logo
Ontario

Perth—Wellington


MPP: Rae, Matthew (PCPO)
Latest projection: February 20, 2025
Safe PCPO

Candidates | Perth—Wellington


PC Party of Ontario Matthew Rae
Liberal Party Ashley Fox
Ontario NDP Jason Davis
Green Party Ian Morton
New Blue Party James Montgomery
Ontario Party Sarah Zenuh
Freedom Party Rob Smink

Candidates listed here are on the Elections Ontario website.

Perth—Wellington 54% ± 9%▲ PCPO 20% ± 7% OLP 15% ± 6% NDP 7% ± 4%▼ GPO PCPO 2022 46.8% 338Canada Popular vote projection | February 20, 2025
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Perth—Wellington >99% PCPO <1% OLP <1% NDP Odds of winning | February 20, 2025
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).


Popular vote projection | Perth—Wellington

OLP 20% ± 7% PCPO 54% ± 9% NDP 15% ± 6% GPO 7% ± 4% Popular vote projection % | Perth—Wellington 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2025-02-01 2025-02-15 2025-03-01 Election 2025 Campaign begins OLP PCPO NDP GPO February 20, 2025 2025-01-27 PCPO 48% OLP 19% NDP 19% GPO 8% 2025-01-27 2025-01-29 PCPO 48% OLP 19% NDP 19% GPO 8% 2025-01-29 2025-01-31 PCPO 52% OLP 19% NDP 18% GPO 8% 2025-01-31 2025-02-02 PCPO 52% OLP 19% NDP 18% GPO 8% 2025-02-02 2025-02-03 PCPO 51% OLP 19% NDP 18% GPO 7% 2025-02-03 2025-02-04 PCPO 52% OLP 20% NDP 17% GPO 8% 2025-02-04 2025-02-05 PCPO 52% OLP 20% NDP 17% GPO 8% 2025-02-05 2025-02-06 PCPO 53% OLP 19% NDP 17% GPO 7% 2025-02-06 2025-02-07 PCPO 53% OLP 19% NDP 17% GPO 7% 2025-02-07 2025-02-08 PCPO 52% OLP 20% NDP 17% GPO 7% 2025-02-08 2025-02-09 PCPO 52% OLP 19% NDP 17% GPO 8% 2025-02-09 2025-02-10 PCPO 52% OLP 19% NDP 17% GPO 8% 2025-02-10 2025-02-11 PCPO 53% OLP 20% NDP 16% GPO 8% 2025-02-11 2025-02-12 PCPO 53% OLP 20% NDP 16% GPO 8% 2025-02-12 2025-02-13 PCPO 53% OLP 20% NDP 16% GPO 8% 2025-02-13 2025-02-14 PCPO 53% OLP 20% NDP 15% GPO 8% 2025-02-14 2025-02-15 PCPO 54% OLP 20% NDP 15% GPO 8% 2025-02-15 2025-02-16 PCPO 54% OLP 20% NDP 15% GPO 8% 2025-02-16 2025-02-17 PCPO 53% OLP 21% NDP 15% GPO 8% 2025-02-17 2025-02-18 PCPO 53% OLP 21% NDP 15% GPO 8% 2025-02-18 2025-02-19 PCPO 53% OLP 20% NDP 15% GPO 8% 2025-02-19 2025-02-20 PCPO 54% OLP 20% NDP 15% GPO 7% 2025-02-20

Odds of winning | Perth—Wellington

OLP <1% PCPO >99% NDP <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2025-02-01 2025-02-15 2025-03-01 Election 2025 Campaign begins OLP PCPO NDP February 20, 2025 2025-01-27 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-01-27 2025-01-29 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-01-29 2025-01-31 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-01-31 2025-02-02 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-02 2025-02-03 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-03 2025-02-04 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-04 2025-02-05 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-05 2025-02-06 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-06 2025-02-07 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-07 2025-02-08 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-08 2025-02-09 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-09 2025-02-10 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-10 2025-02-11 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-11 2025-02-12 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-12 2025-02-13 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-13 2025-02-14 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-14 2025-02-15 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-15 2025-02-16 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-16 2025-02-17 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-17 2025-02-18 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-18 2025-02-19 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-19 2025-02-20 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-20

Recent electoral history | Perth—Wellington



2014 2018 2022 Proj. PCPO 39.0% 50.7% 46.8% 54% ± 9% NDP 18.9% 30.7% 22.1% 15% ± 6% OLP 33.1% 10.8% 16.1% 20% ± 7% GPO 4.9% 5.9% 6.3% 7% ± 4% NBPO 0.0% 0.0% 5.9% 3% ± 2% ONP 0.0% 0.0% 2.4% 1% ± 1%