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Ontario

Hamilton East—Stoney Creek


MPP: Lumsden, Neil (PCPO)
Latest projection: February 20, 2025
Likely PCPO

Candidates | Hamilton East—Stoney Creek


PC Party of Ontario Neil Lumsden
Liberal Party Heino Doessing
Ontario NDP Zaigham Butt
Green Party Pascale Marchand
New Blue Party Wieslawa Derlatka
Ontario Party Heather Curnew
Communist Parti Drew Garvie

Candidates listed here are on the Elections Ontario website.

Hamilton East—Stoney Creek 42% ± 9% PCPO 27% ± 8% OLP 23% ± 7% NDP 6% ± 4% GPO PCPO 2022 34.6% 338Canada Popular vote projection | February 20, 2025
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Hamilton East—Stoney Creek >99% PCPO <1% OLP <1% NDP Odds of winning | February 20, 2025
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).


Popular vote projection | Hamilton East—Stoney Creek

OLP 27% ± 8% PCPO 42% ± 9% NDP 23% ± 7% GPO 6% ± 4% Popular vote projection % | Hamilton East—Stoney Creek 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2025-02-01 2025-02-15 2025-03-01 Election 2025 Campaign begins OLP PCPO NDP GPO February 20, 2025 2025-01-27 PCPO 36% OLP 25% NDP 22% GPO 6% 2025-01-27 2025-01-29 PCPO 37% OLP 25% NDP 21% GPO 6% 2025-01-29 2025-01-31 PCPO 39% OLP 24% NDP 21% GPO 6% 2025-01-31 2025-02-02 PCPO 39% OLP 24% NDP 21% GPO 6% 2025-02-02 2025-02-03 PCPO 39% OLP 24% NDP 21% GPO 6% 2025-02-03 2025-02-04 PCPO 39% OLP 25% NDP 20% GPO 6% 2025-02-04 2025-02-05 PCPO 39% OLP 25% NDP 20% GPO 6% 2025-02-05 2025-02-06 PCPO 40% OLP 24% NDP 19% GPO 6% 2025-02-06 2025-02-07 PCPO 40% OLP 25% NDP 19% GPO 6% 2025-02-07 2025-02-08 PCPO 39% OLP 25% NDP 20% GPO 6% 2025-02-08 2025-02-09 PCPO 39% OLP 24% NDP 20% GPO 6% 2025-02-09 2025-02-10 PCPO 39% OLP 25% NDP 20% GPO 6% 2025-02-10 2025-02-11 PCPO 39% OLP 25% NDP 19% GPO 6% 2025-02-11 2025-02-12 PCPO 40% OLP 26% NDP 18% GPO 6% 2025-02-12 2025-02-13 PCPO 41% OLP 27% NDP 24% GPO 6% 2025-02-13 2025-02-14 PCPO 41% OLP 27% NDP 23% GPO 6% 2025-02-14 2025-02-15 PCPO 42% OLP 27% NDP 23% GPO 6% 2025-02-15 2025-02-16 PCPO 42% OLP 27% NDP 23% GPO 6% 2025-02-16 2025-02-17 PCPO 41% OLP 28% NDP 23% GPO 6% 2025-02-17 2025-02-18 PCPO 41% OLP 27% NDP 23% GPO 6% 2025-02-18 2025-02-19 PCPO 42% OLP 27% NDP 23% GPO 6% 2025-02-19 2025-02-20 PCPO 42% OLP 27% NDP 23% GPO 6% 2025-02-20

Odds of winning | Hamilton East—Stoney Creek

OLP <1% PCPO >99% NDP <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2025-02-01 2025-02-15 2025-03-01 Election 2025 Campaign begins OLP PCPO NDP February 20, 2025 2025-01-27 PCPO 99% OLP 1% NDP <1% 2025-01-27 2025-01-29 PCPO 99% OLP 1% NDP <1% 2025-01-29 2025-01-31 PCPO >99% OLP <1% NDP <1% 2025-01-31 2025-02-02 PCPO >99% OLP <1% NDP <1% 2025-02-02 2025-02-03 PCPO >99% OLP <1% NDP <1% 2025-02-03 2025-02-04 PCPO >99% OLP <1% NDP <1% 2025-02-04 2025-02-05 PCPO >99% OLP <1% NDP <1% 2025-02-05 2025-02-06 PCPO >99% OLP <1% NDP <1% 2025-02-06 2025-02-07 PCPO >99% OLP <1% NDP <1% 2025-02-07 2025-02-08 PCPO >99% OLP <1% NDP <1% 2025-02-08 2025-02-09 PCPO >99% OLP <1% NDP <1% 2025-02-09 2025-02-10 PCPO >99% OLP <1% NDP <1% 2025-02-10 2025-02-11 PCPO >99% OLP <1% NDP <1% 2025-02-11 2025-02-12 PCPO >99% OLP <1% NDP <1% 2025-02-12 2025-02-13 PCPO >99% OLP <1% NDP <1% 2025-02-13 2025-02-14 PCPO >99% OLP <1% NDP <1% 2025-02-14 2025-02-15 PCPO >99% OLP <1% NDP <1% 2025-02-15 2025-02-16 PCPO >99% OLP <1% NDP <1% 2025-02-16 2025-02-17 PCPO 99% OLP <1% NDP <1% 2025-02-17 2025-02-18 PCPO 99% OLP 1% NDP <1% 2025-02-18 2025-02-19 PCPO >99% OLP <1% NDP <1% 2025-02-19 2025-02-20 PCPO >99% OLP <1% NDP <1% 2025-02-20

Recent electoral history | Hamilton East—Stoney Creek



2014 2018 2022 Proj. PCPO 18.1% 28.7% 34.6% 42% ± 9% NDP 45.9% 51.2% 27.3% 23% ± 7% OLP 29.9% 12.1% 21.1% 27% ± 8% GPO 3.9% 4.3% 4.9% 6% ± 4% ONP 0.0% 0.0% 3.0% 1% ± 2% NBPO 0.0% 0.0% 2.0% 1% ± 1%