logo
logo
Ontario

Kitchener Centre


MPP: Clancy, Aislinn (GPO)

Latest projection: January 20, 2025
Likely GPO
Kitchener Centre 42% ± 11%▼ GPO 26% ± 8% PCPO 20% ± 7%▲ NDP 11% ± 5%▲ OLP NDP 2022 40.6% 338Canada Popular vote projection | January 20, 2025
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Kitchener Centre 99% GPO 1% PCPO <1% NDP Odds of winning | January 20, 2025
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).


Popular vote projection | Kitchener Centre

OLP 11% ± 5% PCPO 26% ± 8% NDP 20% ± 7% GPO 42% ± 11% Popular vote projection % | Kitchener Centre 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 2025-09-01 OLP PCPO NDP GPO January 20, 2025 2023-02-15 NDP 38% PCPO 26% OLP 15% GPO 15% 2023-02-15 2023-03-09 NDP 38% PCPO 26% OLP 16% GPO 15% 2023-03-09 2023-03-17 NDP 38% PCPO 26% OLP 16% GPO 14% 2023-03-17 2023-04-16 NDP 39% PCPO 26% OLP 15% GPO 14% 2023-04-16 2023-07-07 NDP 40% PCPO 23% GPO 17% OLP 15% 2023-07-07 2023-07-22 NDP 41% PCPO 23% GPO 16% OLP 15% 2023-07-22 2023-07-28 NDP 40% PCPO 24% GPO 15% OLP 15% 2023-07-28 2023-08-26 NDP 40% PCPO 24% GPO 15% OLP 15% 2023-08-26 2023-10-07 NDP 41% PCPO 23% OLP 16% GPO 15% 2023-10-07 2023-10-23 NDP 41% PCPO 24% OLP 15% GPO 15% 2023-10-23 2023-12-01 GPO 47% NDP 25% PCPO 17% OLP 10% 2023-12-01 2023-12-20 GPO 47% NDP 24% PCPO 17% OLP 11% 2023-12-20 2024-02-02 GPO 46% NDP 24% PCPO 17% OLP 11% 2024-02-02 2024-02-20 GPO 48% NDP 22% PCPO 16% OLP 13% 2024-02-20 2024-03-05 GPO 45% PCPO 23% NDP 19% OLP 12% 2024-03-05 2024-04-04 GPO 44% PCPO 23% NDP 20% OLP 11% 2024-04-04 2024-05-03 GPO 44% PCPO 25% NDP 19% OLP 11% 2024-05-03 2024-06-30 GPO 44% PCPO 25% NDP 19% OLP 10% 2024-06-30 2024-07-29 GPO 44% PCPO 26% NDP 18% OLP 10% 2024-07-29 2024-10-09 GPO 45% PCPO 25% NDP 18% OLP 10% 2024-10-09 2024-11-11 GPO 44% PCPO 26% NDP 18% OLP 10% 2024-11-11 2024-12-15 GPO 44% PCPO 26% NDP 19% OLP 10% 2024-12-15 2025-01-20 GPO 42% PCPO 26% NDP 20% OLP 11% 2025-01-20 ▼ Stiles NDP leader ▼ Crombie OLP leader

Odds of winning | Kitchener Centre

OLP <1% PCPO 1% NDP <1% GPO 99% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 2025-09-01 OLP PCPO NDP GPO January 20, 2025 2023-02-15 NDP 98% PCPO 2% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2023-02-15 2023-03-09 NDP 98% PCPO 2% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2023-03-09 2023-03-17 NDP 98% PCPO 2% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2023-03-17 2023-04-16 NDP 99% PCPO 1% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2023-04-16 2023-07-07 NDP >99% PCPO <1% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2023-07-07 2023-07-22 NDP >99% PCPO <1% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2023-07-22 2023-07-28 NDP >99% PCPO <1% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2023-07-28 2023-08-26 NDP >99% PCPO <1% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2023-08-26 2023-10-07 NDP >99% PCPO <1% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2023-10-07 2023-10-23 NDP >99% PCPO <1% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2023-10-23 2023-12-01 GPO >99% NDP <1% PCPO <1% OLP <1% 2023-12-01 2023-12-20 GPO >99% NDP <1% PCPO <1% OLP <1% 2023-12-20 2024-02-02 GPO >99% NDP <1% PCPO <1% OLP <1% 2024-02-02 2024-02-20 GPO >99% NDP <1% PCPO <1% OLP <1% 2024-02-20 2024-03-05 GPO >99% PCPO <1% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2024-03-05 2024-04-04 GPO >99% PCPO <1% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2024-04-04 2024-05-03 GPO >99% PCPO <1% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2024-05-03 2024-06-30 GPO >99% PCPO <1% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2024-06-30 2024-07-29 GPO >99% PCPO <1% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2024-07-29 2024-10-09 GPO >99% PCPO <1% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2024-10-09 2024-11-11 GPO >99% PCPO <1% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2024-11-11 2024-12-15 GPO 99% PCPO 1% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2024-12-15 2025-01-20 GPO 99% PCPO 1% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-01-20 ▼ Stiles NDP leader ▼ Crombie OLP leader

Recent electoral history | Kitchener Centre



2014 2018 2022 Proj. NDP 26.8% 43.4% 40.6% 20% ± 7% PCPO 25.2% 27.7% 26.7% 26% ± 8% OLP 40.5% 20.1% 14.7% 11% ± 5% GPO 6.3% 6.8% 12.8% 42% ± 11% NBPO 0.0% 0.0% 5.3% 1% ± 1%