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Ontario

Ottawa Centre


MPP : Catherine Mckenney (NDP)
Latest projection: June 27, 2025
Safe NDP

Recent electoral history | Ottawa Centre


2014 2018 2022 Proj. NDP 20.5% 46.1% 54.4% 55% ± 9% OLP 52.0% 32.8% 22.5% 24% ± 7% PCPO 18.2% 16.1% 15.7% 17% ± 6% GPO 7.8% 3.5% 4.8% 3% ± 2% NBPO 0.0% 0.0% 1.4% 1% ± 1% ONP 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1% ± 1% IND 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0% ± 0%

Ottawa Centre 55% ± 9% NDP 24% ± 7%▲ OLP 17% ± 6% PCPO NDP 2022 54.4% 338Canada Popular vote projection | June 27, 2025
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Ottawa Centre >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% PCPO Odds of winning | June 27, 2025
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.9%), likely (90% to 99.9%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).


Popular vote projection | Ottawa Centre

OLP 24% ± 7% PCPO 17% ± 6% NDP 55% ± 9% Popular vote projection % | Ottawa Centre 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2025-02-01 2025-03-01 2025-04-01 2025-05-01 2025-06-01 2025-07-01 2025-08-01 2025-09-01 2025-10-01 2025-11-01 2025-12-01 Election 2025 OLP PCPO NDP June 27, 2025 2025-01-27 NDP 51% OLP 24% PCPO 17% 2025-01-27 2025-01-29 NDP 50% OLP 24% PCPO 17% 2025-01-29 2025-01-31 NDP 50% OLP 23% PCPO 19% 2025-01-31 2025-02-02 NDP 50% OLP 23% PCPO 19% 2025-02-02 2025-02-03 NDP 50% OLP 24% PCPO 19% 2025-02-03 2025-02-04 NDP 49% OLP 24% PCPO 19% 2025-02-04 2025-02-05 NDP 49% OLP 24% PCPO 19% 2025-02-05 2025-02-06 NDP 49% OLP 24% PCPO 20% 2025-02-06 2025-02-07 NDP 49% OLP 24% PCPO 20% 2025-02-07 2025-02-08 NDP 49% OLP 24% PCPO 19% 2025-02-08 2025-02-09 NDP 50% OLP 23% PCPO 19% 2025-02-09 2025-02-10 NDP 49% OLP 24% PCPO 19% 2025-02-10 2025-02-11 NDP 48% OLP 25% PCPO 20% 2025-02-11 2025-02-12 NDP 47% OLP 25% PCPO 20% 2025-02-12 2025-02-13 NDP 47% OLP 25% PCPO 20% 2025-02-13 2025-02-14 NDP 47% OLP 25% PCPO 20% 2025-02-14 2025-02-15 NDP 47% OLP 25% PCPO 20% 2025-02-15 2025-02-16 NDP 47% OLP 25% PCPO 20% 2025-02-16 2025-02-17 NDP 47% OLP 25% PCPO 19% 2025-02-17 2025-02-18 NDP 47% OLP 25% PCPO 19% 2025-02-18 2025-02-19 NDP 47% OLP 25% PCPO 20% 2025-02-19 2025-02-20 NDP 47% OLP 25% PCPO 20% 2025-02-20 2025-02-21 NDP 47% OLP 25% PCPO 19% 2025-02-21 2025-02-22 NDP 47% OLP 25% PCPO 19% 2025-02-22 2025-02-23 NDP 47% OLP 25% PCPO 19% 2025-02-23 2025-02-24 NDP 47% OLP 25% PCPO 19% 2025-02-24 2025-02-25 NDP 47% OLP 25% PCPO 19% 2025-02-25 2025-02-26 NDP 46% OLP 25% PCPO 20% 2025-02-26 2025-02-27 NDP 46% OLP 25% PCPO 20% 2025-02-27 2025-02-28 NDP 56% OLP 23% PCPO 16% 2025-02-28 2025-06-07 NDP 55% OLP 23% PCPO 17% 2025-06-07 2025-06-27 NDP 55% OLP 24% PCPO 17% 2025-06-27

Odds of winning | Ottawa Centre

OLP <1% NDP >99% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2025-02-01 2025-03-01 2025-04-01 2025-05-01 2025-06-01 2025-07-01 2025-08-01 2025-09-01 2025-10-01 2025-11-01 2025-12-01 Election 2025 OLP NDP June 27, 2025 2025-01-27 NDP >99% OLP <1% 2025-01-27 2025-01-29 NDP >99% OLP <1% 2025-01-29 2025-01-31 NDP >99% OLP <1% 2025-01-31 2025-02-02 NDP >99% OLP <1% 2025-02-02 2025-02-03 NDP >99% OLP <1% 2025-02-03 2025-02-04 NDP >99% OLP <1% 2025-02-04 2025-02-05 NDP >99% OLP <1% 2025-02-05 2025-02-06 NDP >99% OLP <1% 2025-02-06 2025-02-07 NDP >99% OLP <1% 2025-02-07 2025-02-08 NDP >99% OLP <1% 2025-02-08 2025-02-09 NDP >99% OLP <1% 2025-02-09 2025-02-10 NDP >99% OLP <1% 2025-02-10 2025-02-11 NDP >99% OLP <1% 2025-02-11 2025-02-12 NDP >99% OLP <1% 2025-02-12 2025-02-13 NDP >99% OLP <1% 2025-02-13 2025-02-14 NDP >99% OLP <1% 2025-02-14 2025-02-15 NDP >99% OLP <1% 2025-02-15 2025-02-16 NDP >99% OLP <1% 2025-02-16 2025-02-17 NDP >99% OLP <1% 2025-02-17 2025-02-18 NDP >99% OLP <1% 2025-02-18 2025-02-19 NDP >99% OLP <1% 2025-02-19 2025-02-20 NDP >99% OLP <1% 2025-02-20 2025-02-21 NDP >99% OLP <1% 2025-02-21 2025-02-22 NDP >99% OLP <1% 2025-02-22 2025-02-23 NDP >99% OLP <1% 2025-02-23 2025-02-24 NDP >99% OLP <1% 2025-02-24 2025-02-25 NDP >99% OLP <1% 2025-02-25 2025-02-26 NDP >99% OLP <1% 2025-02-26 2025-02-27 NDP >99% OLP <1% 2025-02-27 2025-02-28 NDP >99% OLP <1% 2025-02-28 2025-06-07 NDP >99% OLP <1% 2025-06-07 2025-06-27 NDP >99% OLP <1% 2025-06-27