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Ontario

Davenport


MPP: Stiles, Marit (NDP)
Latest projection: February 20, 2025
Safe NDP

Candidates | Davenport


PC Party of Ontario Nick Pavlov
Liberal Party Paulo Pereira
Ontario NDP Marit Stiles
Green Party Randi Ramdeen
Communist Parti Dave Mckee

Candidates listed here are on the Elections Ontario website.

Davenport 49% ± 9%▲ NDP 23% ± 7% OLP 20% ± 7% PCPO 6% ± 4% GPO NDP 2022 57.1% 338Canada Popular vote projection | February 20, 2025
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Davenport >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% PCPO Odds of winning | February 20, 2025
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).


Popular vote projection | Davenport

OLP 23% ± 7% PCPO 20% ± 7% NDP 49% ± 9% GPO 6% ± 4% Popular vote projection % | Davenport 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2025-02-01 2025-02-15 2025-03-01 Election 2025 Campaign begins OLP PCPO NDP GPO February 20, 2025 2025-01-27 NDP 51% OLP 22% PCPO 16% GPO 6% 2025-01-27 2025-01-29 NDP 51% OLP 22% PCPO 16% GPO 6% 2025-01-29 2025-01-31 NDP 51% OLP 21% PCPO 19% GPO 6% 2025-01-31 2025-02-02 NDP 51% OLP 21% PCPO 19% GPO 6% 2025-02-02 2025-02-03 NDP 51% OLP 21% PCPO 19% GPO 6% 2025-02-03 2025-02-04 NDP 50% OLP 22% PCPO 19% GPO 6% 2025-02-04 2025-02-05 NDP 50% OLP 22% PCPO 19% GPO 6% 2025-02-05 2025-02-06 NDP 50% OLP 22% PCPO 20% GPO 6% 2025-02-06 2025-02-07 NDP 50% OLP 22% PCPO 20% GPO 6% 2025-02-07 2025-02-08 NDP 50% OLP 22% PCPO 19% GPO 6% 2025-02-08 2025-02-09 NDP 51% OLP 21% PCPO 19% GPO 6% 2025-02-09 2025-02-10 NDP 50% OLP 21% PCPO 19% GPO 6% 2025-02-10 2025-02-11 NDP 49% OLP 22% PCPO 20% GPO 6% 2025-02-11 2025-02-12 NDP 48% OLP 23% PCPO 20% GPO 6% 2025-02-12 2025-02-13 NDP 49% OLP 23% PCPO 20% GPO 6% 2025-02-13 2025-02-14 NDP 49% OLP 23% PCPO 20% GPO 6% 2025-02-14 2025-02-15 NDP 48% OLP 23% PCPO 20% GPO 6% 2025-02-15 2025-02-16 NDP 48% OLP 23% PCPO 20% GPO 6% 2025-02-16 2025-02-17 NDP 49% OLP 23% PCPO 19% GPO 6% 2025-02-17 2025-02-18 NDP 49% OLP 23% PCPO 20% GPO 6% 2025-02-18 2025-02-19 NDP 48% OLP 23% PCPO 20% GPO 6% 2025-02-19 2025-02-20 NDP 49% OLP 23% PCPO 20% GPO 6% 2025-02-20

Odds of winning | Davenport

OLP <1% NDP >99% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2025-02-01 2025-02-15 2025-03-01 Election 2025 Campaign begins OLP NDP February 20, 2025 2025-01-27 NDP >99% OLP <1% 2025-01-27 2025-01-29 NDP >99% OLP <1% 2025-01-29 2025-01-31 NDP >99% OLP <1% 2025-01-31 2025-02-02 NDP >99% OLP <1% 2025-02-02 2025-02-03 NDP >99% OLP <1% 2025-02-03 2025-02-04 NDP >99% OLP <1% 2025-02-04 2025-02-05 NDP >99% OLP <1% 2025-02-05 2025-02-06 NDP >99% OLP <1% 2025-02-06 2025-02-07 NDP >99% OLP <1% 2025-02-07 2025-02-08 NDP >99% OLP <1% 2025-02-08 2025-02-09 NDP >99% OLP <1% 2025-02-09 2025-02-10 NDP >99% OLP <1% 2025-02-10 2025-02-11 NDP >99% OLP <1% 2025-02-11 2025-02-12 NDP >99% OLP <1% 2025-02-12 2025-02-13 NDP >99% OLP <1% 2025-02-13 2025-02-14 NDP >99% OLP <1% 2025-02-14 2025-02-15 NDP >99% OLP <1% 2025-02-15 2025-02-16 NDP >99% OLP <1% 2025-02-16 2025-02-17 NDP >99% OLP <1% 2025-02-17 2025-02-18 NDP >99% OLP <1% 2025-02-18 2025-02-19 NDP >99% OLP <1% 2025-02-19 2025-02-20 NDP >99% OLP <1% 2025-02-20

Recent electoral history | Davenport



2014 2018 2022 Proj. NDP 40.1% 60.3% 57.1% 49% ± 9% OLP 45.6% 18.7% 19.2% 23% ± 7% PCPO 7.5% 16.1% 14.1% 20% ± 7% GPO 5.0% 3.6% 4.8% 6% ± 4%