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Ontario

Toronto—Danforth


MPP: Tabuns, Peter (NDP)

Latest projection: December 15, 2024
Safe NDP
Toronto—Danforth 51% ± 9%▲ NDP 24% ± 7%▼ OLP 15% ± 6%▲ PCPO 8% ± 4% GPO NDP 2022 55.4% 338Canada Popular vote projection | December 15, 2024
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Toronto—Danforth >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% PCPO Odds of winning | December 15, 2024
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).


Popular vote projection | Toronto—Danforth

OLP 24% ± 7% PCPO 15% ± 6% NDP 51% ± 9% GPO 8% ± 4% Popular vote projection % | Toronto—Danforth 65 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2022-05-01 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 2025-09-01 Election 2022 OLP PCPO NDP GPO December 15, 2024 2022-04-30 NDP 52% OLP 22% PCPO 15% GPO 6% 2022-04-30 2022-05-03 NDP 52% OLP 21% PCPO 14% GPO 6% 2022-05-03 2022-05-04 NDP 51% OLP 22% PCPO 15% GPO 6% 2022-05-04 2022-05-05 NDP 51% OLP 22% PCPO 15% GPO 6% 2022-05-05 2022-05-06 NDP 51% OLP 22% PCPO 15% GPO 6% 2022-05-06 2022-05-07 NDP 51% OLP 22% PCPO 15% GPO 6% 2022-05-07 2022-05-08 NDP 52% OLP 22% PCPO 14% GPO 6% 2022-05-08 2022-05-09 NDP 51% OLP 22% PCPO 15% GPO 6% 2022-05-09 2022-05-10 NDP 51% OLP 23% PCPO 14% GPO 6% 2022-05-10 2022-05-11 NDP 51% OLP 22% PCPO 15% GPO 6% 2022-05-11 2022-05-12 NDP 51% OLP 22% PCPO 15% GPO 6% 2022-05-12 2022-05-13 NDP 51% OLP 22% PCPO 15% GPO 6% 2022-05-13 2022-05-14 NDP 50% OLP 22% PCPO 15% GPO 6% 2022-05-14 2022-05-15 NDP 50% OLP 22% PCPO 15% GPO 6% 2022-05-15 2022-05-16 NDP 50% OLP 22% PCPO 15% GPO 6% 2022-05-16 2022-05-17 NDP 46% OLP 27% PCPO 14% GPO 6% 2022-05-17 2022-05-18 NDP 45% OLP 27% PCPO 14% GPO 6% 2022-05-18 2022-05-19 NDP 45% OLP 26% PCPO 14% GPO 8% 2022-05-19 2022-05-20 NDP 45% OLP 26% PCPO 14% GPO 9% 2022-05-20 2022-05-21 NDP 45% OLP 26% PCPO 14% GPO 9% 2022-05-21 2022-05-22 NDP 45% OLP 26% PCPO 14% GPO 9% 2022-05-22 2022-05-23 NDP 45% OLP 26% PCPO 14% GPO 9% 2022-05-23 2022-05-24 NDP 45% OLP 26% PCPO 14% GPO 9% 2022-05-24 2022-05-25 NDP 44% OLP 26% PCPO 14% GPO 9% 2022-05-25 2022-05-26 NDP 44% OLP 26% PCPO 14% GPO 9% 2022-05-26 2022-05-27 NDP 44% OLP 25% PCPO 15% GPO 9% 2022-05-27 2022-05-28 NDP 43% OLP 26% PCPO 15% GPO 9% 2022-05-28 2022-05-29 NDP 43% OLP 26% PCPO 15% GPO 9% 2022-05-29 2022-05-30 NDP 45% OLP 25% PCPO 15% GPO 8% 2022-05-30 2022-05-31 NDP 45% OLP 25% PCPO 15% GPO 8% 2022-05-31 2022-06-01 NDP 44% OLP 25% PCPO 16% GPO 8% 2022-06-01 2022-06-03 NDP 55% OLP 22% PCPO 13% GPO 6% 2022-06-03 2022-12-30 NDP 56% OLP 22% PCPO 13% GPO 6% 2022-12-30 2023-02-15 NDP 53% OLP 24% PCPO 14% GPO 7% 2023-02-15 2023-03-09 NDP 52% OLP 24% PCPO 13% GPO 7% 2023-03-09 2023-03-17 NDP 53% OLP 24% PCPO 14% GPO 7% 2023-03-17 2023-04-16 NDP 54% OLP 23% PCPO 13% GPO 7% 2023-04-16 2023-07-07 NDP 55% OLP 22% PCPO 11% GPO 9% 2023-07-07 2023-07-22 NDP 55% OLP 23% PCPO 11% GPO 9% 2023-07-22 2023-07-28 NDP 55% OLP 23% PCPO 12% GPO 8% 2023-07-28 2023-08-26 NDP 54% OLP 23% PCPO 12% GPO 8% 2023-08-26 2023-10-07 NDP 55% OLP 23% PCPO 11% GPO 8% 2023-10-07 2023-10-23 NDP 55% OLP 23% PCPO 12% GPO 8% 2023-10-23 2023-12-01 NDP 55% OLP 22% PCPO 13% GPO 8% 2023-12-01 2023-12-20 NDP 54% OLP 24% PCPO 12% GPO 8% 2023-12-20 2024-02-02 NDP 53% OLP 25% PCPO 12% GPO 8% 2024-02-02 2024-02-20 NDP 51% OLP 28% PCPO 11% GPO 8% 2024-02-20 2024-03-05 NDP 49% OLP 27% PCPO 13% GPO 8% 2024-03-05 2024-04-04 NDP 51% OLP 26% PCPO 13% GPO 8% 2024-04-04 2024-05-03 NDP 51% OLP 26% PCPO 13% GPO 8% 2024-05-03 2024-06-30 NDP 51% OLP 25% PCPO 13% GPO 8% 2024-06-30 2024-07-29 NDP 50% OLP 25% PCPO 14% GPO 8% 2024-07-29 2024-10-09 NDP 50% OLP 25% PCPO 14% GPO 8% 2024-10-09 2024-11-11 NDP 50% OLP 25% PCPO 14% GPO 8% 2024-11-11 2024-12-15 NDP 51% OLP 24% PCPO 15% GPO 8% 2024-12-15

Odds of winning | Toronto—Danforth

OLP <1% PCPO <1% NDP >99% GPO <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2022-05-01 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 2025-09-01 Election 2022 OLP PCPO NDP GPO December 15, 2024 2022-04-30 NDP >99% GPO <1% PCPO <1% OLP <1% 2022-04-30 2022-05-03 NDP >99% GPO <1% PCPO <1% OLP <1% 2022-05-03 2022-05-04 NDP >99% GPO <1% PCPO <1% OLP <1% 2022-05-04 2022-05-05 NDP >99% GPO <1% PCPO <1% OLP <1% 2022-05-05 2022-05-06 NDP >99% GPO <1% PCPO <1% OLP <1% 2022-05-06 2022-05-07 NDP >99% GPO <1% PCPO <1% OLP <1% 2022-05-07 2022-05-08 NDP >99% GPO <1% PCPO <1% OLP <1% 2022-05-08 2022-05-09 NDP >99% GPO <1% PCPO <1% OLP <1% 2022-05-09 2022-05-10 NDP >99% GPO <1% PCPO <1% OLP <1% 2022-05-10 2022-05-11 NDP >99% GPO <1% PCPO <1% OLP <1% 2022-05-11 2022-05-12 NDP >99% GPO <1% PCPO <1% OLP <1% 2022-05-12 2022-05-13 NDP >99% GPO <1% PCPO <1% OLP <1% 2022-05-13 2022-05-14 NDP >99% GPO <1% PCPO <1% OLP <1% 2022-05-14 2022-05-15 NDP >99% GPO <1% PCPO <1% OLP <1% 2022-05-15 2022-05-16 NDP >99% GPO <1% PCPO <1% OLP <1% 2022-05-16 2022-05-17 NDP >99% OLP <1% GPO <1% PCPO <1% 2022-05-17 2022-05-18 NDP >99% OLP <1% GPO <1% PCPO <1% 2022-05-18 2022-05-19 NDP >99% OLP <1% GPO <1% PCPO <1% 2022-05-19 2022-05-20 NDP >99% OLP <1% GPO <1% PCPO <1% 2022-05-20 2022-05-21 NDP >99% OLP <1% GPO <1% PCPO <1% 2022-05-21 2022-05-22 NDP >99% OLP <1% GPO <1% PCPO <1% 2022-05-22 2022-05-23 NDP >99% OLP <1% GPO <1% PCPO <1% 2022-05-23 2022-05-24 NDP >99% OLP <1% GPO <1% PCPO <1% 2022-05-24 2022-05-25 NDP >99% OLP <1% GPO <1% PCPO <1% 2022-05-25 2022-05-26 NDP >99% OLP <1% GPO <1% PCPO <1% 2022-05-26 2022-05-27 NDP >99% OLP <1% GPO <1% PCPO <1% 2022-05-27 2022-05-28 NDP >99% OLP <1% GPO <1% PCPO <1% 2022-05-28 2022-05-29 NDP >99% OLP <1% GPO <1% PCPO <1% 2022-05-29 2022-05-30 NDP >99% OLP <1% GPO <1% PCPO <1% 2022-05-30 2022-05-31 NDP >99% OLP <1% GPO <1% PCPO <1% 2022-05-31 2022-06-01 NDP >99% OLP <1% GPO <1% PCPO <1% 2022-06-01 2022-06-03 NDP >99% GPO <1% PCPO <1% OLP <1% 2022-06-03 2022-12-30 NDP >99% GPO <1% PCPO <1% OLP <1% 2022-12-30 2023-02-15 NDP >99% GPO <1% PCPO <1% OLP <1% 2023-02-15 2023-03-09 NDP >99% GPO <1% PCPO <1% OLP <1% 2023-03-09 2023-03-17 NDP >99% GPO <1% PCPO <1% OLP <1% 2023-03-17 2023-04-16 NDP >99% GPO <1% PCPO <1% OLP <1% 2023-04-16 2023-07-07 NDP >99% GPO <1% PCPO <1% OLP <1% 2023-07-07 2023-07-22 NDP >99% GPO <1% PCPO <1% OLP <1% 2023-07-22 2023-07-28 NDP >99% GPO <1% PCPO <1% OLP <1% 2023-07-28 2023-08-26 NDP >99% GPO <1% PCPO <1% OLP <1% 2023-08-26 2023-10-07 NDP >99% GPO <1% PCPO <1% OLP <1% 2023-10-07 2023-10-23 NDP >99% GPO <1% PCPO <1% OLP <1% 2023-10-23 2023-12-01 NDP >99% GPO <1% PCPO <1% OLP <1% 2023-12-01 2023-12-20 NDP >99% GPO <1% PCPO <1% OLP <1% 2023-12-20 2024-02-02 NDP >99% GPO <1% PCPO <1% OLP <1% 2024-02-02 2024-02-20 NDP >99% OLP <1% GPO <1% PCPO <1% 2024-02-20 2024-03-05 NDP >99% OLP <1% GPO <1% PCPO <1% 2024-03-05 2024-04-04 NDP >99% GPO <1% PCPO <1% OLP <1% 2024-04-04 2024-05-03 NDP >99% OLP <1% GPO <1% PCPO <1% 2024-05-03 2024-06-30 NDP >99% GPO <1% PCPO <1% OLP <1% 2024-06-30 2024-07-29 NDP >99% GPO <1% PCPO <1% OLP <1% 2024-07-29 2024-10-09 NDP >99% GPO <1% PCPO <1% OLP <1% 2024-10-09 2024-11-11 NDP >99% GPO <1% PCPO <1% OLP <1% 2024-11-11 2024-12-15 NDP >99% GPO <1% PCPO <1% OLP <1% 2024-12-15

Recent electoral history | Toronto—Danforth



2014 2018 2022 Proj. NDP 44.6% 64.3% 55.4% 51% ± 9% OLP 37.2% 14.1% 22.4% 24% ± 7% PCPO 10.0% 15.9% 13.4% 15% ± 6% GPO 5.5% 4.4% 6.1% 8% ± 4% NBPO 0.0% 0.0% 1.2% 1% ± 1% ONP 0.0% 0.0% 0.6% 0% ± 1%