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Ontario


Newmarket—Aurora


MPP: Gallagher Murphy, Dawn (PCPO)


Latest projection: March 5, 2024

Likely PCPO
Newmarket—Aurora 42% ± 9%▲ 35% ± 8%▼ 12% ± 5% 7% ± 4% 3% ± 2% PCPO 2022 44.9% 338Canada Popular vote projection | March 5, 2024
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by profesional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.

50% 100% Newmarket—Aurora 91%▲ 9%▼ <1% Odds of winning | March 5, 2024
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).


Popular vote projection | Newmarket—Aurora

OLP 35% ± 8% PCPO 42% ± 9% NDP 12% ± 5% GPO 7% ± 4% Popular vote projection % | Newmarket—Aurora 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2022-07-01 2022-10-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-04-01 2023-07-01 2023-10-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-04-01 2024-07-01 2024-10-01 Election 2022 OLP PCPO NDP GPO

Odds of winning | Newmarket—Aurora

OLP 9% PCPO 91% NDP <1% GPO <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2022-07-01 2022-10-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-04-01 2023-07-01 2023-10-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-04-01 2024-07-01 2024-10-01 Election 2022 OLP PCPO NDP GPO

Recent electoral history | Newmarket—Aurora



2014 2018 2022 Proj. PCPO 36.7% 47.3% 44.9% 42% ± 9% OLP 44.1% 23.0% 31.4% 35% ± 8% NDP 11.9% 23.9% 12.7% 12% ± 5% GPO 4.0% 3.6% 5.6% 7% ± 4% NBPO 0.0% 0.0% 3.7% 3% ± 2% ONP 0.0% 0.0% 1.3% 1% ± 1%