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Recent electoral history | Toronto Centre


2018 2022 2025 Projection NDP 47% ± 10% 53.7% 43.8% 44.5% OLP 34% ± 9% 27.2% 36.7% 36.2% PC 15% ± 6% 14.1% 12.2% 14.5% GPO 3% ± 2% 3.1% 5.1% 2.7% NBPO 1% ± 1% 0.0% 1.1% 0.7% IND 0% ± 1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.4%

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338Canada Toronto Centre projection

Latest update: February 18, 2026

Toronto Centre 37% 57% 47% ± 10% NDP 24% 43% 34% ± 9% OLP 9% 20% 15% ± 6% PC NDP 2025 44.5% 338Canada Popular vote projection | February 18, 2026
Methodology note. This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Toronto Centre 98% NDP 2% OLP <1% PC Odds of winning | February 18, 2026
Methodology note. These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of simulated elections.


Popular vote projection | Toronto Centre

OLP 34% ± 9% PC 15% ± 6% NDP 47% ± 10% Popular vote projection % | Toronto Centre 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 2026► 2026-01-01 2026-03-01 2026-05-01 2026-07-01 Election 2025 OLP PC NDP February 18, 2026 2025-01-27 OLP 39% NDP 38% PC 14% 2025-01-27 2025-01-29 OLP 39% NDP 38% PC 14% 2025-01-29 2025-01-31 OLP 38% NDP 38% PC 16% 2025-01-31 2025-02-02 OLP 38% NDP 38% PC 16% 2025-02-02 2025-02-03 OLP 39% NDP 38% PC 16% 2025-02-03 2025-02-04 OLP 40% NDP 37% PC 16% 2025-02-04 2025-02-05 OLP 40% NDP 37% PC 16% 2025-02-05 2025-02-06 OLP 39% NDP 37% PC 17% 2025-02-06 2025-02-07 OLP 39% NDP 37% PC 17% 2025-02-07 2025-02-08 OLP 39% NDP 37% PC 16% 2025-02-08 2025-02-09 OLP 38% NDP 38% PC 17% 2025-02-09 2025-02-10 OLP 39% NDP 37% PC 17% 2025-02-10 2025-02-11 OLP 40% NDP 36% PC 17% 2025-02-11 2025-02-12 OLP 40% NDP 35% PC 17% 2025-02-12 2025-02-13 OLP 40% NDP 35% PC 17% 2025-02-13 2025-02-14 OLP 39% NDP 36% PC 17% 2025-02-14 2025-02-15 OLP 39% NDP 36% PC 17% 2025-02-15 2025-02-16 OLP 39% NDP 36% PC 17% 2025-02-16 2025-02-17 OLP 40% NDP 36% PC 16% 2025-02-17 2025-02-18 OLP 40% NDP 36% PC 16% 2025-02-18 2025-02-19 OLP 39% NDP 36% PC 17% 2025-02-19 2025-02-20 OLP 40% NDP 36% PC 17% 2025-02-20 2025-02-21 OLP 39% NDP 36% PC 17% 2025-02-21 2025-02-22 OLP 38% NDP 37% PC 17% 2025-02-22 2025-02-23 OLP 38% NDP 37% PC 17% 2025-02-23 2025-02-24 OLP 38% NDP 37% PC 17% 2025-02-24 2025-02-25 OLP 38% NDP 37% PC 17% 2025-02-25 2025-02-26 OLP 38% NDP 36% PC 17% 2025-02-26 2025-02-27 OLP 39% NDP 36% PC 17% 2025-02-27 2025-02-28 NDP 44% OLP 36% PC 15% 2025-02-28 2025-06-07 NDP 44% OLP 36% PC 15% 2025-06-07 2025-06-27 NDP 44% OLP 36% PC 15% 2025-06-27 2025-07-27 NDP 44% OLP 36% PC 15% 2025-07-27 2025-08-31 NDP 40% OLP 37% PC 17% 2025-08-31 2025-10-21 NDP 42% OLP 37% PC 17% 2025-10-21 2025-11-23 NDP 45% OLP 35% PC 16% 2025-11-23 2025-12-20 NDP 47% OLP 34% PC 15% 2025-12-20 2026-01-25 NDP 47% OLP 34% PC 15% 2026-01-25 2026-02-18 NDP 47% OLP 34% PC 15% 2026-02-18

Odds of winning | Toronto Centre

OLP 2% NDP 98% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 2026► 2026-01-01 2026-03-01 2026-05-01 2026-07-01 Election 2025 OLP NDP February 18, 2026 2025-01-27 OLP 58% NDP 42% 2025-01-27 2025-01-29 OLP 58% NDP 42% 2025-01-29 2025-01-31 OLP 53% NDP 47% 2025-01-31 2025-02-02 OLP 53% NDP 47% 2025-02-02 2025-02-03 OLP 54% NDP 46% 2025-02-03 2025-02-04 OLP 68% NDP 32% 2025-02-04 2025-02-05 OLP 69% NDP 31% 2025-02-05 2025-02-06 OLP 66% NDP 34% 2025-02-06 2025-02-07 OLP 66% NDP 34% 2025-02-07 2025-02-08 OLP 66% NDP 34% 2025-02-08 2025-02-09 OLP 54% NDP 46% 2025-02-09 2025-02-10 OLP 62% NDP 38% 2025-02-10 2025-02-11 OLP 73% NDP 27% 2025-02-11 2025-02-12 OLP 80% NDP 20% 2025-02-12 2025-02-13 OLP 81% NDP 19% 2025-02-13 2025-02-14 OLP 69% NDP 31% 2025-02-14 2025-02-15 OLP 70% NDP 30% 2025-02-15 2025-02-16 OLP 71% NDP 29% 2025-02-16 2025-02-17 OLP 71% NDP 29% 2025-02-17 2025-02-18 OLP 71% NDP 29% 2025-02-18 2025-02-19 OLP 71% NDP 29% 2025-02-19 2025-02-20 OLP 71% NDP 29% 2025-02-20 2025-02-21 OLP 68% NDP 32% 2025-02-21 2025-02-22 OLP 59% NDP 41% 2025-02-22 2025-02-23 OLP 58% NDP 42% 2025-02-23 2025-02-24 OLP 58% NDP 42% 2025-02-24 2025-02-25 OLP 58% NDP 42% 2025-02-25 2025-02-26 OLP 63% NDP 37% 2025-02-26 2025-02-27 OLP 64% NDP 36% 2025-02-27 2025-02-28 NDP 98% OLP 2% 2025-02-28 2025-06-07 NDP 90% OLP 10% 2025-06-07 2025-06-27 NDP 88% OLP 12% 2025-06-27 2025-07-27 NDP 88% OLP 12% 2025-07-27 2025-08-31 NDP 70% OLP 30% 2025-08-31 2025-10-21 NDP 80% OLP 20% 2025-10-21 2025-11-23 NDP 95% OLP 5% 2025-11-23 2025-12-20 NDP 98% OLP 2% 2025-12-20 2026-01-25 NDP 98% OLP 2% 2026-01-25 2026-02-18 NDP 98% OLP 2% 2026-02-18