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Ontario


Hamilton West—Ancaster—Dundas


MPP: Shaw, Sandy (NDP)


Latest projection: April 4, 2024

Leaning NDP
Hamilton West—Ancaster—Dundas 35% ± 9%▲ 31% ± 8% 24% ± 7%▼ 7% ± 4% NDP 2022 40.6% 338Canada Popular vote projection | April 4, 2024
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by profesional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.

50% 100% Hamilton West—Ancaster—Dundas 77%▲ 23%▼ <1%▼ Odds of winning | April 4, 2024
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).


Popular vote projection | Hamilton West—Ancaster—Dundas

OLP 24% ± 7% PCPO 31% ± 8% NDP 35% ± 9% GPO 7% ± 4% Popular vote projection % | Hamilton West—Ancaster—Dundas 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2022-05-01 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 Election 2022 OLP PCPO NDP GPO

Odds of winning | Hamilton West—Ancaster—Dundas

OLP <1% PCPO 23% NDP 77% GPO <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2022-05-01 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 Election 2022 OLP PCPO NDP GPO

Recent electoral history | Hamilton West—Ancaster—Dundas



2014 2018 2022 Proj. NDP 24.9% 43.2% 40.6% 35% ± 9% PCPO 25.8% 31.0% 32.7% 31% ± 8% OLP 43.2% 19.8% 18.3% 24% ± 7% GPO 4.9% 4.2% 5.3% 7% ± 4% NBPO 0.0% 0.0% 2.0% 2% ± 2% ONP 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 1% ± 1%