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Ontario

Ottawa, 8 districts


Latest update: January 27, 2025
Ottawa 35% ± 7%▲ OLP 33% ± 7%▼ PCPO 25% ± 6%▲ NDP 6% ± 3% GPO 338Canada Popular vote projection | January 27, 2025
This projection is calculated using a weighted average of polls by the 338Canada model to estimate current party support. This is not a poll, but the result of an aggregation of polls and modelization of various data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
Ottawa, 8 districts 4 [3-4] PCPO 3 [3-4] OLP 1 [1-2] NDP 0 [0-0] GPO 338Canada seat projection | January 27, 2025
The seat projections are a forecast of the most likely results if a general election were held today. The brackets indicate the current ranges from worst to best possible outcomes. The distributions follow Gaussian-like curves, so the extremes are not as likely as the values near the mean. Does it work? See 338Canada's full record here.

Popular vote projection | Ottawa

OLP 35% ± 7% PCPO 33% ± 7% NDP 25% ± 6% GPO 6% ± 3% Popular vote projection % | Ottawa 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 2025-09-01 Election 2025 OLP PCPO NDP GPO January 27, 2025 2023-03-09 OLP 35% PCPO 31% NDP 25% GPO 6% 2023-03-09 2023-03-17 OLP 35% PCPO 31% NDP 25% GPO 6% 2023-03-17 2023-04-16 OLP 34% PCPO 31% NDP 26% GPO 6% 2023-04-16 2023-07-07 OLP 34% PCPO 28% NDP 27% GPO 8% 2023-07-07 2023-07-22 OLP 35% PCPO 28% NDP 27% GPO 7% 2023-07-22 2023-07-28 OLP 35% PCPO 28% NDP 27% GPO 6% 2023-07-28 2023-08-26 OLP 35% PCPO 28% NDP 27% GPO 6% 2023-08-26 2023-10-07 OLP 36% NDP 28% PCPO 26% GPO 6% 2023-10-07 2023-10-23 OLP 35% PCPO 28% NDP 28% GPO 6% 2023-10-23 2023-12-01 OLP 34% PCPO 30% NDP 27% GPO 6% 2023-12-01 2023-12-20 OLP 36% PCPO 29% NDP 27% GPO 6% 2023-12-20 2024-02-02 OLP 37% PCPO 29% NDP 26% GPO 6% 2024-02-02 2024-02-20 OLP 39% PCPO 27% NDP 25% GPO 6% 2024-02-20 2024-03-05 OLP 38% PCPO 29% NDP 24% GPO 6% 2024-03-05 2024-04-04 OLP 36% PCPO 30% NDP 25% GPO 6% 2024-04-04 2024-05-03 OLP 36% PCPO 31% NDP 25% GPO 6% 2024-05-03 2024-06-30 OLP 34% PCPO 32% NDP 25% GPO 6% 2024-06-30 2024-07-29 OLP 34% PCPO 33% NDP 24% GPO 6% 2024-07-29 2024-10-09 OLP 35% PCPO 32% NDP 25% GPO 6% 2024-10-09 2024-11-11 OLP 35% PCPO 32% NDP 24% GPO 6% 2024-11-11 2024-12-15 OLP 35% PCPO 33% NDP 25% GPO 6% 2024-12-15 2025-01-20 OLP 36% PCPO 31% NDP 25% GPO 6% 2025-01-20 2025-01-24 PCPO 36% OLP 33% NDP 23% GPO 6% 2025-01-24 2025-01-27 OLP 35% PCPO 33% NDP 25% GPO 6% 2025-01-27 Crombie OLP leader

Seat projection | Ottawa

OLP 3 [3-4] PCPO 4 [3-4] NDP 1 [1-2] Seat projection | Ottawa 5 4 3 2 1 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 2025-09-01 Election 2025 OLP PCPO NDP January 27, 2025 2023-03-09 PCPO 4 OLP 3 NDP 1 2023-03-09 2023-03-17 OLP 3 PCPO 3 NDP 2 2023-03-17 2023-04-16 OLP 3 PCPO 3 NDP 2 2023-04-16 2023-07-07 OLP 3 PCPO 3 NDP 2 2023-07-07 2023-07-22 OLP 3 PCPO 3 NDP 2 2023-07-22 2023-07-28 OLP 4 PCPO 2 NDP 2 2023-07-28 2023-08-26 OLP 4 PCPO 2 NDP 2 2023-08-26 2023-10-07 OLP 5 NDP 2 PCPO 1 2023-10-07 2023-10-23 OLP 4 PCPO 2 NDP 2 2023-10-23 2023-12-01 OLP 3 PCPO 3 NDP 2 2023-12-01 2023-12-20 OLP 4 PCPO 2 NDP 2 2023-12-20 2024-02-02 OLP 4 PCPO 2 NDP 2 2024-02-02 2024-02-20 OLP 5 NDP 2 PCPO 1 2024-02-20 2024-03-05 OLP 4 PCPO 2 NDP 2 2024-03-05 2024-04-04 OLP 3 PCPO 3 NDP 2 2024-04-04 2024-05-03 OLP 3 PCPO 3 NDP 2 2024-05-03 2024-06-30 OLP 3 PCPO 3 NDP 2 2024-06-30 2024-07-29 PCPO 4 OLP 3 NDP 1 2024-07-29 2024-10-09 PCPO 4 OLP 3 NDP 1 2024-10-09 2024-11-11 PCPO 4 OLP 3 NDP 1 2024-11-11 2024-12-15 PCPO 4 OLP 3 NDP 1 2024-12-15 2025-01-20 OLP 3 PCPO 3 NDP 2 2025-01-20 2025-01-24 PCPO 4 OLP 3 NDP 1 2025-01-24 2025-01-27 PCPO 4 OLP 3 NDP 1 2025-01-27 Crombie OLP leader

Seat projection | Ottawa


Latest update: January 27, 2025
Safe Likely Leaning Toss up Projected ahead Last election (2022)
1 0 2 1 4 3
2 1 0 0 3 3
1 0 0 0 1 2
0 0 0 0 0 0

List of electoral districts | Ottawa


Latest update: January 27, 2025
Electoral district Current party Latest projection
017 Carleton Safe PCPO
043 Kanata—Carleton Leaning PCPO
068 Nepean Leaning PCPO
078 Orléans Likely OLP
080 Ottawa Centre Safe NDP
081 Ottawa South Safe OLP
082 Ottawa West—Nepean Toss up PCPO/NDP
083 Ottawa—Vanier Safe OLP