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Ontario

Markham—Stouffville


MPP: Calandra, Paul (PCPO)

Latest projection: January 20, 2025
Likely PCPO
Markham—Stouffville 47% ± 9%▼ PCPO 38% ± 9%▲ OLP 9% ± 4% NDP 4% ± 3%▼ GPO PCPO 2022 48.4% 338Canada Popular vote projection | January 20, 2025
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Markham—Stouffville 92%▼ PCPO 8%▲ OLP <1% NDP Odds of winning | January 20, 2025
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).


Popular vote projection | Markham—Stouffville

OLP 38% ± 9% PCPO 47% ± 9% NDP 9% ± 4% GPO 4% ± 3% Popular vote projection % | Markham—Stouffville 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 2025-09-01 OLP PCPO NDP GPO January 20, 2025 2023-02-15 PCPO 48% OLP 36% NDP 9% GPO 4% 2023-02-15 2023-03-09 PCPO 47% OLP 37% NDP 9% GPO 4% 2023-03-09 2023-03-17 PCPO 47% OLP 37% NDP 9% GPO 4% 2023-03-17 2023-04-16 PCPO 47% OLP 36% NDP 9% GPO 4% 2023-04-16 2023-07-07 PCPO 44% OLP 37% NDP 10% GPO 6% 2023-07-07 2023-07-22 PCPO 44% OLP 37% NDP 10% GPO 6% 2023-07-22 2023-07-28 PCPO 45% OLP 37% NDP 10% GPO 5% 2023-07-28 2023-08-26 PCPO 45% OLP 37% NDP 10% GPO 5% 2023-08-26 2023-10-07 PCPO 43% OLP 39% NDP 10% GPO 5% 2023-10-07 2023-10-23 PCPO 45% OLP 37% NDP 10% GPO 5% 2023-10-23 2023-12-01 PCPO 48% OLP 35% NDP 10% GPO 5% 2023-12-01 2023-12-20 PCPO 46% OLP 37% NDP 10% GPO 5% 2023-12-20 2024-02-02 PCPO 46% OLP 38% NDP 9% GPO 5% 2024-02-02 2024-02-20 PCPO 44% OLP 40% NDP 9% GPO 5% 2024-02-20 2024-03-05 PCPO 45% OLP 39% NDP 9% GPO 5% 2024-03-05 2024-04-04 PCPO 46% OLP 38% NDP 9% GPO 5% 2024-04-04 2024-05-03 PCPO 47% OLP 37% NDP 9% GPO 5% 2024-05-03 2024-06-30 PCPO 48% OLP 35% NDP 9% GPO 5% 2024-06-30 2024-07-29 PCPO 50% OLP 35% NDP 9% GPO 5% 2024-07-29 2024-10-09 PCPO 48% OLP 36% NDP 9% GPO 5% 2024-10-09 2024-11-11 PCPO 49% OLP 35% NDP 9% GPO 5% 2024-11-11 2024-12-15 PCPO 51% OLP 34% NDP 9% GPO 5% 2024-12-15 2025-01-20 PCPO 47% OLP 38% NDP 9% GPO 4% 2025-01-20 Stiles NDP leader Crombie OLP leader

Odds of winning | Markham—Stouffville

OLP 8% PCPO 92% NDP <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 2025-09-01 OLP PCPO NDP January 20, 2025 2023-02-15 PCPO 96% OLP 4% NDP <1% 2023-02-15 2023-03-09 PCPO 94% OLP 6% NDP <1% 2023-03-09 2023-03-17 PCPO 95% OLP 5% NDP <1% 2023-03-17 2023-04-16 PCPO 97% OLP 3% NDP <1% 2023-04-16 2023-07-07 PCPO 88% OLP 12% NDP <1% 2023-07-07 2023-07-22 PCPO 88% OLP 12% NDP <1% 2023-07-22 2023-07-28 PCPO 92% OLP 8% NDP <1% 2023-07-28 2023-08-26 PCPO 93% OLP 7% NDP <1% 2023-08-26 2023-10-07 PCPO 75% OLP 25% NDP <1% 2023-10-07 2023-10-23 PCPO 93% OLP 7% NDP <1% 2023-10-23 2023-12-01 PCPO 98% OLP 2% NDP <1% 2023-12-01 2023-12-20 PCPO 93% OLP 7% NDP <1% 2023-12-20 2024-02-02 PCPO 90% OLP 10% NDP <1% 2024-02-02 2024-02-20 PCPO 70% OLP 30% NDP <1% 2024-02-20 2024-03-05 PCPO 85% OLP 15% NDP <1% 2024-03-05 2024-04-04 PCPO 92% OLP 8% NDP <1% 2024-04-04 2024-05-03 PCPO 95% OLP 5% NDP <1% 2024-05-03 2024-06-30 PCPO 98% OLP 2% NDP <1% 2024-06-30 2024-07-29 PCPO 99% OLP 1% NDP <1% 2024-07-29 2024-10-09 PCPO 98% OLP 2% NDP <1% 2024-10-09 2024-11-11 PCPO 99% OLP 1% NDP <1% 2024-11-11 2024-12-15 PCPO >99% OLP <1% NDP <1% 2024-12-15 2025-01-20 PCPO 92% OLP 8% NDP <1% 2025-01-20 Stiles NDP leader Crombie OLP leader

Recent electoral history | Markham—Stouffville



2014 2018 2022 Proj. PCPO 34.1% 48.1% 48.4% 47% ± 9% OLP 48.5% 26.0% 35.5% 38% ± 9% NDP 12.1% 20.4% 9.5% 9% ± 4% GPO 3.7% 4.0% 3.9% 4% ± 3% NBPO 0.0% 0.0% 1.5% 1% ± 1% ONP 0.0% 0.0% 1.2% 1% ± 1%