New Democratic Party

Note: The seats-per-vote function, or vote efficiency, is not a linear function, but can be approximated as one over narrow vote intervals.

Ranked list of favourable electoral districts | New Democratic Party

Rank	Electoral districts	Last projection	Odds of winning
1.	Davenport	Safe NDP	>99%
2.	Toronto—Danforth	Safe NDP	>99%
3.	Ottawa Centre	Safe NDP	>99%
4.	Hamilton Centre	Safe NDP	>99%
5.	Parkdale—High Park	Safe NDP	>99%
6.	Scarborough Southwest	Likely NDP	99%
7.	Spadina—Fort York	Likely NDP	99%
8.	Waterloo	Likely NDP	94%
9.	Nickel Belt	Likely NDP	94%
10.	Kiiwetinoong	Likely NDP	92%
11.	Hamilton Mountain	Likely NDP	90%
12.	University—Rosedale	Leaning NDP	87%
13.	London—Fanshawe	Leaning NDP	84%
14.	London West	Toss up PCPO/NDP	70%
15.	Niagara Falls	Toss up PCPO/NDP	67%
16.	London North Centre	Toss up PCPO/NDP	65%
17.	Toronto Centre	Toss up OLP/NDP	59%
18.	Hamilton West—Ancaster—Dundas	Toss up PCPO/NDP	53%
19.	Algoma—Manitoulin	Toss up PCPO/NDP	50%
20.	Mushkegowuk—James Bay	Toss up PCPO/NDP	49%
21.	Sudbury	Toss up OLP/PCPO/NDP	45%
22.	Windsor West	Toss up PCPO/NDP	42%
23.	Ottawa West—Nepean	Toss up PCPO/NDP	38%
24.	St. Catharines	Toss up PCPO/NDP	35%
25.	Toronto—St. Paul’s	Toss up OLP/NDP	33%
26.	Timiskaming—Cochrane	Leaning PCPO	29%
27.	Oshawa	Leaning PCPO	23%
28.	Niagara Centre	Leaning PCPO	17%
29.	Humber River—Black Creek	Toss up OLP/PCPO/NDP	16%
30.	Beaches—East York	Likely OLP	10%
31.	York South—Weston	Likely PCPO	6%
32.	Kingston and the Islands	Likely OLP	4%
33.	Thunder Bay—Superior North	Leaning OLP	1%