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Ontario

Northern Ontario, 13 districts


Latest update: August 31, 2025
Northern Ontario 50% ± 7%▲ PCPO 27% ± 6%▼ NDP 12% ± 3%▼ OLP 7% ± 2%▼ GPO 338Canada Popular vote projection | August 31, 2025
This projection is calculated using a weighted average of polls by the 338Canada model to estimate current party support. This is not a poll, but the result of an aggregation of polls and modelization of various data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
Northern Ontario, 13 districts 11▲ [9-12] PCPO 2▼ [1-4] NDP 0 [0-0] OLP 0 [0-0] GPO 338Canada seat projection | August 31, 2025
The seat projections are a forecast of the most likely results if a general election were held today. The brackets indicate the current ranges from worst to best possible outcomes. The distributions follow Gaussian-like curves, so the extremes are not as likely as the values near the mean. Does it work? See 338Canada's full record here.

Popular vote projection | Northern Ontario

OLP 12% ± 3% PCPO 50% ± 7% NDP 27% ± 6% GPO 7% ± 2% Popular vote projection % | Northern Ontario 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2025-02-01 2025-03-01 2025-04-01 2025-05-01 2025-06-01 2025-07-01 2025-08-01 2025-09-01 2025-10-01 2025-11-01 2025-12-01 Election 2025 OLP PCPO NDP GPO August 31, 2025 2025-01-27 PCPO 42% NDP 30% OLP 16% GPO 8% 2025-01-27 2025-01-29 PCPO 42% NDP 29% OLP 16% GPO 8% 2025-01-29 2025-01-31 PCPO 45% NDP 29% OLP 16% GPO 8% 2025-01-31 2025-02-02 PCPO 45% NDP 29% OLP 15% GPO 8% 2025-02-02 2025-02-03 PCPO 44% NDP 29% OLP 16% GPO 8% 2025-02-03 2025-02-04 PCPO 45% NDP 28% OLP 16% GPO 8% 2025-02-04 2025-02-05 PCPO 45% NDP 28% OLP 16% GPO 8% 2025-02-05 2025-02-06 PCPO 46% NDP 28% OLP 16% GPO 8% 2025-02-06 2025-02-07 PCPO 46% NDP 28% OLP 16% GPO 8% 2025-02-07 2025-02-08 PCPO 45% NDP 28% OLP 16% GPO 8% 2025-02-08 2025-02-09 PCPO 45% NDP 28% OLP 16% GPO 8% 2025-02-09 2025-02-10 PCPO 46% NDP 28% OLP 16% GPO 8% 2025-02-10 2025-02-11 PCPO 46% NDP 27% OLP 16% GPO 8% 2025-02-11 2025-02-12 PCPO 46% NDP 26% OLP 17% GPO 8% 2025-02-12 2025-02-13 PCPO 46% NDP 27% OLP 17% GPO 8% 2025-02-13 2025-02-14 PCPO 46% NDP 27% OLP 17% GPO 8% 2025-02-14 2025-02-15 PCPO 46% NDP 27% OLP 17% GPO 8% 2025-02-15 2025-02-16 PCPO 46% NDP 27% OLP 17% GPO 8% 2025-02-16 2025-02-17 PCPO 45% NDP 27% OLP 17% GPO 8% 2025-02-17 2025-02-18 PCPO 45% NDP 27% OLP 17% GPO 8% 2025-02-18 2025-02-19 PCPO 46% NDP 27% OLP 17% GPO 8% 2025-02-19 2025-02-20 PCPO 44% NDP 28% OLP 17% GPO 8% 2025-02-20 2025-02-21 PCPO 44% NDP 28% OLP 17% GPO 8% 2025-02-21 2025-02-22 PCPO 44% NDP 29% OLP 16% GPO 8% 2025-02-22 2025-02-23 PCPO 44% NDP 29% OLP 16% GPO 8% 2025-02-23 2025-02-24 PCPO 44% NDP 29% OLP 16% GPO 8% 2025-02-24 2025-02-25 PCPO 44% NDP 29% OLP 16% GPO 8% 2025-02-25 2025-02-26 PCPO 45% NDP 28% OLP 16% GPO 8% 2025-02-26 2025-02-27 PCPO 44% NDP 28% OLP 16% GPO 8% 2025-02-27 2025-02-28 PCPO 44% NDP 32% OLP 13% GPO 8% 2025-02-28 2025-06-07 PCPO 45% NDP 31% OLP 13% GPO 8% 2025-06-07 2025-06-27 PCPO 45% NDP 31% OLP 13% GPO 8% 2025-06-27 2025-07-27 PCPO 45% NDP 31% OLP 13% GPO 8% 2025-07-27 2025-08-31 PCPO 50% NDP 27% OLP 12% GPO 7% 2025-08-31

Seat projection | Northern Ontario

PCPO 11 [9-12] NDP 2 [1-4] Seat projection | Northern Ontario 11 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 2025-02-01 2025-03-01 2025-04-01 2025-05-01 2025-06-01 2025-07-01 2025-08-01 2025-09-01 2025-10-01 2025-11-01 2025-12-01 Election 2025 PCPO NDP August 31, 2025 2025-01-27 PCPO 7 NDP 5 2025-01-27 2025-01-29 PCPO 7 NDP 5 2025-01-29 2025-01-31 PCPO 11 NDP 2 2025-01-31 2025-02-02 PCPO 10 NDP 3 2025-02-02 2025-02-03 PCPO 10 NDP 3 2025-02-03 2025-02-04 PCPO 11 NDP 2 2025-02-04 2025-02-05 PCPO 11 NDP 2 2025-02-05 2025-02-06 PCPO 11 NDP 2 2025-02-06 2025-02-07 PCPO 11 NDP 2 2025-02-07 2025-02-08 PCPO 11 NDP 2 2025-02-08 2025-02-09 PCPO 11 NDP 2 2025-02-09 2025-02-10 PCPO 11 NDP 2 2025-02-10 2025-02-11 PCPO 11 NDP 2 2025-02-11 2025-02-12 PCPO 11 NDP 2 2025-02-12 2025-02-13 PCPO 11 NDP 2 2025-02-13 2025-02-14 PCPO 11 NDP 2 2025-02-14 2025-02-15 PCPO 11 NDP 2 2025-02-15 2025-02-16 PCPO 11 NDP 2 2025-02-16 2025-02-17 PCPO 9 NDP 3 2025-02-17 2025-02-18 PCPO 9 NDP 3 2025-02-18 2025-02-19 PCPO 11 NDP 2 2025-02-19 2025-02-20 PCPO 10 NDP 3 2025-02-20 2025-02-21 PCPO 9 NDP 4 2025-02-21 2025-02-22 PCPO 9 NDP 4 2025-02-22 2025-02-23 PCPO 9 NDP 4 2025-02-23 2025-02-24 PCPO 9 NDP 4 2025-02-24 2025-02-25 PCPO 9 NDP 4 2025-02-25 2025-02-26 PCPO 11 NDP 2 2025-02-26 2025-02-27 PCPO 10 NDP 3 2025-02-27 2025-02-28 PCPO 7 NDP 6 2025-02-28 2025-06-07 PCPO 8 NDP 5 2025-06-07 2025-06-27 PCPO 8 NDP 5 2025-06-27 2025-07-27 PCPO 8 NDP 5 2025-07-27 2025-08-31 PCPO 11 NDP 2 2025-08-31

Seat projection | Northern Ontario


Latest update: August 31, 2025
Safe Likely Leaning Toss up Projected ahead Last election (2022)
5 2 2 2 11 6
0 1 0 1 2 7
0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0

List of electoral districts | Northern Ontario


Latest update: August 31, 2025
Electoral district Current party Latest projection
002 Algoma—Manitoulin Safe PCPO
044 Kenora—Rainy River Safe PCPO
045 Kiiwetinoong Likely NDP
067 Mushkegowuk—James Bay Leaning PCPO
073 Nickel Belt Toss up PCPO/NDP
074 Nipissing Safe PCPO
086 Parry Sound—Muskoka Likely PCPO
093 Sault Ste. Marie Likely PCPO
105 Sudbury Toss up PCPO/NDP
107 Thunder Bay—Atikokan Safe PCPO
108 Thunder Bay—Superior North Toss up PCPO/NDP
109 Timiskaming—Cochrane Leaning PCPO
110 Timmins Safe PCPO