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Ontario

Windsor—Tecumseh


MPP: Dowie, Andrew (PCPO)

Latest projection: November 12, 2024
Safe PCPO
Windsor—Tecumseh 47% ± 9% PCPO 25% ± 7% NDP 18% ± 6% OLP 4% ± 3% GPO 3% ± 2% ONP PCPO 2022 45.9% 338Canada Popular vote projection | November 12, 2024
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Windsor—Tecumseh >99% PCPO <1% NDP <1% OLP Odds of winning | November 12, 2024
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).


Popular vote projection | Windsor—Tecumseh

OLP 18% ± 6% PCPO 47% ± 9% NDP 25% ± 7% Popular vote projection % | Windsor—Tecumseh 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2022-05-01 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 2025-09-01 Election 2022 OLP PCPO NDP November 12, 2024 2022-04-30 NDP 43% PCPO 29% OLP 15% 2022-04-30 2022-05-03 NDP 44% PCPO 28% OLP 13% 2022-05-03 2022-05-04 NDP 43% PCPO 29% OLP 14% 2022-05-04 2022-05-05 NDP 43% PCPO 29% OLP 14% 2022-05-05 2022-05-06 NDP 43% PCPO 29% OLP 14% 2022-05-06 2022-05-07 NDP 43% PCPO 29% OLP 14% 2022-05-07 2022-05-08 NDP 43% PCPO 28% OLP 14% 2022-05-08 2022-05-09 NDP 43% PCPO 29% OLP 15% 2022-05-09 2022-05-10 NDP 43% PCPO 28% OLP 15% 2022-05-10 2022-05-11 NDP 43% PCPO 29% OLP 14% 2022-05-11 2022-05-12 NDP 42% PCPO 29% OLP 14% 2022-05-12 2022-05-13 NDP 42% PCPO 30% OLP 14% 2022-05-13 2022-05-14 NDP 42% PCPO 29% OLP 14% 2022-05-14 2022-05-15 NDP 42% PCPO 30% OLP 14% 2022-05-15 2022-05-16 NDP 42% PCPO 29% OLP 14% 2022-05-16 2022-05-17 NDP 40% PCPO 29% OLP 17% 2022-05-17 2022-05-18 NDP 40% PCPO 29% OLP 17% 2022-05-18 2022-05-19 NDP 39% PCPO 28% OLP 16% 2022-05-19 2022-05-20 NDP 39% PCPO 27% OLP 16% 2022-05-20 2022-05-21 NDP 39% PCPO 27% OLP 16% 2022-05-21 2022-05-22 NDP 40% PCPO 27% OLP 16% 2022-05-22 2022-05-23 NDP 39% PCPO 28% OLP 16% 2022-05-23 2022-05-24 NDP 39% PCPO 28% OLP 16% 2022-05-24 2022-05-25 NDP 38% PCPO 28% OLP 16% 2022-05-25 2022-05-26 NDP 38% PCPO 28% OLP 16% 2022-05-26 2022-05-27 NDP 38% PCPO 28% OLP 16% 2022-05-27 2022-05-28 NDP 38% PCPO 29% OLP 16% 2022-05-28 2022-05-29 NDP 38% PCPO 29% OLP 16% 2022-05-29 2022-05-30 NDP 40% PCPO 28% OLP 14% 2022-05-30 2022-05-31 NDP 40% PCPO 28% OLP 14% 2022-05-31 2022-06-01 NDP 40% PCPO 29% OLP 14% 2022-06-01 2022-06-03 PCPO 46% NDP 30% OLP 14% 2022-06-03 2022-12-30 PCPO 45% NDP 30% OLP 15% 2022-12-30 2023-02-15 PCPO 46% NDP 28% OLP 15% 2023-02-15 2023-03-09 PCPO 46% NDP 28% OLP 16% 2023-03-09 2023-03-17 PCPO 46% NDP 28% OLP 16% 2023-03-17 2023-04-16 PCPO 46% NDP 29% OLP 15% 2023-04-16 2023-07-07 PCPO 42% NDP 31% OLP 15% 2023-07-07 2023-07-22 PCPO 42% NDP 31% OLP 15% 2023-07-22 2023-07-28 PCPO 43% NDP 31% OLP 15% 2023-07-28 2023-08-26 PCPO 43% NDP 30% OLP 15% 2023-08-26 2023-10-07 PCPO 41% NDP 32% OLP 16% 2023-10-07 2023-10-23 PCPO 43% NDP 31% OLP 15% 2023-10-23 2023-12-01 PCPO 46% NDP 30% OLP 15% 2023-12-01 2023-12-20 PCPO 45% NDP 30% OLP 16% 2023-12-20 2024-02-02 PCPO 45% NDP 30% OLP 16% 2024-02-02 2024-02-20 PCPO 43% NDP 27% OLP 20% 2024-02-20 2024-03-05 PCPO 45% NDP 26% OLP 20% 2024-03-05 2024-04-04 PCPO 45% NDP 27% OLP 19% 2024-04-04 2024-05-03 PCPO 46% NDP 26% OLP 18% 2024-05-03 2024-06-30 PCPO 46% NDP 26% OLP 17% 2024-06-30 2024-07-29 PCPO 48% NDP 25% OLP 17% 2024-07-29 2024-10-09 PCPO 47% NDP 25% OLP 18% 2024-10-09 2024-11-11 PCPO 47% NDP 25% OLP 18% 2024-11-11

Odds of winning | Windsor—Tecumseh

OLP <1% PCPO >99% NDP <1% GPO <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2022-05-01 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 2025-09-01 Election 2022 OLP PCPO NDP GPO November 12, 2024 2022-04-30 NDP 99% PCPO 1% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2022-04-30 2022-05-03 NDP >99% PCPO <1% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2022-05-03 2022-05-04 NDP 99% PCPO 1% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2022-05-04 2022-05-05 NDP 99% PCPO 1% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2022-05-05 2022-05-06 NDP 99% PCPO 1% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2022-05-06 2022-05-07 NDP >99% PCPO <1% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2022-05-07 2022-05-08 NDP >99% PCPO <1% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2022-05-08 2022-05-09 NDP 99% PCPO 1% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2022-05-09 2022-05-10 NDP >99% PCPO <1% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2022-05-10 2022-05-11 NDP 99% PCPO 1% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2022-05-11 2022-05-12 NDP 99% PCPO 1% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2022-05-12 2022-05-13 NDP 99% PCPO 1% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2022-05-13 2022-05-14 NDP 99% PCPO 1% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2022-05-14 2022-05-15 NDP 99% PCPO 1% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2022-05-15 2022-05-16 NDP 99% PCPO 1% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2022-05-16 2022-05-17 NDP 98% PCPO 2% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2022-05-17 2022-05-18 NDP 99% PCPO 1% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2022-05-18 2022-05-19 NDP 99% PCPO 1% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2022-05-19 2022-05-20 NDP 99% PCPO 1% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2022-05-20 2022-05-21 NDP 99% PCPO 1% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2022-05-21 2022-05-22 NDP 99% PCPO 1% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2022-05-22 2022-05-23 NDP 99% PCPO 1% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2022-05-23 2022-05-24 NDP 99% PCPO 1% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2022-05-24 2022-05-25 NDP 99% PCPO 1% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2022-05-25 2022-05-26 NDP 99% PCPO 1% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2022-05-26 2022-05-27 NDP 99% PCPO 1% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2022-05-27 2022-05-28 NDP 97% PCPO 3% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2022-05-28 2022-05-29 NDP 97% PCPO 3% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2022-05-29 2022-05-30 NDP 99% PCPO 1% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2022-05-30 2022-05-31 NDP 98% PCPO 2% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2022-05-31 2022-06-01 NDP 98% PCPO 2% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2022-06-01 2022-06-03 PCPO >99% NDP <1% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2022-06-03 2022-12-30 PCPO 99% NDP 1% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2022-12-30 2023-02-15 PCPO >99% NDP <1% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2023-02-15 2023-03-09 PCPO >99% NDP <1% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2023-03-09 2023-03-17 PCPO >99% NDP <1% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2023-03-17 2023-04-16 PCPO >99% NDP <1% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2023-04-16 2023-07-07 PCPO 97% NDP 3% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2023-07-07 2023-07-22 PCPO 97% NDP 3% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2023-07-22 2023-07-28 PCPO 99% NDP 1% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2023-07-28 2023-08-26 PCPO 99% NDP 1% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2023-08-26 2023-10-07 PCPO 95% NDP 5% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2023-10-07 2023-10-23 PCPO 98% NDP 2% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2023-10-23 2023-12-01 PCPO >99% NDP <1% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2023-12-01 2023-12-20 PCPO >99% NDP <1% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2023-12-20 2024-02-02 PCPO >99% NDP <1% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2024-02-02 2024-02-20 PCPO >99% NDP <1% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2024-02-20 2024-03-05 PCPO >99% NDP <1% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2024-03-05 2024-04-04 PCPO >99% NDP <1% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2024-04-04 2024-05-03 PCPO >99% NDP <1% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2024-05-03 2024-06-30 PCPO >99% NDP <1% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2024-06-30 2024-07-29 PCPO >99% GPO <1% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2024-07-29 2024-10-09 PCPO >99% GPO <1% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2024-10-09 2024-11-11 PCPO >99% GPO <1% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2024-11-11

Recent electoral history | Windsor—Tecumseh



2014 2018 2022 Proj. PCPO 15.0% 27.0% 45.9% 47% ± 9% NDP 62.2% 58.4% 30.0% 25% ± 7% OLP 15.3% 8.1% 14.5% 18% ± 6% ONP 0.0% 0.0% 3.2% 3% ± 2% GPO 5.8% 4.4% 2.6% 4% ± 3% NBPO 0.0% 0.0% 2.0% 2% ± 2%