logo
Ontario

Orléans


MPP: Blais, Stephen (OLP)
Latest projection: February 20, 2025
Likely OLP

Candidates | Orléans


PC Party of Ontario Stéphan Plourde
Liberal Party Stephen Blais
Ontario NDP Matthew Sévigny
Green Party Michelle Petersen
New Blue Party Patricia Hooper
Libertarian Party Ken Lewis
Independent Arabella Vida
Independent Burthomley Douzable

Candidates listed here are on the Elections Ontario website.

Orléans 47% ± 9% OLP 37% ± 9% PCPO 10% ± 4% NDP 5% ± 3% GPO OLP 2022 46.4% 338Canada Popular vote projection | February 20, 2025
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Orléans 95%▲ OLP 5%▼ PCPO <1% NDP Odds of winning | February 20, 2025
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).


Popular vote projection | Orléans

OLP 47% ± 9% PCPO 37% ± 9% NDP 10% ± 4% GPO 5% ± 3% Popular vote projection % | Orléans 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2025-02-01 2025-02-15 2025-03-01 Election 2025 Campaign begins OLP PCPO NDP GPO February 20, 2025 2025-01-27 OLP 46% PCPO 35% NDP 12% GPO 6% 2025-01-27 2025-01-29 OLP 46% PCPO 35% NDP 12% GPO 6% 2025-01-29 2025-01-31 OLP 45% PCPO 37% NDP 12% GPO 5% 2025-01-31 2025-02-02 OLP 45% PCPO 37% NDP 12% GPO 5% 2025-02-02 2025-02-03 OLP 45% PCPO 37% NDP 12% GPO 5% 2025-02-03 2025-02-04 OLP 46% PCPO 37% NDP 11% GPO 5% 2025-02-04 2025-02-05 OLP 46% PCPO 37% NDP 11% GPO 5% 2025-02-05 2025-02-06 OLP 45% PCPO 38% NDP 11% GPO 5% 2025-02-06 2025-02-07 OLP 45% PCPO 38% NDP 11% GPO 5% 2025-02-07 2025-02-08 OLP 46% PCPO 37% NDP 11% GPO 5% 2025-02-08 2025-02-09 OLP 45% PCPO 38% NDP 11% GPO 5% 2025-02-09 2025-02-10 OLP 45% PCPO 38% NDP 11% GPO 5% 2025-02-10 2025-02-11 OLP 46% PCPO 38% NDP 10% GPO 5% 2025-02-11 2025-02-12 OLP 46% PCPO 38% NDP 10% GPO 5% 2025-02-12 2025-02-13 OLP 46% PCPO 38% NDP 10% GPO 5% 2025-02-13 2025-02-14 OLP 47% PCPO 38% NDP 10% GPO 5% 2025-02-14 2025-02-15 OLP 47% PCPO 38% NDP 9% GPO 5% 2025-02-15 2025-02-16 OLP 47% PCPO 38% NDP 9% GPO 5% 2025-02-16 2025-02-17 OLP 48% PCPO 36% NDP 10% GPO 5% 2025-02-17 2025-02-18 OLP 48% PCPO 37% NDP 10% GPO 5% 2025-02-18 2025-02-19 OLP 47% PCPO 37% NDP 10% GPO 5% 2025-02-19 2025-02-20 OLP 47% PCPO 37% NDP 10% GPO 5% 2025-02-20

Odds of winning | Orléans

OLP 95% PCPO 5% NDP <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2025-02-01 2025-02-15 2025-03-01 Election 2025 Campaign begins OLP PCPO NDP February 20, 2025 2025-01-27 OLP 97% PCPO 3% NDP <1% 2025-01-27 2025-01-29 OLP 97% PCPO 3% NDP <1% 2025-01-29 2025-01-31 OLP 89% PCPO 11% NDP <1% 2025-01-31 2025-02-02 OLP 88% PCPO 12% NDP <1% 2025-02-02 2025-02-03 OLP 91% PCPO 9% NDP <1% 2025-02-03 2025-02-04 OLP 92% PCPO 8% NDP <1% 2025-02-04 2025-02-05 OLP 92% PCPO 8% NDP <1% 2025-02-05 2025-02-06 OLP 88% PCPO 12% NDP <1% 2025-02-06 2025-02-07 OLP 89% PCPO 11% NDP <1% 2025-02-07 2025-02-08 OLP 91% PCPO 9% NDP <1% 2025-02-08 2025-02-09 OLP 87% PCPO 13% NDP <1% 2025-02-09 2025-02-10 OLP 89% PCPO 11% NDP <1% 2025-02-10 2025-02-11 OLP 91% PCPO 9% NDP <1% 2025-02-11 2025-02-12 OLP 92% PCPO 8% NDP <1% 2025-02-12 2025-02-13 OLP 93% PCPO 7% NDP <1% 2025-02-13 2025-02-14 OLP 94% PCPO 6% NDP <1% 2025-02-14 2025-02-15 OLP 94% PCPO 6% NDP <1% 2025-02-15 2025-02-16 OLP 94% PCPO 6% NDP <1% 2025-02-16 2025-02-17 OLP 97% PCPO 3% NDP <1% 2025-02-17 2025-02-18 OLP 96% PCPO 4% NDP <1% 2025-02-18 2025-02-19 OLP 94% PCPO 6% NDP <1% 2025-02-19 2025-02-20 OLP 95% PCPO 5% NDP <1% 2025-02-20

Recent electoral history | Orléans



2014 2018 2022 Proj. OLP 53.3% 39.1% 46.4% 47% ± 9% PCPO 33.4% 35.2% 32.7% 37% ± 9% NDP 9.0% 21.9% 13.6% 10% ± 4% GPO 3.5% 2.5% 4.6% 5% ± 3% NBPO 0.0% 0.0% 1.5% 1% ± 1%