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Ontario

Ottawa Centre


MPP: Harden, Joel (NDP)

Latest projection: May 3, 2024
Safe NDP
Ottawa Centre 51% ± 9% NDP 25% ± 7% OLP 15% ± 6% PCPO 6% ± 4% GPO NDP 2022 54.4% 338Canada Popular vote projection | May 3, 2024
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by profesional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Ottawa Centre >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% PCPO Odds of winning | May 3, 2024
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).


Popular vote projection | Ottawa Centre

OLP 25% ± 7% PCPO 15% ± 6% NDP 51% ± 9% GPO 6% ± 4% Popular vote projection % | Ottawa Centre 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2022-05-01 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 Election 2022 OLP PCPO NDP GPO

Odds of winning | Ottawa Centre

OLP <1% PCPO <1% NDP >99% GPO <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2022-05-01 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 Election 2022 OLP PCPO NDP GPO

Recent electoral history | Ottawa Centre



2014 2018 2022 Proj. NDP 20.5% 46.1% 54.4% 51% ± 9% OLP 52.0% 32.8% 22.5% 25% ± 7% PCPO 18.2% 16.1% 15.7% 15% ± 6% GPO 7.8% 3.5% 4.8% 6% ± 4% NBPO 0.0% 0.0% 1.4% 1% ± 1%