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Ontario

Ottawa Centre


MPP: Harden, Joel (NDP)
Latest projection: February 20, 2025
Safe NDP

Candidates | Ottawa Centre


PC Party of Ontario Scott Healey
Liberal Party Thomas Simpson
Ontario NDP Catherine Mckenney
Green Party Simon Beckett
New Blue Party Maria Desouza
Ontario Party Shannon Boschy
Communist Parti Cashton Perry
Independent Josh Rachlis

Candidates listed here are on the Elections Ontario website.

Ottawa Centre 47% ± 9% NDP 25% ± 7% OLP 20% ± 6% PCPO 6% ± 3% GPO NDP 2022 54.4% 338Canada Popular vote projection | February 20, 2025
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Ottawa Centre >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% PCPO Odds of winning | February 20, 2025
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).


Popular vote projection | Ottawa Centre

OLP 25% ± 7% PCPO 20% ± 6% NDP 47% ± 9% GPO 6% ± 3% Popular vote projection % | Ottawa Centre 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2025-02-01 2025-02-15 2025-03-01 Election 2025 Campaign begins OLP PCPO NDP GPO February 20, 2025 2025-01-27 NDP 51% OLP 24% PCPO 17% GPO 6% 2025-01-27 2025-01-29 NDP 50% OLP 24% PCPO 17% GPO 6% 2025-01-29 2025-01-31 NDP 50% OLP 23% PCPO 19% GPO 6% 2025-01-31 2025-02-02 NDP 50% OLP 23% PCPO 19% GPO 6% 2025-02-02 2025-02-03 NDP 50% OLP 24% PCPO 19% GPO 6% 2025-02-03 2025-02-04 NDP 49% OLP 24% PCPO 19% GPO 6% 2025-02-04 2025-02-05 NDP 49% OLP 24% PCPO 19% GPO 6% 2025-02-05 2025-02-06 NDP 49% OLP 24% PCPO 20% GPO 6% 2025-02-06 2025-02-07 NDP 49% OLP 24% PCPO 20% GPO 6% 2025-02-07 2025-02-08 NDP 49% OLP 24% PCPO 19% GPO 6% 2025-02-08 2025-02-09 NDP 50% OLP 23% PCPO 19% GPO 6% 2025-02-09 2025-02-10 NDP 49% OLP 24% PCPO 19% GPO 6% 2025-02-10 2025-02-11 NDP 48% OLP 25% PCPO 20% GPO 6% 2025-02-11 2025-02-12 NDP 47% OLP 25% PCPO 20% GPO 6% 2025-02-12 2025-02-13 NDP 47% OLP 25% PCPO 20% GPO 6% 2025-02-13 2025-02-14 NDP 47% OLP 25% PCPO 20% GPO 6% 2025-02-14 2025-02-15 NDP 47% OLP 25% PCPO 20% GPO 6% 2025-02-15 2025-02-16 NDP 47% OLP 25% PCPO 20% GPO 6% 2025-02-16 2025-02-17 NDP 47% OLP 25% PCPO 19% GPO 6% 2025-02-17 2025-02-18 NDP 47% OLP 25% PCPO 19% GPO 6% 2025-02-18 2025-02-19 NDP 47% OLP 25% PCPO 20% GPO 6% 2025-02-19 2025-02-20 NDP 47% OLP 25% PCPO 20% GPO 6% 2025-02-20

Odds of winning | Ottawa Centre

OLP <1% NDP >99% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2025-02-01 2025-02-15 2025-03-01 Election 2025 Campaign begins OLP NDP February 20, 2025 2025-01-27 NDP >99% OLP <1% 2025-01-27 2025-01-29 NDP >99% OLP <1% 2025-01-29 2025-01-31 NDP >99% OLP <1% 2025-01-31 2025-02-02 NDP >99% OLP <1% 2025-02-02 2025-02-03 NDP >99% OLP <1% 2025-02-03 2025-02-04 NDP >99% OLP <1% 2025-02-04 2025-02-05 NDP >99% OLP <1% 2025-02-05 2025-02-06 NDP >99% OLP <1% 2025-02-06 2025-02-07 NDP >99% OLP <1% 2025-02-07 2025-02-08 NDP >99% OLP <1% 2025-02-08 2025-02-09 NDP >99% OLP <1% 2025-02-09 2025-02-10 NDP >99% OLP <1% 2025-02-10 2025-02-11 NDP >99% OLP <1% 2025-02-11 2025-02-12 NDP >99% OLP <1% 2025-02-12 2025-02-13 NDP >99% OLP <1% 2025-02-13 2025-02-14 NDP >99% OLP <1% 2025-02-14 2025-02-15 NDP >99% OLP <1% 2025-02-15 2025-02-16 NDP >99% OLP <1% 2025-02-16 2025-02-17 NDP >99% OLP <1% 2025-02-17 2025-02-18 NDP >99% OLP <1% 2025-02-18 2025-02-19 NDP >99% OLP <1% 2025-02-19 2025-02-20 NDP >99% OLP <1% 2025-02-20

Recent electoral history | Ottawa Centre



2014 2018 2022 Proj. NDP 20.5% 46.1% 54.4% 47% ± 9% OLP 52.0% 32.8% 22.5% 25% ± 7% PCPO 18.2% 16.1% 15.7% 20% ± 6% GPO 7.8% 3.5% 4.8% 6% ± 3% NBPO 0.0% 0.0% 1.4% 1% ± 1% ONP 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1% ± 1%