New Democratic Party

Note: The seats-per-vote function, or vote efficiency, is not a linear function, but can be approximated as one over narrow vote intervals.

Ranked list of favourable electoral districts | New Democratic Party

Rank	Electoral districts	Last projection	Odds of winning
1.	Davenport	Safe NDP	>99%
2.	Ottawa Centre	Safe NDP	>99%
3.	Toronto—Danforth	Safe NDP	>99%
4.	Parkdale—High Park	Safe NDP	>99%
5.	Hamilton Centre	Safe NDP	>99%
6.	Scarborough Southwest	Safe NDP	>99%
7.	Waterloo	Likely NDP	99%
8.	Nickel Belt	Likely NDP	98%
9.	Hamilton Mountain	Likely NDP	97%
10.	Kiiwetinoong	Likely NDP	97%
11.	Spadina—Fort York	Likely NDP	96%
12.	London—Fanshawe	Likely NDP	96%
13.	London West	Leaning NDP	89%
14.	Niagara Falls	Leaning NDP	88%
15.	London North Centre	Leaning NDP	85%
16.	Hamilton West—Ancaster—Dundas	Leaning NDP	77%
17.	University—Rosedale	Leaning NDP	75%
18.	Algoma—Manitoulin	Leaning NDP	71%
19.	Windsor West	Toss up PCPO/NDP	69%
20.	Mushkegowuk—James Bay	Toss up PCPO/NDP	66%
21.	Ottawa West—Nepean	Toss up PCPO/NDP	64%
22.	St. Catharines	Toss up PCPO/NDP	61%
23.	Oshawa	Toss up PCPO/NDP	59%
24.	Sudbury	Toss up OLP/PCPO/NDP	54%
25.	Timiskaming—Cochrane	Toss up PCPO/NDP	54%
26.	Toronto Centre	Toss up OLP/NDP	41%
27.	Niagara Centre	Toss up PCPO/NDP	39%
28.	York South—Weston	Toss up PCPO/NDP	26%
29.	Toronto—St. Paul’s	Leaning OLP	19%
30.	Humber River—Black Creek	Leaning OLP	15%
31.	Beaches—East York	Likely OLP	4%
32.	Kingston and the Islands	Likely OLP	3%
33.	Hamilton East—Stoney Creek	Likely PCPO	2%
34.	Thunder Bay—Superior North	Likely OLP	1%
35.	Brampton East	Likely PCPO	1%
36.	Sault Ste. Marie	Likely PCPO	1%