New Democratic Party

Note: The seats-per-vote function, or vote efficiency, is not a linear function, but can be approximated as one over narrow vote intervals.

Ranked list of favourable electoral districts | New Democratic Party

Rank	Electoral districts	Last projection	Odds of winning
1.	Toronto—Danforth	Safe NDP	>99%
2.	Davenport	Safe NDP	>99%
3.	Ottawa Centre	Safe NDP	>99%
4.	Waterloo	Safe NDP	>99%
5.	Ottawa West—Nepean	Safe NDP	>99%
6.	Hamilton Centre	Safe NDP	>99%
7.	Niagara Falls	Safe NDP	>99%
8.	University—Rosedale	Likely NDP	>99%
9.	Kiiwetinoong	Likely NDP	>99%
10.	Parkdale—High Park	Likely NDP	99%
11.	London North Centre	Likely NDP	99%
12.	London West	Likely NDP	99%
13.	Spadina—Fort York	Likely NDP	98%
14.	London—Fanshawe	Likely NDP	98%
15.	Scarborough Southwest	Likely NDP	97%
16.	Nickel Belt	Likely NDP	96%
17.	Windsor West	Likely NDP	95%
18.	Toronto Centre	Leaning NDP	90%
19.	St. Catharines	Leaning NDP	85%
20.	Sudbury	Leaning NDP	85%
21.	Thunder Bay—Superior North	Leaning NDP	84%
22.	Timiskaming—Cochrane	Leaning NDP	78%
23.	Hamilton West—Ancaster—Dundas	Leaning NDP	78%
24.	Niagara Centre	Leaning NDP	76%
25.	Oshawa	Toss up PCPO/NDP	70%
26.	Humber River—Black Creek	Toss up PCPO/NDP	48%
27.	Mushkegowuk—James Bay	Toss up PCPO/NDP	47%
28.	Sault Ste. Marie	Toss up PCPO/NDP	43%
29.	Toronto—St. Paul’s	Likely OLP	5%