logo
Ontario

Recent electoral history | Scarborough Centre


2018 2022 2025 Projection PC 46% ± 11% 38.4% 36.0% 44.0% OLP 41% ± 11% 22.2% 30.4% 42.3% NDP 8% ± 5% 33.3% 26.2% 8.7% GPO 3% ± 3% 2.6% 2.8% 3.0% NBPO 1% ± 2% 0.0% 1.1% 1.2%

Latest from the 338Canada newsletter

Loading latest analysis…


Ontario flag

338Canada Scarborough Centre projection

Latest update: January 25, 2026

Scarborough Centre 35% 57% 46% ± 11% PC 30% 51% 41% ± 11% OLP 4% 13% 8% ± 5% NDP PC 2022 44.03% 338Canada Popular vote projection | January 25, 2026
Methodology note. This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Scarborough Centre 77%▼ PC 23%▲ OLP <1% NDP Odds of winning | January 25, 2026
Methodology note. These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of simulated elections.


Popular vote projection | Scarborough Centre

OLP 41% ± 11% PC 46% ± 11% NDP 8% ± 5% Popular vote projection % | Scarborough Centre 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 2026► 2026-01-01 2026-03-01 2026-05-01 Election 2025 OLP PC NDP January 25, 2026 2025-01-27 PC 39% OLP 31% NDP 22% 2025-01-27 2025-01-29 PC 39% OLP 31% NDP 22% 2025-01-29 2025-01-31 PC 42% OLP 30% NDP 22% 2025-01-31 2025-02-02 PC 43% OLP 30% NDP 21% 2025-02-02 2025-02-03 PC 42% OLP 31% NDP 22% 2025-02-03 2025-02-04 PC 43% OLP 32% NDP 20% 2025-02-04 2025-02-05 PC 43% OLP 32% NDP 20% 2025-02-05 2025-02-06 PC 43% OLP 31% NDP 20% 2025-02-06 2025-02-07 PC 43% OLP 31% NDP 20% 2025-02-07 2025-02-08 PC 43% OLP 31% NDP 20% 2025-02-08 2025-02-09 PC 43% OLP 31% NDP 21% 2025-02-09 2025-02-10 PC 43% OLP 31% NDP 20% 2025-02-10 2025-02-11 PC 43% OLP 32% NDP 19% 2025-02-11 2025-02-12 PC 44% OLP 32% NDP 19% 2025-02-12 2025-02-13 PC 44% OLP 32% NDP 19% 2025-02-13 2025-02-14 PC 44% OLP 33% NDP 18% 2025-02-14 2025-02-15 PC 44% OLP 32% NDP 18% 2025-02-15 2025-02-16 PC 44% OLP 32% NDP 18% 2025-02-16 2025-02-17 PC 43% OLP 33% NDP 18% 2025-02-17 2025-02-18 PC 43% OLP 33% NDP 18% 2025-02-18 2025-02-19 PC 44% OLP 33% NDP 18% 2025-02-19 2025-02-20 PC 44% OLP 33% NDP 18% 2025-02-20 2025-02-21 PC 44% OLP 33% NDP 18% 2025-02-21 2025-02-22 PC 44% OLP 33% NDP 18% 2025-02-22 2025-02-23 PC 44% OLP 33% NDP 18% 2025-02-23 2025-02-24 PC 44% OLP 33% NDP 18% 2025-02-24 2025-02-25 PC 44% OLP 33% NDP 18% 2025-02-25 2025-02-26 PC 45% OLP 32% NDP 17% 2025-02-26 2025-02-27 PC 45% OLP 33% NDP 17% 2025-02-27 2025-02-28 PC 44% OLP 42% NDP 9% 2025-02-28 2025-06-07 PC 44% OLP 42% NDP 9% 2025-06-07 2025-06-27 PC 44% OLP 42% NDP 9% 2025-06-27 2025-07-27 PC 45% OLP 42% NDP 8% 2025-07-27 2025-08-31 PC 48% OLP 40% NDP 7% 2025-08-31 2025-10-21 PC 48% OLP 40% NDP 7% 2025-10-21 2025-11-23 PC 48% OLP 40% NDP 8% 2025-11-23 2025-12-20 PC 46% OLP 41% NDP 8% 2025-12-20 2026-01-25 PC 46% OLP 41% NDP 8% 2026-01-25

Odds of winning | Scarborough Centre

OLP 23% PC 77% NDP <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 2026► 2026-01-01 2026-03-01 2026-05-01 Election 2025 OLP PC NDP January 25, 2026 2025-01-27 PC 91% OLP 9% NDP <1% 2025-01-27 2025-01-29 PC 92% OLP 8% NDP <1% 2025-01-29 2025-01-31 PC 98% OLP 2% NDP <1% 2025-01-31 2025-02-02 PC 99% OLP 1% NDP <1% 2025-02-02 2025-02-03 PC 97% OLP 3% NDP <1% 2025-02-03 2025-02-04 PC 97% OLP 3% NDP <1% 2025-02-04 2025-02-05 PC 97% OLP 3% NDP <1% 2025-02-05 2025-02-06 PC 98% OLP 2% NDP <1% 2025-02-06 2025-02-07 PC 98% OLP 2% NDP <1% 2025-02-07 2025-02-08 PC 98% OLP 2% NDP <1% 2025-02-08 2025-02-09 PC 99% OLP 1% NDP <1% 2025-02-09 2025-02-10 PC 99% OLP 1% NDP <1% 2025-02-10 2025-02-11 PC 98% OLP 2% NDP <1% 2025-02-11 2025-02-12 PC 98% OLP 2% NDP <1% 2025-02-12 2025-02-13 PC 98% OLP 2% NDP <1% 2025-02-13 2025-02-14 PC 98% OLP 2% NDP <1% 2025-02-14 2025-02-15 PC 98% OLP 2% NDP <1% 2025-02-15 2025-02-16 PC 99% OLP 1% NDP <1% 2025-02-16 2025-02-17 PC 96% OLP 4% NDP <1% 2025-02-17 2025-02-18 PC 96% OLP 4% NDP <1% 2025-02-18 2025-02-19 PC 97% OLP 3% NDP <1% 2025-02-19 2025-02-20 PC 98% OLP 2% NDP <1% 2025-02-20 2025-02-21 PC 98% OLP 2% NDP <1% 2025-02-21 2025-02-22 PC 98% OLP 2% NDP <1% 2025-02-22 2025-02-23 PC 98% OLP 2% NDP <1% 2025-02-23 2025-02-24 PC 98% OLP 2% NDP <1% 2025-02-24 2025-02-25 PC 98% OLP 2% NDP <1% 2025-02-25 2025-02-26 PC 99% OLP 1% NDP <1% 2025-02-26 2025-02-27 PC 98% OLP 2% NDP <1% 2025-02-27 2025-02-28 PC 64% OLP 36% NDP <1% 2025-02-28 2025-06-07 PC 63% OLP 37% NDP <1% 2025-06-07 2025-06-27 PC 61% OLP 39% NDP <1% 2025-06-27 2025-07-27 PC 68% OLP 32% NDP <1% 2025-07-27 2025-08-31 PC 88% OLP 12% NDP <1% 2025-08-31 2025-10-21 PC 86% OLP 14% NDP <1% 2025-10-21 2025-11-23 PC 86% OLP 14% NDP <1% 2025-11-23 2025-12-20 PC 80% OLP 20% NDP <1% 2025-12-20 2026-01-25 PC 77% OLP 23% NDP <1% 2026-01-25