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Ontario

Beaches—East York


MPP: Mcmahon, Mary-Margaret (OLP)

Latest projection: November 12, 2024
Likely OLP
Beaches—East York 38% ± 9% OLP 29% ± 8% NDP 19% ± 6% PCPO 11% ± 6%▼ GPO OLP 2022 35.4% 338Canada Popular vote projection | November 12, 2024
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Beaches—East York 95% OLP 5% NDP <1% PCPO Odds of winning | November 12, 2024
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).


Popular vote projection | Beaches—East York

OLP 38% ± 9% PCPO 19% ± 6% NDP 29% ± 8% GPO 11% ± 6% Popular vote projection % | Beaches—East York 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2022-05-01 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 2025-09-01 Election 2022 OLP PCPO NDP GPO November 12, 2024 2022-04-30 OLP 39% NDP 34% PCPO 17% GPO 5% 2022-04-30 2022-05-03 OLP 37% NDP 36% PCPO 17% GPO 5% 2022-05-03 2022-05-04 OLP 36% NDP 36% PCPO 17% GPO 5% 2022-05-04 2022-05-05 OLP 37% NDP 36% PCPO 17% GPO 5% 2022-05-05 2022-05-06 OLP 36% NDP 36% PCPO 17% GPO 5% 2022-05-06 2022-05-07 OLP 36% NDP 36% PCPO 17% GPO 5% 2022-05-07 2022-05-08 OLP 36% NDP 36% PCPO 17% GPO 5% 2022-05-08 2022-05-09 OLP 37% NDP 35% PCPO 17% GPO 5% 2022-05-09 2022-05-10 OLP 37% NDP 35% PCPO 17% GPO 5% 2022-05-10 2022-05-11 OLP 36% NDP 36% PCPO 18% GPO 5% 2022-05-11 2022-05-12 OLP 36% NDP 36% PCPO 18% GPO 5% 2022-05-12 2022-05-13 OLP 36% NDP 35% PCPO 18% GPO 5% 2022-05-13 2022-05-14 OLP 36% NDP 35% PCPO 18% GPO 5% 2022-05-14 2022-05-15 OLP 36% NDP 35% PCPO 18% GPO 5% 2022-05-15 2022-05-16 OLP 36% NDP 35% PCPO 17% GPO 5% 2022-05-16 2022-05-17 OLP 38% NDP 33% PCPO 18% GPO 5% 2022-05-17 2022-05-18 OLP 38% NDP 33% PCPO 18% GPO 5% 2022-05-18 2022-05-19 OLP 37% NDP 32% PCPO 17% GPO 7% 2022-05-19 2022-05-20 OLP 36% NDP 33% PCPO 17% GPO 7% 2022-05-20 2022-05-21 OLP 36% NDP 33% PCPO 17% GPO 7% 2022-05-21 2022-05-22 OLP 36% NDP 33% PCPO 17% GPO 7% 2022-05-22 2022-05-23 OLP 36% NDP 33% PCPO 17% GPO 7% 2022-05-23 2022-05-24 OLP 36% NDP 33% PCPO 17% GPO 7% 2022-05-24 2022-05-25 OLP 36% NDP 32% PCPO 17% GPO 7% 2022-05-25 2022-05-26 OLP 36% NDP 32% PCPO 17% GPO 7% 2022-05-26 2022-05-27 OLP 35% NDP 32% PCPO 18% GPO 7% 2022-05-27 2022-05-28 OLP 35% NDP 32% PCPO 19% GPO 7% 2022-05-28 2022-05-29 OLP 35% NDP 32% PCPO 19% GPO 7% 2022-05-29 2022-05-30 OLP 35% NDP 32% PCPO 19% GPO 7% 2022-05-30 2022-05-31 OLP 35% NDP 32% PCPO 19% GPO 7% 2022-05-31 2022-06-01 OLP 35% NDP 32% PCPO 19% GPO 7% 2022-06-01 2022-06-03 OLP 35% NDP 33% PCPO 18% GPO 10% 2022-06-03 2022-12-30 OLP 35% NDP 34% PCPO 18% GPO 10% 2022-12-30 2023-02-15 OLP 36% NDP 31% PCPO 18% GPO 12% 2023-02-15 2023-03-09 OLP 37% NDP 31% PCPO 18% GPO 12% 2023-03-09 2023-03-17 OLP 37% NDP 31% PCPO 18% GPO 11% 2023-03-17 2023-04-16 OLP 36% NDP 32% PCPO 18% GPO 11% 2023-04-16 2023-07-07 OLP 35% NDP 33% PCPO 16% GPO 13% 2023-07-07 2023-07-22 OLP 36% NDP 33% PCPO 16% GPO 13% 2023-07-22 2023-07-28 OLP 36% NDP 33% PCPO 16% GPO 12% 2023-07-28 2023-08-26 OLP 36% NDP 33% PCPO 16% GPO 12% 2023-08-26 2023-10-07 OLP 37% NDP 33% PCPO 15% GPO 12% 2023-10-07 2023-10-23 OLP 36% NDP 33% PCPO 16% GPO 12% 2023-10-23 2023-12-01 OLP 35% NDP 33% PCPO 18% GPO 12% 2023-12-01 2023-12-20 OLP 37% NDP 32% PCPO 17% GPO 11% 2023-12-20 2024-02-02 OLP 38% NDP 32% PCPO 17% GPO 11% 2024-02-02 2024-02-20 OLP 42% NDP 30% PCPO 15% GPO 11% 2024-02-20 2024-03-05 OLP 41% NDP 28% PCPO 17% GPO 11% 2024-03-05 2024-04-04 OLP 39% NDP 30% PCPO 18% GPO 11% 2024-04-04 2024-05-03 OLP 39% NDP 29% PCPO 18% GPO 11% 2024-05-03 2024-06-30 OLP 38% NDP 30% PCPO 19% GPO 12% 2024-06-30 2024-07-29 OLP 37% NDP 29% PCPO 20% GPO 12% 2024-07-29 2024-10-09 OLP 38% NDP 29% PCPO 19% GPO 12% 2024-10-09 2024-11-11 OLP 38% NDP 29% PCPO 19% GPO 11% 2024-11-11

Odds of winning | Beaches—East York

OLP 95% PCPO <1% NDP 5% GPO <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2022-05-01 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 2025-09-01 Election 2022 OLP PCPO NDP GPO November 12, 2024 2022-04-30 OLP 77% NDP 23% GPO <1% PCPO <1% 2022-04-30 2022-05-03 OLP 60% NDP 40% GPO <1% PCPO <1% 2022-05-03 2022-05-04 OLP 54% NDP 46% GPO <1% PCPO <1% 2022-05-04 2022-05-05 OLP 57% NDP 43% GPO <1% PCPO <1% 2022-05-05 2022-05-06 OLP 51% NDP 49% GPO <1% PCPO <1% 2022-05-06 2022-05-07 OLP 52% NDP 48% GPO <1% PCPO <1% 2022-05-07 2022-05-08 OLP 52% NDP 48% GPO <1% PCPO <1% 2022-05-08 2022-05-09 OLP 61% NDP 39% GPO <1% PCPO <1% 2022-05-09 2022-05-10 OLP 64% NDP 36% GPO <1% PCPO <1% 2022-05-10 2022-05-11 OLP 54% NDP 46% GPO <1% PCPO <1% 2022-05-11 2022-05-12 OLP 56% NDP 44% GPO <1% PCPO <1% 2022-05-12 2022-05-13 OLP 57% NDP 43% GPO <1% PCPO <1% 2022-05-13 2022-05-14 OLP 58% NDP 42% GPO <1% PCPO <1% 2022-05-14 2022-05-15 OLP 53% NDP 47% GPO <1% PCPO <1% 2022-05-15 2022-05-16 OLP 58% NDP 42% GPO <1% PCPO <1% 2022-05-16 2022-05-17 OLP 80% NDP 20% GPO <1% PCPO <1% 2022-05-17 2022-05-18 OLP 82% NDP 18% GPO <1% PCPO <1% 2022-05-18 2022-05-19 OLP 80% NDP 20% GPO <1% PCPO <1% 2022-05-19 2022-05-20 OLP 74% NDP 26% GPO <1% PCPO <1% 2022-05-20 2022-05-21 OLP 73% NDP 27% GPO <1% PCPO <1% 2022-05-21 2022-05-22 OLP 74% NDP 26% GPO <1% PCPO <1% 2022-05-22 2022-05-23 OLP 71% NDP 29% GPO <1% PCPO <1% 2022-05-23 2022-05-24 OLP 72% NDP 28% GPO <1% PCPO <1% 2022-05-24 2022-05-25 OLP 73% NDP 27% GPO <1% PCPO <1% 2022-05-25 2022-05-26 OLP 73% NDP 27% GPO <1% PCPO <1% 2022-05-26 2022-05-27 OLP 72% NDP 28% GPO <1% PCPO <1% 2022-05-27 2022-05-28 OLP 70% NDP 30% GPO <1% PCPO <1% 2022-05-28 2022-05-29 OLP 71% NDP 29% GPO <1% PCPO <1% 2022-05-29 2022-05-30 OLP 71% NDP 29% GPO <1% PCPO <1% 2022-05-30 2022-05-31 OLP 70% NDP 30% GPO <1% PCPO <1% 2022-05-31 2022-06-01 OLP 72% NDP 28% PCPO <1% GPO <1% 2022-06-01 2022-06-03 OLP 72% NDP 28% GPO <1% PCPO <1% 2022-06-03 2022-12-30 OLP 61% NDP 39% GPO <1% PCPO <1% 2022-12-30 2023-02-15 OLP 83% NDP 17% GPO <1% PCPO <1% 2023-02-15 2023-03-09 OLP 88% NDP 12% GPO <1% PCPO <1% 2023-03-09 2023-03-17 OLP 88% NDP 12% GPO <1% PCPO <1% 2023-03-17 2023-04-16 OLP 79% NDP 21% GPO <1% PCPO <1% 2023-04-16 2023-07-07 OLP 66% NDP 34% GPO <1% PCPO <1% 2023-07-07 2023-07-22 OLP 68% NDP 32% GPO <1% PCPO <1% 2023-07-22 2023-07-28 OLP 71% NDP 29% GPO <1% PCPO <1% 2023-07-28 2023-08-26 OLP 72% NDP 28% GPO <1% PCPO <1% 2023-08-26 2023-10-07 OLP 74% NDP 26% GPO <1% PCPO <1% 2023-10-07 2023-10-23 OLP 66% NDP 34% GPO <1% PCPO <1% 2023-10-23 2023-12-01 OLP 63% NDP 37% GPO <1% PCPO <1% 2023-12-01 2023-12-20 OLP 82% NDP 18% GPO <1% PCPO <1% 2023-12-20 2024-02-02 OLP 88% NDP 12% GPO <1% PCPO <1% 2024-02-02 2024-02-20 OLP 99% NDP 1% GPO <1% PCPO <1% 2024-02-20 2024-03-05 OLP 99% NDP 1% GPO <1% PCPO <1% 2024-03-05 2024-04-04 OLP 96% NDP 4% GPO <1% PCPO <1% 2024-04-04 2024-05-03 OLP 96% NDP 4% GPO <1% PCPO <1% 2024-05-03 2024-06-30 OLP 93% NDP 7% GPO <1% PCPO <1% 2024-06-30 2024-07-29 OLP 96% NDP 4% GPO <1% PCPO <1% 2024-07-29 2024-10-09 OLP 95% NDP 5% PCPO <1% GPO <1% 2024-10-09 2024-11-11 OLP 95% NDP 5% GPO <1% PCPO <1% 2024-11-11

Recent electoral history | Beaches—East York



2014 2018 2022 Proj. OLP 40.1% 27.0% 35.4% 38% ± 9% NDP 39.0% 48.2% 33.2% 29% ± 8% PCPO 13.9% 18.4% 18.5% 19% ± 6% GPO 5.4% 4.3% 10.2% 11% ± 6% NBPO 0.0% 0.0% 1.1% 1% ± 1% ONP 0.0% 0.0% 0.8% 1% ± 1%