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Recent electoral history | Kitchener Centre


2018 2022 2025 Projection GPO 50% ± 11% 6.8% 12.8% 51.4% PC 26% ± 8% 27.7% 26.7% 24.2% OLP 14% ± 6% 20.1% 14.7% 14.3% NDP 7% ± 4% 43.4% 40.6% 6.8% NBPO 2% ± 2% 0.0% 5.3% 2.0% ONP 1% ± 1% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% IND 0% ± 1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.4%

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338Canada Kitchener Centre projection

Latest update: February 18, 2026

Kitchener Centre 39% 61% 50% ± 11% GPO 18% 34% 26% ± 8% PC 8% 20% 14% ± 6% OLP 3% 11% 7% ± 4% NDP GPO 2025 51.39% 338Canada Popular vote projection | February 18, 2026
Methodology note. This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Kitchener Centre >99% GPO <1% PC <1% OLP Odds of winning | February 18, 2026
Methodology note. These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of simulated elections.


Popular vote projection | Kitchener Centre

OLP 14% ± 6% PC 26% ± 8% NDP 7% ± 4% GPO 50% ± 11% Popular vote projection % | Kitchener Centre 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 2026► 2026-01-01 2026-03-01 2026-05-01 2026-07-01 Election 2025 OLP PC NDP GPO February 18, 2026 2025-01-27 GPO 39% PC 26% NDP 23% OLP 11% 2025-01-27 2025-01-29 GPO 40% PC 26% NDP 23% OLP 11% 2025-01-29 2025-01-31 GPO 37% PC 29% NDP 23% OLP 10% 2025-01-31 2025-02-02 GPO 37% PC 29% NDP 22% OLP 10% 2025-02-02 2025-02-03 GPO 37% PC 29% NDP 23% OLP 11% 2025-02-03 2025-02-04 GPO 37% PC 29% NDP 22% OLP 11% 2025-02-04 2025-02-05 GPO 37% PC 29% NDP 22% OLP 11% 2025-02-05 2025-02-06 GPO 37% PC 30% NDP 22% OLP 11% 2025-02-06 2025-02-07 GPO 37% PC 30% NDP 22% OLP 11% 2025-02-07 2025-02-08 GPO 37% PC 29% NDP 22% OLP 11% 2025-02-08 2025-02-09 GPO 37% PC 29% NDP 22% OLP 10% 2025-02-09 2025-02-10 GPO 37% PC 29% NDP 22% OLP 11% 2025-02-10 2025-02-11 GPO 38% PC 30% NDP 21% OLP 11% 2025-02-11 2025-02-12 GPO 38% PC 30% NDP 21% OLP 11% 2025-02-12 2025-02-13 GPO 36% PC 30% NDP 20% OLP 12% 2025-02-13 2025-02-14 GPO 36% PC 30% NDP 20% OLP 12% 2025-02-14 2025-02-15 GPO 36% PC 30% NDP 20% OLP 12% 2025-02-15 2025-02-16 GPO 36% PC 30% NDP 20% OLP 12% 2025-02-16 2025-02-17 GPO 36% PC 29% NDP 20% OLP 12% 2025-02-17 2025-02-18 GPO 36% PC 29% NDP 20% OLP 12% 2025-02-18 2025-02-19 GPO 36% PC 30% NDP 20% OLP 12% 2025-02-19 2025-02-20 GPO 36% PC 30% NDP 20% OLP 12% 2025-02-20 2025-02-21 GPO 35% PC 31% NDP 20% OLP 12% 2025-02-21 2025-02-22 GPO 34% PC 31% NDP 21% OLP 11% 2025-02-22 2025-02-23 GPO 34% PC 31% NDP 21% OLP 11% 2025-02-23 2025-02-24 GPO 34% PC 31% NDP 21% OLP 11% 2025-02-24 2025-02-25 GPO 34% PC 31% NDP 21% OLP 11% 2025-02-25 2025-02-26 GPO 34% PC 32% NDP 21% OLP 11% 2025-02-26 2025-02-27 GPO 33% PC 32% NDP 21% OLP 11% 2025-02-27 2025-02-28 GPO 51% PC 24% OLP 14% NDP 7% 2025-02-28 2025-06-07 GPO 51% PC 24% OLP 14% NDP 7% 2025-06-07 2025-06-27 GPO 51% PC 24% OLP 14% NDP 7% 2025-06-27 2025-07-27 GPO 51% PC 25% OLP 14% NDP 7% 2025-07-27 2025-08-31 GPO 49% PC 28% OLP 14% NDP 6% 2025-08-31 2025-10-21 GPO 49% PC 28% OLP 14% NDP 6% 2025-10-21 2025-11-23 GPO 50% PC 27% OLP 14% NDP 6% 2025-11-23 2025-12-20 GPO 50% PC 26% OLP 14% NDP 7% 2025-12-20 2026-01-25 GPO 50% PC 26% OLP 14% NDP 7% 2026-01-25 2026-02-18 GPO 50% PC 26% OLP 14% NDP 7% 2026-02-18

Odds of winning | Kitchener Centre

OLP <1% PC <1% NDP <1% GPO >99% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 2026► 2026-01-01 2026-03-01 2026-05-01 2026-07-01 Election 2025 OLP PC NDP GPO February 18, 2026 2025-01-27 GPO 98% PC 2% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-01-27 2025-01-29 GPO 98% PC 2% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-01-29 2025-01-31 GPO 90% PC 9% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-01-31 2025-02-02 GPO 89% PC 10% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-02 2025-02-03 GPO 90% PC 10% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-03 2025-02-04 GPO 90% PC 10% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-04 2025-02-05 GPO 89% PC 11% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-05 2025-02-06 GPO 88% PC 12% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-06 2025-02-07 GPO 88% PC 12% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-07 2025-02-08 GPO 89% PC 11% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-08 2025-02-09 GPO 89% PC 11% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-09 2025-02-10 GPO 89% PC 11% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-10 2025-02-11 GPO 89% PC 11% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-11 2025-02-12 GPO 89% PC 11% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-12 2025-02-13 GPO 82% PC 18% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-13 2025-02-14 GPO 82% PC 18% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-14 2025-02-15 GPO 83% PC 17% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-15 2025-02-16 GPO 83% PC 17% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-16 2025-02-17 GPO 88% PC 12% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-17 2025-02-18 GPO 87% PC 13% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-18 2025-02-19 GPO 83% PC 17% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-19 2025-02-20 GPO 83% PC 17% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-20 2025-02-21 GPO 76% PC 24% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-21 2025-02-22 GPO 68% PC 32% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-22 2025-02-23 GPO 68% PC 32% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-23 2025-02-24 GPO 67% PC 33% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-24 2025-02-25 GPO 68% PC 32% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-25 2025-02-26 GPO 63% PC 37% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-26 2025-02-27 GPO 56% PC 44% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-27 2025-02-28 GPO >99% NDP <1% PC <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-28 2025-06-07 GPO >99% NDP <1% PC <1% OLP <1% 2025-06-07 2025-06-27 GPO >99% PC <1% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-06-27 2025-07-27 GPO >99% PC <1% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-07-27 2025-08-31 GPO >99% PC <1% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-08-31 2025-10-21 GPO >99% PC <1% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-10-21 2025-11-23 GPO >99% PC <1% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-11-23 2025-12-20 GPO >99% PC <1% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-12-20 2026-01-25 GPO >99% PC <1% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2026-01-25 2026-02-18 GPO >99% PC <1% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2026-02-18