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Toronto Centre


MPP: Wong-Tam, Kristyn (NDP)

Latest projection: July 29, 2024
Toss up OLP/NDP
Toronto Centre 39% ± 9% OLP 38% ± 9%▼ NDP 13% ± 5%▲ PCPO 7% ± 4% GPO NDP 2022 43.8% 338Canada Popular vote projection | July 29, 2024
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by profesional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Toronto Centre 58%▲ OLP 42%▼ NDP <1% PCPO Odds of winning | July 29, 2024
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).


Popular vote projection | Toronto Centre

OLP 39% ± 9% PCPO 13% ± 5% NDP 38% ± 9% GPO 7% ± 4% Popular vote projection % | Toronto Centre 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2022-05-01 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 Election 2022 OLP PCPO NDP GPO July 29, 2024 2022-04-30 OLP 39% NDP 39% PCPO 13% GPO 4% 2022-04-30 2022-05-03 NDP 39% OLP 39% PCPO 13% GPO 4% 2022-05-03 2022-05-04 OLP 39% NDP 38% PCPO 13% GPO 4% 2022-05-04 2022-05-05 OLP 40% NDP 38% PCPO 13% GPO 4% 2022-05-05 2022-05-06 OLP 39% NDP 38% PCPO 13% GPO 4% 2022-05-06 2022-05-07 OLP 39% NDP 38% PCPO 13% GPO 4% 2022-05-07 2022-05-08 OLP 39% NDP 38% PCPO 13% GPO 4% 2022-05-08 2022-05-09 OLP 40% NDP 38% PCPO 13% GPO 4% 2022-05-09 2022-05-10 OLP 39% NDP 39% PCPO 13% GPO 4% 2022-05-10 2022-05-11 NDP 39% OLP 38% PCPO 14% GPO 4% 2022-05-11 2022-05-12 NDP 39% OLP 38% PCPO 14% GPO 4% 2022-05-12 2022-05-13 NDP 39% OLP 38% PCPO 14% GPO 4% 2022-05-13 2022-05-14 NDP 39% OLP 38% PCPO 14% GPO 4% 2022-05-14 2022-05-15 NDP 39% OLP 38% PCPO 14% GPO 4% 2022-05-15 2022-05-16 NDP 39% OLP 38% PCPO 14% GPO 4% 2022-05-16 2022-05-17 OLP 40% NDP 37% PCPO 14% GPO 4% 2022-05-17 2022-05-18 OLP 40% NDP 36% PCPO 14% GPO 4% 2022-05-18 2022-05-19 OLP 39% NDP 36% PCPO 14% GPO 6% 2022-05-19 2022-05-20 OLP 39% NDP 36% PCPO 13% GPO 6% 2022-05-20 2022-05-21 OLP 38% NDP 36% PCPO 13% GPO 6% 2022-05-21 2022-05-22 OLP 38% NDP 37% PCPO 13% GPO 6% 2022-05-22 2022-05-23 OLP 38% NDP 36% PCPO 14% GPO 6% 2022-05-23 2022-05-24 OLP 39% NDP 36% PCPO 14% GPO 6% 2022-05-24 2022-05-25 OLP 38% NDP 36% PCPO 14% GPO 6% 2022-05-25 2022-05-26 OLP 38% NDP 36% PCPO 14% GPO 6% 2022-05-26 2022-05-27 NDP 38% OLP 36% PCPO 14% GPO 6% 2022-05-27 2022-05-28 NDP 37% OLP 36% PCPO 15% GPO 6% 2022-05-28 2022-05-29 NDP 37% OLP 36% PCPO 15% GPO 6% 2022-05-29 2022-05-30 NDP 37% OLP 37% PCPO 15% GPO 6% 2022-05-30 2022-05-31 NDP 37% OLP 36% PCPO 15% GPO 6% 2022-05-31 2022-06-01 NDP 37% OLP 36% PCPO 15% GPO 6% 2022-06-01 2022-06-03 NDP 44% OLP 37% PCPO 12% GPO 5% 2022-06-03 2022-12-30 NDP 44% OLP 36% PCPO 12% GPO 5% 2022-12-30 2023-02-15 NDP 41% OLP 38% PCPO 12% GPO 6% 2023-02-15 2023-03-09 NDP 41% OLP 39% PCPO 12% GPO 6% 2023-03-09 2023-03-17 NDP 41% OLP 39% PCPO 12% GPO 6% 2023-03-17 2023-04-16 NDP 42% OLP 38% PCPO 12% GPO 6% 2023-04-16 2023-07-07 NDP 44% OLP 37% PCPO 10% GPO 8% 2023-07-07 2023-07-22 NDP 43% OLP 37% PCPO 10% GPO 7% 2023-07-22 2023-07-28 NDP 43% OLP 37% PCPO 10% GPO 7% 2023-07-28 2023-08-26 NDP 43% OLP 37% PCPO 11% GPO 7% 2023-08-26 2023-10-07 NDP 43% OLP 38% PCPO 10% GPO 7% 2023-10-07 2023-10-23 NDP 44% OLP 37% PCPO 10% GPO 7% 2023-10-23 2023-12-01 NDP 44% OLP 36% PCPO 11% GPO 7% 2023-12-01 2023-12-20 NDP 42% OLP 38% PCPO 11% GPO 6% 2023-12-20 2024-02-02 NDP 42% OLP 39% PCPO 11% GPO 6% 2024-02-02 2024-02-20 OLP 44% NDP 39% PCPO 10% GPO 6% 2024-02-20 2024-03-05 OLP 43% NDP 37% PCPO 12% GPO 7% 2024-03-05 2024-04-04 OLP 41% NDP 39% PCPO 12% GPO 6% 2024-04-04 2024-05-03 OLP 40% NDP 39% PCPO 12% GPO 7% 2024-05-03 2024-06-30 NDP 40% OLP 39% PCPO 12% GPO 7% 2024-06-30 2024-07-29 OLP 39% NDP 38% PCPO 13% GPO 7% 2024-07-29

Odds of winning | Toronto Centre

OLP 58% PCPO <1% NDP 42% GPO <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2022-05-01 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 Election 2022 OLP PCPO NDP GPO July 29, 2024 2022-04-30 OLP 51% NDP 49% GPO <1% PCPO <1% 2022-04-30 2022-05-03 NDP 51% OLP 49% GPO <1% PCPO <1% 2022-05-03 2022-05-04 OLP 58% NDP 42% GPO <1% PCPO <1% 2022-05-04 2022-05-05 OLP 61% NDP 39% GPO <1% PCPO <1% 2022-05-05 2022-05-06 OLP 56% NDP 44% GPO <1% PCPO <1% 2022-05-06 2022-05-07 OLP 56% NDP 44% GPO <1% PCPO <1% 2022-05-07 2022-05-08 OLP 57% NDP 43% GPO <1% PCPO <1% 2022-05-08 2022-05-09 OLP 65% NDP 35% GPO <1% PCPO <1% 2022-05-09 2022-05-10 OLP 52% NDP 48% GPO <1% PCPO <1% 2022-05-10 2022-05-11 NDP 58% OLP 42% GPO <1% PCPO <1% 2022-05-11 2022-05-12 NDP 56% OLP 44% GPO <1% PCPO <1% 2022-05-12 2022-05-13 NDP 54% OLP 46% GPO <1% PCPO <1% 2022-05-13 2022-05-14 NDP 54% OLP 46% GPO <1% PCPO <1% 2022-05-14 2022-05-15 NDP 59% OLP 41% GPO <1% PCPO <1% 2022-05-15 2022-05-16 NDP 55% OLP 45% GPO <1% PCPO <1% 2022-05-16 2022-05-17 OLP 70% NDP 30% GPO <1% PCPO <1% 2022-05-17 2022-05-18 OLP 73% NDP 27% GPO <1% PCPO <1% 2022-05-18 2022-05-19 OLP 70% NDP 30% GPO <1% PCPO <1% 2022-05-19 2022-05-20 OLP 64% NDP 36% GPO <1% PCPO <1% 2022-05-20 2022-05-21 OLP 63% NDP 37% GPO <1% PCPO <1% 2022-05-21 2022-05-22 OLP 63% NDP 37% GPO <1% PCPO <1% 2022-05-22 2022-05-23 OLP 65% NDP 35% GPO <1% PCPO <1% 2022-05-23 2022-05-24 OLP 67% NDP 33% GPO <1% PCPO <1% 2022-05-24 2022-05-25 OLP 68% NDP 32% GPO <1% PCPO <1% 2022-05-25 2022-05-26 OLP 68% NDP 32% GPO <1% PCPO <1% 2022-05-26 2022-05-27 NDP 58% OLP 42% GPO <1% PCPO <1% 2022-05-27 2022-05-28 NDP 52% OLP 48% GPO <1% PCPO <1% 2022-05-28 2022-05-29 NDP 52% OLP 48% GPO <1% PCPO <1% 2022-05-29 2022-05-30 NDP 52% OLP 48% GPO <1% PCPO <1% 2022-05-30 2022-05-31 NDP 52% OLP 48% GPO <1% PCPO <1% 2022-05-31 2022-06-01 NDP 59% OLP 41% GPO <1% PCPO <1% 2022-06-01 2022-06-03 NDP 96% OLP 4% GPO <1% PCPO <1% 2022-06-03 2022-12-30 NDP 88% OLP 12% GPO <1% PCPO <1% 2022-12-30 2023-02-15 NDP 68% OLP 32% GPO <1% PCPO <1% 2023-02-15 2023-03-09 NDP 61% OLP 39% GPO <1% PCPO <1% 2023-03-09 2023-03-17 NDP 62% OLP 38% GPO <1% PCPO <1% 2023-03-17 2023-04-16 NDP 74% OLP 26% GPO <1% PCPO <1% 2023-04-16 2023-07-07 NDP 86% OLP 14% GPO <1% PCPO <1% 2023-07-07 2023-07-22 NDP 85% OLP 15% GPO <1% PCPO <1% 2023-07-22 2023-07-28 NDP 84% OLP 16% GPO <1% PCPO <1% 2023-07-28 2023-08-26 NDP 82% OLP 18% GPO <1% PCPO <1% 2023-08-26 2023-10-07 NDP 80% OLP 20% GPO <1% PCPO <1% 2023-10-07 2023-10-23 NDP 86% OLP 14% GPO <1% PCPO <1% 2023-10-23 2023-12-01 NDP 88% OLP 12% GPO <1% PCPO <1% 2023-12-01 2023-12-20 NDP 73% OLP 27% GPO <1% PCPO <1% 2023-12-20 2024-02-02 NDP 63% OLP 37% GPO <1% PCPO <1% 2024-02-02 2024-02-20 OLP 78% NDP 22% GPO <1% PCPO <1% 2024-02-20 2024-03-05 OLP 80% NDP 20% GPO <1% PCPO <1% 2024-03-05 2024-04-04 OLP 59% NDP 41% GPO <1% PCPO <1% 2024-04-04 2024-05-03 OLP 59% NDP 41% GPO <1% PCPO <1% 2024-05-03 2024-06-30 NDP 53% OLP 47% GPO <1% PCPO <1% 2024-06-30 2024-07-29 OLP 58% NDP 42% GPO <1% PCPO <1% 2024-07-29

Recent electoral history | Toronto Centre



2014 2018 2022 Proj. NDP 19.5% 53.7% 43.8% 38% ± 9% OLP 60.5% 27.2% 36.7% 39% ± 9% PCPO 12.2% 14.1% 12.2% 13% ± 5% GPO 4.7% 3.1% 5.1% 7% ± 4% NBPO 0.0% 0.0% 1.1% 1% ± 1%