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Ontario

Ottawa Centre


MPP: Harden, Joel (NDP)

Latest projection: December 15, 2024
Safe NDP
Ottawa Centre 51% ± 9%▲ NDP 24% ± 7% OLP 16% ± 6% PCPO 7% ± 4% GPO NDP 2022 54.4% 338Canada Popular vote projection | December 15, 2024
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Ottawa Centre >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% PCPO Odds of winning | December 15, 2024
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).


Popular vote projection | Ottawa Centre

OLP 24% ± 7% PCPO 16% ± 6% NDP 51% ± 9% GPO 7% ± 4% Popular vote projection % | Ottawa Centre 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2022-05-01 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 2025-09-01 Election 2022 OLP PCPO NDP GPO December 15, 2024 2022-04-30 OLP 48% NDP 28% PCPO 16% GPO 3% 2022-04-30 2022-05-03 OLP 44% NDP 33% PCPO 15% GPO 2% 2022-05-03 2022-05-04 OLP 41% NDP 36% PCPO 15% GPO 2% 2022-05-04 2022-05-05 OLP 41% NDP 36% PCPO 15% GPO 2% 2022-05-05 2022-05-06 OLP 40% NDP 37% PCPO 15% GPO 2% 2022-05-06 2022-05-07 OLP 40% NDP 37% PCPO 15% GPO 2% 2022-05-07 2022-05-08 OLP 40% NDP 37% PCPO 15% GPO 2% 2022-05-08 2022-05-09 OLP 41% NDP 37% PCPO 15% GPO 2% 2022-05-09 2022-05-10 OLP 41% NDP 39% PCPO 13% GPO 2% 2022-05-10 2022-05-11 OLP 40% NDP 39% PCPO 13% GPO 2% 2022-05-11 2022-05-12 OLP 40% NDP 39% PCPO 13% GPO 2% 2022-05-12 2022-05-13 OLP 40% NDP 39% PCPO 14% GPO 2% 2022-05-13 2022-05-14 OLP 40% NDP 39% PCPO 14% GPO 2% 2022-05-14 2022-05-15 OLP 40% NDP 39% PCPO 14% GPO 2% 2022-05-15 2022-05-16 OLP 40% NDP 39% PCPO 13% GPO 2% 2022-05-16 2022-05-17 OLP 41% NDP 38% PCPO 13% GPO 3% 2022-05-17 2022-05-18 OLP 41% NDP 38% PCPO 13% GPO 3% 2022-05-18 2022-05-19 OLP 40% NDP 38% PCPO 13% GPO 3% 2022-05-19 2022-05-20 OLP 40% NDP 38% PCPO 13% GPO 4% 2022-05-20 2022-05-21 OLP 40% NDP 38% PCPO 13% GPO 4% 2022-05-21 2022-05-22 OLP 40% NDP 38% PCPO 13% GPO 4% 2022-05-22 2022-05-23 OLP 39% NDP 39% PCPO 14% GPO 4% 2022-05-23 2022-05-24 OLP 39% NDP 38% PCPO 14% GPO 4% 2022-05-24 2022-05-25 OLP 39% NDP 38% PCPO 14% GPO 4% 2022-05-25 2022-05-26 OLP 39% NDP 38% PCPO 14% GPO 4% 2022-05-26 2022-05-27 NDP 40% OLP 35% PCPO 14% GPO 4% 2022-05-27 2022-05-28 NDP 39% OLP 36% PCPO 15% GPO 4% 2022-05-28 2022-05-29 NDP 39% OLP 36% PCPO 15% GPO 4% 2022-05-29 2022-05-30 NDP 39% OLP 36% PCPO 15% GPO 4% 2022-05-30 2022-05-31 NDP 39% OLP 36% PCPO 15% GPO 4% 2022-05-31 2022-06-01 NDP 38% OLP 36% PCPO 16% GPO 4% 2022-06-01 2022-06-03 NDP 54% OLP 22% PCPO 16% GPO 5% 2022-06-03 2022-12-30 NDP 55% OLP 22% PCPO 15% GPO 5% 2022-12-30 2023-02-15 NDP 52% OLP 24% PCPO 16% GPO 6% 2023-02-15 2023-03-09 NDP 52% OLP 24% PCPO 16% GPO 6% 2023-03-09 2023-03-17 NDP 52% OLP 24% PCPO 16% GPO 5% 2023-03-17 2023-04-16 NDP 53% OLP 23% PCPO 16% GPO 5% 2023-04-16 2023-07-07 NDP 54% OLP 23% PCPO 13% GPO 7% 2023-07-07 2023-07-22 NDP 54% OLP 23% PCPO 13% GPO 7% 2023-07-22 2023-07-28 NDP 54% OLP 23% PCPO 14% GPO 7% 2023-07-28 2023-08-26 NDP 54% OLP 23% PCPO 14% GPO 7% 2023-08-26 2023-10-07 NDP 54% OLP 24% PCPO 13% GPO 6% 2023-10-07 2023-10-23 NDP 54% OLP 23% PCPO 14% GPO 6% 2023-10-23 2023-12-01 NDP 54% OLP 22% PCPO 15% GPO 6% 2023-12-01 2023-12-20 NDP 53% OLP 24% PCPO 14% GPO 6% 2023-12-20 2024-02-02 NDP 52% OLP 25% PCPO 14% GPO 6% 2024-02-02 2024-02-20 NDP 51% OLP 27% PCPO 14% GPO 6% 2024-02-20 2024-03-05 NDP 50% OLP 26% PCPO 15% GPO 7% 2024-03-05 2024-04-04 NDP 51% OLP 25% PCPO 15% GPO 6% 2024-04-04 2024-05-03 NDP 51% OLP 25% PCPO 15% GPO 6% 2024-05-03 2024-06-30 NDP 51% OLP 24% PCPO 16% GPO 7% 2024-06-30 2024-07-29 NDP 50% OLP 24% PCPO 17% GPO 7% 2024-07-29 2024-10-09 NDP 51% OLP 24% PCPO 16% GPO 7% 2024-10-09 2024-11-11 NDP 50% OLP 24% PCPO 16% GPO 7% 2024-11-11 2024-12-15 NDP 51% OLP 24% PCPO 16% GPO 7% 2024-12-15

Odds of winning | Ottawa Centre

OLP <1% PCPO <1% NDP >99% GPO <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2022-05-01 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 2025-09-01 Election 2022 OLP PCPO NDP GPO December 15, 2024 2022-04-30 OLP >99% NDP <1% GPO <1% PCPO <1% 2022-04-30 2022-05-03 OLP 96% NDP 4% GPO <1% PCPO <1% 2022-05-03 2022-05-04 OLP 80% NDP 20% GPO <1% PCPO <1% 2022-05-04 2022-05-05 OLP 81% NDP 19% GPO <1% PCPO <1% 2022-05-05 2022-05-06 OLP 69% NDP 31% GPO <1% PCPO <1% 2022-05-06 2022-05-07 OLP 69% NDP 31% GPO <1% PCPO <1% 2022-05-07 2022-05-08 OLP 70% NDP 30% GPO <1% PCPO <1% 2022-05-08 2022-05-09 OLP 77% NDP 23% GPO <1% PCPO <1% 2022-05-09 2022-05-10 OLP 65% NDP 35% GPO <1% PCPO <1% 2022-05-10 2022-05-11 OLP 55% NDP 45% GPO <1% PCPO <1% 2022-05-11 2022-05-12 OLP 58% NDP 42% GPO <1% PCPO <1% 2022-05-12 2022-05-13 OLP 59% NDP 41% GPO <1% PCPO <1% 2022-05-13 2022-05-14 OLP 59% NDP 41% GPO <1% PCPO <1% 2022-05-14 2022-05-15 OLP 54% NDP 46% GPO <1% PCPO <1% 2022-05-15 2022-05-16 OLP 59% NDP 41% GPO <1% PCPO <1% 2022-05-16 2022-05-17 OLP 74% NDP 26% GPO <1% PCPO <1% 2022-05-17 2022-05-18 OLP 72% NDP 28% GPO <1% PCPO <1% 2022-05-18 2022-05-19 OLP 69% NDP 31% GPO <1% PCPO <1% 2022-05-19 2022-05-20 OLP 63% NDP 37% GPO <1% PCPO <1% 2022-05-20 2022-05-21 OLP 62% NDP 38% GPO <1% PCPO <1% 2022-05-21 2022-05-22 OLP 62% NDP 38% GPO <1% PCPO <1% 2022-05-22 2022-05-23 OLP 51% NDP 49% GPO <1% PCPO <1% 2022-05-23 2022-05-24 OLP 53% NDP 47% GPO <1% PCPO <1% 2022-05-24 2022-05-25 OLP 54% NDP 46% GPO <1% PCPO <1% 2022-05-25 2022-05-26 OLP 54% NDP 46% GPO <1% PCPO <1% 2022-05-26 2022-05-27 NDP 80% OLP 20% GPO <1% PCPO <1% 2022-05-27 2022-05-28 NDP 75% OLP 25% GPO <1% PCPO <1% 2022-05-28 2022-05-29 NDP 75% OLP 25% GPO <1% PCPO <1% 2022-05-29 2022-05-30 NDP 75% OLP 25% GPO <1% PCPO <1% 2022-05-30 2022-05-31 NDP 74% OLP 26% GPO <1% PCPO <1% 2022-05-31 2022-06-01 NDP 64% OLP 36% GPO <1% PCPO <1% 2022-06-01 2022-06-03 NDP >99% GPO <1% PCPO <1% OLP <1% 2022-06-03 2022-12-30 NDP >99% GPO <1% PCPO <1% OLP <1% 2022-12-30 2023-02-15 NDP >99% GPO <1% PCPO <1% OLP <1% 2023-02-15 2023-03-09 NDP >99% GPO <1% PCPO <1% OLP <1% 2023-03-09 2023-03-17 NDP >99% GPO <1% PCPO <1% OLP <1% 2023-03-17 2023-04-16 NDP >99% GPO <1% PCPO <1% OLP <1% 2023-04-16 2023-07-07 NDP >99% GPO <1% PCPO <1% OLP <1% 2023-07-07 2023-07-22 NDP >99% GPO <1% PCPO <1% OLP <1% 2023-07-22 2023-07-28 NDP >99% GPO <1% PCPO <1% OLP <1% 2023-07-28 2023-08-26 NDP >99% GPO <1% PCPO <1% OLP <1% 2023-08-26 2023-10-07 NDP >99% GPO <1% PCPO <1% OLP <1% 2023-10-07 2023-10-23 NDP >99% GPO <1% PCPO <1% OLP <1% 2023-10-23 2023-12-01 NDP >99% GPO <1% PCPO <1% OLP <1% 2023-12-01 2023-12-20 NDP >99% GPO <1% PCPO <1% OLP <1% 2023-12-20 2024-02-02 NDP >99% GPO <1% PCPO <1% OLP <1% 2024-02-02 2024-02-20 NDP >99% GPO <1% PCPO <1% OLP <1% 2024-02-20 2024-03-05 NDP >99% GPO <1% PCPO <1% OLP <1% 2024-03-05 2024-04-04 NDP >99% GPO <1% PCPO <1% OLP <1% 2024-04-04 2024-05-03 NDP >99% GPO <1% PCPO <1% OLP <1% 2024-05-03 2024-06-30 NDP >99% GPO <1% PCPO <1% OLP <1% 2024-06-30 2024-07-29 NDP >99% GPO <1% PCPO <1% OLP <1% 2024-07-29 2024-10-09 NDP >99% GPO <1% PCPO <1% OLP <1% 2024-10-09 2024-11-11 NDP >99% GPO <1% PCPO <1% OLP <1% 2024-11-11 2024-12-15 NDP >99% GPO <1% PCPO <1% OLP <1% 2024-12-15

Recent electoral history | Ottawa Centre



2014 2018 2022 Proj. NDP 20.5% 46.1% 54.4% 51% ± 9% OLP 52.0% 32.8% 22.5% 24% ± 7% PCPO 18.2% 16.1% 15.7% 16% ± 6% GPO 7.8% 3.5% 4.8% 7% ± 4% NBPO 0.0% 0.0% 1.4% 1% ± 1%