PCPO 47% OLP 39% NDP 7% GPO 4% 2025-02-04 2025-02-05 PCPO 47% OLP 38% NDP 7% GPO 4% 2025-02-05 2025-02-06 PCPO 48% OLP 38% NDP 7% GPO 4% 2025-02-06 2025-02-07 PCPO 48% OLP 38% NDP 7% GPO 4% 2025-02-07 2025-02-08 PCPO 48% OLP 38% NDP 7% GPO 4% 2025-02-08 2025-02-09 PCPO 48% OLP 37% NDP 8% GPO 4% 2025-02-09 2025-02-10 PCPO 48% OLP 38% NDP 7% GPO 4% 2025-02-10 2025-02-11 PCPO 48% OLP 38% NDP 7% GPO 4% 2025-02-11 2025-02-12 PCPO 48% OLP 39% NDP 7% GPO 4% 2025-02-12 2025-02-13 PCPO 47% OLP 38% NDP 7% GPO 4% 2025-02-13 2025-02-14 PCPO 47% OLP 39% NDP 6% GPO 4% 2025-02-14 2025-02-15 PCPO 48% OLP 38% NDP 6% GPO 4% 2025-02-15 2025-02-16 PCPO 48% OLP 38% NDP 6% GPO 4% 2025-02-16 2025-02-17 PCPO 46% OLP 39% NDP 6% GPO 4% 2025-02-17 2025-02-18 PCPO 47% OLP 39% NDP 6% GPO 4% 2025-02-18 2025-02-19 PCPO 47% OLP 39% NDP 6% GPO 4% 2025-02-19 2025-02-20 PCPO 48% OLP 38% NDP 6% GPO 4% 2025-02-20

Odds of winning | Glengarry—Prescott—Russell

OLP 8% PCPO 92% NDP <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2025-02-01 2025-02-15 2025-03-01 Election 2025 Campaign begins OLP PCPO NDP February 20, 2025 2025-01-27 PCPO 80% OLP 20% NDP <1% 2025-01-27 2025-01-29 PCPO 82% OLP 18% NDP <1% 2025-01-29 2025-01-31 PCPO 94% OLP 6% NDP <1% 2025-01-31 2025-02-02 PCPO 95% OLP 5% NDP <1% 2025-02-02 2025-02-03 PCPO 92% OLP 8% NDP <1% 2025-02-03 2025-02-04 PCPO 91% OLP 9% NDP <1% 2025-02-04 2025-02-05 PCPO 91% OLP 9% NDP <1% 2025-02-05 2025-02-06 PCPO 95% OLP 5% NDP <1% 2025-02-06 2025-02-07 PCPO 94% OLP 6% NDP <1% 2025-02-07 2025-02-08 PCPO 93% OLP 7% NDP <1% 2025-02-08 2025-02-09 PCPO 96% OLP 4% NDP <1% 2025-02-09 2025-02-10 PCPO 95% OLP 5% NDP <1% 2025-02-10 2025-02-11 PCPO 93% OLP 7% NDP <1% 2025-02-11 2025-02-12 PCPO 93% OLP 7% NDP <1% 2025-02-12 2025-02-13 PCPO 93% OLP 7% NDP <1% 2025-02-13 2025-02-14 PCPO 91% OLP 9% NDP <1% 2025-02-14 2025-02-15 PCPO 93% OLP 7% NDP <1% 2025-02-15 2025-02-16 PCPO 94% OLP 6% NDP <1% 2025-02-16 2025-02-17 PCPO 88% OLP 12% NDP <1% 2025-02-17 2025-02-18 PCPO 87% OLP 13% NDP <1% 2025-02-18 2025-02-19 PCPO 91% OLP 9% NDP <1% 2025-02-19 2025-02-20 PCPO 92% OLP 8% NDP <1% 2025-02-20

Recent electoral history | Glengarry—Prescott—Russell



2014 2018 2022 Proj. PCPO 32.6% 41.0% 42.5% 48% ± 9% OLP 49.7% 31.7% 39.0% 38% ± 9% NDP 12.5% 21.8% 8.6% 6% ± 3% NBPO 0.0% 0.0% 4.4% 2% ± 2% GPO 3.2% 2.9% 3.8% 4% ± 3% ONP 0.0% 0.0% 1.9% 1% ± 1%