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Ontario

Kingston and the Islands


MPP : Ted Hsu (OLP)
Latest projection: June 27, 2025
Safe OLP

Recent electoral history | Kingston and the Islands


2014 2018 2022 Proj. OLP 42.1% 27.5% 37.7% 62% ± 8% NDP 29.4% 39.3% 31.2% 12% ± 5% PCPO 20.8% 26.0% 24.6% 22% ± 7% GPO 7.2% 6.5% 3.3% 2% ± 2% ONP 0.0% 0.0% 1.7% 1% ± 1%

Kingston and the Islands 62% ± 8%▲ OLP 22% ± 7% PCPO 12% ± 5% NDP OLP 2022 37.7% 338Canada Popular vote projection | June 27, 2025
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Kingston and the Islands >99% OLP <1% PCPO <1% NDP Odds of winning | June 27, 2025
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.9%), likely (90% to 99.9%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).


Popular vote projection | Kingston and the Islands

OLP 62% ± 8% PCPO 22% ± 7% NDP 12% ± 5% Popular vote projection % | Kingston and the Islands 70 65 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2025-02-01 2025-03-01 2025-04-01 2025-05-01 2025-06-01 2025-07-01 2025-08-01 2025-09-01 2025-10-01 2025-11-01 2025-12-01 Election 2025 OLP PCPO NDP June 27, 2025 2025-01-27 OLP 38% NDP 29% PCPO 26% 2025-01-27 2025-01-29 OLP 38% NDP 29% PCPO 27% 2025-01-29 2025-01-31 OLP 37% PCPO 29% NDP 28% 2025-01-31 2025-02-02 OLP 37% PCPO 29% NDP 28% 2025-02-02 2025-02-03 OLP 37% PCPO 29% NDP 28% 2025-02-03 2025-02-04 OLP 39% PCPO 29% NDP 27% 2025-02-04 2025-02-05 OLP 39% PCPO 29% NDP 26% 2025-02-05 2025-02-06 OLP 38% PCPO 30% NDP 26% 2025-02-06 2025-02-07 OLP 38% PCPO 30% NDP 26% 2025-02-07 2025-02-08 OLP 38% PCPO 30% NDP 27% 2025-02-08 2025-02-09 OLP 37% PCPO 30% NDP 27% 2025-02-09 2025-02-10 OLP 38% PCPO 30% NDP 27% 2025-02-10 2025-02-11 OLP 39% PCPO 30% NDP 25% 2025-02-11 2025-02-12 OLP 39% PCPO 30% NDP 25% 2025-02-12 2025-02-13 OLP 40% PCPO 30% NDP 25% 2025-02-13 2025-02-14 OLP 40% PCPO 30% NDP 24% 2025-02-14 2025-02-15 OLP 40% PCPO 31% NDP 24% 2025-02-15 2025-02-16 OLP 40% PCPO 31% NDP 24% 2025-02-16 2025-02-17 OLP 41% PCPO 29% NDP 24% 2025-02-17 2025-02-18 OLP 41% PCPO 30% NDP 24% 2025-02-18 2025-02-19 OLP 40% PCPO 30% NDP 24% 2025-02-19 2025-02-20 OLP 41% PCPO 30% NDP 24% 2025-02-20 2025-02-21 OLP 41% PCPO 30% NDP 24% 2025-02-21 2025-02-22 OLP 40% PCPO 30% NDP 24% 2025-02-22 2025-02-23 OLP 40% PCPO 31% NDP 25% 2025-02-23 2025-02-24 OLP 40% PCPO 31% NDP 25% 2025-02-24 2025-02-25 OLP 40% PCPO 31% NDP 25% 2025-02-25 2025-02-26 OLP 39% PCPO 31% NDP 24% 2025-02-26 2025-02-27 OLP 40% PCPO 31% NDP 24% 2025-02-27 2025-02-28 OLP 62% PCPO 22% NDP 12% 2025-02-28 2025-06-07 OLP 61% PCPO 22% NDP 12% 2025-06-07 2025-06-27 OLP 62% PCPO 22% NDP 12% 2025-06-27

Odds of winning | Kingston and the Islands

OLP >99% NDP <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2025-02-01 2025-03-01 2025-04-01 2025-05-01 2025-06-01 2025-07-01 2025-08-01 2025-09-01 2025-10-01 2025-11-01 2025-12-01 Election 2025 OLP NDP June 27, 2025 2025-01-27 OLP 95% NDP 4% 2025-01-27 2025-01-29 OLP 97% NDP 3% 2025-01-29 2025-01-31 OLP 92% NDP 3% 2025-01-31 2025-02-02 OLP 92% NDP 3% 2025-02-02 2025-02-03 OLP 94% NDP 3% 2025-02-03 2025-02-04 OLP 97% NDP <1% 2025-02-04 2025-02-05 OLP 97% NDP <1% 2025-02-05 2025-02-06 OLP 94% NDP <1% 2025-02-06 2025-02-07 OLP 95% NDP <1% 2025-02-07 2025-02-08 OLP 96% NDP <1% 2025-02-08 2025-02-09 OLP 93% NDP 1% 2025-02-09 2025-02-10 OLP 95% NDP 1% 2025-02-10 2025-02-11 OLP 96% NDP <1% 2025-02-11 2025-02-12 OLP 97% NDP <1% 2025-02-12 2025-02-13 OLP 97% NDP <1% 2025-02-13 2025-02-14 OLP 98% NDP <1% 2025-02-14 2025-02-15 OLP 98% NDP <1% 2025-02-15 2025-02-16 OLP 98% NDP <1% 2025-02-16 2025-02-17 OLP 99% NDP <1% 2025-02-17 2025-02-18 OLP 99% NDP <1% 2025-02-18 2025-02-19 OLP 98% NDP <1% 2025-02-19 2025-02-20 OLP 98% NDP <1% 2025-02-20 2025-02-21 OLP 98% NDP <1% 2025-02-21 2025-02-22 OLP 99% NDP <1% 2025-02-22 2025-02-23 OLP 97% NDP <1% 2025-02-23 2025-02-24 OLP 97% NDP <1% 2025-02-24 2025-02-25 OLP 97% NDP <1% 2025-02-25 2025-02-26 OLP 96% NDP <1% 2025-02-26 2025-02-27 OLP 95% NDP <1% 2025-02-27 2025-02-28 OLP >99% NDP <1% 2025-02-28 2025-06-07 OLP >99% NDP <1% 2025-06-07 2025-06-27 OLP >99% NDP <1% 2025-06-27