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Ontario

GTA/905, 30 districts



Safe Likely Leaning Toss up Projected ahead Last election (2022)
3 11 4 3 21 29
0 3 5 0 8 0
0 0 1 0 1 1




Projection | GTA/905


Latest update: February 20, 2024
GTA/905 42% ± 7%▼ 36% ± 6%▲ 14% ± 3%▼ 5% ± 2% 338Canada Popular vote projection | February 20, 2024
This projection is calculated using a weighted average of polls by the 338Canada model to estimate current party support. This is not a poll, but the result of an aggregation of polls and modelization of various data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
GTA/905, 30 districts 21▼ [16-24] 8▲ [6-13] 1 [0-1] 0 [0-0] 338Canada seat projection | February 20, 2024
The seat projections are a forecast of the most likely results if a general election were held today. The brackets indicate the current ranges from worst to best possible outcomes. The distributions follow Gaussian-like curves, so the extremes are not as likely as the values near the mean. Does it work? See 338Canada's full record here.

Popular vote projection | GTA/905

OLP 36% ± 6% PCPO 42% ± 7% NDP 14% ± 3% GPO 5% ± 2% Popular vote projection % | GTA/905 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2022-07-01 2022-10-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-04-01 2023-07-01 2023-10-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-04-01 2024-07-01 2024-10-01 Election 2022 OLP PCPO NDP GPO

Seat projection | GTA/905

OLP 8 [6-13] PCPO 21 [16-24] NDP 1 [0-1] Seat projection | GTA/905 30 25 20 15 10 5 2022-07-01 2022-10-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-04-01 2023-07-01 2023-10-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-04-01 2024-07-01 2024-10-01 Election 2022 OLP PCPO NDP

List of electoral districts


Latest update: February 20, 2024
Electoral district Current party Latest projection
001 Ajax Leaning OLP
003 Aurora—Oak Ridges—Richmond Hill Likely PCPO
008 Brampton Centre Likely PCPO
009 Brampton East Likely PCPO
010 Brampton North Likely PCPO
011 Brampton South Likely PCPO
012 Brampton West Likely PCPO
015 Burlington Leaning PCPO
024 Durham Likely PCPO
047 King—Vaughan Safe PCPO
057 Markham—Stouffville Leaning PCPO
058 Markham—Thornhill Toss up OLP/PCPO
059 Markham—Unionville Likely PCPO
060 Milton Leaning OLP
061 Mississauga Centre Likely OLP
062 Mississauga East—Cooksville Likely OLP
063 Mississauga—Erin Mills Likely OLP
064 Mississauga—Lakeshore Leaning OLP
065 Mississauga—Malton Toss up OLP/PCPO
066 Mississauga—Streetsville Leaning OLP
069 Newmarket—Aurora Leaning PCPO
076 Oakville Leaning OLP
077 Oakville North—Burlington Toss up OLP/PCPO
079 Oshawa Leaning NDP
089 Pickering—Uxbridge Likely PCPO
091 Richmond Hill Likely PCPO
106 Thornhill Likely PCPO
115 Vaughan—Woodbridge Leaning PCPO
118 Whitby Safe PCPO
124 York—Simcoe Safe PCPO