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Ontario

Simcoe—Grey


MPP: Saunderson, Brian (PCPO)
Latest projection: February 20, 2025
Safe PCPO

Candidates | Simcoe—Grey


PC Party of Ontario Brian Saunderson
Liberal Party Ted Crysler
Ontario NDP Benten Tinkler
Green Party Allan Kuhn
New Blue Party David Ghobrial

Candidates listed here are on the Elections Ontario website.

Simcoe—Grey 56% ± 9% PCPO 24% ± 7%▼ OLP 10% ± 5% GPO 8% ± 4% NDP PCPO 2022 51.2% 338Canada Popular vote projection | February 20, 2025
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Simcoe—Grey >99% PCPO <1% OLP <1% GPO Odds of winning | February 20, 2025
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).


Popular vote projection | Simcoe—Grey

OLP 24% ± 7% PCPO 56% ± 9% NDP 8% ± 4% GPO 10% ± 5% Popular vote projection % | Simcoe—Grey 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2025-02-01 2025-02-15 2025-03-01 Election 2025 Campaign begins OLP PCPO NDP GPO February 20, 2025 2025-01-27 PCPO 51% OLP 24% GPO 11% NDP 10% 2025-01-27 2025-01-29 PCPO 51% OLP 24% GPO 11% NDP 10% 2025-01-29 2025-01-31 PCPO 54% OLP 23% GPO 10% NDP 10% 2025-01-31 2025-02-02 PCPO 54% OLP 23% GPO 10% NDP 10% 2025-02-02 2025-02-03 PCPO 54% OLP 23% GPO 10% NDP 10% 2025-02-03 2025-02-04 PCPO 54% OLP 24% GPO 10% NDP 9% 2025-02-04 2025-02-05 PCPO 54% OLP 24% GPO 10% NDP 9% 2025-02-05 2025-02-06 PCPO 55% OLP 23% GPO 10% NDP 9% 2025-02-06 2025-02-07 PCPO 55% OLP 23% GPO 10% NDP 9% 2025-02-07 2025-02-08 PCPO 54% OLP 24% GPO 10% NDP 9% 2025-02-08 2025-02-09 PCPO 55% OLP 23% GPO 10% NDP 9% 2025-02-09 2025-02-10 PCPO 55% OLP 23% GPO 10% NDP 9% 2025-02-10 2025-02-11 PCPO 55% OLP 24% GPO 10% NDP 9% 2025-02-11 2025-02-12 PCPO 55% OLP 24% GPO 10% NDP 8% 2025-02-12 2025-02-13 PCPO 55% OLP 24% GPO 10% NDP 8% 2025-02-13 2025-02-14 PCPO 55% OLP 25% GPO 10% NDP 8% 2025-02-14 2025-02-15 PCPO 56% OLP 24% GPO 10% NDP 8% 2025-02-15 2025-02-16 PCPO 56% OLP 24% GPO 10% NDP 8% 2025-02-16 2025-02-17 PCPO 55% OLP 25% GPO 10% NDP 8% 2025-02-17 2025-02-18 PCPO 55% OLP 25% GPO 10% NDP 8% 2025-02-18 2025-02-19 PCPO 56% OLP 25% GPO 10% NDP 8% 2025-02-19 2025-02-20 PCPO 56% OLP 24% GPO 10% NDP 8% 2025-02-20

Odds of winning | Simcoe—Grey

OLP <1% PCPO >99% NDP <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2025-02-01 2025-02-15 2025-03-01 Election 2025 Campaign begins OLP PCPO NDP February 20, 2025 2025-01-27 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-01-27 2025-01-29 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-01-29 2025-01-31 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-01-31 2025-02-02 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-02 2025-02-03 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-03 2025-02-04 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-04 2025-02-05 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-05 2025-02-06 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-06 2025-02-07 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-07 2025-02-08 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-08 2025-02-09 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-09 2025-02-10 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-10 2025-02-11 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-11 2025-02-12 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-12 2025-02-13 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-13 2025-02-14 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-14 2025-02-15 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-15 2025-02-16 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-16 2025-02-17 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-17 2025-02-18 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-18 2025-02-19 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-19 2025-02-20 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-20

Recent electoral history | Simcoe—Grey



2014 2018 2022 Proj. PCPO 47.4% 55.9% 51.2% 56% ± 9% OLP 30.4% 14.4% 22.1% 24% ± 7% NDP 14.3% 22.1% 11.0% 8% ± 4% GPO 7.9% 6.9% 9.0% 10% ± 5% NBPO 0.0% 0.0% 4.1% 2% ± 2%