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Ontario

Nepean


MPP : Tyler Watt (OLP)
Latest projection: June 27, 2025
Likely OLP

Recent electoral history | Nepean


2014 2018 2022 Proj. PCPO 43.2% 45.2% 39.2% 39% ± 9% OLP 36.3% 19.6% 33.4% 49% ± 9% NDP 13.5% 28.6% 20.1% 9% ± 4% GPO 5.5% 5.1% 4.1% 2% ± 2% NBPO 0.0% 0.0% 2.3% 1% ± 1% ONP 0.0% 0.0% 0.9% 1% ± 1% IND 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0% ± 1%

Nepean 49% ± 9%▲ OLP 39% ± 9% PCPO 9% ± 4% NDP PCPO 2022 39.2% 338Canada Popular vote projection | June 27, 2025
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Nepean 94%▲ OLP 6%▼ PCPO <1% NDP Odds of winning | June 27, 2025
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.9%), likely (90% to 99.9%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).


Popular vote projection | Nepean

OLP 49% ± 9% PCPO 39% ± 9% NDP 9% ± 4% Popular vote projection % | Nepean 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2025-02-01 2025-03-01 2025-04-01 2025-05-01 2025-06-01 2025-07-01 2025-08-01 2025-09-01 2025-10-01 2025-11-01 2025-12-01 Election 2025 OLP PCPO NDP June 27, 2025 2025-01-27 PCPO 41% OLP 34% NDP 18% 2025-01-27 2025-01-29 PCPO 41% OLP 34% NDP 18% 2025-01-29 2025-01-31 PCPO 43% OLP 33% NDP 17% 2025-01-31 2025-02-02 PCPO 44% OLP 33% NDP 17% 2025-02-02 2025-02-03 PCPO 43% OLP 34% NDP 17% 2025-02-03 2025-02-04 PCPO 44% OLP 34% NDP 16% 2025-02-04 2025-02-05 PCPO 44% OLP 34% NDP 16% 2025-02-05 2025-02-06 PCPO 44% OLP 34% NDP 16% 2025-02-06 2025-02-07 PCPO 44% OLP 34% NDP 16% 2025-02-07 2025-02-08 PCPO 44% OLP 34% NDP 16% 2025-02-08 2025-02-09 PCPO 44% OLP 33% NDP 16% 2025-02-09 2025-02-10 PCPO 44% OLP 34% NDP 16% 2025-02-10 2025-02-11 PCPO 44% OLP 34% NDP 15% 2025-02-11 2025-02-12 PCPO 44% OLP 35% NDP 15% 2025-02-12 2025-02-13 PCPO 44% OLP 34% NDP 15% 2025-02-13 2025-02-14 PCPO 44% OLP 35% NDP 14% 2025-02-14 2025-02-15 PCPO 45% OLP 35% NDP 14% 2025-02-15 2025-02-16 PCPO 45% OLP 35% NDP 14% 2025-02-16 2025-02-17 PCPO 43% OLP 35% NDP 14% 2025-02-17 2025-02-18 PCPO 43% OLP 35% NDP 14% 2025-02-18 2025-02-19 PCPO 44% OLP 35% NDP 14% 2025-02-19 2025-02-20 PCPO 44% OLP 35% NDP 14% 2025-02-20 2025-02-21 PCPO 44% OLP 35% NDP 14% 2025-02-21 2025-02-22 PCPO 44% OLP 35% NDP 14% 2025-02-22 2025-02-23 PCPO 44% OLP 35% NDP 14% 2025-02-23 2025-02-24 PCPO 44% OLP 35% NDP 14% 2025-02-24 2025-02-25 PCPO 44% OLP 35% NDP 14% 2025-02-25 2025-02-26 PCPO 45% OLP 34% NDP 14% 2025-02-26 2025-02-27 PCPO 45% OLP 35% NDP 14% 2025-02-27 2025-02-28 OLP 49% PCPO 38% NDP 9% 2025-02-28 2025-06-07 OLP 48% PCPO 39% NDP 9% 2025-06-07 2025-06-27 OLP 49% PCPO 39% NDP 9% 2025-06-27

Odds of winning | Nepean

OLP 94% PCPO 6% NDP <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2025-02-01 2025-03-01 2025-04-01 2025-05-01 2025-06-01 2025-07-01 2025-08-01 2025-09-01 2025-10-01 2025-11-01 2025-12-01 Election 2025 OLP PCPO NDP June 27, 2025 2025-01-27 PCPO 87% OLP 13% NDP <1% 2025-01-27 2025-01-29 PCPO 88% OLP 12% NDP <1% 2025-01-29 2025-01-31 PCPO 96% OLP 4% NDP <1% 2025-01-31 2025-02-02 PCPO 97% OLP 3% NDP <1% 2025-02-02 2025-02-03 PCPO 95% OLP 5% NDP <1% 2025-02-03 2025-02-04 PCPO 94% OLP 6% NDP <1% 2025-02-04 2025-02-05 PCPO 94% OLP 6% NDP <1% 2025-02-05 2025-02-06 PCPO 97% OLP 3% NDP <1% 2025-02-06 2025-02-07 PCPO 96% OLP 4% NDP <1% 2025-02-07 2025-02-08 PCPO 95% OLP 5% NDP <1% 2025-02-08 2025-02-09 PCPO 97% OLP 3% NDP <1% 2025-02-09 2025-02-10 PCPO 97% OLP 3% NDP <1% 2025-02-10 2025-02-11 PCPO 96% OLP 4% NDP <1% 2025-02-11 2025-02-12 PCPO 95% OLP 5% NDP <1% 2025-02-12 2025-02-13 PCPO 95% OLP 5% NDP <1% 2025-02-13 2025-02-14 PCPO 95% OLP 5% NDP <1% 2025-02-14 2025-02-15 PCPO 96% OLP 4% NDP <1% 2025-02-15 2025-02-16 PCPO 96% OLP 4% NDP <1% 2025-02-16 2025-02-17 PCPO 92% OLP 8% NDP <1% 2025-02-17 2025-02-18 PCPO 91% OLP 9% NDP <1% 2025-02-18 2025-02-19 PCPO 94% OLP 6% NDP <1% 2025-02-19 2025-02-20 PCPO 95% OLP 5% NDP <1% 2025-02-20 2025-02-21 PCPO 95% OLP 5% NDP <1% 2025-02-21 2025-02-22 PCPO 95% OLP 5% NDP <1% 2025-02-22 2025-02-23 PCPO 96% OLP 4% NDP <1% 2025-02-23 2025-02-24 PCPO 96% OLP 4% NDP <1% 2025-02-24 2025-02-25 PCPO 96% OLP 4% NDP <1% 2025-02-25 2025-02-26 PCPO 97% OLP 3% NDP <1% 2025-02-26 2025-02-27 PCPO 96% OLP 4% NDP <1% 2025-02-27 2025-02-28 OLP >99% PCPO <1% NDP <1% 2025-02-28 2025-06-07 OLP 93% PCPO 7% NDP <1% 2025-06-07 2025-06-27 OLP 94% PCPO 6% NDP <1% 2025-06-27