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Ontario

Davenport


MPP: Stiles, Marit (NDP)

Latest projection: December 15, 2024
Safe NDP
Davenport 53% ± 9%▲ NDP 21% ± 7%▼ OLP 15% ± 6% PCPO 6% ± 4%▼ GPO NDP 2022 57.1% 338Canada Popular vote projection | December 15, 2024
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Davenport >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% PCPO Odds of winning | December 15, 2024
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).


Popular vote projection | Davenport

OLP 21% ± 7% PCPO 15% ± 6% NDP 53% ± 9% GPO 6% ± 4% Popular vote projection % | Davenport 65 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2022-05-01 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 2025-09-01 Election 2022 OLP PCPO NDP GPO December 15, 2024 2022-04-30 NDP 46% OLP 29% PCPO 15% GPO 5% 2022-04-30 2022-05-03 NDP 46% OLP 28% PCPO 15% GPO 5% 2022-05-03 2022-05-04 NDP 45% OLP 29% PCPO 15% GPO 5% 2022-05-04 2022-05-05 NDP 45% OLP 29% PCPO 15% GPO 5% 2022-05-05 2022-05-06 NDP 45% OLP 29% PCPO 15% GPO 5% 2022-05-06 2022-05-07 NDP 45% OLP 29% PCPO 15% GPO 5% 2022-05-07 2022-05-08 NDP 45% OLP 29% PCPO 15% GPO 5% 2022-05-08 2022-05-09 NDP 45% OLP 30% PCPO 15% GPO 5% 2022-05-09 2022-05-10 NDP 45% OLP 30% PCPO 15% GPO 5% 2022-05-10 2022-05-11 NDP 45% OLP 29% PCPO 15% GPO 5% 2022-05-11 2022-05-12 NDP 45% OLP 29% PCPO 15% GPO 5% 2022-05-12 2022-05-13 NDP 44% OLP 29% PCPO 15% GPO 5% 2022-05-13 2022-05-14 NDP 44% OLP 29% PCPO 15% GPO 5% 2022-05-14 2022-05-15 NDP 44% OLP 29% PCPO 15% GPO 5% 2022-05-15 2022-05-16 NDP 44% OLP 29% PCPO 15% GPO 5% 2022-05-16 2022-05-17 NDP 42% OLP 31% PCPO 15% GPO 5% 2022-05-17 2022-05-18 NDP 40% OLP 32% PCPO 15% GPO 5% 2022-05-18 2022-05-19 NDP 39% OLP 32% PCPO 15% GPO 7% 2022-05-19 2022-05-20 NDP 40% OLP 31% PCPO 15% GPO 7% 2022-05-20 2022-05-21 NDP 40% OLP 31% PCPO 15% GPO 7% 2022-05-21 2022-05-22 NDP 40% OLP 31% PCPO 15% GPO 7% 2022-05-22 2022-05-23 NDP 40% OLP 31% PCPO 15% GPO 7% 2022-05-23 2022-05-24 NDP 40% OLP 31% PCPO 15% GPO 7% 2022-05-24 2022-05-25 NDP 39% OLP 31% PCPO 15% GPO 7% 2022-05-25 2022-05-26 NDP 39% OLP 31% PCPO 15% GPO 7% 2022-05-26 2022-05-27 NDP 39% OLP 30% PCPO 15% GPO 7% 2022-05-27 2022-05-28 NDP 38% OLP 31% PCPO 16% GPO 7% 2022-05-28 2022-05-29 NDP 38% OLP 31% PCPO 16% GPO 7% 2022-05-29 2022-05-30 NDP 41% OLP 30% PCPO 16% GPO 6% 2022-05-30 2022-05-31 NDP 41% OLP 30% PCPO 16% GPO 6% 2022-05-31 2022-06-01 NDP 41% OLP 30% PCPO 16% GPO 6% 2022-06-01 2022-06-03 NDP 57% OLP 19% PCPO 14% GPO 5% 2022-06-03 2022-12-30 NDP 57% OLP 19% PCPO 14% GPO 5% 2022-12-30 2023-02-15 NDP 55% OLP 20% PCPO 14% GPO 6% 2023-02-15 2023-03-09 NDP 54% OLP 21% PCPO 14% GPO 6% 2023-03-09 2023-03-17 NDP 54% OLP 21% PCPO 14% GPO 5% 2023-03-17 2023-04-16 NDP 55% OLP 20% PCPO 14% GPO 5% 2023-04-16 2023-07-07 NDP 57% OLP 19% PCPO 12% GPO 7% 2023-07-07 2023-07-22 NDP 57% OLP 20% PCPO 12% GPO 7% 2023-07-22 2023-07-28 NDP 57% OLP 20% PCPO 12% GPO 7% 2023-07-28 2023-08-26 NDP 56% OLP 20% PCPO 12% GPO 7% 2023-08-26 2023-10-07 NDP 57% OLP 20% PCPO 11% GPO 6% 2023-10-07 2023-10-23 NDP 57% OLP 19% PCPO 12% GPO 6% 2023-10-23 2023-12-01 NDP 57% OLP 19% PCPO 13% GPO 6% 2023-12-01 2023-12-20 NDP 56% OLP 21% PCPO 13% GPO 6% 2023-12-20 2024-02-02 NDP 55% OLP 21% PCPO 13% GPO 6% 2024-02-02 2024-02-20 NDP 53% OLP 24% PCPO 12% GPO 6% 2024-02-20 2024-03-05 NDP 52% OLP 24% PCPO 13% GPO 6% 2024-03-05 2024-04-04 NDP 53% OLP 22% PCPO 13% GPO 6% 2024-04-04 2024-05-03 NDP 53% OLP 22% PCPO 14% GPO 6% 2024-05-03 2024-06-30 NDP 53% OLP 21% PCPO 14% GPO 7% 2024-06-30 2024-07-29 NDP 52% OLP 22% PCPO 15% GPO 7% 2024-07-29 2024-10-09 NDP 52% OLP 22% PCPO 14% GPO 7% 2024-10-09 2024-11-11 NDP 52% OLP 22% PCPO 15% GPO 7% 2024-11-11 2024-12-15 NDP 53% OLP 21% PCPO 15% GPO 6% 2024-12-15

Odds of winning | Davenport

OLP <1% PCPO <1% NDP >99% GPO <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2022-05-01 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 2025-09-01 Election 2022 OLP PCPO NDP GPO December 15, 2024 2022-04-30 NDP >99% OLP <1% GPO <1% PCPO <1% 2022-04-30 2022-05-03 NDP >99% OLP <1% GPO <1% PCPO <1% 2022-05-03 2022-05-04 NDP >99% OLP <1% GPO <1% PCPO <1% 2022-05-04 2022-05-05 NDP >99% OLP <1% GPO <1% PCPO <1% 2022-05-05 2022-05-06 NDP >99% OLP <1% GPO <1% PCPO <1% 2022-05-06 2022-05-07 NDP >99% OLP <1% GPO <1% PCPO <1% 2022-05-07 2022-05-08 NDP >99% OLP <1% GPO <1% PCPO <1% 2022-05-08 2022-05-09 NDP >99% OLP <1% GPO <1% PCPO <1% 2022-05-09 2022-05-10 NDP 99% OLP 1% GPO <1% PCPO <1% 2022-05-10 2022-05-11 NDP >99% OLP <1% GPO <1% PCPO <1% 2022-05-11 2022-05-12 NDP >99% OLP <1% GPO <1% PCPO <1% 2022-05-12 2022-05-13 NDP >99% OLP <1% GPO <1% PCPO <1% 2022-05-13 2022-05-14 NDP >99% OLP <1% GPO <1% PCPO <1% 2022-05-14 2022-05-15 NDP >99% OLP <1% GPO <1% PCPO <1% 2022-05-15 2022-05-16 NDP >99% OLP <1% GPO <1% PCPO <1% 2022-05-16 2022-05-17 NDP 98% OLP 2% GPO <1% PCPO <1% 2022-05-17 2022-05-18 NDP 91% OLP 9% GPO <1% PCPO <1% 2022-05-18 2022-05-19 NDP 91% OLP 9% GPO <1% PCPO <1% 2022-05-19 2022-05-20 NDP 95% OLP 5% GPO <1% PCPO <1% 2022-05-20 2022-05-21 NDP 96% OLP 4% GPO <1% PCPO <1% 2022-05-21 2022-05-22 NDP 96% OLP 4% GPO <1% PCPO <1% 2022-05-22 2022-05-23 NDP 95% OLP 5% GPO <1% PCPO <1% 2022-05-23 2022-05-24 NDP 95% OLP 5% GPO <1% PCPO <1% 2022-05-24 2022-05-25 NDP 94% OLP 6% GPO <1% PCPO <1% 2022-05-25 2022-05-26 NDP 95% OLP 5% GPO <1% PCPO <1% 2022-05-26 2022-05-27 NDP 95% OLP 5% GPO <1% PCPO <1% 2022-05-27 2022-05-28 NDP 93% OLP 7% GPO <1% PCPO <1% 2022-05-28 2022-05-29 NDP 93% OLP 7% GPO <1% PCPO <1% 2022-05-29 2022-05-30 NDP 98% OLP 2% GPO <1% PCPO <1% 2022-05-30 2022-05-31 NDP 98% OLP 2% GPO <1% PCPO <1% 2022-05-31 2022-06-01 NDP 98% OLP 2% GPO <1% PCPO <1% 2022-06-01 2022-06-03 NDP >99% GPO <1% PCPO <1% OLP <1% 2022-06-03 2022-12-30 NDP >99% GPO <1% PCPO <1% OLP <1% 2022-12-30 2023-02-15 NDP >99% GPO <1% PCPO <1% OLP <1% 2023-02-15 2023-03-09 NDP >99% GPO <1% PCPO <1% OLP <1% 2023-03-09 2023-03-17 NDP >99% GPO <1% PCPO <1% OLP <1% 2023-03-17 2023-04-16 NDP >99% GPO <1% PCPO <1% OLP <1% 2023-04-16 2023-07-07 NDP >99% GPO <1% PCPO <1% OLP <1% 2023-07-07 2023-07-22 NDP >99% GPO <1% PCPO <1% OLP <1% 2023-07-22 2023-07-28 NDP >99% GPO <1% PCPO <1% OLP <1% 2023-07-28 2023-08-26 NDP >99% GPO <1% PCPO <1% OLP <1% 2023-08-26 2023-10-07 NDP >99% GPO <1% PCPO <1% OLP <1% 2023-10-07 2023-10-23 NDP >99% GPO <1% PCPO <1% OLP <1% 2023-10-23 2023-12-01 NDP >99% GPO <1% PCPO <1% OLP <1% 2023-12-01 2023-12-20 NDP >99% GPO <1% PCPO <1% OLP <1% 2023-12-20 2024-02-02 NDP >99% GPO <1% PCPO <1% OLP <1% 2024-02-02 2024-02-20 NDP >99% GPO <1% PCPO <1% OLP <1% 2024-02-20 2024-03-05 NDP >99% GPO <1% PCPO <1% OLP <1% 2024-03-05 2024-04-04 NDP >99% GPO <1% PCPO <1% OLP <1% 2024-04-04 2024-05-03 NDP >99% GPO <1% PCPO <1% OLP <1% 2024-05-03 2024-06-30 NDP >99% GPO <1% PCPO <1% OLP <1% 2024-06-30 2024-07-29 NDP >99% GPO <1% PCPO <1% OLP <1% 2024-07-29 2024-10-09 NDP >99% GPO <1% PCPO <1% OLP <1% 2024-10-09 2024-11-11 NDP >99% GPO <1% PCPO <1% OLP <1% 2024-11-11 2024-12-15 NDP >99% GPO <1% PCPO <1% OLP <1% 2024-12-15

Recent electoral history | Davenport



2014 2018 2022 Proj. NDP 40.1% 60.3% 57.1% 53% ± 9% OLP 45.6% 18.7% 19.2% 21% ± 7% PCPO 7.5% 16.1% 14.1% 15% ± 6% GPO 5.0% 3.6% 4.8% 6% ± 4% NBPO 0.0% 0.0% 1.1% 1% ± 1% ONP 0.0% 0.0% 1.1% 1% ± 1%