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Ontario

Flamborough—Glanbrook


MPP: Skelly, Donna (PCPO)
Latest projection: February 20, 2025
Safe PCPO

Candidates | Flamborough—Glanbrook


PC Party of Ontario Donna Skelly
Liberal Party Joshua Bell
Ontario NDP Lilly Noble
Green Party Janet Errygers
New Blue Party Kristen Halfpenny

Candidates listed here are on the Elections Ontario website.

Flamborough—Glanbrook 53% ± 9%▲ PCPO 25% ± 8% OLP 15% ± 6% NDP 6% ± 4% GPO PCPO 2022 46.2% 338Canada Popular vote projection | February 20, 2025
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Flamborough—Glanbrook >99% PCPO <1% OLP <1% NDP Odds of winning | February 20, 2025
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).


Popular vote projection | Flamborough—Glanbrook

OLP 25% ± 8% PCPO 53% ± 9% NDP 15% ± 6% GPO 6% ± 4% Popular vote projection % | Flamborough—Glanbrook 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2025-02-01 2025-02-15 2025-03-01 Election 2025 Campaign begins OLP PCPO NDP GPO February 20, 2025 2025-01-27 PCPO 48% OLP 24% NDP 18% GPO 7% 2025-01-27 2025-01-29 PCPO 49% OLP 24% NDP 18% GPO 7% 2025-01-29 2025-01-31 PCPO 51% OLP 23% NDP 17% GPO 6% 2025-01-31 2025-02-02 PCPO 51% OLP 23% NDP 17% GPO 6% 2025-02-02 2025-02-03 PCPO 51% OLP 23% NDP 17% GPO 6% 2025-02-03 2025-02-04 PCPO 51% OLP 24% NDP 16% GPO 6% 2025-02-04 2025-02-05 PCPO 51% OLP 24% NDP 16% GPO 6% 2025-02-05 2025-02-06 PCPO 52% OLP 23% NDP 16% GPO 6% 2025-02-06 2025-02-07 PCPO 52% OLP 24% NDP 16% GPO 6% 2025-02-07 2025-02-08 PCPO 51% OLP 24% NDP 16% GPO 6% 2025-02-08 2025-02-09 PCPO 51% OLP 23% NDP 17% GPO 6% 2025-02-09 2025-02-10 PCPO 51% OLP 24% NDP 16% GPO 6% 2025-02-10 2025-02-11 PCPO 51% OLP 24% NDP 16% GPO 6% 2025-02-11 2025-02-12 PCPO 52% OLP 25% NDP 15% GPO 6% 2025-02-12 2025-02-13 PCPO 52% OLP 25% NDP 15% GPO 6% 2025-02-13 2025-02-14 PCPO 52% OLP 25% NDP 15% GPO 6% 2025-02-14 2025-02-15 PCPO 53% OLP 25% NDP 15% GPO 6% 2025-02-15 2025-02-16 PCPO 53% OLP 25% NDP 15% GPO 6% 2025-02-16 2025-02-17 PCPO 51% OLP 26% NDP 15% GPO 6% 2025-02-17 2025-02-18 PCPO 52% OLP 26% NDP 15% GPO 6% 2025-02-18 2025-02-19 PCPO 52% OLP 25% NDP 15% GPO 6% 2025-02-19 2025-02-20 PCPO 53% OLP 25% NDP 15% GPO 6% 2025-02-20

Odds of winning | Flamborough—Glanbrook

OLP <1% PCPO >99% NDP <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2025-02-01 2025-02-15 2025-03-01 Election 2025 Campaign begins OLP PCPO NDP February 20, 2025 2025-01-27 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-01-27 2025-01-29 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-01-29 2025-01-31 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-01-31 2025-02-02 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-02 2025-02-03 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-03 2025-02-04 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-04 2025-02-05 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-05 2025-02-06 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-06 2025-02-07 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-07 2025-02-08 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-08 2025-02-09 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-09 2025-02-10 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-10 2025-02-11 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-11 2025-02-12 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-12 2025-02-13 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-13 2025-02-14 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-14 2025-02-15 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-15 2025-02-16 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-16 2025-02-17 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-17 2025-02-18 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-18 2025-02-19 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-19 2025-02-20 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-20

Recent electoral history | Flamborough—Glanbrook



2014 2018 2022 Proj. PCPO 35.5% 43.5% 46.2% 53% ± 9% NDP 22.7% 34.2% 22.7% 15% ± 6% OLP 35.6% 15.4% 20.4% 25% ± 8% GPO 4.5% 4.5% 5.4% 6% ± 4% NBPO 0.0% 0.0% 3.4% 1% ± 2%