Newmarket—Aurora
Latest update: February 18, 2026
PC
MPP: Dawn Gallagher Murphy
Ontario PC
Projection — Newmarket—Aurora
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Recent electoral history | Newmarket—Aurora
338Canada Newmarket—Aurora projection
Latest update: February 18, 2026
Methodology note.
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
Methodology note.
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of simulated elections.