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Ontario

Renfrew—Nipissing—Pembroke


MPP: Yakabuski, John (PCPO)
Latest projection: February 20, 2025
Safe PCPO

Candidates | Renfrew—Nipissing—Pembroke


PC Party of Ontario Billy Denault
Liberal Party Oliver Jacob
Ontario NDP Marshall Buchanan
Green Party Anna Maria Dolan
New Blue Party Mark Dickson
Ontario Party Kevin Holm

Candidates listed here are on the Elections Ontario website.

Renfrew—Nipissing—Pembroke 68% ± 8% PCPO 13% ± 5% NDP 12% ± 5% OLP 4% ± 3% GPO PCPO 2022 61.1% 338Canada Popular vote projection | February 20, 2025
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Renfrew—Nipissing—Pembroke >99% PCPO <1% NDP <1% OLP Odds of winning | February 20, 2025
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).


Popular vote projection | Renfrew—Nipissing—Pembroke

OLP 12% ± 5% PCPO 68% ± 8% NDP 13% ± 5% GPO 4% ± 3% Popular vote projection % | Renfrew—Nipissing—Pembroke 75 70 65 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2025-02-01 2025-02-15 2025-03-01 Election 2025 Campaign begins OLP PCPO NDP GPO February 20, 2025 2025-01-27 PCPO 62% NDP 16% OLP 11% GPO 5% 2025-01-27 2025-01-29 PCPO 63% NDP 16% OLP 11% GPO 5% 2025-01-29 2025-01-31 PCPO 66% NDP 16% OLP 11% GPO 4% 2025-01-31 2025-02-02 PCPO 66% NDP 15% OLP 11% GPO 4% 2025-02-02 2025-02-03 PCPO 65% NDP 16% OLP 11% GPO 4% 2025-02-03 2025-02-04 PCPO 66% NDP 14% OLP 12% GPO 4% 2025-02-04 2025-02-05 PCPO 66% NDP 14% OLP 12% GPO 4% 2025-02-05 2025-02-06 PCPO 67% NDP 14% OLP 11% GPO 4% 2025-02-06 2025-02-07 PCPO 66% NDP 14% OLP 11% GPO 4% 2025-02-07 2025-02-08 PCPO 66% NDP 14% OLP 12% GPO 4% 2025-02-08 2025-02-09 PCPO 66% NDP 15% OLP 11% GPO 4% 2025-02-09 2025-02-10 PCPO 66% NDP 14% OLP 11% GPO 4% 2025-02-10 2025-02-11 PCPO 67% NDP 14% OLP 12% GPO 4% 2025-02-11 2025-02-12 PCPO 67% NDP 13% OLP 12% GPO 4% 2025-02-12 2025-02-13 PCPO 67% NDP 13% OLP 12% GPO 4% 2025-02-13 2025-02-14 PCPO 67% NDP 13% OLP 12% GPO 4% 2025-02-14 2025-02-15 PCPO 68% NDP 13% OLP 12% GPO 4% 2025-02-15 2025-02-16 PCPO 68% NDP 13% OLP 12% GPO 4% 2025-02-16 2025-02-17 PCPO 67% NDP 13% OLP 12% GPO 4% 2025-02-17 2025-02-18 PCPO 67% NDP 13% OLP 12% GPO 4% 2025-02-18 2025-02-19 PCPO 68% NDP 13% OLP 12% GPO 4% 2025-02-19 2025-02-20 PCPO 68% NDP 13% OLP 12% GPO 4% 2025-02-20

Odds of winning | Renfrew—Nipissing—Pembroke

OLP <1% PCPO >99% NDP <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2025-02-01 2025-02-15 2025-03-01 Election 2025 Campaign begins OLP PCPO NDP February 20, 2025 2025-01-27 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-01-27 2025-01-29 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-01-29 2025-01-31 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-01-31 2025-02-02 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-02 2025-02-03 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-03 2025-02-04 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-04 2025-02-05 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-05 2025-02-06 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-06 2025-02-07 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-07 2025-02-08 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-08 2025-02-09 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-09 2025-02-10 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-10 2025-02-11 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-11 2025-02-12 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-12 2025-02-13 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-13 2025-02-14 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-14 2025-02-15 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-15 2025-02-16 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-16 2025-02-17 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-17 2025-02-18 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-18 2025-02-19 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-19 2025-02-20 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-20

Recent electoral history | Renfrew—Nipissing—Pembroke



2014 2018 2022 Proj. PCPO 61.1% 69.2% 61.1% 68% ± 8% NDP 14.5% 16.7% 17.1% 13% ± 5% OLP 19.1% 9.8% 9.8% 12% ± 5% NBPO 0.0% 0.0% 4.6% 2% ± 2% GPO 3.2% 3.0% 3.7% 4% ± 3% ONP 0.0% 0.0% 2.9% 1% ± 1%