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Ontario

Nickel Belt


MPP: Gélinas, France (NDP)
Latest projection: February 20, 2025
Leaning NDP

Candidates | Nickel Belt


PC Party of Ontario Randy Hazlett
Liberal Party Natalie Labbée
Ontario NDP France Gélinas
Green Party Connie Hill
New Blue Party Paul Divincenzo
Libertarian Party James Chretien

Candidates listed here are on the Elections Ontario website.

Nickel Belt 42% ± 10%▲ NDP 37% ± 9%▼ PCPO 13% ± 6% OLP 4% ± 3% GPO NDP 2022 50.8% 338Canada Popular vote projection | February 20, 2025
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Nickel Belt 79%▲ NDP 21%▼ PCPO <1% OLP Odds of winning | February 20, 2025
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).


Popular vote projection | Nickel Belt

OLP 13% ± 6% PCPO 37% ± 9% NDP 42% ± 10% GPO 4% ± 3% Popular vote projection % | Nickel Belt 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2025-02-01 2025-02-15 2025-03-01 Election 2025 Campaign begins OLP PCPO NDP GPO February 20, 2025 2025-01-27 NDP 45% PCPO 34% OLP 12% GPO 4% 2025-01-27 2025-01-29 NDP 45% PCPO 34% OLP 12% GPO 4% 2025-01-29 2025-01-31 NDP 44% PCPO 37% OLP 12% GPO 4% 2025-01-31 2025-02-02 NDP 44% PCPO 37% OLP 12% GPO 4% 2025-02-02 2025-02-03 NDP 44% PCPO 36% OLP 12% GPO 4% 2025-02-03 2025-02-04 NDP 43% PCPO 37% OLP 13% GPO 4% 2025-02-04 2025-02-05 NDP 43% PCPO 37% OLP 13% GPO 4% 2025-02-05 2025-02-06 NDP 43% PCPO 38% OLP 12% GPO 4% 2025-02-06 2025-02-07 NDP 43% PCPO 38% OLP 13% GPO 4% 2025-02-07 2025-02-08 NDP 43% PCPO 37% OLP 13% GPO 4% 2025-02-08 2025-02-09 NDP 44% PCPO 37% OLP 12% GPO 4% 2025-02-09 2025-02-10 NDP 43% PCPO 37% OLP 12% GPO 4% 2025-02-10 2025-02-11 NDP 42% PCPO 38% OLP 13% GPO 4% 2025-02-11 2025-02-12 NDP 41% PCPO 38% OLP 13% GPO 4% 2025-02-12 2025-02-13 NDP 41% PCPO 38% OLP 13% GPO 4% 2025-02-13 2025-02-14 NDP 41% PCPO 38% OLP 13% GPO 4% 2025-02-14 2025-02-15 NDP 41% PCPO 38% OLP 13% GPO 4% 2025-02-15 2025-02-16 NDP 41% PCPO 38% OLP 13% GPO 4% 2025-02-16 2025-02-17 NDP 42% PCPO 37% OLP 13% GPO 4% 2025-02-17 2025-02-18 NDP 42% PCPO 37% OLP 13% GPO 4% 2025-02-18 2025-02-19 NDP 41% PCPO 38% OLP 13% GPO 4% 2025-02-19 2025-02-20 NDP 42% PCPO 37% OLP 13% GPO 4% 2025-02-20

Odds of winning | Nickel Belt

OLP <1% PCPO 21% NDP 79% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2025-02-01 2025-02-15 2025-03-01 Election 2025 Campaign begins OLP PCPO NDP February 20, 2025 2025-01-27 NDP 96% PCPO 4% OLP <1% 2025-01-27 2025-01-29 NDP 95% PCPO 5% OLP <1% 2025-01-29 2025-01-31 NDP 87% PCPO 13% OLP <1% 2025-01-31 2025-02-02 NDP 87% PCPO 13% OLP <1% 2025-02-02 2025-02-03 NDP 90% PCPO 10% OLP <1% 2025-02-03 2025-02-04 NDP 83% PCPO 17% OLP <1% 2025-02-04 2025-02-05 NDP 82% PCPO 18% OLP <1% 2025-02-05 2025-02-06 NDP 77% PCPO 23% OLP <1% 2025-02-06 2025-02-07 NDP 79% PCPO 21% OLP <1% 2025-02-07 2025-02-08 NDP 82% PCPO 18% OLP <1% 2025-02-08 2025-02-09 NDP 85% PCPO 15% OLP <1% 2025-02-09 2025-02-10 NDP 80% PCPO 20% OLP <1% 2025-02-10 2025-02-11 NDP 76% PCPO 24% OLP <1% 2025-02-11 2025-02-12 NDP 69% PCPO 31% OLP <1% 2025-02-12 2025-02-13 NDP 70% PCPO 30% OLP <1% 2025-02-13 2025-02-14 NDP 68% PCPO 32% OLP <1% 2025-02-14 2025-02-15 NDP 67% PCPO 33% OLP <1% 2025-02-15 2025-02-16 NDP 67% PCPO 33% OLP <1% 2025-02-16 2025-02-17 NDP 77% PCPO 23% OLP <1% 2025-02-17 2025-02-18 NDP 75% PCPO 25% OLP <1% 2025-02-18 2025-02-19 NDP 69% PCPO 31% OLP <1% 2025-02-19 2025-02-20 NDP 79% PCPO 21% OLP <1% 2025-02-20

Recent electoral history | Nickel Belt



2014 2018 2022 Proj. NDP 62.6% 63.5% 50.8% 42% ± 10% PCPO 11.9% 22.0% 29.9% 37% ± 9% OLP 21.9% 8.7% 9.9% 13% ± 6% NBPO 0.0% 0.0% 4.9% 3% ± 2% GPO 3.6% 3.1% 3.0% 4% ± 3%