logo
Ontario

Markham—Stouffville


MPP elect: Paul Calandra (PCPO)
Latest projection: February 28, 2025
Likely PCPO

Candidates | Markham—Stouffville


PC Party of Ontario Paul Calandra
Liberal Party Kelly Dunn
Ontario NDP Gregory Hines
Green Party Myles O'Brien
New Blue Party Brendan Sorenson

Candidates listed here are on the Elections Ontario website.

Markham—Stouffville 51% ± 0%▲ PCPO 41% ± 0%▲ OLP 5% ± 0%▼ NDP PCPO 2022 48.4% 338Canada Popular vote projection | February 28, 2025
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Markham—Stouffville 99%▲ PCPO 1%▼ OLP <1% NDP Odds of winning | February 28, 2025
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).


Popular vote projection | Markham—Stouffville

OLP 41% ± 0% PCPO 51% ± 0% NDP 5% ± 0% Popular vote projection % | Markham—Stouffville 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2025-02-01 2025-02-15 2025-03-01 Election 2025 Campaign begins OLP PCPO NDP February 28, 2025 2025-01-27 PCPO 48% OLP 37% NDP 9% 2025-01-27 2025-01-29 PCPO 48% OLP 37% NDP 9% 2025-01-29 2025-01-31 PCPO 50% OLP 36% NDP 9% 2025-01-31 2025-02-02 PCPO 51% OLP 35% NDP 9% 2025-02-02 2025-02-03 PCPO 50% OLP 36% NDP 9% 2025-02-03 2025-02-04 PCPO 50% OLP 37% NDP 8% 2025-02-04 2025-02-05 PCPO 50% OLP 37% NDP 8% 2025-02-05 2025-02-06 PCPO 51% OLP 36% NDP 8% 2025-02-06 2025-02-07 PCPO 51% OLP 36% NDP 8% 2025-02-07 2025-02-08 PCPO 48% OLP 38% NDP 8% 2025-02-08 2025-02-09 PCPO 49% OLP 37% NDP 8% 2025-02-09 2025-02-10 PCPO 49% OLP 38% NDP 8% 2025-02-10 2025-02-11 PCPO 49% OLP 38% NDP 8% 2025-02-11 2025-02-12 PCPO 48% OLP 39% NDP 7% 2025-02-12 2025-02-13 PCPO 49% OLP 39% NDP 8% 2025-02-13 2025-02-14 PCPO 49% OLP 39% NDP 7% 2025-02-14 2025-02-15 PCPO 49% OLP 39% NDP 7% 2025-02-15 2025-02-16 PCPO 49% OLP 39% NDP 7% 2025-02-16 2025-02-17 PCPO 48% OLP 40% NDP 7% 2025-02-17 2025-02-18 PCPO 48% OLP 40% NDP 7% 2025-02-18 2025-02-19 PCPO 49% OLP 39% NDP 7% 2025-02-19 2025-02-20 PCPO 49% OLP 39% NDP 7% 2025-02-20 2025-02-21 PCPO 49% OLP 39% NDP 7% 2025-02-21 2025-02-22 PCPO 49% OLP 39% NDP 7% 2025-02-22 2025-02-23 PCPO 49% OLP 39% NDP 7% 2025-02-23 2025-02-24 PCPO 49% OLP 39% NDP 7% 2025-02-24 2025-02-25 PCPO 49% OLP 39% NDP 7% 2025-02-25 2025-02-26 PCPO 49% OLP 39% NDP 7% 2025-02-26 2025-02-27 PCPO 49% OLP 39% NDP 7% 2025-02-27 2025-02-28 PCPO 51% OLP 41% NDP 5% 2025-02-28

Odds of winning | Markham—Stouffville

OLP 1% PCPO 99% NDP <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2025-02-01 2025-02-15 2025-03-01 Election 2025 Campaign begins OLP PCPO NDP February 28, 2025 2025-01-27 PCPO 96% OLP 4% NDP <1% 2025-01-27 2025-01-29 PCPO 97% OLP 3% NDP <1% 2025-01-29 2025-01-31 PCPO 99% OLP 1% NDP <1% 2025-01-31 2025-02-02 PCPO 99% OLP 1% NDP <1% 2025-02-02 2025-02-03 PCPO 99% OLP 1% NDP <1% 2025-02-03 2025-02-04 PCPO 98% OLP 2% NDP <1% 2025-02-04 2025-02-05 PCPO 98% OLP 2% NDP <1% 2025-02-05 2025-02-06 PCPO 99% OLP 1% NDP <1% 2025-02-06 2025-02-07 PCPO 99% OLP 1% NDP <1% 2025-02-07 2025-02-08 PCPO 94% OLP 6% NDP <1% 2025-02-08 2025-02-09 PCPO 97% OLP 3% NDP <1% 2025-02-09 2025-02-10 PCPO 96% OLP 4% NDP <1% 2025-02-10 2025-02-11 PCPO 95% OLP 5% NDP <1% 2025-02-11 2025-02-12 PCPO 94% OLP 6% NDP <1% 2025-02-12 2025-02-13 PCPO 94% OLP 6% NDP <1% 2025-02-13 2025-02-14 PCPO 93% OLP 7% NDP <1% 2025-02-14 2025-02-15 PCPO 95% OLP 5% NDP <1% 2025-02-15 2025-02-16 PCPO 96% OLP 4% NDP <1% 2025-02-16 2025-02-17 PCPO 90% OLP 10% NDP <1% 2025-02-17 2025-02-18 PCPO 89% OLP 11% NDP <1% 2025-02-18 2025-02-19 PCPO 93% OLP 7% NDP <1% 2025-02-19 2025-02-20 PCPO 94% OLP 6% NDP <1% 2025-02-20 2025-02-21 PCPO 93% OLP 7% NDP <1% 2025-02-21 2025-02-22 PCPO 95% OLP 5% NDP <1% 2025-02-22 2025-02-23 PCPO 94% OLP 6% NDP <1% 2025-02-23 2025-02-24 PCPO 95% OLP 5% NDP <1% 2025-02-24 2025-02-25 PCPO 95% OLP 5% NDP <1% 2025-02-25 2025-02-26 PCPO 96% OLP 4% NDP <1% 2025-02-26 2025-02-27 PCPO 95% OLP 5% NDP <1% 2025-02-27 2025-02-28 PCPO 99% OLP 1% NDP <1% 2025-02-28

Recent electoral history | Markham—Stouffville



2014 2018 2022 Proj. PCPO 34.1% 48.1% 48.4% 51% ± 0% OLP 48.5% 26.0% 35.5% 41% ± 0% NDP 12.1% 20.4% 9.5% 5% ± 0% GPO 3.7% 4.0% 3.9% 2% ± 0% NBPO 0.0% 0.0% 1.5% 1% ± 0%