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Ontario


Toronto Centre


MPP: Wong-Tam, Kristyn (NDP)


Latest projection: April 4, 2024

Toss up OLP/NDP
Toronto Centre 41% ± 9%▼ 39% ± 9%▲ 12% ± 5% 6% ± 4%▼ NDP 2022 43.8% 338Canada Popular vote projection | April 4, 2024
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by profesional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.

50% 100% Toronto Centre 59%▼ 41%▲ <1% Odds of winning | April 4, 2024
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).


Popular vote projection | Toronto Centre

OLP 41% ± 9% PCPO 12% ± 5% NDP 39% ± 9% GPO 6% ± 4% Popular vote projection % | Toronto Centre 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2022-05-01 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 Election 2022 OLP PCPO NDP GPO

Odds of winning | Toronto Centre

OLP 59% PCPO <1% NDP 41% GPO <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2022-05-01 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 Election 2022 OLP PCPO NDP GPO

Recent electoral history | Toronto Centre



2014 2018 2022 Proj. NDP 19.5% 53.7% 43.8% 39% ± 9% OLP 60.5% 27.2% 36.7% 41% ± 9% PCPO 12.2% 14.1% 12.2% 12% ± 5% GPO 4.7% 3.1% 5.1% 6% ± 4% NBPO 0.0% 0.0% 1.1% 1% ± 1%