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Last update: March 31, 2021
Leader | Andrea Horwath |
Popular vote in 2018 | 33.6% |
Current vote projection | 26.8% ± 4.7% |
Current number of MP's | 40 |
Current seat projection | 32 ± 12 |
Ranked list of electoral districts favourable to the New Democratic Party
Rank | Electoral districts | Current party | Last projection | Odds of winning |
---|---|---|---|---|
1. | Hamilton Centre | NDP safe | >99% | |
2. | Toronto—Danforth | NDP safe | >99% | |
3. | Nickel Belt | NDP safe | >99% | |
4. | Davenport | NDP safe | >99% | |
5. | Parkdale—High Park | NDP safe | >99% | |
6. | Timiskaming—Cochrane | NDP safe | >99% | |
7. | Windsor—Tecumseh | NDP safe | >99% | |
8. | Algoma—Manitoulin | NDP safe | >99% | |
9. | London—Fanshawe | NDP likely | >99% | |
10. | Hamilton Mountain | NDP likely | 99% | |
11. | London West | NDP likely | 99% | |
12. | Timmins | NDP likely | 98% | |
13. | Hamilton East—Stoney Creek | NDP likely | 98% | |
14. | Windsor West | NDP likely | 98% | |
15. | University—Rosedale | NDP likely | 96% | |
16. | Waterloo | NDP likely | 94% | |
17. | London North Centre | NDP likely | 93% | |
18. | Sudbury | NDP likely | 92% | |
19. | Brampton East | NDP likely | 90% | |
20. | Spadina—Fort York | NDP likely | 90% | |
21. | Niagara Falls | NDP leaning | 87% | |
22. | Beaches—East York | NDP leaning | 87% | |
23. | Mushkegowuk—James Bay | NDP leaning | 87% | |
24. | Kiiwetinoong | NDP leaning | 87% | |
25. | Kitchener Centre | NDP leaning | 84% | |
26. | Scarborough Southwest | NDP leaning | 83% | |
27. | St. Catharines | NDP leaning | 81% | |
28. | Toronto Centre | NDP leaning | 80% | |
29. | Hamilton West—Ancaster—Dundas | Toss up | 66% | |
30. | Brampton North | Toss up | 58% | |
31. | Niagara Centre | Toss up | 56% | |
32. | Kingston and the Islands | Toss up | 52% | |
33. | York South—Weston | Toss up | 52% | |
34. | Toronto—St. Paul`s | Toss up | 49% | |
35. | Humber River—Black Creek | Toss up | 45% | |
36. | Essex | Toss up | 45% | |
37. | Oshawa | Toss up | 44% | |
38. | Thunder Bay—Atikokan | OLP leaning | 19% | |
39. | Brantford—Brant | PCO leaning | 19% | |
40. | Brampton Centre | PCO leaning | 16% | |
41. | Ottawa Centre | OLP likely | 9% | |
42. | Kitchener South—Hespeler | PCO likely | 8% | |
43. | Brampton West | PCO likely | 5% | |
44. | Kitchener—Conestoga | PCO likely | 3% | |
45. | Scarborough—Rouge Park | PCO likely | 2% | |
46. | Sarnia—Lambton | PCO likely | 2% | |
47. | Flamborough—Glanbrook | PCO likely | 1% | |
48. | Sault Ste. Marie | PCO likely | 1% | |
49. | Chatham-Kent—Leamington | PCO likely | <1% |