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Ontario

New Democratic Party





Last update: February 20, 2025

LeaderMarit Stiles
Popular vote in 202223.7%
Current vote projection18.3% ± 2.5%
Current number of MPP28
Current seat projection17 [8-26]

Seat projection Popular vote projection | February 20, 2025 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 14% 15% 16% 17% 18% 19% 20% 21% 22% 23% 24% Vote efficiency | NDP 338Canada Ontario 4.1 seat/% 17 [8-26] 18% ± 3% 2018 2022
Note: The seats-per-vote function, or vote efficiency, is not a linear function, but can be approximated as one over narrow vote intervals.


Vote projection | February 20, 2025

13% 14% 15% 16% 17% 18% 19% 20% 21% 22% 23% 14% 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% Min. 15.7% ▼ 18.3% ± 2.5% ▼ Max. 20.8% ▼ 2022 23.7% Probabilities % NDP

Seat projection | February 20, 2025

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% Min. 8 ▼ 17 ▼ Max. 26 ▼ 2022 31 seats Probabilities % NDP

Ranked list of favourable electoral districts | New Democratic Party



Rank Electoral districts Current party Last projection Odds of winning
1. Davenport Safe NDP >99%
2. Ottawa Centre Safe NDP >99%
3. Toronto—Danforth Safe NDP >99%
4. Parkdale—High Park Safe NDP >99%
5. Hamilton Centre Likely NDP >99%
6. Spadina—Fort York Leaning NDP 84%
7. Kiiwetinoong Leaning NDP 80%
8. London—Fanshawe Leaning NDP 80%
9. Nickel Belt Leaning NDP 79%
10. Scarborough Southwest Leaning NDP 75%
11. London North Centre Leaning NDP 74%
12. London West Toss up PCPO/NDP 69%
13. Waterloo Toss up PCPO/NDP 68%
14. Hamilton Mountain Toss up PCPO/NDP 67%
15. Windsor West Toss up PCPO/NDP 54%
16. Sudbury Toss up PCPO/NDP 52%
17. Niagara Falls Toss up PCPO/NDP 51%
18. Mushkegowuk—James Bay Toss up PCPO/NDP 50%
19. University—Rosedale Toss up OLP/NDP 46%
20. Algoma—Manitoulin Toss up PCPO/NDP 43%
21. Hamilton West—Ancaster—Dundas Toss up PCPO/NDP 37%
22. Timiskaming—Cochrane Toss up PCPO/NDP 33%
23. Toronto Centre Leaning OLP 29%
24. Thunder Bay—Superior North Toss up OLP/PCPO/NDP 28%
25. Ottawa West—Nepean Leaning PCPO 25%
26. Oshawa Leaning PCPO 22%
27. Toronto—St. Paul’s Leaning OLP 20%
28. St. Catharines Leaning PCPO 16%
29. Humber River—Black Creek Toss up OLP/PCPO/NDP 12%
30. Niagara Centre Likely PCPO 7%
31. Thunder Bay—Atikokan Leaning PCPO 1%