logo
Ontario

Hamilton West—Ancaster—Dundas


MPP elect: Sandy Shaw (NDP)
Latest projection: February 28, 2025
Likely NDP

Candidates | Hamilton West—Ancaster—Dundas


PC Party of Ontario John Demik
Liberal Party Julia Brown
Ontario NDP Sandy Shaw
Green Party Guy Bisson
New Blue Party Lee Weiss Vassor
Electoral Reform Party Nori Smith
None of the Above Party Spencer Rocchi

Candidates listed here are on the Elections Ontario website.

Hamilton West—Ancaster—Dundas 39% ± 0%▲ NDP 34% ± 0%▼ PCPO 22% ± 0% OLP 4% ± 0%▼ GPO NDP 2022 40.6% 338Canada Popular vote projection | February 28, 2025
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Hamilton West—Ancaster—Dundas 93%▲ NDP 7%▼ PCPO <1% OLP Odds of winning | February 28, 2025
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).


Popular vote projection | Hamilton West—Ancaster—Dundas

OLP 22% ± 0% PCPO 34% ± 0% NDP 39% ± 0% GPO 4% ± 0% Popular vote projection % | Hamilton West—Ancaster—Dundas 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2025-02-01 2025-02-15 2025-03-01 Election 2025 Campaign begins OLP PCPO NDP GPO February 28, 2025 2025-01-27 PCPO 35% NDP 34% OLP 22% GPO 7% 2025-01-27 2025-01-29 PCPO 36% NDP 34% OLP 22% GPO 7% 2025-01-29 2025-01-31 PCPO 38% NDP 33% OLP 22% GPO 6% 2025-01-31 2025-02-02 PCPO 38% NDP 33% OLP 21% GPO 6% 2025-02-02 2025-02-03 PCPO 37% NDP 33% OLP 22% GPO 6% 2025-02-03 2025-02-04 PCPO 38% NDP 32% OLP 22% GPO 6% 2025-02-04 2025-02-05 PCPO 38% NDP 32% OLP 22% GPO 6% 2025-02-05 2025-02-06 PCPO 39% NDP 32% OLP 22% GPO 6% 2025-02-06 2025-02-07 PCPO 38% NDP 32% OLP 22% GPO 6% 2025-02-07 2025-02-08 PCPO 37% NDP 32% OLP 22% GPO 6% 2025-02-08 2025-02-09 PCPO 37% NDP 33% OLP 22% GPO 6% 2025-02-09 2025-02-10 PCPO 37% NDP 33% OLP 22% GPO 6% 2025-02-10 2025-02-11 PCPO 38% NDP 32% OLP 23% GPO 6% 2025-02-11 2025-02-12 PCPO 38% NDP 31% OLP 23% GPO 7% 2025-02-12 2025-02-13 PCPO 38% NDP 31% OLP 23% GPO 6% 2025-02-13 2025-02-14 PCPO 37% NDP 33% OLP 22% GPO 6% 2025-02-14 2025-02-15 PCPO 36% NDP 34% OLP 22% GPO 6% 2025-02-15 2025-02-16 PCPO 36% NDP 33% OLP 22% GPO 6% 2025-02-16 2025-02-17 PCPO 35% NDP 34% OLP 23% GPO 6% 2025-02-17 2025-02-18 PCPO 35% NDP 34% OLP 22% GPO 6% 2025-02-18 2025-02-19 PCPO 35% NDP 34% OLP 22% GPO 6% 2025-02-19 2025-02-20 PCPO 35% NDP 34% OLP 22% GPO 6% 2025-02-20 2025-02-21 PCPO 35% NDP 34% OLP 22% GPO 6% 2025-02-21 2025-02-22 PCPO 35% NDP 34% OLP 22% GPO 6% 2025-02-22 2025-02-23 PCPO 35% NDP 34% OLP 22% GPO 6% 2025-02-23 2025-02-24 PCPO 35% NDP 34% OLP 22% GPO 6% 2025-02-24 2025-02-25 PCPO 35% NDP 34% OLP 22% GPO 6% 2025-02-25 2025-02-26 PCPO 36% NDP 34% OLP 22% GPO 6% 2025-02-26 2025-02-27 PCPO 35% NDP 34% OLP 22% GPO 6% 2025-02-27 2025-02-28 NDP 39% PCPO 34% OLP 22% GPO 4% 2025-02-28

Odds of winning | Hamilton West—Ancaster—Dundas

OLP <1% PCPO 7% NDP 93% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2025-02-01 2025-02-15 2025-03-01 Election 2025 Campaign begins OLP PCPO NDP February 28, 2025 2025-01-27 PCPO 61% NDP 39% OLP <1% 2025-01-27 2025-01-29 PCPO 63% NDP 37% OLP <1% 2025-01-29 2025-01-31 PCPO 77% NDP 23% OLP <1% 2025-01-31 2025-02-02 PCPO 79% NDP 21% OLP <1% 2025-02-02 2025-02-03 PCPO 76% NDP 24% OLP <1% 2025-02-03 2025-02-04 PCPO 85% NDP 15% OLP <1% 2025-02-04 2025-02-05 PCPO 86% NDP 14% OLP <1% 2025-02-05 2025-02-06 PCPO 89% NDP 11% OLP <1% 2025-02-06 2025-02-07 PCPO 88% NDP 12% OLP <1% 2025-02-07 2025-02-08 PCPO 81% NDP 19% OLP <1% 2025-02-08 2025-02-09 PCPO 78% NDP 22% OLP <1% 2025-02-09 2025-02-10 PCPO 81% NDP 19% OLP <1% 2025-02-10 2025-02-11 PCPO 86% NDP 14% OLP <1% 2025-02-11 2025-02-12 PCPO 90% NDP 10% OLP <1% 2025-02-12 2025-02-13 PCPO 90% NDP 10% OLP <1% 2025-02-13 2025-02-14 PCPO 76% NDP 24% OLP <1% 2025-02-14 2025-02-15 PCPO 65% NDP 35% OLP <1% 2025-02-15 2025-02-16 PCPO 66% NDP 34% OLP <1% 2025-02-16 2025-02-17 PCPO 53% NDP 47% OLP <1% 2025-02-17 2025-02-18 PCPO 55% NDP 45% OLP <1% 2025-02-18 2025-02-19 PCPO 62% NDP 38% OLP <1% 2025-02-19 2025-02-20 PCPO 63% NDP 37% OLP <1% 2025-02-20 2025-02-21 PCPO 61% NDP 39% OLP <1% 2025-02-21 2025-02-22 PCPO 56% NDP 44% OLP <1% 2025-02-22 2025-02-23 PCPO 56% NDP 44% OLP <1% 2025-02-23 2025-02-24 PCPO 56% NDP 44% OLP <1% 2025-02-24 2025-02-25 PCPO 56% NDP 44% OLP <1% 2025-02-25 2025-02-26 PCPO 65% NDP 35% OLP <1% 2025-02-26 2025-02-27 PCPO 54% NDP 46% OLP <1% 2025-02-27 2025-02-28 NDP 93% PCPO 7% OLP <1% 2025-02-28

Recent electoral history | Hamilton West—Ancaster—Dundas



2014 2018 2022 Proj. NDP 24.9% 43.2% 40.6% 39% ± 0% PCPO 25.8% 31.0% 32.7% 34% ± 0% OLP 43.2% 19.8% 18.3% 22% ± 0% GPO 4.9% 4.2% 5.3% 4% ± 0% NBPO 0.0% 0.0% 2.0% 1% ± 0%