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Ontario

Northern Ontario, 13 districts


Latest update: July 29, 2024
Northern Ontario 42% ± 7%▲ PCPO 27% ± 6%▼ NDP 18% ± 4% OLP 9% ± 3% GPO 338Canada Popular vote projection | July 29, 2024
This projection is calculated using a weighted average of polls by the 338Canada model to estimate current party support. This is not a poll, but the result of an aggregation of polls and modelization of various data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
Northern Ontario, 13 districts 10▲ [7-10] PCPO 2▼ [2-5] NDP 1 [0-2] OLP 0 [0-1] GPO 338Canada seat projection | July 29, 2024
The seat projections are a forecast of the most likely results if a general election were held today. The brackets indicate the current ranges from worst to best possible outcomes. The distributions follow Gaussian-like curves, so the extremes are not as likely as the values near the mean. Does it work? See 338Canada's full record here.

Popular vote projection | Northern Ontario

OLP 18% ± 4% PCPO 42% ± 7% NDP 27% ± 6% GPO 9% ± 3% Popular vote projection % | Northern Ontario 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2022-05-01 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 Election 2022 OLP PCPO NDP GPO July 29, 2024 2022-04-30 PCPO 33% NDP 30% OLP 24% GPO 7% 2022-04-30 2022-05-03 NDP 32% PCPO 31% OLP 24% GPO 6% 2022-05-03 2022-05-04 NDP 32% PCPO 32% OLP 24% GPO 6% 2022-05-04 2022-05-05 NDP 32% PCPO 32% OLP 24% GPO 6% 2022-05-05 2022-05-06 NDP 32% PCPO 32% OLP 24% GPO 6% 2022-05-06 2022-05-07 NDP 32% PCPO 32% OLP 24% GPO 6% 2022-05-07 2022-05-08 NDP 32% PCPO 31% OLP 24% GPO 6% 2022-05-08 2022-05-09 NDP 32% PCPO 31% OLP 24% GPO 6% 2022-05-09 2022-05-10 NDP 32% PCPO 31% OLP 24% GPO 6% 2022-05-10 2022-05-11 PCPO 32% NDP 32% OLP 23% GPO 6% 2022-05-11 2022-05-12 PCPO 32% NDP 32% OLP 23% GPO 6% 2022-05-12 2022-05-13 PCPO 32% NDP 31% OLP 23% GPO 6% 2022-05-13 2022-05-14 NDP 33% PCPO 33% OLP 21% GPO 7% 2022-05-14 2022-05-15 NDP 34% PCPO 33% OLP 21% GPO 7% 2022-05-15 2022-05-16 NDP 34% PCPO 33% OLP 21% GPO 7% 2022-05-16 2022-05-17 PCPO 32% NDP 32% OLP 22% GPO 8% 2022-05-17 2022-05-18 NDP 35% PCPO 32% OLP 19% GPO 8% 2022-05-18 2022-05-19 NDP 34% PCPO 32% OLP 19% GPO 9% 2022-05-19 2022-05-20 NDP 35% PCPO 31% OLP 18% GPO 10% 2022-05-20 2022-05-21 NDP 34% PCPO 31% OLP 18% GPO 11% 2022-05-21 2022-05-22 NDP 34% PCPO 31% OLP 18% GPO 11% 2022-05-22 2022-05-23 NDP 34% PCPO 31% OLP 18% GPO 11% 2022-05-23 2022-05-24 NDP 34% PCPO 31% OLP 18% GPO 11% 2022-05-24 2022-05-25 NDP 33% PCPO 31% OLP 17% GPO 11% 2022-05-25 2022-05-26 NDP 33% PCPO 31% OLP 17% GPO 12% 2022-05-26 2022-05-27 NDP 34% PCPO 31% OLP 17% GPO 11% 2022-05-27 2022-05-28 NDP 34% PCPO 32% OLP 17% GPO 11% 2022-05-28 2022-05-29 NDP 34% PCPO 32% OLP 17% GPO 11% 2022-05-29 2022-05-30 NDP 34% PCPO 32% OLP 17% GPO 11% 2022-05-30 2022-05-31 NDP 34% PCPO 32% OLP 16% GPO 11% 2022-05-31 2022-06-01 NDP 34% PCPO 33% OLP 16% GPO 10% 2022-06-01 2022-06-03 PCPO 40% NDP 35% OLP 12% GPO 8% 2022-06-03 2022-12-30 PCPO 40% NDP 35% OLP 12% GPO 8% 2022-12-30 2023-02-15 PCPO 40% NDP 33% OLP 12% GPO 9% 2023-02-15 2023-03-09 PCPO 40% NDP 33% OLP 13% GPO 8% 2023-03-09 2023-03-17 PCPO 40% NDP 33% OLP 13% GPO 8% 2023-03-17 2023-04-16 PCPO 40% NDP 34% OLP 13% GPO 8% 2023-04-16 2023-07-07 NDP 36% PCPO 36% OLP 13% GPO 10% 2023-07-07 2023-07-22 PCPO 36% NDP 36% OLP 13% GPO 9% 2023-07-22 2023-07-28 PCPO 37% NDP 35% OLP 13% GPO 9% 2023-07-28 2023-08-26 PCPO 37% NDP 35% OLP 13% GPO 9% 2023-08-26 2023-10-07 NDP 36% PCPO 35% OLP 14% GPO 9% 2023-10-07 2023-10-23 PCPO 37% NDP 36% OLP 13% GPO 9% 2023-10-23 2023-12-01 PCPO 39% NDP 35% OLP 13% GPO 9% 2023-12-01 2023-12-20 PCPO 39% NDP 35% OLP 14% GPO 9% 2023-12-20 2024-02-02 PCPO 39% NDP 34% OLP 14% GPO 8% 2024-02-02 2024-02-20 PCPO 34% NDP 28% OLP 25% GPO 9% 2024-02-20 2024-03-05 PCPO 37% NDP 26% OLP 24% GPO 9% 2024-03-05 2024-04-04 PCPO 37% NDP 27% OLP 22% GPO 9% 2024-04-04 2024-05-03 PCPO 39% NDP 28% OLP 19% GPO 9% 2024-05-03 2024-06-30 PCPO 40% NDP 28% OLP 18% GPO 9% 2024-06-30 2024-07-29 PCPO 42% NDP 27% OLP 18% GPO 9% 2024-07-29

Seat projection | Northern Ontario

OLP 1 [0-2] PCPO 10 [7-10] NDP 2 [2-5] GPO 0 [0-1] Seat projection | Northern Ontario 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 2022-05-01 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 Election 2022 OLP PCPO NDP GPO July 29, 2024 2022-04-30 NDP 6 PCPO 4 OLP 3 GPO 0 2022-04-30 2022-05-03 NDP 6 PCPO 4 OLP 3 GPO 0 2022-05-03 2022-05-04 NDP 6 PCPO 4 OLP 3 GPO 0 2022-05-04 2022-05-05 NDP 6 PCPO 4 OLP 3 GPO 0 2022-05-05 2022-05-06 NDP 6 PCPO 4 OLP 3 GPO 0 2022-05-06 2022-05-07 NDP 6 PCPO 4 OLP 3 GPO 0 2022-05-07 2022-05-08 NDP 6 PCPO 4 OLP 3 GPO 0 2022-05-08 2022-05-09 NDP 6 PCPO 4 OLP 3 GPO 0 2022-05-09 2022-05-10 NDP 6 PCPO 4 OLP 3 GPO 0 2022-05-10 2022-05-11 NDP 6 PCPO 4 OLP 3 GPO 0 2022-05-11 2022-05-12 NDP 6 PCPO 4 OLP 3 GPO 0 2022-05-12 2022-05-13 NDP 6 PCPO 4 OLP 3 GPO 0 2022-05-13 2022-05-14 NDP 6 PCPO 4 OLP 3 GPO 0 2022-05-14 2022-05-15 NDP 7 PCPO 4 OLP 2 GPO 0 2022-05-15 2022-05-16 NDP 6 PCPO 4 OLP 3 GPO 0 2022-05-16 2022-05-17 NDP 7 PCPO 4 OLP 2 GPO 0 2022-05-17 2022-05-18 NDP 7 PCPO 4 OLP 2 GPO 0 2022-05-18 2022-05-19 NDP 7 PCPO 4 OLP 2 GPO 0 2022-05-19 2022-05-20 NDP 7 PCPO 4 OLP 2 GPO 0 2022-05-20 2022-05-21 NDP 7 PCPO 4 OLP 2 GPO 0 2022-05-21 2022-05-22 NDP 7 PCPO 4 OLP 2 GPO 0 2022-05-22 2022-05-23 NDP 7 PCPO 4 OLP 2 GPO 0 2022-05-23 2022-05-24 NDP 7 PCPO 4 OLP 2 GPO 0 2022-05-24 2022-05-25 NDP 7 PCPO 3 OLP 2 GPO 1 2022-05-25 2022-05-26 NDP 7 PCPO 3 OLP 2 GPO 1 2022-05-26 2022-05-27 NDP 7 PCPO 4 OLP 2 GPO 0 2022-05-27 2022-05-28 NDP 7 PCPO 4 OLP 2 GPO 0 2022-05-28 2022-05-29 NDP 7 PCPO 4 OLP 2 GPO 0 2022-05-29 2022-05-30 NDP 7 PCPO 4 OLP 2 GPO 0 2022-05-30 2022-05-31 NDP 7 PCPO 4 OLP 2 GPO 0 2022-05-31 2022-06-01 NDP 7 PCPO 4 OLP 2 GPO 0 2022-06-01 2022-06-03 NDP 7 PCPO 6 OLP 0 GPO 0 2022-06-03 2022-12-30 NDP 7 PCPO 6 OLP 0 GPO 0 2022-12-30 2023-02-15 NDP 7 PCPO 5 GPO 1 OLP 0 2023-02-15 2023-03-09 NDP 7 PCPO 6 OLP 0 GPO 0 2023-03-09 2023-03-17 NDP 7 PCPO 6 OLP 0 GPO 0 2023-03-17 2023-04-16 NDP 7 PCPO 6 OLP 0 GPO 0 2023-04-16 2023-07-07 NDP 8 PCPO 4 GPO 1 OLP 0 2023-07-07 2023-07-22 NDP 8 PCPO 4 GPO 1 OLP 0 2023-07-22 2023-07-28 NDP 7 PCPO 6 OLP 0 GPO 0 2023-07-28 2023-08-26 NDP 7 PCPO 6 OLP 0 GPO 0 2023-08-26 2023-10-07 NDP 8 PCPO 4 GPO 1 OLP 0 2023-10-07 2023-10-23 NDP 7 PCPO 6 OLP 0 GPO 0 2023-10-23 2023-12-01 NDP 7 PCPO 6 OLP 0 GPO 0 2023-12-01 2023-12-20 NDP 7 PCPO 6 OLP 0 GPO 0 2023-12-20 2024-02-02 NDP 7 PCPO 6 OLP 0 GPO 0 2024-02-02 2024-02-20 NDP 5 PCPO 4 OLP 3 GPO 1 2024-02-20 2024-03-05 PCPO 6 NDP 4 OLP 3 GPO 0 2024-03-05 2024-04-04 NDP 6 PCPO 5 OLP 2 GPO 0 2024-04-04 2024-05-03 PCPO 7 NDP 5 OLP 1 GPO 0 2024-05-03 2024-06-30 PCPO 7 NDP 5 OLP 1 GPO 0 2024-06-30 2024-07-29 PCPO 10 NDP 2 OLP 1 GPO 0 2024-07-29

Seat projection | Northern Ontario


Latest update: July 29, 2024
Safe Likely Leaning Toss up Projected ahead Last election (2022)
4 0 3 3 10 6
0 1 1 0 2 7
0 0 1 0 1 0
0 0 0 0 0 0

List of electoral districts | Northern Ontario


Latest update: July 29, 2024
Electoral district Current party Latest projection
002 Algoma—Manitoulin Toss up PCPO/NDP
044 Kenora—Rainy River Safe PCPO
045 Kiiwetinoong Leaning NDP
067 Mushkegowuk—James Bay Toss up PCPO/NDP
073 Nickel Belt Likely NDP
074 Nipissing Safe PCPO
086 Parry Sound—Muskoka Leaning PCPO
093 Sault Ste. Marie Safe PCPO
105 Sudbury Toss up OLP/PCPO/NDP
107 Thunder Bay—Atikokan Leaning PCPO
108 Thunder Bay—Superior North Leaning OLP
109 Timiskaming—Cochrane Leaning PCPO
110 Timmins Safe PCPO