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Ontario

Orléans


MPP: Blais, Stephen (OLP)

Latest projection: January 20, 2025
Likely OLP
Orléans 48% ± 9%▲ OLP 32% ± 8%▼ PCPO 12% ± 5% NDP 5% ± 3%▼ GPO OLP 2022 46.4% 338Canada Popular vote projection | January 20, 2025
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Orléans >99%▲ OLP <1%▼ PCPO <1% NDP Odds of winning | January 20, 2025
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).


Popular vote projection | Orléans

OLP 48% ± 9% PCPO 32% ± 8% NDP 12% ± 5% GPO 5% ± 3% Popular vote projection % | Orléans 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 2025-09-01 OLP PCPO NDP GPO January 20, 2025 2023-02-15 OLP 47% PCPO 32% NDP 13% GPO 5% 2023-02-15 2023-03-09 OLP 48% PCPO 32% NDP 12% GPO 5% 2023-03-09 2023-03-17 OLP 48% PCPO 32% NDP 12% GPO 5% 2023-03-17 2023-04-16 OLP 47% PCPO 32% NDP 13% GPO 5% 2023-04-16 2023-07-07 OLP 47% PCPO 29% NDP 14% GPO 7% 2023-07-07 2023-07-22 OLP 48% PCPO 29% NDP 14% GPO 7% 2023-07-22 2023-07-28 OLP 47% PCPO 30% NDP 14% GPO 6% 2023-07-28 2023-08-26 OLP 47% PCPO 30% NDP 14% GPO 6% 2023-08-26 2023-10-07 OLP 49% PCPO 28% NDP 14% GPO 6% 2023-10-07 2023-10-23 OLP 47% PCPO 30% NDP 14% GPO 6% 2023-10-23 2023-12-01 OLP 46% PCPO 32% NDP 14% GPO 6% 2023-12-01 2023-12-20 OLP 48% PCPO 30% NDP 13% GPO 6% 2023-12-20 2024-02-02 OLP 49% PCPO 30% NDP 13% GPO 6% 2024-02-02 2024-02-20 OLP 52% PCPO 28% NDP 13% GPO 6% 2024-02-20 2024-03-05 OLP 50% PCPO 30% NDP 12% GPO 6% 2024-03-05 2024-04-04 OLP 48% PCPO 31% NDP 13% GPO 6% 2024-04-04 2024-05-03 OLP 48% PCPO 32% NDP 12% GPO 6% 2024-05-03 2024-06-30 OLP 46% PCPO 33% NDP 13% GPO 6% 2024-06-30 2024-07-29 OLP 46% PCPO 34% NDP 12% GPO 6% 2024-07-29 2024-10-09 OLP 46% PCPO 33% NDP 12% GPO 6% 2024-10-09 2024-11-11 OLP 46% PCPO 34% NDP 12% GPO 6% 2024-11-11 2024-12-15 OLP 46% PCPO 34% NDP 12% GPO 6% 2024-12-15 2025-01-20 OLP 48% PCPO 32% NDP 12% GPO 5% 2025-01-20 ▼ Stiles NDP leader ▼ Crombie OLP leader

Odds of winning | Orléans

OLP >99% PCPO <1% NDP <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 2025-09-01 OLP PCPO NDP January 20, 2025 2023-02-15 OLP 99% PCPO 1% NDP <1% 2023-02-15 2023-03-09 OLP >99% PCPO <1% NDP <1% 2023-03-09 2023-03-17 OLP >99% PCPO <1% NDP <1% 2023-03-17 2023-04-16 OLP >99% PCPO <1% NDP <1% 2023-04-16 2023-07-07 OLP >99% PCPO <1% NDP <1% 2023-07-07 2023-07-22 OLP >99% PCPO <1% NDP <1% 2023-07-22 2023-07-28 OLP >99% PCPO <1% NDP <1% 2023-07-28 2023-08-26 OLP >99% PCPO <1% NDP <1% 2023-08-26 2023-10-07 OLP >99% NDP <1% PCPO <1% 2023-10-07 2023-10-23 OLP >99% PCPO <1% NDP <1% 2023-10-23 2023-12-01 OLP 99% PCPO 1% NDP <1% 2023-12-01 2023-12-20 OLP >99% PCPO <1% NDP <1% 2023-12-20 2024-02-02 OLP >99% PCPO <1% NDP <1% 2024-02-02 2024-02-20 OLP >99% NDP <1% PCPO <1% 2024-02-20 2024-03-05 OLP >99% PCPO <1% NDP <1% 2024-03-05 2024-04-04 OLP >99% PCPO <1% NDP <1% 2024-04-04 2024-05-03 OLP >99% PCPO <1% NDP <1% 2024-05-03 2024-06-30 OLP 99% PCPO 1% NDP <1% 2024-06-30 2024-07-29 OLP 98% PCPO 2% NDP <1% 2024-07-29 2024-10-09 OLP 99% PCPO 1% NDP <1% 2024-10-09 2024-11-11 OLP 99% PCPO 1% NDP <1% 2024-11-11 2024-12-15 OLP 98% PCPO 2% NDP <1% 2024-12-15 2025-01-20 OLP >99% PCPO <1% NDP <1% 2025-01-20 ▼ Stiles NDP leader ▼ Crombie OLP leader

Recent electoral history | Orléans



2014 2018 2022 Proj. OLP 53.3% 39.1% 46.4% 48% ± 9% PCPO 33.4% 35.2% 32.7% 32% ± 8% NDP 9.0% 21.9% 13.6% 12% ± 5% GPO 3.5% 2.5% 4.6% 5% ± 3% NBPO 0.0% 0.0% 1.5% 1% ± 1% ONP 0.0% 0.0% 0.9% 0% ± 1%