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Ontario

GTA/905, 30 districts


Latest update: May 3, 2024
GTA/905 45% ± 7%▲ PCPO 32% ± 6%▼ OLP 14% ± 3% NDP 5% ± 2% GPO 338Canada Popular vote projection | May 3, 2024
This projection is calculated using a weighted average of polls by the 338Canada model to estimate current party support. This is not a poll, but the result of an aggregation of polls and modelization of various data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
GTA/905, 30 districts 27▲ [23-30] PCPO 2▼ [0-6] OLP 1 [0-1] NDP 0 [0-0] GPO 338Canada seat projection | May 3, 2024
The seat projections are a forecast of the most likely results if a general election were held today. The brackets indicate the current ranges from worst to best possible outcomes. The distributions follow Gaussian-like curves, so the extremes are not as likely as the values near the mean. Does it work? See 338Canada's full record here.

Popular vote projection | GTA/905

OLP 32% ± 6% PCPO 45% ± 7% NDP 14% ± 3% GPO 5% ± 2% Popular vote projection % | GTA/905 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2022-05-01 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 Election 2022 OLP PCPO NDP GPO

Seat projection | GTA/905

OLP 2 [0-6] PCPO 27 [23-30] NDP 1 [0-1] Seat projection | GTA/905 30 25 20 15 10 5 2022-05-01 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 Election 2022 OLP PCPO NDP

Seat projection | GTA/905


Latest update: May 3, 2024
Safe Likely Leaning Toss up Projected ahead Last election (2022)
7 13 4 3 27 29
0 0 0 2 2 0
0 0 0 1 1 1

List of electoral districts | GTA/905


Latest update: May 3, 2024
Electoral district Current party Latest projection
001 Ajax Toss up OLP/PCPO
003 Aurora—Oak Ridges—Richmond Hill Likely PCPO
008 Brampton Centre Likely PCPO
009 Brampton East Likely PCPO
010 Brampton North Likely PCPO
011 Brampton South Likely PCPO
012 Brampton West Safe PCPO
015 Burlington Likely PCPO
024 Durham Safe PCPO
047 King—Vaughan Safe PCPO
057 Markham—Stouffville Likely PCPO
058 Markham—Thornhill Leaning PCPO
059 Markham—Unionville Safe PCPO
060 Milton Leaning PCPO
061 Mississauga Centre Toss up OLP/PCPO
062 Mississauga East—Cooksville Toss up OLP/PCPO
063 Mississauga—Erin Mills Toss up OLP/PCPO
064 Mississauga—Lakeshore Toss up OLP/PCPO
065 Mississauga—Malton Likely PCPO
066 Mississauga—Streetsville Leaning PCPO
069 Newmarket—Aurora Likely PCPO
076 Oakville Leaning PCPO
077 Oakville North—Burlington Likely PCPO
079 Oshawa Toss up PCPO/NDP
089 Pickering—Uxbridge Likely PCPO
091 Richmond Hill Likely PCPO
106 Thornhill Safe PCPO
115 Vaughan—Woodbridge Likely PCPO
118 Whitby Safe PCPO
124 York—Simcoe Safe PCPO