New Democratic Party

Note: The seats-per-vote function, or vote efficiency, is not a linear function, but can be approximated as one over narrow vote intervals.

Ranked list of favourable electoral districts | New Democratic Party

Rank	Electoral districts	Last projection	Odds of winning
1.	Toronto—Danforth	Safe NDP	>99%
2.	Davenport	Safe NDP	>99%
3.	Ottawa Centre	Safe NDP	>99%
4.	Hamilton Centre	Likely NDP	99%
5.	Waterloo	Likely NDP	99%
6.	University—Rosedale	Likely NDP	97%
7.	Kiiwetinoong	Likely NDP	97%
8.	Ottawa West—Nepean	Likely NDP	95%
9.	Parkdale—High Park	Likely NDP	95%
10.	Spadina—Fort York	Likely NDP	92%
11.	Niagara Falls	Likely NDP	90%
12.	London North Centre	Leaning NDP	70%
13.	Toronto Centre	Toss up OLP/NDP	70%
14.	London West	Toss up PCPO/NDP	67%
15.	Scarborough Southwest	Toss up PCPO/NDP	63%
16.	London—Fanshawe	Toss up PCPO/NDP	63%
17.	Nickel Belt	Toss up PCPO/NDP	57%
18.	Windsor West	Toss up PCPO/NDP	50%
19.	Thunder Bay—Superior North	Toss up PCPO/NDP	31%
20.	Sudbury	Toss up PCPO/NDP	30%
21.	St. Catharines	Leaning PCPO	27%
22.	Timiskaming—Cochrane	Leaning PCPO	24%
23.	Hamilton West—Ancaster—Dundas	Leaning PCPO	18%
24.	Niagara Centre	Leaning PCPO	16%
25.	Mushkegowuk—James Bay	Leaning PCPO	13%
26.	Oshawa	Leaning PCPO	12%
27.	Humber River—Black Creek	Likely PCPO	8%
28.	Sault Ste. Marie	Likely PCPO	2%