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Ontario

New Democratic Party





Last update: May 3, 2024

LeaderMarit Stiles
Popular vote in 202223.7%
Current vote projection21.3% ± 2.9%
Current number of MPP28
Current seat projection24 [12-31]

Seat projection Popular vote projection | May 3, 2024 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 16% 17% 18% 19% 20% 21% 22% 23% 24% 25% 26% 27% Vote efficiency | NDP 338Canada ©2023 2.9 seat/% 24 [12-31] 21% ± 3% 2018 2022
Note: The seats-per-vote function, or vote efficiency, is not a linear function, but can be approximated as one over narrow vote intervals.


Vote projection | May 3, 2024

15% 16% 17% 18% 19% 20% 21% 22% 23% 24% 25% 26% 27% 13% 12% 11% 10% 9% 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% Min. 18.4% 21.3% ± 2.9% Max. 24.2% Probabilities % NDP

Seat projection | May 3, 2024

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% Min. 12 24 Max. 31 2022 31 seats Probabilities % NDP

Ranked list of favourable electoral districts | New Democratic Party



Rank Electoral districts Current party Last projection Odds of winning
1. Davenport Safe NDP >99%
2. Ottawa Centre Safe NDP >99%
3. Hamilton Centre Safe NDP >99%
4. Parkdale—High Park Safe NDP >99%
5. Toronto—Danforth Safe NDP >99%
6. Scarborough Southwest Likely NDP >99%
7. Waterloo Likely NDP 98%
8. Nickel Belt Likely NDP 98%
9. Kiiwetinoong Likely NDP 96%
10. Spadina—Fort York Likely NDP 96%
11. Hamilton Mountain Likely NDP 96%
12. London—Fanshawe Likely NDP 93%
13. London West Leaning NDP 84%
14. Niagara Falls Leaning NDP 83%
15. London North Centre Leaning NDP 80%
16. University—Rosedale Leaning NDP 74%
17. Hamilton West—Ancaster—Dundas Leaning NDP 71%
18. Algoma—Manitoulin Toss up PCPO/NDP 65%
19. Mushkegowuk—James Bay Toss up PCPO/NDP 62%
20. Windsor West Toss up PCPO/NDP 61%
21. Ottawa West—Nepean Toss up PCPO/NDP 56%
22. St. Catharines Toss up PCPO/NDP 54%
23. Sudbury Toss up OLP/PCPO/NDP 52%
24. Oshawa Toss up PCPO/NDP 51%
25. Timiskaming—Cochrane Toss up PCPO/NDP 45%
26. Toronto Centre Toss up OLP/NDP 41%
27. Niagara Centre Toss up PCPO/NDP 32%
28. York South—Weston Leaning PCPO 20%
29. Toronto—St. Paul’s Leaning OLP 18%
30. Humber River—Black Creek Leaning OLP 14%
31. Beaches—East York Likely OLP 4%
32. Kingston and the Islands Likely OLP 3%
33. Thunder Bay—Superior North Leaning OLP 1%