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Ontario

Newmarket—Aurora


MPP: Gallagher Murphy, Dawn (PCPO)

Latest projection: December 15, 2024
Likely PCPO
Newmarket—Aurora 48% ± 9%▲ PCPO 30% ± 8%▼ OLP 12% ± 5% NDP 7% ± 4% GPO PCPO 2022 44.9% 338Canada Popular vote projection | December 15, 2024
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Newmarket—Aurora >99%▲ PCPO <1%▼ OLP <1% NDP Odds of winning | December 15, 2024
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).


Popular vote projection | Newmarket—Aurora

OLP 30% ± 8% PCPO 48% ± 9% NDP 12% ± 5% GPO 7% ± 4% Popular vote projection % | Newmarket—Aurora 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2022-05-01 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 2025-09-01 Election 2022 OLP PCPO NDP GPO December 15, 2024 2022-04-30 PCPO 44% OLP 37% NDP 12% GPO 3% 2022-04-30 2022-05-03 PCPO 41% OLP 35% NDP 16% GPO 3% 2022-05-03 2022-05-04 PCPO 41% OLP 35% NDP 16% GPO 3% 2022-05-04 2022-05-05 PCPO 42% OLP 35% NDP 16% GPO 3% 2022-05-05 2022-05-06 PCPO 42% OLP 35% NDP 16% GPO 3% 2022-05-06 2022-05-07 PCPO 41% OLP 35% NDP 16% GPO 3% 2022-05-07 2022-05-08 PCPO 41% OLP 35% NDP 16% GPO 3% 2022-05-08 2022-05-09 PCPO 41% OLP 36% NDP 15% GPO 3% 2022-05-09 2022-05-10 PCPO 41% OLP 37% NDP 15% GPO 3% 2022-05-10 2022-05-11 PCPO 42% OLP 35% NDP 15% GPO 3% 2022-05-11 2022-05-12 PCPO 42% OLP 35% NDP 15% GPO 3% 2022-05-12 2022-05-13 PCPO 42% OLP 35% NDP 15% GPO 3% 2022-05-13 2022-05-14 PCPO 42% OLP 35% NDP 15% GPO 3% 2022-05-14 2022-05-15 PCPO 42% OLP 34% NDP 16% GPO 3% 2022-05-15 2022-05-16 PCPO 41% OLP 35% NDP 16% GPO 3% 2022-05-16 2022-05-17 PCPO 41% OLP 35% NDP 15% GPO 3% 2022-05-17 2022-05-18 PCPO 41% OLP 35% NDP 15% GPO 3% 2022-05-18 2022-05-19 PCPO 41% OLP 34% NDP 15% GPO 4% 2022-05-19 2022-05-20 PCPO 40% OLP 34% NDP 17% GPO 4% 2022-05-20 2022-05-21 PCPO 41% OLP 33% NDP 17% GPO 4% 2022-05-21 2022-05-22 PCPO 40% OLP 34% NDP 17% GPO 4% 2022-05-22 2022-05-23 PCPO 41% OLP 33% NDP 16% GPO 4% 2022-05-23 2022-05-24 PCPO 41% OLP 33% NDP 16% GPO 4% 2022-05-24 2022-05-25 PCPO 41% OLP 33% NDP 16% GPO 4% 2022-05-25 2022-05-26 PCPO 41% OLP 33% NDP 16% GPO 4% 2022-05-26 2022-05-27 PCPO 40% OLP 33% NDP 17% GPO 4% 2022-05-27 2022-05-28 PCPO 41% OLP 33% NDP 16% GPO 4% 2022-05-28 2022-05-29 PCPO 41% OLP 33% NDP 16% GPO 4% 2022-05-29 2022-05-30 PCPO 41% OLP 33% NDP 16% GPO 4% 2022-05-30 2022-05-31 PCPO 42% OLP 33% NDP 16% GPO 4% 2022-05-31 2022-06-01 PCPO 45% OLP 31% NDP 15% GPO 4% 2022-06-01 2022-06-03 PCPO 45% OLP 31% NDP 13% GPO 6% 2022-06-03 2022-12-30 PCPO 45% OLP 31% NDP 13% GPO 6% 2022-12-30 2023-02-15 PCPO 44% OLP 32% NDP 12% GPO 6% 2023-02-15 2023-03-09 PCPO 44% OLP 33% NDP 12% GPO 6% 2023-03-09 2023-03-17 PCPO 44% OLP 33% NDP 12% GPO 6% 2023-03-17 2023-04-16 PCPO 44% OLP 32% NDP 12% GPO 6% 2023-04-16 2023-07-07 PCPO 40% OLP 32% NDP 13% GPO 9% 2023-07-07 2023-07-22 PCPO 40% OLP 33% NDP 13% GPO 8% 2023-07-22 2023-07-28 PCPO 41% OLP 32% NDP 13% GPO 8% 2023-07-28 2023-08-26 PCPO 42% OLP 32% NDP 13% GPO 8% 2023-08-26 2023-10-07 PCPO 39% OLP 34% NDP 14% GPO 8% 2023-10-07 2023-10-23 PCPO 41% OLP 32% NDP 13% GPO 8% 2023-10-23 2023-12-01 PCPO 44% OLP 31% NDP 13% GPO 7% 2023-12-01 2023-12-20 PCPO 43% OLP 33% NDP 13% GPO 7% 2023-12-20 2024-02-02 PCPO 42% OLP 34% NDP 13% GPO 7% 2024-02-02 2024-02-20 PCPO 41% OLP 36% NDP 12% GPO 7% 2024-02-20 2024-03-05 PCPO 42% OLP 35% NDP 12% GPO 7% 2024-03-05 2024-04-04 PCPO 43% OLP 33% NDP 12% GPO 7% 2024-04-04 2024-05-03 PCPO 44% OLP 33% NDP 12% GPO 7% 2024-05-03 2024-06-30 PCPO 45% OLP 31% NDP 12% GPO 7% 2024-06-30 2024-07-29 PCPO 46% OLP 31% NDP 11% GPO 7% 2024-07-29 2024-10-09 PCPO 45% OLP 32% NDP 12% GPO 7% 2024-10-09 2024-11-11 PCPO 45% OLP 31% NDP 12% GPO 7% 2024-11-11 2024-12-15 PCPO 48% OLP 30% NDP 12% GPO 7% 2024-12-15

Odds of winning | Newmarket—Aurora

OLP <1% PCPO >99% NDP <1% GPO <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2022-05-01 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 2025-09-01 Election 2022 OLP PCPO NDP GPO December 15, 2024 2022-04-30 PCPO 86% OLP 14% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2022-04-30 2022-05-03 PCPO 83% OLP 17% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2022-05-03 2022-05-04 PCPO 87% OLP 13% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2022-05-04 2022-05-05 PCPO 89% OLP 11% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2022-05-05 2022-05-06 PCPO 88% OLP 12% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2022-05-06 2022-05-07 PCPO 86% OLP 14% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2022-05-07 2022-05-08 PCPO 83% OLP 17% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2022-05-08 2022-05-09 PCPO 80% OLP 20% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2022-05-09 2022-05-10 PCPO 75% OLP 25% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2022-05-10 2022-05-11 PCPO 87% OLP 13% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2022-05-11 2022-05-12 PCPO 86% OLP 14% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2022-05-12 2022-05-13 PCPO 88% OLP 12% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2022-05-13 2022-05-14 PCPO 88% OLP 12% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2022-05-14 2022-05-15 PCPO 91% OLP 9% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2022-05-15 2022-05-16 PCPO 86% OLP 14% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2022-05-16 2022-05-17 PCPO 87% OLP 13% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2022-05-17 2022-05-18 PCPO 89% OLP 11% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2022-05-18 2022-05-19 PCPO 90% OLP 10% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2022-05-19 2022-05-20 PCPO 89% OLP 11% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2022-05-20 2022-05-21 PCPO 90% OLP 10% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2022-05-21 2022-05-22 PCPO 89% OLP 11% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2022-05-22 2022-05-23 PCPO 91% OLP 9% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2022-05-23 2022-05-24 PCPO 90% OLP 10% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2022-05-24 2022-05-25 PCPO 91% OLP 9% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2022-05-25 2022-05-26 PCPO 91% OLP 9% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2022-05-26 2022-05-27 PCPO 92% OLP 8% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2022-05-27 2022-05-28 PCPO 94% OLP 6% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2022-05-28 2022-05-29 PCPO 95% OLP 5% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2022-05-29 2022-05-30 PCPO 94% OLP 6% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2022-05-30 2022-05-31 PCPO 95% OLP 5% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2022-05-31 2022-06-01 PCPO 99% OLP 1% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2022-06-01 2022-06-03 PCPO >99% OLP <1% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2022-06-03 2022-12-30 PCPO 98% OLP 2% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2022-12-30 2023-02-15 PCPO 98% OLP 2% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2023-02-15 2023-03-09 PCPO 97% OLP 3% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2023-03-09 2023-03-17 PCPO 97% OLP 3% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2023-03-17 2023-04-16 PCPO 98% OLP 2% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2023-04-16 2023-07-07 PCPO 93% OLP 7% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2023-07-07 2023-07-22 PCPO 93% OLP 7% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2023-07-22 2023-07-28 PCPO 95% OLP 5% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2023-07-28 2023-08-26 PCPO 96% OLP 4% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2023-08-26 2023-10-07 PCPO 83% OLP 17% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2023-10-07 2023-10-23 PCPO 96% OLP 4% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2023-10-23 2023-12-01 PCPO 99% OLP 1% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2023-12-01 2023-12-20 PCPO 96% OLP 4% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2023-12-20 2024-02-02 PCPO 93% OLP 7% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2024-02-02 2024-02-20 PCPO 79% OLP 21% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2024-02-20 2024-03-05 PCPO 91% OLP 9% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2024-03-05 2024-04-04 PCPO 95% OLP 5% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2024-04-04 2024-05-03 PCPO 97% OLP 3% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2024-05-03 2024-06-30 PCPO 99% OLP 1% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2024-06-30 2024-07-29 PCPO >99% OLP <1% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2024-07-29 2024-10-09 PCPO 99% OLP 1% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2024-10-09 2024-11-11 PCPO 99% OLP 1% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2024-11-11 2024-12-15 PCPO >99% OLP <1% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2024-12-15

Recent electoral history | Newmarket—Aurora



2014 2018 2022 Proj. PCPO 36.7% 47.3% 44.9% 48% ± 9% OLP 44.1% 23.0% 31.4% 30% ± 8% NDP 11.9% 23.9% 12.7% 12% ± 5% GPO 4.0% 3.6% 5.6% 7% ± 4% NBPO 0.0% 0.0% 3.7% 2% ± 2% ONP 0.0% 0.0% 1.3% 1% ± 1%