338Canada.com - Ontario - New Democratic Party





Last update: March 31, 2021

LeaderAndrea Horwath
Popular vote in 201833.6%
Current vote projection26.8% ± 4.7%
Current number of MP's40
Current seat projection32 ± 12



Ranked list of electoral districts favourable to the New Democratic Party



Rank Electoral districts Current party Last projection Odds of winning
1. Hamilton Centre NDP safe >99%
2. Toronto—Danforth NDP safe >99%
3. Nickel Belt NDP safe >99%
4. Davenport NDP safe >99%
5. Parkdale—High Park NDP safe >99%
6. Timiskaming—Cochrane NDP safe >99%
7. Windsor—Tecumseh NDP safe >99%
8. Algoma—Manitoulin NDP safe >99%
9. London—Fanshawe NDP likely >99%
10. Hamilton Mountain NDP likely 99%
11. London West NDP likely 99%
12. Timmins NDP likely 98%
13. Hamilton East—Stoney Creek NDP likely 98%
14. Windsor West NDP likely 98%
15. University—Rosedale NDP likely 96%
16. Waterloo NDP likely 94%
17. London North Centre NDP likely 93%
18. Sudbury NDP likely 92%
19. Brampton East NDP likely 90%
20. Spadina—Fort York NDP likely 90%
21. Niagara Falls NDP leaning 87%
22. Beaches—East York NDP leaning 87%
23. Mushkegowuk—James Bay NDP leaning 87%
24. Kiiwetinoong NDP leaning 87%
25. Kitchener Centre NDP leaning 84%
26. Scarborough Southwest NDP leaning 83%
27. St. Catharines NDP leaning 81%
28. Toronto Centre NDP leaning 80%
29. Hamilton West—Ancaster—Dundas Toss up 66%
30. Brampton North Toss up 58%
31. Niagara Centre Toss up 56%
32. Kingston and the Islands Toss up 52%
33. York South—Weston Toss up 52%
34. Toronto—St. Paul`s Toss up 49%
35. Humber River—Black Creek Toss up 45%
36. Essex Toss up 45%
37. Oshawa Toss up 44%
38. Thunder Bay—Atikokan OLP leaning 19%
39. Brantford—Brant PCO leaning 19%
40. Brampton Centre PCO leaning 16%
41. Ottawa Centre OLP likely 9%
42. Kitchener South—Hespeler PCO likely 8%
43. Brampton West PCO likely 5%
44. Kitchener—Conestoga PCO likely 3%
45. Scarborough—Rouge Park PCO likely 2%
46. Sarnia—Lambton PCO likely 2%
47. Flamborough—Glanbrook PCO likely 1%
48. Sault Ste. Marie PCO likely 1%
49. Chatham-Kent—Leamington PCO likely <1%
Rank Electoral districts Projection
1. Hamilton Centre NDP safe
2. Toronto—Danforth NDP safe
3. Nickel Belt NDP safe
4. Davenport NDP safe
5. Parkdale—High Park NDP safe
6. Timiskaming—Cochrane NDP safe
7. Windsor—Tecumseh NDP safe
8. Algoma—Manitoulin NDP safe
9. London—Fanshawe NDP likely
10. Hamilton Mountain NDP likely
11. London West NDP likely
12. Timmins NDP likely
13. Hamilton East—Stoney Creek NDP likely
14. Windsor West NDP likely
15. University—Rosedale NDP likely
16. Waterloo NDP likely
17. London North Centre NDP likely
18. Sudbury NDP likely
19. Brampton East NDP likely
20. Spadina—Fort York NDP likely
21. Niagara Falls NDP leaning
22. Beaches—East York NDP leaning
23. Mushkegowuk—James Bay NDP leaning
24. Kiiwetinoong NDP leaning
25. Kitchener Centre NDP leaning
26. Scarborough Southwest NDP leaning
27. St. Catharines NDP leaning
28. Toronto Centre NDP leaning
29. Hamilton West—Ancaster—Dundas Toss up
30. Brampton North Toss up
31. Niagara Centre Toss up
32. Kingston and the Islands Toss up
33. York South—Weston Toss up
34. Toronto—St. Paul`s Toss up
35. Humber River—Black Creek Toss up
36. Essex Toss up
37. Oshawa Toss up
38. Thunder Bay—Atikokan OLP leaning
39. Brantford—Brant PCO leaning
40. Brampton Centre PCO leaning
41. Ottawa Centre OLP likely
42. Kitchener South—Hespeler PCO likely
43. Brampton West PCO likely
44. Kitchener—Conestoga PCO likely
45. Scarborough—Rouge Park PCO likely
46. Sarnia—Lambton PCO likely
47. Flamborough—Glanbrook PCO likely
48. Sault Ste. Marie PCO likely
49. Chatham-Kent—Leamington PCO likely



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