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Ontario

Beaches—East York


MPP: Mcmahon, Mary-Margaret (OLP)

Latest projection: May 3, 2024
Likely OLP
Beaches—East York 39% ± 9% OLP 29% ± 8%▼ NDP 18% ± 6% PCPO 11% ± 6% GPO OLP 2022 35.4% 338Canada Popular vote projection | May 3, 2024
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by profesional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Beaches—East York 96% OLP 4% NDP <1% PCPO Odds of winning | May 3, 2024
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).


Popular vote projection | Beaches—East York

OLP 39% ± 9% PCPO 18% ± 6% NDP 29% ± 8% GPO 11% ± 6% Popular vote projection % | Beaches—East York 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2022-05-01 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 Election 2022 OLP PCPO NDP GPO

Odds of winning | Beaches—East York

OLP 96% PCPO <1% NDP 4% GPO <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2022-05-01 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 Election 2022 OLP PCPO NDP GPO

Recent electoral history | Beaches—East York



2014 2018 2022 Proj. OLP 40.1% 27.0% 35.4% 39% ± 9% NDP 39.0% 48.2% 33.2% 29% ± 8% PCPO 13.9% 18.4% 18.5% 18% ± 6% GPO 5.4% 4.3% 10.2% 11% ± 6% NBPO 0.0% 0.0% 1.1% 1% ± 1% ONP 0.0% 0.0% 0.8% 1% ± 1%