338Canada.com - Ontario - New Democratic Party





Last update: May 19, 2021

LeaderAndrea Horwath
Popular vote in 201833.6%
Current vote projection27.3% ± 4.4%
Current number of MP's40
Current seat projection36 ± 14



Ranked list of electoral districts favourable to the New Democratic Party



Rank Electoral districts Current party Last projection Odds of winning
1. Hamilton Centre NDP safe >99%
2. Toronto—Danforth NDP safe >99%
3. Nickel Belt NDP safe >99%
4. Timiskaming—Cochrane NDP safe >99%
5. Windsor—Tecumseh NDP safe >99%
6. Algoma—Manitoulin NDP safe >99%
7. Parkdale—High Park NDP safe >99%
8. London—Fanshawe NDP safe >99%
9. Hamilton Mountain NDP safe >99%
10. London West NDP safe >99%
11. Davenport NDP safe >99%
12. Hamilton East—Stoney Creek NDP safe >99%
13. Windsor West NDP safe >99%
14. Brampton East NDP likely >99%
15. Timmins NDP likely >99%
16. Waterloo NDP likely >99%
17. London North Centre NDP likely >99%
18. Niagara Falls NDP likely 99%
19. Scarborough Southwest NDP likely 97%
20. Mushkegowuk—James Bay NDP likely 97%
21. Kiiwetinoong NDP likely 96%
22. Oshawa NDP likely 94%
23. Niagara Centre NDP leaning 89%
24. University—Rosedale NDP leaning 88%
25. Essex NDP leaning 83%
26. Kitchener Centre NDP leaning 82%
27. Brampton North NDP leaning 81%
28. St. Catharines NDP leaning 81%
29. Hamilton West—Ancaster—Dundas NDP leaning 79%
30. Sudbury NDP leaning 76%
31. Spadina—Fort York NDP leaning 74%
32. Beaches—East York Toss up 68%
33. Brampton Centre Toss up 68%
34. Toronto Centre Toss up 58%
35. Brantford—Brant Toss up 57%
36. Humber River—Black Creek Toss up 46%
37. York South—Weston Toss up 43%
38. Brampton West Toss up 43%
39. Kingston and the Islands Toss up 34%
40. Kitchener South—Hespeler Toss up 34%
41. Toronto—St. Paul`s OLP leaning 24%
42. Kitchener—Conestoga PCO leaning 20%
43. Whitby PCO leaning 15%
44. Sarnia—Lambton PCO leaning 13%
45. Flamborough—Glanbrook PCO leaning 12%
46. Scarborough—Rouge Park Toss up 11%
47. Chatham-Kent—Leamington PCO likely 10%
48. Sault Ste. Marie PCO likely 10%
49. Ottawa Centre OLP likely 10%
50. Brampton South PCO leaning 10%
51. Thunder Bay—Atikokan OLP likely 9%
52. Ajax Toss up 8%
53. Scarborough Centre Toss up 7%
54. Etobicoke—Lakeshore Toss up 6%
55. Peterborough—Kawartha Toss up 6%
56. Mississauga—Malton Toss up 5%
57. Cambridge Toss up 4%
58. Kenora—Rainy River PCO likely 3%
59. Lambton—Kent—Middlesex PCO likely 3%
60. Mississauga Centre PCO leaning 3%
61. Burlington Toss up 2%
62. Pickering—Uxbridge Toss up 2%
63. Perth—Wellington PCO likely <1%
64. Oxford PCO likely <1%
Rank Electoral districts Projection
1. Hamilton Centre NDP safe
2. Toronto—Danforth NDP safe
3. Nickel Belt NDP safe
4. Timiskaming—Cochrane NDP safe
5. Windsor—Tecumseh NDP safe
6. Algoma—Manitoulin NDP safe
7. Parkdale—High Park NDP safe
8. London—Fanshawe NDP safe
9. Hamilton Mountain NDP safe
10. London West NDP safe
11. Davenport NDP safe
12. Hamilton East—Stoney Creek NDP safe
13. Windsor West NDP safe
14. Brampton East NDP likely
15. Timmins NDP likely
16. Waterloo NDP likely
17. London North Centre NDP likely
18. Niagara Falls NDP likely
19. Scarborough Southwest NDP likely
20. Mushkegowuk—James Bay NDP likely
21. Kiiwetinoong NDP likely
22. Oshawa NDP likely
23. Niagara Centre NDP leaning
24. University—Rosedale NDP leaning
25. Essex NDP leaning
26. Kitchener Centre NDP leaning
27. Brampton North NDP leaning
28. St. Catharines NDP leaning
29. Hamilton West—Ancaster—Dundas NDP leaning
30. Sudbury NDP leaning
31. Spadina—Fort York NDP leaning
32. Beaches—East York Toss up
33. Brampton Centre Toss up
34. Toronto Centre Toss up
35. Brantford—Brant Toss up
36. Humber River—Black Creek Toss up
37. York South—Weston Toss up
38. Brampton West Toss up
39. Kingston and the Islands Toss up
40. Kitchener South—Hespeler Toss up
41. Toronto—St. Paul`s OLP leaning
42. Kitchener—Conestoga PCO leaning
43. Whitby PCO leaning
44. Sarnia—Lambton PCO leaning
45. Flamborough—Glanbrook PCO leaning
46. Scarborough—Rouge Park Toss up
47. Chatham-Kent—Leamington PCO likely
48. Sault Ste. Marie PCO likely
49. Ottawa Centre OLP likely
50. Brampton South PCO leaning
51. Thunder Bay—Atikokan OLP likely
52. Ajax Toss up
53. Scarborough Centre Toss up
54. Etobicoke—Lakeshore Toss up
55. Peterborough—Kawartha Toss up
56. Mississauga—Malton Toss up
57. Cambridge Toss up
58. Kenora—Rainy River PCO likely
59. Lambton—Kent—Middlesex PCO likely
60. Mississauga Centre PCO leaning
61. Burlington Toss up
62. Pickering—Uxbridge Toss up
63. Perth—Wellington PCO likely
64. Oxford PCO likely



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