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Ontario

Scarborough Centre


MPP: Smith, David (PCPO)
Latest projection: February 20, 2025
Likely PCPO

Candidates | Scarborough Centre


PC Party of Ontario David Smith
Liberal Party Mazhar Shafiq
Ontario NDP Sonali Chakraborti
Green Party Dean Boulding
New Blue Party Gus Prokos
Centrist Party Haseeb Qureshi

Candidates listed here are on the Elections Ontario website.

Scarborough Centre 44% ± 9% PCPO 33% ± 8% OLP 18% ± 6% NDP PCPO 2022 36.0% 338Canada Popular vote projection | February 20, 2025
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Scarborough Centre 98%▲ PCPO 2%▼ OLP <1% NDP Odds of winning | February 20, 2025
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).


Popular vote projection | Scarborough Centre

OLP 33% ± 8% PCPO 44% ± 9% NDP 18% ± 6% GPO 3% ± 2% Popular vote projection % | Scarborough Centre 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2025-02-01 2025-02-15 2025-03-01 Election 2025 Campaign begins OLP PCPO NDP GPO February 20, 2025 2025-01-27 PCPO 39% OLP 31% NDP 22% GPO 3% 2025-01-27 2025-01-29 PCPO 39% OLP 31% NDP 22% GPO 3% 2025-01-29 2025-01-31 PCPO 42% OLP 30% NDP 22% GPO 3% 2025-01-31 2025-02-02 PCPO 43% OLP 30% NDP 21% GPO 3% 2025-02-02 2025-02-03 PCPO 42% OLP 31% NDP 22% GPO 3% 2025-02-03 2025-02-04 PCPO 43% OLP 32% NDP 20% GPO 3% 2025-02-04 2025-02-05 PCPO 43% OLP 32% NDP 20% GPO 3% 2025-02-05 2025-02-06 PCPO 43% OLP 31% NDP 20% GPO 3% 2025-02-06 2025-02-07 PCPO 43% OLP 31% NDP 20% GPO 3% 2025-02-07 2025-02-08 PCPO 43% OLP 31% NDP 20% GPO 3% 2025-02-08 2025-02-09 PCPO 43% OLP 31% NDP 21% GPO 3% 2025-02-09 2025-02-10 PCPO 43% OLP 31% NDP 20% GPO 3% 2025-02-10 2025-02-11 PCPO 43% OLP 32% NDP 19% GPO 3% 2025-02-11 2025-02-12 PCPO 44% OLP 32% NDP 19% GPO 3% 2025-02-12 2025-02-13 PCPO 44% OLP 32% NDP 19% GPO 3% 2025-02-13 2025-02-14 PCPO 44% OLP 33% NDP 18% GPO 3% 2025-02-14 2025-02-15 PCPO 44% OLP 32% NDP 18% GPO 3% 2025-02-15 2025-02-16 PCPO 44% OLP 32% NDP 18% GPO 3% 2025-02-16 2025-02-17 PCPO 43% OLP 33% NDP 18% GPO 3% 2025-02-17 2025-02-18 PCPO 43% OLP 33% NDP 18% GPO 3% 2025-02-18 2025-02-19 PCPO 44% OLP 33% NDP 18% GPO 3% 2025-02-19 2025-02-20 PCPO 44% OLP 33% NDP 18% GPO 3% 2025-02-20

Odds of winning | Scarborough Centre

OLP 2% PCPO 98% NDP <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2025-02-01 2025-02-15 2025-03-01 Election 2025 Campaign begins OLP PCPO NDP February 20, 2025 2025-01-27 PCPO 91% OLP 9% NDP <1% 2025-01-27 2025-01-29 PCPO 92% OLP 8% NDP <1% 2025-01-29 2025-01-31 PCPO 98% OLP 2% NDP <1% 2025-01-31 2025-02-02 PCPO 99% OLP 1% NDP <1% 2025-02-02 2025-02-03 PCPO 97% OLP 3% NDP <1% 2025-02-03 2025-02-04 PCPO 97% OLP 3% NDP <1% 2025-02-04 2025-02-05 PCPO 97% OLP 3% NDP <1% 2025-02-05 2025-02-06 PCPO 98% OLP 2% NDP <1% 2025-02-06 2025-02-07 PCPO 98% OLP 2% NDP <1% 2025-02-07 2025-02-08 PCPO 98% OLP 2% NDP <1% 2025-02-08 2025-02-09 PCPO 99% OLP 1% NDP <1% 2025-02-09 2025-02-10 PCPO 99% OLP 1% NDP <1% 2025-02-10 2025-02-11 PCPO 98% OLP 2% NDP <1% 2025-02-11 2025-02-12 PCPO 98% OLP 2% NDP <1% 2025-02-12 2025-02-13 PCPO 98% OLP 2% NDP <1% 2025-02-13 2025-02-14 PCPO 98% OLP 2% NDP <1% 2025-02-14 2025-02-15 PCPO 98% OLP 2% NDP <1% 2025-02-15 2025-02-16 PCPO 99% OLP 1% NDP <1% 2025-02-16 2025-02-17 PCPO 96% OLP 4% NDP <1% 2025-02-17 2025-02-18 PCPO 96% OLP 4% NDP <1% 2025-02-18 2025-02-19 PCPO 97% OLP 3% NDP <1% 2025-02-19 2025-02-20 PCPO 98% OLP 2% NDP <1% 2025-02-20

Recent electoral history | Scarborough Centre



2014 2018 2022 Proj. PCPO 21.0% 38.4% 36.0% 44% ± 9% OLP 55.2% 22.2% 30.4% 33% ± 8% NDP 20.6% 33.3% 26.2% 18% ± 6% GPO 3.1% 2.6% 2.8% 3% ± 2% NBPO 0.0% 0.0% 1.1% 0% ± 1%