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Ontario

Beaches—East York


MPP: Mcmahon, Mary-Margaret (OLP)
Latest projection: February 20, 2025
Likely OLP

Candidates | Beaches—East York


PC Party of Ontario Anna Michaelidis
Liberal Party Mary-Margaret Mcmahon
Ontario NDP Kate Dupuis
Green Party Jack Pennings
New Blue Party Thomas Gregory
Ontario Party Paul Stark
Canadians' Choice Bahman Yazdanfar
Independent Dragan Cimesa

Candidates listed here are on the Elections Ontario website.

Beaches—East York 40% ± 9% OLP 25% ± 7% PCPO 23% ± 7% NDP 11% ± 5% GPO OLP 2022 35.4% 338Canada Popular vote projection | February 20, 2025
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Beaches—East York >99% OLP <1% PCPO <1% NDP Odds of winning | February 20, 2025
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).


Popular vote projection | Beaches—East York

OLP 40% ± 9% PCPO 25% ± 7% NDP 23% ± 7% GPO 11% ± 5% Popular vote projection % | Beaches—East York 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2025-02-01 2025-02-15 2025-03-01 Election 2025 Campaign begins OLP PCPO NDP GPO February 20, 2025 2025-01-27 OLP 37% NDP 29% PCPO 21% GPO 11% 2025-01-27 2025-01-29 OLP 38% NDP 28% PCPO 21% GPO 11% 2025-01-29 2025-01-31 OLP 37% NDP 28% PCPO 24% GPO 10% 2025-01-31 2025-02-02 OLP 37% NDP 28% PCPO 24% GPO 10% 2025-02-02 2025-02-03 OLP 37% NDP 28% PCPO 23% GPO 10% 2025-02-03 2025-02-04 OLP 38% NDP 26% PCPO 24% GPO 10% 2025-02-04 2025-02-05 OLP 38% NDP 26% PCPO 24% GPO 10% 2025-02-05 2025-02-06 OLP 38% NDP 26% PCPO 25% GPO 10% 2025-02-06 2025-02-07 OLP 38% NDP 26% PCPO 24% GPO 10% 2025-02-07 2025-02-08 OLP 38% NDP 26% PCPO 24% GPO 10% 2025-02-08 2025-02-09 OLP 37% NDP 27% PCPO 24% GPO 11% 2025-02-09 2025-02-10 OLP 38% NDP 26% PCPO 24% GPO 11% 2025-02-10 2025-02-11 OLP 39% NDP 25% PCPO 25% GPO 11% 2025-02-11 2025-02-12 OLP 39% PCPO 25% NDP 24% GPO 11% 2025-02-12 2025-02-13 OLP 39% PCPO 25% NDP 24% GPO 11% 2025-02-13 2025-02-14 OLP 40% PCPO 25% NDP 23% GPO 11% 2025-02-14 2025-02-15 OLP 40% PCPO 25% NDP 23% GPO 11% 2025-02-15 2025-02-16 OLP 40% PCPO 25% NDP 23% GPO 11% 2025-02-16 2025-02-17 OLP 40% PCPO 24% NDP 24% GPO 11% 2025-02-17 2025-02-18 OLP 40% PCPO 24% NDP 24% GPO 11% 2025-02-18 2025-02-19 OLP 40% PCPO 25% NDP 23% GPO 11% 2025-02-19 2025-02-20 OLP 40% PCPO 25% NDP 23% GPO 11% 2025-02-20

Odds of winning | Beaches—East York

OLP >99% PCPO <1% NDP <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2025-02-01 2025-02-15 2025-03-01 Election 2025 Campaign begins OLP PCPO NDP February 20, 2025 2025-01-27 OLP 95% NDP 5% PCPO <1% 2025-01-27 2025-01-29 OLP 97% NDP 3% PCPO <1% 2025-01-29 2025-01-31 OLP 95% NDP 4% PCPO <1% 2025-01-31 2025-02-02 OLP 95% NDP 4% PCPO <1% 2025-02-02 2025-02-03 OLP 96% NDP 4% PCPO <1% 2025-02-03 2025-02-04 OLP 99% NDP 1% PCPO <1% 2025-02-04 2025-02-05 OLP 99% NDP 1% PCPO <1% 2025-02-05 2025-02-06 OLP 99% NDP 1% PCPO <1% 2025-02-06 2025-02-07 OLP 99% NDP 1% PCPO <1% 2025-02-07 2025-02-08 OLP 99% NDP 1% PCPO <1% 2025-02-08 2025-02-09 OLP 97% NDP 2% PCPO <1% 2025-02-09 2025-02-10 OLP 98% NDP 1% PCPO <1% 2025-02-10 2025-02-11 OLP 99% NDP <1% PCPO <1% 2025-02-11 2025-02-12 OLP >99% NDP <1% PCPO <1% 2025-02-12 2025-02-13 OLP >99% PCPO <1% NDP <1% 2025-02-13 2025-02-14 OLP >99% PCPO <1% NDP <1% 2025-02-14 2025-02-15 OLP >99% PCPO <1% NDP <1% 2025-02-15 2025-02-16 OLP >99% PCPO <1% NDP <1% 2025-02-16 2025-02-17 OLP >99% PCPO <1% NDP <1% 2025-02-17 2025-02-18 OLP >99% NDP <1% PCPO <1% 2025-02-18 2025-02-19 OLP >99% PCPO <1% NDP <1% 2025-02-19 2025-02-20 OLP >99% PCPO <1% NDP <1% 2025-02-20

Recent electoral history | Beaches—East York



2014 2018 2022 Proj. OLP 40.1% 27.0% 35.4% 40% ± 9% NDP 39.0% 48.2% 33.2% 23% ± 7% PCPO 13.9% 18.4% 18.5% 25% ± 7% GPO 5.4% 4.3% 10.2% 11% ± 5% NBPO 0.0% 0.0% 1.1% 0% ± 1% ONP 0.0% 0.0% 0.8% 0% ± 1%