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Ontario

Davenport


MPP: Stiles, Marit (NDP)

Latest projection: May 3, 2024
Safe NDP
Davenport 53% ± 9% NDP 22% ± 7% OLP 14% ± 5%▲ PCPO 6% ± 4% GPO NDP 2022 57.1% 338Canada Popular vote projection | May 3, 2024
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by profesional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Davenport >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% PCPO Odds of winning | May 3, 2024
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).


Popular vote projection | Davenport

OLP 22% ± 7% PCPO 14% ± 5% NDP 53% ± 9% GPO 6% ± 4% Popular vote projection % | Davenport 65 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2022-05-01 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 Election 2022 OLP PCPO NDP GPO

Odds of winning | Davenport

OLP <1% PCPO <1% NDP >99% GPO <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2022-05-01 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 Election 2022 OLP PCPO NDP GPO

Recent electoral history | Davenport



2014 2018 2022 Proj. NDP 40.1% 60.3% 57.1% 53% ± 9% OLP 45.6% 18.7% 19.2% 22% ± 7% PCPO 7.5% 16.1% 14.1% 14% ± 5% GPO 5.0% 3.6% 4.8% 6% ± 4% NBPO 0.0% 0.0% 1.1% 1% ± 1% ONP 0.0% 0.0% 1.1% 1% ± 1%