logo
logo
Ontario

Markham—Stouffville


MPP: Calandra, Paul (PCPO)

Latest projection: December 15, 2024
Likely PCPO
Markham—Stouffville 51% ± 9%▲ PCPO 34% ± 9%▼ OLP 9% ± 4% NDP 5% ± 3% GPO PCPO 2022 48.4% 338Canada Popular vote projection | December 15, 2024
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Markham—Stouffville >99%▲ PCPO <1%▼ OLP <1% NDP Odds of winning | December 15, 2024
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).


Popular vote projection | Markham—Stouffville

OLP 34% ± 9% PCPO 51% ± 9% NDP 9% ± 4% GPO 5% ± 3% Popular vote projection % | Markham—Stouffville 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2022-05-01 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 2025-09-01 Election 2022 OLP PCPO NDP GPO December 15, 2024 2022-04-30 PCPO 43% OLP 40% NDP 9% GPO 3% 2022-04-30 2022-05-03 PCPO 41% OLP 38% NDP 13% GPO 3% 2022-05-03 2022-05-04 PCPO 41% OLP 38% NDP 14% GPO 3% 2022-05-04 2022-05-05 PCPO 42% OLP 38% NDP 14% GPO 3% 2022-05-05 2022-05-06 PCPO 41% OLP 38% NDP 14% GPO 3% 2022-05-06 2022-05-07 PCPO 41% OLP 38% NDP 14% GPO 3% 2022-05-07 2022-05-08 PCPO 41% OLP 39% NDP 13% GPO 3% 2022-05-08 2022-05-09 PCPO 41% OLP 39% NDP 13% GPO 3% 2022-05-09 2022-05-10 PCPO 40% OLP 40% NDP 13% GPO 3% 2022-05-10 2022-05-11 PCPO 42% OLP 38% NDP 13% GPO 3% 2022-05-11 2022-05-12 PCPO 42% OLP 38% NDP 13% GPO 3% 2022-05-12 2022-05-13 PCPO 42% OLP 38% NDP 13% GPO 3% 2022-05-13 2022-05-14 PCPO 42% OLP 39% NDP 13% GPO 3% 2022-05-14 2022-05-15 PCPO 43% OLP 38% NDP 14% GPO 3% 2022-05-15 2022-05-16 PCPO 42% OLP 39% NDP 14% GPO 3% 2022-05-16 2022-05-17 PCPO 42% OLP 39% NDP 13% GPO 3% 2022-05-17 2022-05-18 PCPO 42% OLP 39% NDP 13% GPO 3% 2022-05-18 2022-05-19 PCPO 42% OLP 38% NDP 13% GPO 4% 2022-05-19 2022-05-20 PCPO 41% OLP 37% NDP 14% GPO 4% 2022-05-20 2022-05-21 PCPO 41% OLP 37% NDP 14% GPO 4% 2022-05-21 2022-05-22 PCPO 41% OLP 38% NDP 14% GPO 4% 2022-05-22 2022-05-23 PCPO 42% OLP 37% NDP 14% GPO 4% 2022-05-23 2022-05-24 PCPO 42% OLP 37% NDP 14% GPO 4% 2022-05-24 2022-05-25 PCPO 41% OLP 37% NDP 14% GPO 4% 2022-05-25 2022-05-26 PCPO 41% OLP 37% NDP 14% GPO 4% 2022-05-26 2022-05-27 PCPO 43% OLP 35% NDP 15% GPO 4% 2022-05-27 2022-05-28 PCPO 44% OLP 35% NDP 14% GPO 4% 2022-05-28 2022-05-29 PCPO 44% OLP 35% NDP 14% GPO 4% 2022-05-29 2022-05-30 PCPO 44% OLP 35% NDP 14% GPO 4% 2022-05-30 2022-05-31 PCPO 45% OLP 34% NDP 14% GPO 4% 2022-05-31 2022-06-01 PCPO 47% OLP 33% NDP 13% GPO 4% 2022-06-01 2022-06-03 PCPO 48% OLP 36% NDP 10% GPO 4% 2022-06-03 2022-12-30 PCPO 48% OLP 36% NDP 10% GPO 4% 2022-12-30 2023-02-15 PCPO 48% OLP 36% NDP 9% GPO 4% 2023-02-15 2023-03-09 PCPO 47% OLP 37% NDP 9% GPO 4% 2023-03-09 2023-03-17 PCPO 47% OLP 37% NDP 9% GPO 4% 2023-03-17 2023-04-16 PCPO 47% OLP 36% NDP 9% GPO 4% 2023-04-16 2023-07-07 PCPO 44% OLP 37% NDP 10% GPO 6% 2023-07-07 2023-07-22 PCPO 44% OLP 37% NDP 10% GPO 6% 2023-07-22 2023-07-28 PCPO 45% OLP 37% NDP 10% GPO 5% 2023-07-28 2023-08-26 PCPO 45% OLP 37% NDP 10% GPO 5% 2023-08-26 2023-10-07 PCPO 43% OLP 39% NDP 10% GPO 5% 2023-10-07 2023-10-23 PCPO 45% OLP 37% NDP 10% GPO 5% 2023-10-23 2023-12-01 PCPO 48% OLP 35% NDP 10% GPO 5% 2023-12-01 2023-12-20 PCPO 46% OLP 37% NDP 10% GPO 5% 2023-12-20 2024-02-02 PCPO 46% OLP 38% NDP 9% GPO 5% 2024-02-02 2024-02-20 PCPO 44% OLP 40% NDP 9% GPO 5% 2024-02-20 2024-03-05 PCPO 45% OLP 39% NDP 9% GPO 5% 2024-03-05 2024-04-04 PCPO 46% OLP 38% NDP 9% GPO 5% 2024-04-04 2024-05-03 PCPO 47% OLP 37% NDP 9% GPO 5% 2024-05-03 2024-06-30 PCPO 48% OLP 35% NDP 9% GPO 5% 2024-06-30 2024-07-29 PCPO 50% OLP 35% NDP 9% GPO 5% 2024-07-29 2024-10-09 PCPO 48% OLP 36% NDP 9% GPO 5% 2024-10-09 2024-11-11 PCPO 49% OLP 35% NDP 9% GPO 5% 2024-11-11 2024-12-15 PCPO 51% OLP 34% NDP 9% GPO 5% 2024-12-15

Odds of winning | Markham—Stouffville

OLP <1% PCPO >99% NDP <1% GPO <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2022-05-01 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 2025-09-01 Election 2022 OLP PCPO NDP GPO December 15, 2024 2022-04-30 PCPO 70% OLP 30% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2022-04-30 2022-05-03 PCPO 65% OLP 35% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2022-05-03 2022-05-04 PCPO 70% OLP 30% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2022-05-04 2022-05-05 PCPO 74% OLP 26% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2022-05-05 2022-05-06 PCPO 72% OLP 28% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2022-05-06 2022-05-07 PCPO 70% OLP 30% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2022-05-07 2022-05-08 PCPO 65% OLP 35% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2022-05-08 2022-05-09 PCPO 61% OLP 39% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2022-05-09 2022-05-10 PCPO 53% OLP 47% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2022-05-10 2022-05-11 PCPO 70% OLP 30% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2022-05-11 2022-05-12 PCPO 70% OLP 30% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2022-05-12 2022-05-13 PCPO 73% OLP 27% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2022-05-13 2022-05-14 PCPO 72% OLP 28% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2022-05-14 2022-05-15 PCPO 79% OLP 21% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2022-05-15 2022-05-16 PCPO 68% OLP 32% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2022-05-16 2022-05-17 PCPO 70% OLP 30% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2022-05-17 2022-05-18 PCPO 73% OLP 27% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2022-05-18 2022-05-19 PCPO 75% OLP 25% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2022-05-19 2022-05-20 PCPO 75% OLP 25% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2022-05-20 2022-05-21 PCPO 75% OLP 25% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2022-05-21 2022-05-22 PCPO 73% OLP 27% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2022-05-22 2022-05-23 PCPO 77% OLP 23% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2022-05-23 2022-05-24 PCPO 76% OLP 24% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2022-05-24 2022-05-25 PCPO 77% OLP 23% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2022-05-25 2022-05-26 PCPO 78% OLP 22% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2022-05-26 2022-05-27 PCPO 92% OLP 8% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2022-05-27 2022-05-28 PCPO 94% OLP 6% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2022-05-28 2022-05-29 PCPO 94% OLP 6% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2022-05-29 2022-05-30 PCPO 94% OLP 6% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2022-05-30 2022-05-31 PCPO 97% OLP 3% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2022-05-31 2022-06-01 PCPO >99% OLP <1% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2022-06-01 2022-06-03 PCPO >99% OLP <1% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2022-06-03 2022-12-30 PCPO 97% OLP 3% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2022-12-30 2023-02-15 PCPO 96% OLP 4% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2023-02-15 2023-03-09 PCPO 94% OLP 6% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2023-03-09 2023-03-17 PCPO 95% OLP 5% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2023-03-17 2023-04-16 PCPO 97% OLP 3% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2023-04-16 2023-07-07 PCPO 88% OLP 12% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2023-07-07 2023-07-22 PCPO 88% OLP 12% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2023-07-22 2023-07-28 PCPO 92% OLP 8% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2023-07-28 2023-08-26 PCPO 93% OLP 7% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2023-08-26 2023-10-07 PCPO 75% OLP 25% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2023-10-07 2023-10-23 PCPO 93% OLP 7% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2023-10-23 2023-12-01 PCPO 98% OLP 2% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2023-12-01 2023-12-20 PCPO 93% OLP 7% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2023-12-20 2024-02-02 PCPO 90% OLP 10% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2024-02-02 2024-02-20 PCPO 70% OLP 30% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2024-02-20 2024-03-05 PCPO 85% OLP 15% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2024-03-05 2024-04-04 PCPO 92% OLP 8% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2024-04-04 2024-05-03 PCPO 95% OLP 5% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2024-05-03 2024-06-30 PCPO 98% OLP 2% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2024-06-30 2024-07-29 PCPO 99% OLP 1% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2024-07-29 2024-10-09 PCPO 98% OLP 2% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2024-10-09 2024-11-11 PCPO 99% OLP 1% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2024-11-11 2024-12-15 PCPO >99% OLP <1% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2024-12-15

Recent electoral history | Markham—Stouffville



2014 2018 2022 Proj. PCPO 34.1% 48.1% 48.4% 51% ± 9% OLP 48.5% 26.0% 35.5% 34% ± 9% NDP 12.1% 20.4% 9.5% 9% ± 4% GPO 3.7% 4.0% 3.9% 5% ± 3% NBPO 0.0% 0.0% 1.5% 1% ± 1% ONP 0.0% 0.0% 1.2% 1% ± 1%