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New Democratic Party

Latest update: February 18, 2026
LeaderMarit Stiles
Popular vote in 202518.6%
Current vote projection18.7% ± 2.6%
Current number of MPP27
Current seat projection27 [23-29]

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Seat projection Popular vote projection | February 18, 2026 35 30 25 20 13% 14% 15% 16% 17% 18% 19% 20% 21% 22% 23% 24% Vote efficiency | NDP 338Canada Ontario 1.3 seat/% [23-29] 19% ± 3% 2018 2025
Note: The seats-per-vote function, or vote efficiency, is not a linear function, but can be approximated as one over narrow vote intervals.

Vote projection | February 18, 2026

13% 14% 15% 16% 17% 18% 19% 20% 21% 22% 23% 24% 14% 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% Min. 16.2% 2025 18.6% 18.7% ± 2.6% Max. 21.3% Probabilities % NDP

Seat projection | February 18, 2026

19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% Min. 23 2025 27 seats 27 Max. 29 Probabilities % NDP

List of favourable electoral districts | New Democratic Party



Electoral districts Current party Projection
1.
Peter Tabuns
N Safe NDP
2.
Marit Stiles
N Safe NDP
3.
Catherine Mckenney
N Safe NDP
4.
Catherine Fife
N Safe NDP
5.
Robin Lennox
N Safe NDP
6.
Wayne J. Gates
N Safe NDP
7.
Chandra Pasma
N Safe NDP
8.
Jessica Bell
N Safe NDP
9.
Alexa Gilmour
N Safe NDP
10.
Sol Mamakwa
N Likely NDP
11.
Chris Glover
N Likely NDP
12.
Terence Kernaghan
N Likely NDP
13.
Peggy Sattler
N Likely NDP
14.
Teresa Armstrong
N Likely NDP
15. N Likely NDP
16.
France Gélinas
N Likely NDP
17.
Lisa Gretzky
N Likely NDP
18.
Kristyn Wong-Tam
N Likely NDP
19.
Jennie Stevens
N Likely NDP
20.
Jamie West
N Likely NDP
21. N Likely NDP
22. N Leaning NDP
23.
John Vanthof
N Leaning NDP
24.
Jeff Burch
N Leaning NDP
25.
Jennifer French
N Leaning NDP
26. N Toss up PC/NDP
27.
Guy Bourgouin
N Toss up PC/NDP
28.
Chris Scott [Elected as PC]
I Toss up PC/NDP
29.
Stephanie Smyth
L Likely OLP
30.
Monica Ciriello
PC Likely PCPO
31.
Mohamed Firin
PC Toss up OLP/PC
32.
Bill Rosenberg
PC Likely PCPO
33.
Andrew Dowie
PC Safe PCPO
34.
Kevin Holland
PC Safe PCPO