Bruce—Grey—Owen Sound


MPP elect: Paul Vickers (PCPO)
Latest projection: February 28, 2025
Safe PCPO

Candidates | Bruce—Grey—Owen Sound


PC Party of Ontario Paul Vickers
Liberal Party Selwyn J. Hicks
Ontario NDP James Harris
Green Party Joel Loughead
New Blue Party Vincent Grimaldi
Alliance Matt Fritz
Libertarian Party Michael Butt
Stop the New Sex-Ed Agenda Ann Gillies

Candidates listed here are on the Elections Ontario website.

Bruce—Grey—Owen Sound 44% ± 0%▼ PCPO 29% ± 0%▲ OLP 12% ± 0%▲ GPO 8% ± 0%▼ NDP PCPO 2022 48.6% 338Canada Popular vote projection | February 28, 2025
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Bruce—Grey—Owen Sound >99% PCPO <1% OLP <1% GPO Odds of winning | February 28, 2025
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).


Popular vote projection | Bruce—Grey—Owen Sound

OLP 29% ± 0% PCPO 44% ± 0% NDP 8% ± 0% GPO 12% ± 0% Popular vote projection % | Bruce—Grey—Owen Sound 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2025-02-01 2025-02-15 2025-03-01 Election 2025 Campaign begins OLP PCPO NDP GPO February 28, 2025 2025-01-27 PCPO 48% OLP 23% NDP 12% GPO 11% 2025-01-27 2025-01-29 PCPO 49% OLP 23% NDP 11% GPO 11% 2025-01-29 2025-01-31 PCPO 52% OLP 23% NDP 11% GPO 10% 2025-01-31 2025-02-02 PCPO 53% OLP 23% NDP 11% GPO 10% 2025-02-02 2025-02-03 PCPO 52% OLP 23% NDP 11% GPO 10% 2025-02-03 2025-02-04 PCPO 52% OLP 24% NDP 10% GPO 10% 2025-02-04 2025-02-05 PCPO 52% OLP 24% NDP 10% GPO 10% 2025-02-05 2025-02-06 PCPO 53% OLP 23% NDP 10% GPO 10% 2025-02-06 2025-02-07 PCPO 53% OLP 23% NDP 10% GPO 10% 2025-02-07 2025-02-08 PCPO 53% OLP 23% NDP 10% GPO 10% 2025-02-08 2025-02-09 PCPO 53% OLP 23% NDP 10% GPO 10% 2025-02-09 2025-02-10 PCPO 53% OLP 23% NDP 10% GPO 10% 2025-02-10 2025-02-11 PCPO 53% OLP 23% GPO 10% NDP 10% 2025-02-11 2025-02-12 PCPO 53% OLP 24% GPO 10% NDP 9% 2025-02-12 2025-02-13 PCPO 54% OLP 24% GPO 10% NDP 10% 2025-02-13 2025-02-14 PCPO 54% OLP 24% GPO 10% NDP 9% 2025-02-14 2025-02-15 PCPO 54% OLP 24% GPO 10% NDP 9% 2025-02-15 2025-02-16 PCPO 54% OLP 24% GPO 10% NDP 9% 2025-02-16 2025-02-17 PCPO 53% OLP 25% GPO 10% NDP 9% 2025-02-17 2025-02-18 PCPO 53% OLP 25% GPO 10% NDP 9% 2025-02-18 2025-02-19 PCPO 54% OLP 24% GPO 10% NDP 9% 2025-02-19 2025-02-20 PCPO 54% OLP 24% GPO 10% NDP 9% 2025-02-20 2025-02-21 PCPO 54% OLP 24% GPO 10% NDP 9% 2025-02-21 2025-02-22 PCPO 54% OLP 24% GPO 10% NDP 9% 2025-02-22 2025-02-23 PCPO 54% OLP 24% GPO 10% NDP 9% 2025-02-23 2025-02-24 PCPO 54% OLP 24% GPO 10% NDP 9% 2025-02-24 2025-02-25 PCPO 54% OLP 24% GPO 10% NDP 9% 2025-02-25 2025-02-26 PCPO 55% OLP 24% GPO 10% NDP 9% 2025-02-26 2025-02-27 PCPO 55% OLP 24% GPO 10% NDP 9% 2025-02-27 2025-02-28 PCPO 44% OLP 29% GPO 12% NDP 8% 2025-02-28

Odds of winning | Bruce—Grey—Owen Sound

OLP <1% PCPO >99% NDP <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2025-02-01 2025-02-15 2025-03-01 Election 2025 Campaign begins OLP PCPO NDP February 28, 2025 2025-01-27 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-01-27 2025-01-29 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-01-29 2025-01-31 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-01-31 2025-02-02 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-02 2025-02-03 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-03 2025-02-04 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-04 2025-02-05 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-05 2025-02-06 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-06 2025-02-07 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-07 2025-02-08 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-08 2025-02-09 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-09 2025-02-10 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-10 2025-02-11 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-11 2025-02-12 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-12 2025-02-13 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-13 2025-02-14 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-14 2025-02-15 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-15 2025-02-16 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-16 2025-02-17 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-17 2025-02-18 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-18 2025-02-19 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-19 2025-02-20 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-20 2025-02-21 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-21 2025-02-22 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-22 2025-02-23 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-23 2025-02-24 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-24 2025-02-25 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-25 2025-02-26 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-26 2025-02-27 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-27 2025-02-28 PCPO >99% OLP <1% NDP <1% 2025-02-28

Recent electoral history | Bruce—Grey—Owen Sound



2014 2018 2022 Proj. PCPO 47.5% 54.7% 48.6% 44% ± 0% OLP 27.1% 12.3% 20.3% 29% ± 0% NDP 15.9% 24.1% 13.9% 8% ± 0% GPO 8.6% 6.0% 8.8% 12% ± 0% NBPO 0.0% 0.0% 2.7% 2% ± 0%