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Ontario

Toronto—Danforth


MPP: Tabuns, Peter (NDP)
Latest projection: February 20, 2025
Safe NDP

Candidates | Toronto—Danforth


PC Party of Ontario Adam Ratkowski
Liberal Party Connor Taras
Ontario NDP Peter Tabuns
Green Party Orlando Wright
New Blue Party Stephen Graham

Candidates listed here are on the Elections Ontario website.

Toronto—Danforth 47% ± 9% NDP 27% ± 8% OLP 18% ± 6% PCPO 8% ± 4% GPO NDP 2022 55.4% 338Canada Popular vote projection | February 20, 2025
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Toronto—Danforth >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% PCPO Odds of winning | February 20, 2025
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).


Popular vote projection | Toronto—Danforth

OLP 27% ± 8% PCPO 18% ± 6% NDP 47% ± 9% GPO 8% ± 4% Popular vote projection % | Toronto—Danforth 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2025-02-01 2025-02-15 2025-03-01 Election 2025 Campaign begins OLP PCPO NDP GPO February 20, 2025 2025-01-27 NDP 50% OLP 25% PCPO 15% GPO 8% 2025-01-27 2025-01-29 NDP 49% OLP 25% PCPO 16% GPO 8% 2025-01-29 2025-01-31 NDP 49% OLP 24% PCPO 17% GPO 7% 2025-01-31 2025-02-02 NDP 49% OLP 24% PCPO 18% GPO 7% 2025-02-02 2025-02-03 NDP 49% OLP 25% PCPO 17% GPO 7% 2025-02-03 2025-02-04 NDP 48% OLP 25% PCPO 18% GPO 7% 2025-02-04 2025-02-05 NDP 48% OLP 25% PCPO 18% GPO 7% 2025-02-05 2025-02-06 NDP 48% OLP 25% PCPO 18% GPO 8% 2025-02-06 2025-02-07 NDP 48% OLP 25% PCPO 18% GPO 7% 2025-02-07 2025-02-08 NDP 48% OLP 25% PCPO 18% GPO 8% 2025-02-08 2025-02-09 NDP 49% OLP 24% PCPO 18% GPO 7% 2025-02-09 2025-02-10 NDP 48% OLP 25% PCPO 18% GPO 8% 2025-02-10 2025-02-11 NDP 47% OLP 26% PCPO 18% GPO 8% 2025-02-11 2025-02-12 NDP 46% OLP 26% PCPO 18% GPO 8% 2025-02-12 2025-02-13 NDP 47% OLP 26% PCPO 18% GPO 8% 2025-02-13 2025-02-14 NDP 47% OLP 26% PCPO 18% GPO 8% 2025-02-14 2025-02-15 NDP 47% OLP 27% PCPO 19% GPO 8% 2025-02-15 2025-02-16 NDP 47% OLP 27% PCPO 19% GPO 8% 2025-02-16 2025-02-17 NDP 47% OLP 27% PCPO 18% GPO 8% 2025-02-17 2025-02-18 NDP 47% OLP 27% PCPO 18% GPO 8% 2025-02-18 2025-02-19 NDP 47% OLP 27% PCPO 18% GPO 8% 2025-02-19 2025-02-20 NDP 47% OLP 27% PCPO 18% GPO 8% 2025-02-20

Odds of winning | Toronto—Danforth

OLP <1% NDP >99% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2025-02-01 2025-02-15 2025-03-01 Election 2025 Campaign begins OLP NDP February 20, 2025 2025-01-27 NDP >99% OLP <1% 2025-01-27 2025-01-29 NDP >99% OLP <1% 2025-01-29 2025-01-31 NDP >99% OLP <1% 2025-01-31 2025-02-02 NDP >99% OLP <1% 2025-02-02 2025-02-03 NDP >99% OLP <1% 2025-02-03 2025-02-04 NDP >99% OLP <1% 2025-02-04 2025-02-05 NDP >99% OLP <1% 2025-02-05 2025-02-06 NDP >99% OLP <1% 2025-02-06 2025-02-07 NDP >99% OLP <1% 2025-02-07 2025-02-08 NDP >99% OLP <1% 2025-02-08 2025-02-09 NDP >99% OLP <1% 2025-02-09 2025-02-10 NDP >99% OLP <1% 2025-02-10 2025-02-11 NDP >99% OLP <1% 2025-02-11 2025-02-12 NDP >99% OLP <1% 2025-02-12 2025-02-13 NDP >99% OLP <1% 2025-02-13 2025-02-14 NDP >99% OLP <1% 2025-02-14 2025-02-15 NDP >99% OLP <1% 2025-02-15 2025-02-16 NDP >99% OLP <1% 2025-02-16 2025-02-17 NDP >99% OLP <1% 2025-02-17 2025-02-18 NDP >99% OLP <1% 2025-02-18 2025-02-19 NDP >99% OLP <1% 2025-02-19 2025-02-20 NDP >99% OLP <1% 2025-02-20

Recent electoral history | Toronto—Danforth



2014 2018 2022 Proj. NDP 44.6% 64.3% 55.4% 47% ± 9% OLP 37.2% 14.1% 22.4% 27% ± 8% PCPO 10.0% 15.9% 13.4% 18% ± 6% GPO 5.5% 4.4% 6.1% 8% ± 4% NBPO 0.0% 0.0% 1.2% 1% ± 1%