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Ontario

Nickel Belt


MPP: Gélinas, France (NDP)

Latest projection: November 12, 2024
Likely NDP
Nickel Belt 42% ± 10% NDP 32% ± 9% PCPO 16% ± 6% OLP 4% ± 3%▼ GPO 4% ± 3% NBPO NDP 2022 50.8% 338Canada Popular vote projection | November 12, 2024
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Nickel Belt 94%▼ NDP 6%▲ PCPO <1% OLP Odds of winning | November 12, 2024
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).


Popular vote projection | Nickel Belt

OLP 16% ± 6% PCPO 32% ± 9% NDP 42% ± 10% GPO 4% ± 3% NBPO 4% ± 3% Popular vote projection % | Nickel Belt 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2022-05-01 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 2025-09-01 Election 2022 OLP PCPO NDP GPO NBPO November 12, 2024 2022-04-30 NDP 47% PCPO 24% OLP 16% GPO 5% 2022-04-30 2022-05-03 NDP 48% PCPO 23% OLP 16% GPO 5% 2022-05-03 2022-05-04 NDP 47% PCPO 24% OLP 16% GPO 5% 2022-05-04 2022-05-05 NDP 47% PCPO 24% OLP 16% GPO 5% 2022-05-05 2022-05-06 NDP 47% PCPO 24% OLP 16% GPO 5% 2022-05-06 2022-05-07 NDP 47% PCPO 24% OLP 16% GPO 5% 2022-05-07 2022-05-08 NDP 47% PCPO 24% OLP 16% GPO 5% 2022-05-08 2022-05-09 NDP 47% PCPO 24% OLP 17% GPO 5% 2022-05-09 2022-05-10 NDP 47% PCPO 23% OLP 17% GPO 5% 2022-05-10 2022-05-11 NDP 47% PCPO 24% OLP 16% GPO 5% 2022-05-11 2022-05-12 NDP 46% PCPO 24% OLP 17% GPO 5% 2022-05-12 2022-05-13 NDP 46% PCPO 25% OLP 17% GPO 5% 2022-05-13 2022-05-14 NDP 48% PCPO 26% OLP 17% GPO 6% 2022-05-14 2022-05-15 NDP 48% PCPO 26% OLP 17% GPO 5% 2022-05-15 2022-05-16 NDP 48% PCPO 25% OLP 17% GPO 5% 2022-05-16 2022-05-17 NDP 46% PCPO 25% OLP 21% GPO 6% 2022-05-17 2022-05-18 NDP 50% PCPO 25% OLP 16% GPO 6% 2022-05-18 2022-05-19 NDP 49% PCPO 24% OLP 16% GPO 7% 2022-05-19 2022-05-20 NDP 49% PCPO 24% OLP 15% GPO 8% 2022-05-20 2022-05-21 NDP 49% PCPO 24% OLP 15% GPO 9% 2022-05-21 2022-05-22 NDP 49% PCPO 24% OLP 15% GPO 9% 2022-05-22 2022-05-23 NDP 49% PCPO 24% OLP 15% GPO 9% 2022-05-23 2022-05-24 NDP 49% PCPO 24% OLP 15% GPO 9% 2022-05-24 2022-05-25 NDP 48% PCPO 24% OLP 15% GPO 9% 2022-05-25 2022-05-26 NDP 48% PCPO 24% OLP 15% GPO 9% 2022-05-26 2022-05-27 NDP 48% PCPO 24% OLP 15% GPO 9% 2022-05-27 2022-05-28 NDP 47% PCPO 25% OLP 15% GPO 9% 2022-05-28 2022-05-29 NDP 47% PCPO 25% OLP 15% GPO 9% 2022-05-29 2022-05-30 NDP 48% PCPO 25% OLP 15% GPO 8% 2022-05-30 2022-05-31 NDP 48% PCPO 25% OLP 15% GPO 8% 2022-05-31 2022-06-01 NDP 48% PCPO 26% OLP 14% GPO 8% 2022-06-01 2022-06-03 NDP 51% PCPO 30% OLP 10% GPO 3% 2022-06-03 2022-12-30 NDP 51% PCPO 29% OLP 10% GPO 3% 2022-12-30 2023-02-15 NDP 49% PCPO 30% OLP 11% GPO 4% 2023-02-15 2023-03-09 NDP 48% PCPO 30% OLP 11% GPO 4% 2023-03-09 2023-03-17 NDP 49% PCPO 30% OLP 11% GPO 3% 2023-03-17 2023-04-16 NDP 49% PCPO 30% OLP 10% GPO 3% 2023-04-16 2023-07-07 NDP 52% PCPO 27% OLP 10% GPO 5% 2023-07-07 2023-07-22 NDP 52% PCPO 27% OLP 10% GPO 4% 2023-07-22 2023-07-28 NDP 51% PCPO 28% OLP 10% GPO 4% 2023-07-28 2023-08-26 NDP 51% PCPO 28% OLP 10% GPO 4% 2023-08-26 2023-10-07 NDP 52% PCPO 26% OLP 11% GPO 4% 2023-10-07 2023-10-23 NDP 52% PCPO 27% OLP 10% GPO 4% 2023-10-23 2023-12-01 NDP 51% PCPO 30% OLP 10% GPO 4% 2023-12-01 2023-12-20 NDP 51% PCPO 29% OLP 11% GPO 4% 2023-12-20 2024-02-02 NDP 51% PCPO 29% OLP 11% GPO 4% 2024-02-02 2024-02-20 NDP 41% PCPO 26% OLP 24% GPO 4% 2024-02-20 2024-03-05 NDP 39% PCPO 28% OLP 23% GPO 4% 2024-03-05 2024-04-04 NDP 41% PCPO 28% OLP 22% GPO 4% 2024-04-04 2024-05-03 NDP 43% PCPO 31% OLP 16% GPO 4% 2024-05-03 2024-06-30 NDP 43% PCPO 31% OLP 15% GPO 5% 2024-06-30 2024-07-29 NDP 41% PCPO 33% OLP 16% GPO 5% 2024-07-29 2024-10-09 NDP 42% PCPO 32% OLP 16% GPO 5% 2024-10-09 2024-11-11 NDP 42% PCPO 32% OLP 16% GPO 4% 2024-11-11

Odds of winning | Nickel Belt

OLP <1% PCPO 6% NDP 94% GPO <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2022-05-01 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 2025-09-01 Election 2022 OLP PCPO NDP GPO November 12, 2024 2022-04-30 NDP >99% PCPO <1% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2022-04-30 2022-05-03 NDP >99% PCPO <1% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2022-05-03 2022-05-04 NDP >99% PCPO <1% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2022-05-04 2022-05-05 NDP >99% PCPO <1% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2022-05-05 2022-05-06 NDP >99% PCPO <1% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2022-05-06 2022-05-07 NDP >99% PCPO <1% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2022-05-07 2022-05-08 NDP >99% GPO <1% PCPO <1% OLP <1% 2022-05-08 2022-05-09 NDP >99% PCPO <1% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2022-05-09 2022-05-10 NDP >99% PCPO <1% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2022-05-10 2022-05-11 NDP >99% PCPO <1% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2022-05-11 2022-05-12 NDP >99% PCPO <1% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2022-05-12 2022-05-13 NDP >99% PCPO <1% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2022-05-13 2022-05-14 NDP >99% PCPO <1% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2022-05-14 2022-05-15 NDP >99% PCPO <1% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2022-05-15 2022-05-16 NDP >99% PCPO <1% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2022-05-16 2022-05-17 NDP >99% PCPO <1% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2022-05-17 2022-05-18 NDP >99% GPO <1% PCPO <1% OLP <1% 2022-05-18 2022-05-19 NDP >99% GPO <1% PCPO <1% OLP <1% 2022-05-19 2022-05-20 NDP >99% PCPO <1% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2022-05-20 2022-05-21 NDP >99% GPO <1% PCPO <1% OLP <1% 2022-05-21 2022-05-22 NDP >99% GPO <1% PCPO <1% OLP <1% 2022-05-22 2022-05-23 NDP >99% PCPO <1% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2022-05-23 2022-05-24 NDP >99% GPO <1% PCPO <1% OLP <1% 2022-05-24 2022-05-25 NDP >99% PCPO <1% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2022-05-25 2022-05-26 NDP >99% GPO <1% PCPO <1% OLP <1% 2022-05-26 2022-05-27 NDP >99% PCPO <1% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2022-05-27 2022-05-28 NDP >99% PCPO <1% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2022-05-28 2022-05-29 NDP >99% PCPO <1% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2022-05-29 2022-05-30 NDP >99% PCPO <1% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2022-05-30 2022-05-31 NDP >99% PCPO <1% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2022-05-31 2022-06-01 NDP >99% PCPO <1% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2022-06-01 2022-06-03 NDP >99% PCPO <1% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2022-06-03 2022-12-30 NDP >99% PCPO <1% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2022-12-30 2023-02-15 NDP >99% PCPO <1% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2023-02-15 2023-03-09 NDP >99% PCPO <1% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2023-03-09 2023-03-17 NDP >99% PCPO <1% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2023-03-17 2023-04-16 NDP >99% PCPO <1% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2023-04-16 2023-07-07 NDP >99% GPO <1% PCPO <1% OLP <1% 2023-07-07 2023-07-22 NDP >99% PCPO <1% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2023-07-22 2023-07-28 NDP >99% PCPO <1% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2023-07-28 2023-08-26 NDP >99% PCPO <1% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2023-08-26 2023-10-07 NDP >99% GPO <1% PCPO <1% OLP <1% 2023-10-07 2023-10-23 NDP >99% PCPO <1% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2023-10-23 2023-12-01 NDP >99% PCPO <1% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2023-12-01 2023-12-20 NDP >99% PCPO <1% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2023-12-20 2024-02-02 NDP >99% PCPO <1% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2024-02-02 2024-02-20 NDP 99% PCPO <1% OLP <1% GPO <1% 2024-02-20 2024-03-05 NDP 97% PCPO 2% OLP <1% GPO <1% 2024-03-05 2024-04-04 NDP 98% PCPO 2% OLP <1% GPO <1% 2024-04-04 2024-05-03 NDP 98% PCPO 2% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2024-05-03 2024-06-30 NDP 97% PCPO 3% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2024-06-30 2024-07-29 NDP 90% PCPO 10% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2024-07-29 2024-10-09 NDP 95% PCPO 5% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2024-10-09 2024-11-11 NDP 94% PCPO 6% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2024-11-11

Recent electoral history | Nickel Belt



2014 2018 2022 Proj. NDP 62.6% 63.5% 50.8% 42% ± 10% PCPO 11.9% 22.0% 29.9% 32% ± 9% OLP 21.9% 8.7% 9.9% 16% ± 6% NBPO 0.0% 0.0% 4.9% 4% ± 3% GPO 3.6% 3.1% 3.0% 4% ± 3% ONP 0.0% 0.0% 1.5% 1% ± 2%