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Ontario

Kitchener Centre


MPP: Clancy, Aislinn (GPO)
Latest projection: February 20, 2025
Leaning GPO

Candidates | Kitchener Centre


PC Party of Ontario Rob Elliott
Liberal Party Colleen James
Ontario NDP Brooklin Wallis
Green Party Aislinn Clancy
New Blue Party Paul Simoes
Ontario Party Sebastian Butnar-Stoica
Independent Christopher Nuhn

Candidates listed here are on the Elections Ontario website.

Kitchener Centre 36% ± 10% GPO 30% ± 8% PCPO 20% ± 7% NDP 12% ± 5% OLP NDP 2022 40.6% 338Canada Popular vote projection | February 20, 2025
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Kitchener Centre 83% GPO 17% PCPO <1% NDP Odds of winning | February 20, 2025
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).


Popular vote projection | Kitchener Centre

OLP 12% ± 5% PCPO 30% ± 8% NDP 20% ± 7% GPO 36% ± 10% Popular vote projection % | Kitchener Centre 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2025-02-01 2025-02-15 2025-03-01 Election 2025 Campaign begins OLP PCPO NDP GPO February 20, 2025 2025-01-27 GPO 39% PCPO 26% NDP 23% OLP 11% 2025-01-27 2025-01-29 GPO 40% PCPO 26% NDP 23% OLP 11% 2025-01-29 2025-01-31 GPO 37% PCPO 29% NDP 23% OLP 10% 2025-01-31 2025-02-02 GPO 37% PCPO 29% NDP 22% OLP 10% 2025-02-02 2025-02-03 GPO 37% PCPO 29% NDP 23% OLP 11% 2025-02-03 2025-02-04 GPO 37% PCPO 29% NDP 22% OLP 11% 2025-02-04 2025-02-05 GPO 37% PCPO 29% NDP 22% OLP 11% 2025-02-05 2025-02-06 GPO 37% PCPO 30% NDP 22% OLP 11% 2025-02-06 2025-02-07 GPO 37% PCPO 30% NDP 22% OLP 11% 2025-02-07 2025-02-08 GPO 37% PCPO 29% NDP 22% OLP 11% 2025-02-08 2025-02-09 GPO 37% PCPO 29% NDP 22% OLP 10% 2025-02-09 2025-02-10 GPO 37% PCPO 29% NDP 22% OLP 11% 2025-02-10 2025-02-11 GPO 38% PCPO 30% NDP 21% OLP 11% 2025-02-11 2025-02-12 GPO 38% PCPO 30% NDP 21% OLP 11% 2025-02-12 2025-02-13 GPO 36% PCPO 30% NDP 20% OLP 12% 2025-02-13 2025-02-14 GPO 36% PCPO 30% NDP 20% OLP 12% 2025-02-14 2025-02-15 GPO 36% PCPO 30% NDP 20% OLP 12% 2025-02-15 2025-02-16 GPO 36% PCPO 30% NDP 20% OLP 12% 2025-02-16 2025-02-17 GPO 36% PCPO 29% NDP 20% OLP 12% 2025-02-17 2025-02-18 GPO 36% PCPO 29% NDP 20% OLP 12% 2025-02-18 2025-02-19 GPO 36% PCPO 30% NDP 20% OLP 12% 2025-02-19 2025-02-20 GPO 36% PCPO 30% NDP 20% OLP 12% 2025-02-20

Odds of winning | Kitchener Centre

OLP <1% PCPO 17% NDP <1% GPO 83% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2025-02-01 2025-02-15 2025-03-01 Election 2025 Campaign begins OLP PCPO NDP GPO February 20, 2025 2025-01-27 GPO 98% PCPO 2% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-01-27 2025-01-29 GPO 98% PCPO 2% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-01-29 2025-01-31 GPO 90% PCPO 9% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-01-31 2025-02-02 GPO 89% PCPO 10% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-02 2025-02-03 GPO 90% PCPO 10% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-03 2025-02-04 GPO 90% PCPO 10% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-04 2025-02-05 GPO 89% PCPO 11% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-05 2025-02-06 GPO 88% PCPO 12% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-06 2025-02-07 GPO 88% PCPO 12% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-07 2025-02-08 GPO 89% PCPO 11% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-08 2025-02-09 GPO 89% PCPO 11% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-09 2025-02-10 GPO 89% PCPO 11% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-10 2025-02-11 GPO 89% PCPO 11% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-11 2025-02-12 GPO 89% PCPO 11% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-12 2025-02-13 GPO 82% PCPO 18% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-13 2025-02-14 GPO 82% PCPO 18% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-14 2025-02-15 GPO 83% PCPO 17% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-15 2025-02-16 GPO 83% PCPO 17% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-16 2025-02-17 GPO 88% PCPO 12% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-17 2025-02-18 GPO 87% PCPO 13% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-18 2025-02-19 GPO 83% PCPO 17% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-19 2025-02-20 GPO 83% PCPO 17% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-20

Recent electoral history | Kitchener Centre



2014 2018 2022 Proj. NDP 26.8% 43.4% 40.6% 20% ± 7% PCPO 25.2% 27.7% 26.7% 30% ± 8% OLP 40.5% 20.1% 14.7% 12% ± 5% GPO 6.3% 6.8% 12.8% 36% ± 10% NBPO 0.0% 0.0% 5.3% 1% ± 1% ONP 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1% ± 1%