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Ontario

Markham—Stouffville


MPP : Paul Calandra (PCPO)
Latest projection: June 27, 2025
Likely PCPO

Recent electoral history | Markham—Stouffville


2014 2018 2022 Proj. PCPO 34.1% 48.1% 48.4% 51% ± 10% OLP 48.5% 26.0% 35.5% 41% ± 10% NDP 12.1% 20.4% 9.5% 4% ± 3% GPO 3.7% 4.0% 3.9% 2% ± 2% NBPO 0.0% 0.0% 1.5% 1% ± 1%

Markham—Stouffville 51% ± 10% PCPO 41% ± 10% OLP 4% ± 3%▼ NDP PCPO 2022 48.4% 338Canada Popular vote projection | June 27, 2025
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Markham—Stouffville 92% PCPO 8% OLP <1% NDP Odds of winning | June 27, 2025
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.9%), likely (90% to 99.9%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).


Popular vote projection | Markham—Stouffville

OLP 41% ± 10% PCPO 51% ± 10% NDP 4% ± 3% Popular vote projection % | Markham—Stouffville 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2025-02-01 2025-03-01 2025-04-01 2025-05-01 2025-06-01 2025-07-01 2025-08-01 2025-09-01 2025-10-01 2025-11-01 2025-12-01 Election 2025 OLP PCPO NDP June 27, 2025 2025-01-27 PCPO 48% OLP 37% NDP 9% 2025-01-27 2025-01-29 PCPO 48% OLP 37% NDP 9% 2025-01-29 2025-01-31 PCPO 50% OLP 36% NDP 9% 2025-01-31 2025-02-02 PCPO 51% OLP 35% NDP 9% 2025-02-02 2025-02-03 PCPO 50% OLP 36% NDP 9% 2025-02-03 2025-02-04 PCPO 50% OLP 37% NDP 8% 2025-02-04 2025-02-05 PCPO 50% OLP 37% NDP 8% 2025-02-05 2025-02-06 PCPO 51% OLP 36% NDP 8% 2025-02-06 2025-02-07 PCPO 51% OLP 36% NDP 8% 2025-02-07 2025-02-08 PCPO 48% OLP 38% NDP 8% 2025-02-08 2025-02-09 PCPO 49% OLP 37% NDP 8% 2025-02-09 2025-02-10 PCPO 49% OLP 38% NDP 8% 2025-02-10 2025-02-11 PCPO 49% OLP 38% NDP 8% 2025-02-11 2025-02-12 PCPO 48% OLP 39% NDP 7% 2025-02-12 2025-02-13 PCPO 49% OLP 39% NDP 8% 2025-02-13 2025-02-14 PCPO 49% OLP 39% NDP 7% 2025-02-14 2025-02-15 PCPO 49% OLP 39% NDP 7% 2025-02-15 2025-02-16 PCPO 49% OLP 39% NDP 7% 2025-02-16 2025-02-17 PCPO 48% OLP 40% NDP 7% 2025-02-17 2025-02-18 PCPO 48% OLP 40% NDP 7% 2025-02-18 2025-02-19 PCPO 49% OLP 39% NDP 7% 2025-02-19 2025-02-20 PCPO 49% OLP 39% NDP 7% 2025-02-20 2025-02-21 PCPO 49% OLP 39% NDP 7% 2025-02-21 2025-02-22 PCPO 49% OLP 39% NDP 7% 2025-02-22 2025-02-23 PCPO 49% OLP 39% NDP 7% 2025-02-23 2025-02-24 PCPO 49% OLP 39% NDP 7% 2025-02-24 2025-02-25 PCPO 49% OLP 39% NDP 7% 2025-02-25 2025-02-26 PCPO 49% OLP 39% NDP 7% 2025-02-26 2025-02-27 PCPO 49% OLP 39% NDP 7% 2025-02-27 2025-02-28 PCPO 51% OLP 41% NDP 5% 2025-02-28 2025-06-07 PCPO 51% OLP 41% NDP 5% 2025-06-07 2025-06-27 PCPO 51% OLP 41% NDP 4% 2025-06-27

Odds of winning | Markham—Stouffville

OLP 8% PCPO 92% NDP <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2025-02-01 2025-03-01 2025-04-01 2025-05-01 2025-06-01 2025-07-01 2025-08-01 2025-09-01 2025-10-01 2025-11-01 2025-12-01 Election 2025 OLP PCPO NDP June 27, 2025 2025-01-27 PCPO 96% OLP 4% NDP <1% 2025-01-27 2025-01-29 PCPO 97% OLP 3% NDP <1% 2025-01-29 2025-01-31 PCPO 99% OLP 1% NDP <1% 2025-01-31 2025-02-02 PCPO 99% OLP 1% NDP <1% 2025-02-02 2025-02-03 PCPO 99% OLP 1% NDP <1% 2025-02-03 2025-02-04 PCPO 98% OLP 2% NDP <1% 2025-02-04 2025-02-05 PCPO 98% OLP 2% NDP <1% 2025-02-05 2025-02-06 PCPO 99% OLP 1% NDP <1% 2025-02-06 2025-02-07 PCPO 99% OLP 1% NDP <1% 2025-02-07 2025-02-08 PCPO 94% OLP 6% NDP <1% 2025-02-08 2025-02-09 PCPO 97% OLP 3% NDP <1% 2025-02-09 2025-02-10 PCPO 96% OLP 4% NDP <1% 2025-02-10 2025-02-11 PCPO 95% OLP 5% NDP <1% 2025-02-11 2025-02-12 PCPO 94% OLP 6% NDP <1% 2025-02-12 2025-02-13 PCPO 94% OLP 6% NDP <1% 2025-02-13 2025-02-14 PCPO 93% OLP 7% NDP <1% 2025-02-14 2025-02-15 PCPO 95% OLP 5% NDP <1% 2025-02-15 2025-02-16 PCPO 96% OLP 4% NDP <1% 2025-02-16 2025-02-17 PCPO 90% OLP 10% NDP <1% 2025-02-17 2025-02-18 PCPO 89% OLP 11% NDP <1% 2025-02-18 2025-02-19 PCPO 93% OLP 7% NDP <1% 2025-02-19 2025-02-20 PCPO 94% OLP 6% NDP <1% 2025-02-20 2025-02-21 PCPO 93% OLP 7% NDP <1% 2025-02-21 2025-02-22 PCPO 95% OLP 5% NDP <1% 2025-02-22 2025-02-23 PCPO 94% OLP 6% NDP <1% 2025-02-23 2025-02-24 PCPO 95% OLP 5% NDP <1% 2025-02-24 2025-02-25 PCPO 95% OLP 5% NDP <1% 2025-02-25 2025-02-26 PCPO 96% OLP 4% NDP <1% 2025-02-26 2025-02-27 PCPO 95% OLP 5% NDP <1% 2025-02-27 2025-02-28 PCPO 99% OLP 1% NDP <1% 2025-02-28 2025-06-07 PCPO 92% OLP 8% NDP <1% 2025-06-07 2025-06-27 PCPO 92% OLP 8% NDP <1% 2025-06-27