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Ontario


Toronto—Danforth


MPP: Tabuns, Peter (NDP)


Latest projection: October 23, 2023

Safe NDP
Toronto—Danforth 55% ± 9% 23% ± 7% 12% ± 5%▲ 8% ± 4% NDP 2022 55.4% 338Canada Popular vote projection | October 23, 2023
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by profesional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.

50% 100% Toronto—Danforth >99% <1% <1% Odds of winning | October 23, 2023
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).


Popular vote projection | Toronto—Danforth

OLP 23% ± 7% PCPO 12% ± 5% NDP 55% ± 9% GPO 8% ± 4% Popular vote projection % | Toronto—Danforth 65 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2022-07-01 2022-10-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-04-01 2023-07-01 2023-10-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-04-01 2024-07-01 Election 2022 OLP PCPO NDP GPO

Odds of winning | Toronto—Danforth

OLP <1% PCPO <1% NDP >99% GPO <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2022-07-01 2022-10-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-04-01 2023-07-01 2023-10-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-04-01 2024-07-01 Election 2022 OLP PCPO NDP GPO

Recent electoral history | Toronto—Danforth



2014 2018 2022 Proj. NDP 44.6% 64.3% 55.4% 55% ± 9% OLP 37.2% 14.1% 22.4% 23% ± 7% PCPO 10.0% 15.9% 13.4% 12% ± 5% GPO 5.5% 4.4% 6.1% 8% ± 4% NBPO 0.0% 0.0% 1.2% 1% ± 2% ONP 0.0% 0.0% 0.6% 1% ± 1%