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GTA/905, 30 districts


Latest update: July 29, 2024
GTA/905 48% ± 7%▲ PCPO 30% ± 6%▼ OLP 13% ± 3%▼ NDP 5% ± 2% GPO 338Canada Popular vote projection | July 29, 2024
This projection is calculated using a weighted average of polls by the 338Canada model to estimate current party support. This is not a poll, but the result of an aggregation of polls and modelization of various data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
GTA/905, 30 districts 30 [27-30] PCPO 0 [0-3] OLP 0 [0-1] NDP 0 [0-0] GPO 338Canada seat projection | July 29, 2024
The seat projections are a forecast of the most likely results if a general election were held today. The brackets indicate the current ranges from worst to best possible outcomes. The distributions follow Gaussian-like curves, so the extremes are not as likely as the values near the mean. Does it work? See 338Canada's full record here.

Popular vote projection | GTA/905

OLP 30% ± 6% PCPO 48% ± 7% NDP 13% ± 3% GPO 5% ± 2% Popular vote projection % | GTA/905 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2022-05-01 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 Election 2022 OLP PCPO NDP GPO July 29, 2024 2022-04-30 PCPO 43% OLP 34% NDP 14% GPO 3% 2022-04-30 2022-05-03 PCPO 41% OLP 33% NDP 18% GPO 3% 2022-05-03 2022-05-04 PCPO 41% OLP 32% NDP 18% GPO 3% 2022-05-04 2022-05-05 PCPO 42% OLP 32% NDP 18% GPO 3% 2022-05-05 2022-05-06 PCPO 42% OLP 32% NDP 18% GPO 3% 2022-05-06 2022-05-07 PCPO 41% OLP 32% NDP 18% GPO 3% 2022-05-07 2022-05-08 PCPO 41% OLP 33% NDP 18% GPO 3% 2022-05-08 2022-05-09 PCPO 41% OLP 33% NDP 18% GPO 3% 2022-05-09 2022-05-10 PCPO 41% OLP 34% NDP 18% GPO 3% 2022-05-10 2022-05-11 PCPO 42% OLP 32% NDP 18% GPO 3% 2022-05-11 2022-05-12 PCPO 42% OLP 33% NDP 18% GPO 3% 2022-05-12 2022-05-13 PCPO 42% OLP 32% NDP 17% GPO 3% 2022-05-13 2022-05-14 PCPO 43% OLP 33% NDP 18% GPO 3% 2022-05-14 2022-05-15 PCPO 43% OLP 32% NDP 19% GPO 3% 2022-05-15 2022-05-16 PCPO 42% OLP 33% NDP 19% GPO 3% 2022-05-16 2022-05-17 PCPO 42% OLP 34% NDP 18% GPO 3% 2022-05-17 2022-05-18 PCPO 42% OLP 33% NDP 18% GPO 3% 2022-05-18 2022-05-19 PCPO 41% OLP 33% NDP 17% GPO 4% 2022-05-19 2022-05-20 PCPO 41% OLP 32% NDP 19% GPO 4% 2022-05-20 2022-05-21 PCPO 41% OLP 32% NDP 19% GPO 4% 2022-05-21 2022-05-22 PCPO 40% OLP 32% NDP 19% GPO 4% 2022-05-22 2022-05-23 PCPO 41% OLP 32% NDP 19% GPO 4% 2022-05-23 2022-05-24 PCPO 41% OLP 32% NDP 19% GPO 4% 2022-05-24 2022-05-25 PCPO 41% OLP 32% NDP 18% GPO 4% 2022-05-25 2022-05-26 PCPO 41% OLP 32% NDP 18% GPO 4% 2022-05-26 2022-05-27 PCPO 41% OLP 31% NDP 19% GPO 4% 2022-05-27 2022-05-28 PCPO 42% OLP 31% NDP 18% GPO 4% 2022-05-28 2022-05-29 PCPO 42% OLP 31% NDP 18% GPO 4% 2022-05-29 2022-05-30 PCPO 42% OLP 31% NDP 18% GPO 4% 2022-05-30 2022-05-31 PCPO 42% OLP 31% NDP 18% GPO 4% 2022-05-31 2022-06-01 PCPO 44% OLP 30% NDP 17% GPO 4% 2022-06-01 2022-06-03 PCPO 47% OLP 30% NDP 15% GPO 4% 2022-06-03 2022-12-30 PCPO 46% OLP 30% NDP 15% GPO 4% 2022-12-30 2023-02-15 PCPO 46% OLP 31% NDP 14% GPO 5% 2023-02-15 2023-03-09 PCPO 46% OLP 32% NDP 14% GPO 4% 2023-03-09 2023-03-17 PCPO 46% OLP 32% NDP 14% GPO 4% 2023-03-17 2023-04-16 PCPO 46% OLP 31% NDP 14% GPO 4% 2023-04-16 2023-07-07 PCPO 42% OLP 32% NDP 16% GPO 6% 2023-07-07 2023-07-22 PCPO 42% OLP 32% NDP 16% GPO 6% 2023-07-22 2023-07-28 PCPO 43% OLP 32% NDP 15% GPO 5% 2023-07-28 2023-08-26 PCPO 44% OLP 31% NDP 15% GPO 5% 2023-08-26 2023-10-07 PCPO 41% OLP 33% NDP 16% GPO 6% 2023-10-07 2023-10-23 PCPO 43% OLP 31% NDP 15% GPO 5% 2023-10-23 2023-12-01 PCPO 46% OLP 30% NDP 15% GPO 5% 2023-12-01 2023-12-20 PCPO 44% OLP 33% NDP 15% GPO 5% 2023-12-20 2024-02-02 PCPO 44% OLP 34% NDP 15% GPO 5% 2024-02-02 2024-02-20 PCPO 42% OLP 36% NDP 14% GPO 5% 2024-02-20 2024-03-05 PCPO 44% OLP 34% NDP 14% GPO 5% 2024-03-05 2024-04-04 PCPO 44% OLP 33% NDP 14% GPO 5% 2024-04-04 2024-05-03 PCPO 45% OLP 32% NDP 14% GPO 5% 2024-05-03 2024-06-30 PCPO 46% OLP 31% NDP 14% GPO 5% 2024-06-30 2024-07-29 PCPO 48% OLP 30% NDP 13% GPO 5% 2024-07-29

Seat projection | GTA/905

OLP 0 [0-3] PCPO 30 [27-30] NDP 0 [0-1] Seat projection | GTA/905 30 25 20 15 10 5 2022-05-01 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 Election 2022 OLP PCPO NDP July 29, 2024 2022-04-30 PCPO 26 OLP 4 NDP 0 2022-04-30 2022-05-03 PCPO 25 OLP 5 NDP 0 2022-05-03 2022-05-04 PCPO 28 OLP 2 NDP 0 2022-05-04 2022-05-05 PCPO 29 OLP 1 NDP 0 2022-05-05 2022-05-06 PCPO 29 OLP 1 NDP 0 2022-05-06 2022-05-07 PCPO 28 OLP 2 NDP 0 2022-05-07 2022-05-08 PCPO 24 OLP 6 NDP 0 2022-05-08 2022-05-09 PCPO 23 OLP 7 NDP 0 2022-05-09 2022-05-10 PCPO 24 OLP 6 NDP 0 2022-05-10 2022-05-11 PCPO 29 OLP 1 NDP 0 2022-05-11 2022-05-12 PCPO 29 OLP 1 NDP 0 2022-05-12 2022-05-13 PCPO 28 OLP 2 NDP 0 2022-05-13 2022-05-14 PCPO 28 OLP 2 NDP 0 2022-05-14 2022-05-15 PCPO 30 OLP 0 NDP 0 2022-05-15 2022-05-16 PCPO 28 OLP 2 NDP 0 2022-05-16 2022-05-17 PCPO 28 OLP 2 NDP 0 2022-05-17 2022-05-18 PCPO 28 OLP 2 NDP 0 2022-05-18 2022-05-19 PCPO 27 OLP 3 NDP 0 2022-05-19 2022-05-20 PCPO 26 OLP 4 NDP 0 2022-05-20 2022-05-21 PCPO 26 OLP 4 NDP 0 2022-05-21 2022-05-22 PCPO 26 OLP 4 NDP 0 2022-05-22 2022-05-23 PCPO 29 OLP 1 NDP 0 2022-05-23 2022-05-24 PCPO 28 OLP 2 NDP 0 2022-05-24 2022-05-25 PCPO 30 OLP 0 NDP 0 2022-05-25 2022-05-26 PCPO 30 OLP 0 NDP 0 2022-05-26 2022-05-27 PCPO 28 OLP 2 NDP 0 2022-05-27 2022-05-28 PCPO 30 OLP 0 NDP 0 2022-05-28 2022-05-29 PCPO 29 OLP 1 NDP 0 2022-05-29 2022-05-30 PCPO 26 OLP 4 NDP 0 2022-05-30 2022-05-31 PCPO 26 OLP 4 NDP 0 2022-05-31 2022-06-01 PCPO 28 OLP 1 NDP 1 2022-06-01 2022-06-03 PCPO 29 NDP 1 OLP 0 2022-06-03 2022-12-30 PCPO 29 NDP 1 OLP 0 2022-12-30 2023-02-15 PCPO 30 OLP 0 NDP 0 2023-02-15 2023-03-09 PCPO 30 OLP 0 NDP 0 2023-03-09 2023-03-17 PCPO 30 OLP 0 NDP 0 2023-03-17 2023-04-16 PCPO 29 NDP 1 OLP 0 2023-04-16 2023-07-07 PCPO 24 OLP 5 NDP 1 2023-07-07 2023-07-22 PCPO 24 OLP 5 NDP 1 2023-07-22 2023-07-28 PCPO 26 OLP 3 NDP 1 2023-07-28 2023-08-26 PCPO 27 OLP 2 NDP 1 2023-08-26 2023-10-07 PCPO 22 OLP 7 NDP 1 2023-10-07 2023-10-23 PCPO 27 OLP 2 NDP 1 2023-10-23 2023-12-01 PCPO 29 NDP 1 OLP 0 2023-12-01 2023-12-20 PCPO 23 OLP 6 NDP 1 2023-12-20 2024-02-02 PCPO 22 OLP 7 NDP 1 2024-02-02 2024-02-20 PCPO 21 OLP 8 NDP 1 2024-02-20 2024-03-05 PCPO 22 OLP 7 NDP 1 2024-03-05 2024-04-04 PCPO 24 OLP 5 NDP 1 2024-04-04 2024-05-03 PCPO 27 OLP 2 NDP 1 2024-05-03 2024-06-30 PCPO 30 OLP 0 NDP 0 2024-06-30 2024-07-29 PCPO 30 OLP 0 NDP 0 2024-07-29

Seat projection | GTA/905


Latest update: July 29, 2024
Safe Likely Leaning Toss up Projected ahead Last election (2022)
14 10 6 0 30 29
0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 1

List of electoral districts | GTA/905


Latest update: July 29, 2024
Electoral district Current party Latest projection
001 Ajax Leaning PCPO
003 Aurora—Oak Ridges—Richmond Hill Safe PCPO
008 Brampton Centre Safe PCPO
009 Brampton East Safe PCPO
010 Brampton North Safe PCPO
011 Brampton South Safe PCPO
012 Brampton West Safe PCPO
015 Burlington Likely PCPO
024 Durham Safe PCPO
047 King—Vaughan Safe PCPO
057 Markham—Stouffville Likely PCPO
058 Markham—Thornhill Likely PCPO
059 Markham—Unionville Safe PCPO
060 Milton Likely PCPO
061 Mississauga Centre Leaning PCPO
062 Mississauga East—Cooksville Leaning PCPO
063 Mississauga—Erin Mills Leaning PCPO
064 Mississauga—Lakeshore Leaning PCPO
065 Mississauga—Malton Likely PCPO
066 Mississauga—Streetsville Likely PCPO
069 Newmarket—Aurora Likely PCPO
076 Oakville Likely PCPO
077 Oakville North—Burlington Likely PCPO
079 Oshawa Leaning PCPO
089 Pickering—Uxbridge Safe PCPO
091 Richmond Hill Safe PCPO
106 Thornhill Safe PCPO
115 Vaughan—Woodbridge Likely PCPO
118 Whitby Safe PCPO
124 York—Simcoe Safe PCPO