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Ontario


Perth—Wellington


MPP: Rae, Matthew (PCPO)


Latest projection: April 4, 2024

Safe PCPO
Perth—Wellington 45% ± 9%▲ 20% ± 7%▼ 19% ± 7% 8% ± 5%▼ 5% ± 3% PCPO 2022 46.8% 338Canada Popular vote projection | April 4, 2024
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by profesional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.

50% 100% Perth—Wellington >99% <1% <1% Odds of winning | April 4, 2024
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).


Popular vote projection | Perth—Wellington

OLP 20% ± 7% PCPO 45% ± 9% NDP 19% ± 7% GPO 8% ± 5% NBPO 5% ± 3% Popular vote projection % | Perth—Wellington 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2022-05-01 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 Election 2022 OLP PCPO NDP GPO NBPO

Odds of winning | Perth—Wellington

OLP <1% PCPO >99% NDP <1% GPO <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2022-05-01 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 Election 2022 OLP PCPO NDP GPO

Recent electoral history | Perth—Wellington



2014 2018 2022 Proj. PCPO 39.0% 50.7% 46.8% 45% ± 9% NDP 18.9% 30.7% 22.1% 19% ± 7% OLP 33.1% 10.8% 16.1% 20% ± 7% GPO 4.9% 5.9% 6.3% 8% ± 5% NBPO 0.0% 0.0% 5.9% 5% ± 3% ONP 0.0% 0.0% 2.4% 2% ± 2%