338Canada | Ontario simulator





338Canada Ontario Simulator, beta version 0.1



Last update: May 19, 2021

Drag the vote slider
[Within current confidence intervals]
Ontario
vote projection
338Canada
seat projection averages
*

*In the 2018 Ontario election, these four parties combined for 98.3% of the popular vote.

If you don't see the table above, turn your phone 90°.

The parameters and functions of this simulator will be regularly updated to take into account regional swings. A note of caution: The seat projections from this simultor are only averages. See main page for full information on current confidence intervals. The seat swings are calculated according to current regional distributions, not only to those of previous elections. A more detailed version of this simulator is in the works.


FAQ about the 338Canada provincial simulator


Q: I entered the results from the last election. Why don't I get the correct seat results?

R: Because the simulator parameters are calculated with the current regional distributions, not those of the last election (even if election results are still taken into consideration). If polling regions swing disproportionately from one another compared to past election results, naturally the seats totals will be different.

Q: What is the uncertainty of the seat projections from this simulator?

R: Roughly the same as the overall uncertainty presented on the main page. This is precisely why the simulator only works within the current confidence intervals for each party. While it would be fun to have a simulator that works with ANY set of numbers, it would be neither useful nor accurate.




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