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Central Ontario

8 provincial districts
Latest update: February 18, 2026

Central Ontario 45% 60% 52% ± 7% PC 22% 36% 29% ± 7% OLP 7% 13% 10% ± 3% NDP 3% 8% 5% ± 2% GPO 338Canada Popular vote projection | February 18, 2026
Methodology note. This projection is calculated using a weighted average of polls by the 338Canada model to estimate current party support. It is not a poll. It reflects an aggregation of polling and modelling of various data. Details on 338Canada’s methodology are available here.
Central Ontario, 8 federal districts 8 [8-8] PC 0  [0-0] OLP 338Canada seat projection | February 18, 2026
Methodology note. The seat projections are a forecast of the most likely results if a general election were held today. The brackets indicate the current range from worst- to best-case outcomes. Values near the centre of the distribution are more likely than the extremes, as the results follow Gaussian-like (bell-curve) distributions. Does it work? See 338Canada’s full record here.

Popular vote projection | Central Ontario

OLP 29% ± 7% PC 52% ± 7% NDP 10% ± 3% GPO 5% ± 2% Popular vote projection % | Central Ontario 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 2026► 2026-01-01 2026-03-01 2026-05-01 2026-07-01 Election 2025 OLP PC NDP GPO February 18, 2026 2025-01-27 PC 48% OLP 25% NDP 14% GPO 9% 2025-01-27 2025-01-29 PC 49% OLP 25% NDP 13% GPO 9% 2025-01-29 2025-01-31 PC 51% OLP 24% NDP 13% GPO 9% 2025-01-31 2025-02-02 PC 52% OLP 24% NDP 13% GPO 8% 2025-02-02 2025-02-03 PC 51% OLP 25% NDP 13% GPO 8% 2025-02-03 2025-02-04 PC 51% OLP 25% NDP 12% GPO 8% 2025-02-04 2025-02-05 PC 52% OLP 25% NDP 12% GPO 8% 2025-02-05 2025-02-06 PC 52% OLP 24% NDP 12% GPO 8% 2025-02-06 2025-02-07 PC 52% OLP 25% NDP 12% GPO 8% 2025-02-07 2025-02-08 PC 52% OLP 25% NDP 12% GPO 8% 2025-02-08 2025-02-09 PC 52% OLP 24% NDP 12% GPO 8% 2025-02-09 2025-02-10 PC 52% OLP 24% NDP 12% GPO 8% 2025-02-10 2025-02-11 PC 52% OLP 25% NDP 12% GPO 8% 2025-02-11 2025-02-12 PC 52% OLP 25% NDP 11% GPO 8% 2025-02-12 2025-02-13 PC 52% OLP 25% NDP 11% GPO 9% 2025-02-13 2025-02-14 PC 53% OLP 26% NDP 11% GPO 9% 2025-02-14 2025-02-15 PC 53% OLP 25% NDP 11% GPO 8% 2025-02-15 2025-02-16 PC 53% OLP 25% NDP 11% GPO 8% 2025-02-16 2025-02-17 PC 52% OLP 26% NDP 11% GPO 9% 2025-02-17 2025-02-18 PC 52% OLP 26% NDP 11% GPO 9% 2025-02-18 2025-02-19 PC 53% OLP 25% NDP 11% GPO 8% 2025-02-19 2025-02-20 PC 53% OLP 25% NDP 11% GPO 8% 2025-02-20 2025-02-21 PC 53% OLP 25% NDP 11% GPO 8% 2025-02-21 2025-02-22 PC 53% OLP 25% NDP 11% GPO 8% 2025-02-22 2025-02-23 PC 53% OLP 25% NDP 11% GPO 8% 2025-02-23 2025-02-24 PC 53% OLP 25% NDP 11% GPO 8% 2025-02-24 2025-02-25 PC 53% OLP 25% NDP 11% GPO 8% 2025-02-25 2025-02-26 PC 54% OLP 25% NDP 11% GPO 8% 2025-02-26 2025-02-27 PC 54% OLP 25% NDP 11% GPO 8% 2025-02-27 2025-02-28 PC 51% OLP 30% NDP 10% GPO 6% 2025-02-28 2025-06-07 PC 51% OLP 30% NDP 10% GPO 6% 2025-06-07 2025-06-27 PC 51% OLP 30% NDP 10% GPO 6% 2025-06-27 2025-07-27 PC 52% OLP 29% NDP 10% GPO 5% 2025-07-27 2025-08-31 PC 55% OLP 28% NDP 8% GPO 5% 2025-08-31 2025-10-21 PC 55% OLP 28% NDP 8% GPO 5% 2025-10-21 2025-11-23 PC 54% OLP 28% NDP 9% GPO 5% 2025-11-23 2025-12-20 PC 53% OLP 28% NDP 10% GPO 5% 2025-12-20 2026-01-25 PC 53% OLP 29% NDP 10% GPO 5% 2026-01-25 2026-02-18 PC 52% OLP 29% NDP 10% GPO 5% 2026-02-18

Seat projection | Central Ontario

OLP 0 [0-0] PC 8 [8-8] Seat projection | Central Ontario 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 2026► 2026-01-01 2026-03-01 2026-05-01 2026-07-01 Election 2025 OLP PC February 18, 2026 2025-01-27 PC 8 OLP 0 2025-01-27 2025-01-29 PC 8 OLP 0 2025-01-29 2025-01-31 PC 8 OLP 0 2025-01-31 2025-02-02 PC 8 OLP 0 2025-02-02 2025-02-03 PC 8 OLP 0 2025-02-03 2025-02-04 PC 8 OLP 0 2025-02-04 2025-02-05 PC 8 OLP 0 2025-02-05 2025-02-06 PC 8 OLP 0 2025-02-06 2025-02-07 PC 8 OLP 0 2025-02-07 2025-02-08 PC 8 OLP 0 2025-02-08 2025-02-09 PC 8 OLP 0 2025-02-09 2025-02-10 PC 8 OLP 0 2025-02-10 2025-02-11 PC 8 OLP 0 2025-02-11 2025-02-12 PC 8 OLP 0 2025-02-12 2025-02-13 PC 8 OLP 0 2025-02-13 2025-02-14 PC 8 OLP 0 2025-02-14 2025-02-15 PC 8 OLP 0 2025-02-15 2025-02-16 PC 8 OLP 0 2025-02-16 2025-02-17 PC 8 OLP 0 2025-02-17 2025-02-18 PC 8 OLP 0 2025-02-18 2025-02-19 PC 8 OLP 0 2025-02-19 2025-02-20 PC 8 OLP 0 2025-02-20 2025-02-21 PC 8 OLP 0 2025-02-21 2025-02-22 PC 8 OLP 0 2025-02-22 2025-02-23 PC 8 OLP 0 2025-02-23 2025-02-24 PC 8 OLP 0 2025-02-24 2025-02-25 PC 8 OLP 0 2025-02-25 2025-02-26 PC 8 OLP 0 2025-02-26 2025-02-27 PC 8 OLP 0 2025-02-27 2025-02-28 PC 8 OLP 0 2025-02-28 2025-06-07 PC 8 OLP 0 2025-06-07 2025-06-27 PC 8 OLP 0 2025-06-27 2025-07-27 PC 8 OLP 0 2025-07-27 2025-08-31 PC 8 OLP 0 2025-08-31 2025-10-21 PC 8 OLP 0 2025-10-21 2025-11-23 PC 8 OLP 0 2025-11-23 2025-12-20 PC 8 OLP 0 2025-12-20 2026-01-25 PC 8 OLP 0 2026-01-25 2026-02-18 PC 8 OLP 0 2026-02-18

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List of districts | Central Ontario
Latest update: February 18, 2026

Electoral districts
Current party
Projection
Andrea Khanjin
PC Safe PCPO
PC Likely PCPO
Sylvia Jones
PC Safe PCPO
PC Safe PCPO
PC Safe PCPO
PC Leaning PCPO
Jill Dunlop
PC Safe PCPO
Brian Saunderson
PC Safe PCPO