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Ontario

Ottawa, 8 districts


Latest update: January 20, 2025
Ottawa 36% ± 7%▲ OLP 31% ± 6%▼ PCPO 25% ± 5% NDP 6% ± 2% GPO 338Canada Popular vote projection | January 20, 2025
This projection is calculated using a weighted average of polls by the 338Canada model to estimate current party support. This is not a poll, but the result of an aggregation of polls and modelization of various data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
Ottawa, 8 districts 3 [3-4] OLP 3▼ [2-4] PCPO 2▲ [1-2] NDP 0 [0-0] GPO 338Canada seat projection | January 20, 2025
The seat projections are a forecast of the most likely results if a general election were held today. The brackets indicate the current ranges from worst to best possible outcomes. The distributions follow Gaussian-like curves, so the extremes are not as likely as the values near the mean. Does it work? See 338Canada's full record here.

Popular vote projection | Ottawa

OLP 36% ± 7% PCPO 31% ± 6% NDP 25% ± 5% GPO 6% ± 2% Popular vote projection % | Ottawa 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2022-05-01 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 2025-09-01 Election 2022 OLP PCPO NDP GPO January 20, 2025 2022-04-30 OLP 44% PCPO 32% NDP 16% GPO 3% 2022-04-30 2022-05-03 OLP 42% PCPO 30% NDP 20% GPO 3% 2022-05-03 2022-05-04 OLP 41% PCPO 30% NDP 21% GPO 3% 2022-05-04 2022-05-05 OLP 41% PCPO 30% NDP 21% GPO 3% 2022-05-05 2022-05-06 OLP 40% PCPO 31% NDP 21% GPO 3% 2022-05-06 2022-05-07 OLP 41% PCPO 30% NDP 21% GPO 3% 2022-05-07 2022-05-08 OLP 41% PCPO 30% NDP 21% GPO 3% 2022-05-08 2022-05-09 OLP 41% PCPO 30% NDP 21% GPO 3% 2022-05-09 2022-05-10 OLP 41% PCPO 29% NDP 22% GPO 3% 2022-05-10 2022-05-11 OLP 40% PCPO 31% NDP 22% GPO 3% 2022-05-11 2022-05-12 OLP 40% PCPO 31% NDP 22% GPO 3% 2022-05-12 2022-05-13 OLP 40% PCPO 31% NDP 22% GPO 3% 2022-05-13 2022-05-14 OLP 40% PCPO 31% NDP 22% GPO 3% 2022-05-14 2022-05-15 OLP 39% PCPO 31% NDP 22% GPO 3% 2022-05-15 2022-05-16 OLP 40% PCPO 31% NDP 22% GPO 3% 2022-05-16 2022-05-17 OLP 41% PCPO 31% NDP 21% GPO 3% 2022-05-17 2022-05-18 OLP 41% PCPO 31% NDP 21% GPO 3% 2022-05-18 2022-05-19 OLP 40% PCPO 30% NDP 21% GPO 4% 2022-05-19 2022-05-20 OLP 39% PCPO 30% NDP 22% GPO 4% 2022-05-20 2022-05-21 OLP 39% PCPO 30% NDP 22% GPO 4% 2022-05-21 2022-05-22 OLP 39% PCPO 30% NDP 22% GPO 4% 2022-05-22 2022-05-23 OLP 39% PCPO 30% NDP 22% GPO 4% 2022-05-23 2022-05-24 OLP 39% PCPO 30% NDP 22% GPO 4% 2022-05-24 2022-05-25 OLP 39% PCPO 30% NDP 21% GPO 4% 2022-05-25 2022-05-26 OLP 39% PCPO 30% NDP 21% GPO 4% 2022-05-26 2022-05-27 OLP 38% PCPO 30% NDP 22% GPO 4% 2022-05-27 2022-05-28 OLP 38% PCPO 31% NDP 21% GPO 4% 2022-05-28 2022-05-29 OLP 38% PCPO 31% NDP 21% GPO 4% 2022-05-29 2022-05-30 OLP 38% PCPO 31% NDP 21% GPO 4% 2022-05-30 2022-05-31 OLP 38% PCPO 32% NDP 21% GPO 4% 2022-05-31 2022-06-01 OLP 37% PCPO 34% NDP 21% GPO 4% 2022-06-01 2022-06-03 OLP 33% PCPO 32% NDP 27% GPO 5% 2022-06-03 2022-12-30 OLP 33% PCPO 31% NDP 27% GPO 5% 2022-12-30 2023-02-15 OLP 34% PCPO 31% NDP 25% GPO 6% 2023-02-15 2023-03-09 OLP 35% PCPO 31% NDP 25% GPO 6% 2023-03-09 2023-03-17 OLP 35% PCPO 31% NDP 25% GPO 6% 2023-03-17 2023-04-16 OLP 34% PCPO 31% NDP 26% GPO 6% 2023-04-16 2023-07-07 OLP 34% PCPO 28% NDP 27% GPO 8% 2023-07-07 2023-07-22 OLP 35% PCPO 28% NDP 27% GPO 7% 2023-07-22 2023-07-28 OLP 35% PCPO 28% NDP 27% GPO 6% 2023-07-28 2023-08-26 OLP 35% PCPO 28% NDP 27% GPO 6% 2023-08-26 2023-10-07 OLP 36% NDP 28% PCPO 26% GPO 6% 2023-10-07 2023-10-23 OLP 35% PCPO 28% NDP 28% GPO 6% 2023-10-23 2023-12-01 OLP 34% PCPO 30% NDP 27% GPO 6% 2023-12-01 2023-12-20 OLP 36% PCPO 29% NDP 27% GPO 6% 2023-12-20 2024-02-02 OLP 37% PCPO 29% NDP 26% GPO 6% 2024-02-02 2024-02-20 OLP 39% PCPO 27% NDP 25% GPO 6% 2024-02-20 2024-03-05 OLP 38% PCPO 29% NDP 24% GPO 6% 2024-03-05 2024-04-04 OLP 36% PCPO 30% NDP 25% GPO 6% 2024-04-04 2024-05-03 OLP 36% PCPO 31% NDP 25% GPO 6% 2024-05-03 2024-06-30 OLP 34% PCPO 32% NDP 25% GPO 6% 2024-06-30 2024-07-29 OLP 34% PCPO 33% NDP 24% GPO 6% 2024-07-29 2024-10-09 OLP 35% PCPO 32% NDP 25% GPO 6% 2024-10-09 2024-11-11 OLP 35% PCPO 32% NDP 24% GPO 6% 2024-11-11 2024-12-15 OLP 35% PCPO 33% NDP 25% GPO 6% 2024-12-15 2025-01-20 OLP 36% PCPO 31% NDP 25% GPO 6% 2025-01-20 Stiles NDP leader Crombie OLP leader

Seat projection | Ottawa

OLP 3 [3-4] PCPO 3 [2-4] NDP 2 [1-2] Seat projection | Ottawa 5 4 3 2 1 2022-05-01 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 2025-09-01 Election 2022 OLP PCPO NDP January 20, 2025 2022-04-30 OLP 5 PCPO 3 NDP 0 2022-04-30 2022-05-03 OLP 5 PCPO 3 NDP 0 2022-05-03 2022-05-04 OLP 5 PCPO 3 NDP 0 2022-05-04 2022-05-05 OLP 5 PCPO 3 NDP 0 2022-05-05 2022-05-06 OLP 5 PCPO 3 NDP 0 2022-05-06 2022-05-07 OLP 5 PCPO 3 NDP 0 2022-05-07 2022-05-08 OLP 5 PCPO 3 NDP 0 2022-05-08 2022-05-09 OLP 5 PCPO 3 NDP 0 2022-05-09 2022-05-10 OLP 5 PCPO 3 NDP 0 2022-05-10 2022-05-11 OLP 5 PCPO 3 NDP 0 2022-05-11 2022-05-12 OLP 5 PCPO 3 NDP 0 2022-05-12 2022-05-13 OLP 5 PCPO 3 NDP 0 2022-05-13 2022-05-14 OLP 5 PCPO 3 NDP 0 2022-05-14 2022-05-15 OLP 5 PCPO 3 NDP 0 2022-05-15 2022-05-16 OLP 5 PCPO 3 NDP 0 2022-05-16 2022-05-17 OLP 5 PCPO 3 NDP 0 2022-05-17 2022-05-18 OLP 5 PCPO 3 NDP 0 2022-05-18 2022-05-19 OLP 5 PCPO 3 NDP 0 2022-05-19 2022-05-20 OLP 5 PCPO 3 NDP 0 2022-05-20 2022-05-21 OLP 5 PCPO 3 NDP 0 2022-05-21 2022-05-22 OLP 5 PCPO 3 NDP 0 2022-05-22 2022-05-23 OLP 5 PCPO 3 NDP 0 2022-05-23 2022-05-24 OLP 5 PCPO 3 NDP 0 2022-05-24 2022-05-25 OLP 5 PCPO 3 NDP 0 2022-05-25 2022-05-26 OLP 5 PCPO 3 NDP 0 2022-05-26 2022-05-27 OLP 4 PCPO 3 NDP 1 2022-05-27 2022-05-28 PCPO 4 OLP 3 NDP 1 2022-05-28 2022-05-29 PCPO 4 OLP 3 NDP 1 2022-05-29 2022-05-30 OLP 4 PCPO 3 NDP 1 2022-05-30 2022-05-31 OLP 4 PCPO 3 NDP 1 2022-05-31 2022-06-01 OLP 4 PCPO 3 NDP 1 2022-06-01 2022-06-03 OLP 3 PCPO 3 NDP 2 2022-06-03 2022-12-30 OLP 3 PCPO 3 NDP 2 2022-12-30 2023-02-15 PCPO 4 OLP 3 NDP 1 2023-02-15 2023-03-09 PCPO 4 OLP 3 NDP 1 2023-03-09 2023-03-17 OLP 3 PCPO 3 NDP 2 2023-03-17 2023-04-16 OLP 3 PCPO 3 NDP 2 2023-04-16 2023-07-07 OLP 3 PCPO 3 NDP 2 2023-07-07 2023-07-22 OLP 3 PCPO 3 NDP 2 2023-07-22 2023-07-28 OLP 4 PCPO 2 NDP 2 2023-07-28 2023-08-26 OLP 4 PCPO 2 NDP 2 2023-08-26 2023-10-07 OLP 5 NDP 2 PCPO 1 2023-10-07 2023-10-23 OLP 4 PCPO 2 NDP 2 2023-10-23 2023-12-01 OLP 3 PCPO 3 NDP 2 2023-12-01 2023-12-20 OLP 4 PCPO 2 NDP 2 2023-12-20 2024-02-02 OLP 4 PCPO 2 NDP 2 2024-02-02 2024-02-20 OLP 5 NDP 2 PCPO 1 2024-02-20 2024-03-05 OLP 4 PCPO 2 NDP 2 2024-03-05 2024-04-04 OLP 3 PCPO 3 NDP 2 2024-04-04 2024-05-03 OLP 3 PCPO 3 NDP 2 2024-05-03 2024-06-30 OLP 3 PCPO 3 NDP 2 2024-06-30 2024-07-29 PCPO 4 OLP 3 NDP 1 2024-07-29 2024-10-09 PCPO 4 OLP 3 NDP 1 2024-10-09 2024-11-11 PCPO 4 OLP 3 NDP 1 2024-11-11 2024-12-15 PCPO 4 OLP 3 NDP 1 2024-12-15 2025-01-20 OLP 3 PCPO 3 NDP 2 2025-01-20 Stiles NDP leader Crombie OLP leader

Seat projection | Ottawa


Latest update: January 20, 2025
Safe Likely Leaning Toss up Projected ahead Last election (2022)
2 1 0 0 3 3
0 2 0 1 3 3
1 0 0 1 2 2
0 0 0 0 0 0

List of electoral districts | Ottawa


Latest update: January 20, 2025
Electoral district Current party Latest projection
017 Carleton Likely PCPO
043 Kanata—Carleton Likely PCPO
068 Nepean Toss up OLP/PCPO
078 Orléans Likely OLP
080 Ottawa Centre Safe NDP
081 Ottawa South Safe OLP
082 Ottawa West—Nepean Toss up PCPO/NDP
083 Ottawa—Vanier Safe OLP