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Ontario

Kitchener Centre


MPP: Clancy, Aislinn (GPO)

Latest projection: May 3, 2024
Likely GPO
Kitchener Centre 44% ± 12% GPO 25% ± 8%▲ PCPO 19% ± 7%▼ NDP 11% ± 5% OLP NDP 2022 40.6% 338Canada Popular vote projection | May 3, 2024
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by profesional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Kitchener Centre >99% GPO <1% PCPO <1% NDP Odds of winning | May 3, 2024
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).


Popular vote projection | Kitchener Centre

OLP 11% ± 5% PCPO 25% ± 8% NDP 19% ± 7% GPO 44% ± 12% Popular vote projection % | Kitchener Centre 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2022-05-01 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 Election 2022 OLP PCPO NDP GPO

Odds of winning | Kitchener Centre

OLP <1% PCPO <1% NDP <1% GPO >99% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2022-05-01 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 Election 2022 OLP PCPO NDP GPO

Recent electoral history | Kitchener Centre



2014 2018 2022 Proj. NDP 26.8% 43.4% 40.6% 19% ± 7% PCPO 25.2% 27.7% 26.7% 25% ± 8% OLP 40.5% 20.1% 14.7% 11% ± 5% GPO 6.3% 6.8% 12.8% 44% ± 12% NBPO 0.0% 0.0% 5.3% 1% ± 2%