New Democratic Party

Note: The seats-per-vote function, or vote efficiency, is not a linear function, but can be approximated as one over narrow vote intervals.

Ranked list of favourable electoral districts | New Democratic Party

Rank	Electoral districts	Last projection	Odds of winning
1.	Davenport	Safe NDP	>99%
2.	Ottawa Centre	Safe NDP	>99%
3.	Toronto—Danforth	Safe NDP	>99%
4.	Hamilton Centre	Safe NDP	>99%
5.	Parkdale—High Park	Safe NDP	>99%
6.	Scarborough Southwest	Likely NDP	>99%
7.	Spadina—Fort York	Likely NDP	98%
8.	Waterloo	Likely NDP	98%
9.	Nickel Belt	Likely NDP	97%
10.	Kiiwetinoong	Likely NDP	96%
11.	Hamilton Mountain	Likely NDP	95%
12.	London—Fanshawe	Likely NDP	92%
13.	University—Rosedale	Leaning NDP	84%
14.	London West	Leaning NDP	82%
15.	Niagara Falls	Leaning NDP	80%
16.	London North Centre	Leaning NDP	78%
17.	Hamilton West—Ancaster—Dundas	Toss up PCPO/NDP	67%
18.	Algoma—Manitoulin	Toss up PCPO/NDP	62%
19.	Mushkegowuk—James Bay	Toss up PCPO/NDP	59%
20.	Windsor West	Toss up PCPO/NDP	57%
21.	Sudbury	Toss up OLP/PCPO/NDP	57%
22.	Toronto Centre	Toss up OLP/NDP	53%
23.	Ottawa West—Nepean	Toss up PCPO/NDP	52%
24.	St. Catharines	Toss up PCPO/NDP	49%
25.	Oshawa	Toss up PCPO/NDP	46%
26.	Timiskaming—Cochrane	Toss up PCPO/NDP	41%
27.	Niagara Centre	Leaning PCPO	27%
28.	Toronto—St. Paul’s	Leaning OLP	27%
29.	Humber River—Black Creek	Toss up OLP/PCPO/NDP	20%
30.	York South—Weston	Leaning PCPO	17%
31.	Beaches—East York	Likely OLP	7%
32.	Kingston and the Islands	Likely OLP	6%
33.	Thunder Bay—Superior North	Leaning OLP	2%