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Ontario

Newmarket—Aurora


MPP elect: Dawn Gallagher Murphy (PCPO)
Latest projection: February 28, 2025
Likely PCPO

Candidates | Newmarket—Aurora


PC Party of Ontario Dawn Gallagher Murphy
Liberal Party Chris Ballard
Ontario NDP Denis Heng
Green Party David Jakubiec
New Blue Party Shirin Khasbakhi
Moderate Party Yuri Duboisky

Candidates listed here are on the Elections Ontario website.

Newmarket—Aurora 47% ± 0%▼ PCPO 42% ± 0%▲ OLP 6% ± 0%▼ NDP PCPO 2022 44.9% 338Canada Popular vote projection | February 28, 2025
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Newmarket—Aurora 91%▼ PCPO 9%▲ OLP <1% NDP Odds of winning | February 28, 2025
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).


Popular vote projection | Newmarket—Aurora

OLP 42% ± 0% PCPO 47% ± 0% NDP 6% ± 0% Popular vote projection % | Newmarket—Aurora 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2025-02-01 2025-02-15 2025-03-01 Election 2025 Campaign begins OLP PCPO NDP February 28, 2025 2025-01-27 PCPO 45% OLP 33% NDP 12% 2025-01-27 2025-01-29 PCPO 45% OLP 33% NDP 12% 2025-01-29 2025-01-31 PCPO 48% OLP 32% NDP 12% 2025-01-31 2025-02-02 PCPO 48% OLP 32% NDP 12% 2025-02-02 2025-02-03 PCPO 48% OLP 32% NDP 12% 2025-02-03 2025-02-04 PCPO 48% OLP 33% NDP 11% 2025-02-04 2025-02-05 PCPO 48% OLP 33% NDP 11% 2025-02-05 2025-02-06 PCPO 49% OLP 32% NDP 11% 2025-02-06 2025-02-07 PCPO 49% OLP 32% NDP 11% 2025-02-07 2025-02-08 PCPO 46% OLP 35% NDP 11% 2025-02-08 2025-02-09 PCPO 46% OLP 34% NDP 11% 2025-02-09 2025-02-10 PCPO 46% OLP 34% NDP 11% 2025-02-10 2025-02-11 PCPO 46% OLP 35% NDP 10% 2025-02-11 2025-02-12 PCPO 46% OLP 35% NDP 10% 2025-02-12 2025-02-13 PCPO 47% OLP 35% NDP 10% 2025-02-13 2025-02-14 PCPO 47% OLP 36% NDP 10% 2025-02-14 2025-02-15 PCPO 47% OLP 35% NDP 10% 2025-02-15 2025-02-16 PCPO 47% OLP 35% NDP 10% 2025-02-16 2025-02-17 PCPO 46% OLP 36% NDP 10% 2025-02-17 2025-02-18 PCPO 46% OLP 36% NDP 10% 2025-02-18 2025-02-19 PCPO 47% OLP 36% NDP 10% 2025-02-19 2025-02-20 PCPO 47% OLP 35% NDP 10% 2025-02-20 2025-02-21 PCPO 47% OLP 36% NDP 10% 2025-02-21 2025-02-22 PCPO 47% OLP 35% NDP 10% 2025-02-22 2025-02-23 PCPO 47% OLP 35% NDP 10% 2025-02-23 2025-02-24 PCPO 47% OLP 35% NDP 10% 2025-02-24 2025-02-25 PCPO 47% OLP 35% NDP 10% 2025-02-25 2025-02-26 PCPO 48% OLP 35% NDP 9% 2025-02-26 2025-02-27 PCPO 48% OLP 35% NDP 9% 2025-02-27 2025-02-28 PCPO 47% OLP 42% NDP 6% 2025-02-28

Odds of winning | Newmarket—Aurora

OLP 9% PCPO 91% NDP <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2025-02-01 2025-02-15 2025-03-01 Election 2025 Campaign begins OLP PCPO NDP February 28, 2025 2025-01-27 PCPO 97% OLP 3% NDP <1% 2025-01-27 2025-01-29 PCPO 98% OLP 2% NDP <1% 2025-01-29 2025-01-31 PCPO >99% OLP <1% NDP <1% 2025-01-31 2025-02-02 PCPO >99% OLP <1% NDP <1% 2025-02-02 2025-02-03 PCPO 99% OLP 1% NDP <1% 2025-02-03 2025-02-04 PCPO 99% OLP 1% NDP <1% 2025-02-04 2025-02-05 PCPO 99% OLP 1% NDP <1% 2025-02-05 2025-02-06 PCPO >99% OLP <1% NDP <1% 2025-02-06 2025-02-07 PCPO >99% OLP <1% NDP <1% 2025-02-07 2025-02-08 PCPO 97% OLP 3% NDP <1% 2025-02-08 2025-02-09 PCPO 99% OLP 1% NDP <1% 2025-02-09 2025-02-10 PCPO 98% OLP 2% NDP <1% 2025-02-10 2025-02-11 PCPO 98% OLP 2% NDP <1% 2025-02-11 2025-02-12 PCPO 97% OLP 3% NDP <1% 2025-02-12 2025-02-13 PCPO 97% OLP 3% NDP <1% 2025-02-13 2025-02-14 PCPO 97% OLP 3% NDP <1% 2025-02-14 2025-02-15 PCPO 98% OLP 2% NDP <1% 2025-02-15 2025-02-16 PCPO 98% OLP 2% NDP <1% 2025-02-16 2025-02-17 PCPO 95% OLP 5% NDP <1% 2025-02-17 2025-02-18 PCPO 95% OLP 5% NDP <1% 2025-02-18 2025-02-19 PCPO 97% OLP 3% NDP <1% 2025-02-19 2025-02-20 PCPO 97% OLP 3% NDP <1% 2025-02-20 2025-02-21 PCPO 97% OLP 3% NDP <1% 2025-02-21 2025-02-22 PCPO 98% OLP 2% NDP <1% 2025-02-22 2025-02-23 PCPO 98% OLP 2% NDP <1% 2025-02-23 2025-02-24 PCPO 97% OLP 3% NDP <1% 2025-02-24 2025-02-25 PCPO 97% OLP 3% NDP <1% 2025-02-25 2025-02-26 PCPO 98% OLP 2% NDP <1% 2025-02-26 2025-02-27 PCPO 98% OLP 2% NDP <1% 2025-02-27 2025-02-28 PCPO 91% OLP 9% NDP <1% 2025-02-28

Recent electoral history | Newmarket—Aurora



2014 2018 2022 Proj. PCPO 36.7% 47.3% 44.9% 47% ± 0% OLP 44.1% 23.0% 31.4% 42% ± 0% NDP 11.9% 23.9% 12.7% 6% ± 0% GPO 4.0% 3.6% 5.6% 2% ± 0% NBPO 0.0% 0.0% 3.7% 1% ± 0%