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Ontario

Kingston and the Islands


MPP: Hsu, Ted (OLP)
Latest projection: February 20, 2025
Likely OLP

Candidates | Kingston and the Islands


PC Party of Ontario Ian Chapelle
Liberal Party Ted Hsu
Ontario NDP Elliot Goodell Ugalde
Green Party Zachary Typhair
Ontario Party Allan Wilson
None of the Above Party James Mcnair

Candidates listed here are on the Elections Ontario website.

Kingston and the Islands 41% ± 8%▲ OLP 30% ± 7% PCPO 24% ± 7% NDP 4% ± 2% GPO OLP 2022 37.7% 338Canada Popular vote projection | February 20, 2025
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Kingston and the Islands 98% OLP 2% PCPO <1% NDP Odds of winning | February 20, 2025
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).


Popular vote projection | Kingston and the Islands

OLP 41% ± 8% PCPO 30% ± 7% NDP 24% ± 7% GPO 4% ± 2% Popular vote projection % | Kingston and the Islands 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2025-02-01 2025-02-15 2025-03-01 Election 2025 Campaign begins OLP PCPO NDP GPO February 20, 2025 2025-01-27 OLP 38% NDP 29% PCPO 26% GPO 4% 2025-01-27 2025-01-29 OLP 38% NDP 29% PCPO 27% GPO 4% 2025-01-29 2025-01-31 OLP 37% PCPO 29% NDP 28% GPO 4% 2025-01-31 2025-02-02 OLP 37% PCPO 29% NDP 28% GPO 4% 2025-02-02 2025-02-03 OLP 37% PCPO 29% NDP 28% GPO 4% 2025-02-03 2025-02-04 OLP 39% PCPO 29% NDP 27% GPO 4% 2025-02-04 2025-02-05 OLP 39% PCPO 29% NDP 26% GPO 4% 2025-02-05 2025-02-06 OLP 38% PCPO 30% NDP 26% GPO 4% 2025-02-06 2025-02-07 OLP 38% PCPO 30% NDP 26% GPO 4% 2025-02-07 2025-02-08 OLP 38% PCPO 30% NDP 27% GPO 4% 2025-02-08 2025-02-09 OLP 37% PCPO 30% NDP 27% GPO 4% 2025-02-09 2025-02-10 OLP 38% PCPO 30% NDP 27% GPO 4% 2025-02-10 2025-02-11 OLP 39% PCPO 30% NDP 25% GPO 4% 2025-02-11 2025-02-12 OLP 39% PCPO 30% NDP 25% GPO 4% 2025-02-12 2025-02-13 OLP 40% PCPO 30% NDP 25% GPO 4% 2025-02-13 2025-02-14 OLP 40% PCPO 30% NDP 24% GPO 4% 2025-02-14 2025-02-15 OLP 40% PCPO 31% NDP 24% GPO 4% 2025-02-15 2025-02-16 OLP 40% PCPO 31% NDP 24% GPO 4% 2025-02-16 2025-02-17 OLP 41% PCPO 29% NDP 24% GPO 4% 2025-02-17 2025-02-18 OLP 41% PCPO 30% NDP 24% GPO 4% 2025-02-18 2025-02-19 OLP 40% PCPO 30% NDP 24% GPO 4% 2025-02-19 2025-02-20 OLP 41% PCPO 30% NDP 24% GPO 4% 2025-02-20

Odds of winning | Kingston and the Islands

OLP 98% PCPO 2% NDP <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2025-02-01 2025-02-15 2025-03-01 Election 2025 Campaign begins OLP PCPO NDP February 20, 2025 2025-01-27 OLP 95% NDP 4% PCPO 1% 2025-01-27 2025-01-29 OLP 97% NDP 3% PCPO 1% 2025-01-29 2025-01-31 OLP 92% PCPO 5% NDP 3% 2025-01-31 2025-02-02 OLP 92% PCPO 5% NDP 3% 2025-02-02 2025-02-03 OLP 94% PCPO 3% NDP 3% 2025-02-03 2025-02-04 OLP 97% PCPO 3% NDP <1% 2025-02-04 2025-02-05 OLP 97% PCPO 3% NDP <1% 2025-02-05 2025-02-06 OLP 94% PCPO 6% NDP <1% 2025-02-06 2025-02-07 OLP 95% PCPO 5% NDP <1% 2025-02-07 2025-02-08 OLP 96% PCPO 4% NDP <1% 2025-02-08 2025-02-09 OLP 93% PCPO 6% NDP 1% 2025-02-09 2025-02-10 OLP 95% PCPO 5% NDP 1% 2025-02-10 2025-02-11 OLP 96% PCPO 4% NDP <1% 2025-02-11 2025-02-12 OLP 97% PCPO 3% NDP <1% 2025-02-12 2025-02-13 OLP 97% PCPO 3% NDP <1% 2025-02-13 2025-02-14 OLP 98% PCPO 2% NDP <1% 2025-02-14 2025-02-15 OLP 98% PCPO 2% NDP <1% 2025-02-15 2025-02-16 OLP 98% PCPO 2% NDP <1% 2025-02-16 2025-02-17 OLP 99% PCPO 1% NDP <1% 2025-02-17 2025-02-18 OLP 99% PCPO 1% NDP <1% 2025-02-18 2025-02-19 OLP 98% PCPO 2% NDP <1% 2025-02-19 2025-02-20 OLP 98% PCPO 2% NDP <1% 2025-02-20

Recent electoral history | Kingston and the Islands



2014 2018 2022 Proj. OLP 42.1% 27.5% 37.7% 41% ± 8% NDP 29.4% 39.3% 31.2% 24% ± 7% PCPO 20.8% 26.0% 24.6% 30% ± 7% GPO 7.2% 6.5% 3.3% 4% ± 2% ONP 0.0% 0.0% 1.7% 1% ± 1%