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Ontario

Nepean


MPP: Macleod, Lisa (PCPO)

Latest projection: November 12, 2024
Leaning PCPO
Nepean 40% ± 9%▲ PCPO 34% ± 8%▼ OLP 18% ± 6% NDP 5% ± 3%▼ GPO PCPO 2022 39.2% 338Canada Popular vote projection | November 12, 2024
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Nepean 83%▲ PCPO 17%▼ OLP <1% NDP Odds of winning | November 12, 2024
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).


Popular vote projection | Nepean

OLP 34% ± 8% PCPO 40% ± 9% NDP 18% ± 6% GPO 5% ± 3% Popular vote projection % | Nepean 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2022-05-01 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 2025-09-01 Election 2022 OLP PCPO NDP GPO November 12, 2024 2022-04-30 PCPO 43% OLP 32% NDP 16% GPO 4% 2022-04-30 2022-05-03 PCPO 41% OLP 31% NDP 19% GPO 4% 2022-05-03 2022-05-04 PCPO 41% OLP 31% NDP 19% GPO 4% 2022-05-04 2022-05-05 PCPO 41% OLP 31% NDP 19% GPO 4% 2022-05-05 2022-05-06 PCPO 40% OLP 31% NDP 19% GPO 4% 2022-05-06 2022-05-07 PCPO 40% OLP 31% NDP 19% GPO 4% 2022-05-07 2022-05-08 PCPO 40% OLP 32% NDP 20% GPO 4% 2022-05-08 2022-05-09 PCPO 40% OLP 32% NDP 19% GPO 4% 2022-05-09 2022-05-10 PCPO 39% OLP 33% NDP 19% GPO 4% 2022-05-10 2022-05-11 PCPO 41% OLP 31% NDP 19% GPO 4% 2022-05-11 2022-05-12 PCPO 41% OLP 31% NDP 19% GPO 4% 2022-05-12 2022-05-13 PCPO 41% OLP 31% NDP 19% GPO 4% 2022-05-13 2022-05-14 PCPO 42% OLP 32% NDP 19% GPO 4% 2022-05-14 2022-05-15 PCPO 42% OLP 31% NDP 20% GPO 4% 2022-05-15 2022-05-16 PCPO 41% OLP 32% NDP 20% GPO 4% 2022-05-16 2022-05-17 PCPO 41% OLP 33% NDP 19% GPO 4% 2022-05-17 2022-05-18 PCPO 41% OLP 32% NDP 19% GPO 4% 2022-05-18 2022-05-19 PCPO 41% OLP 32% NDP 19% GPO 5% 2022-05-19 2022-05-20 PCPO 40% OLP 31% NDP 20% GPO 6% 2022-05-20 2022-05-21 PCPO 40% OLP 31% NDP 20% GPO 6% 2022-05-21 2022-05-22 PCPO 40% OLP 31% NDP 20% GPO 6% 2022-05-22 2022-05-23 PCPO 41% OLP 31% NDP 19% GPO 6% 2022-05-23 2022-05-24 PCPO 41% OLP 31% NDP 19% GPO 6% 2022-05-24 2022-05-25 PCPO 40% OLP 31% NDP 19% GPO 6% 2022-05-25 2022-05-26 PCPO 40% OLP 31% NDP 19% GPO 6% 2022-05-26 2022-05-27 PCPO 41% OLP 30% NDP 20% GPO 6% 2022-05-27 2022-05-28 PCPO 42% OLP 30% NDP 19% GPO 5% 2022-05-28 2022-05-29 PCPO 42% OLP 30% NDP 19% GPO 5% 2022-05-29 2022-05-30 PCPO 42% OLP 30% NDP 19% GPO 5% 2022-05-30 2022-05-31 PCPO 43% OLP 29% NDP 18% GPO 5% 2022-05-31 2022-06-01 PCPO 45% OLP 28% NDP 18% GPO 5% 2022-06-01 2022-06-03 PCPO 39% OLP 33% NDP 20% GPO 4% 2022-06-03 2022-12-30 PCPO 39% OLP 33% NDP 20% GPO 4% 2022-12-30 2023-02-15 PCPO 39% OLP 34% NDP 19% GPO 5% 2023-02-15 2023-03-09 PCPO 38% OLP 35% NDP 19% GPO 5% 2023-03-09 2023-03-17 PCPO 38% OLP 35% NDP 19% GPO 5% 2023-03-17 2023-04-16 PCPO 39% OLP 34% NDP 19% GPO 5% 2023-04-16 2023-07-07 PCPO 35% OLP 34% NDP 21% GPO 6% 2023-07-07 2023-07-22 PCPO 35% OLP 35% NDP 21% GPO 6% 2023-07-22 2023-07-28 PCPO 36% OLP 34% NDP 21% GPO 6% 2023-07-28 2023-08-26 PCPO 36% OLP 34% NDP 20% GPO 6% 2023-08-26 2023-10-07 OLP 36% PCPO 34% NDP 21% GPO 6% 2023-10-07 2023-10-23 PCPO 36% OLP 34% NDP 21% GPO 6% 2023-10-23 2023-12-01 PCPO 39% OLP 33% NDP 20% GPO 5% 2023-12-01 2023-12-20 PCPO 37% OLP 35% NDP 20% GPO 5% 2023-12-20 2024-02-02 PCPO 37% OLP 36% NDP 19% GPO 5% 2024-02-02 2024-02-20 OLP 39% PCPO 34% NDP 19% GPO 5% 2024-02-20 2024-03-05 OLP 38% PCPO 36% NDP 18% GPO 5% 2024-03-05 2024-04-04 PCPO 37% OLP 36% NDP 19% GPO 5% 2024-04-04 2024-05-03 PCPO 38% OLP 36% NDP 19% GPO 5% 2024-05-03 2024-06-30 PCPO 39% OLP 34% NDP 19% GPO 6% 2024-06-30 2024-07-29 PCPO 40% OLP 34% NDP 18% GPO 5% 2024-07-29 2024-10-09 PCPO 39% OLP 35% NDP 18% GPO 6% 2024-10-09 2024-11-11 PCPO 40% OLP 34% NDP 18% GPO 5% 2024-11-11

Odds of winning | Nepean

OLP 17% PCPO 83% NDP <1% GPO <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2022-05-01 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 2025-09-01 Election 2022 OLP PCPO NDP GPO November 12, 2024 2022-04-30 PCPO 96% OLP 4% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2022-04-30 2022-05-03 PCPO 95% OLP 5% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2022-05-03 2022-05-04 PCPO 95% OLP 5% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2022-05-04 2022-05-05 PCPO 95% OLP 5% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2022-05-05 2022-05-06 PCPO 95% OLP 5% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2022-05-06 2022-05-07 PCPO 94% OLP 6% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2022-05-07 2022-05-08 PCPO 93% OLP 7% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2022-05-08 2022-05-09 PCPO 91% OLP 9% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2022-05-09 2022-05-10 PCPO 88% OLP 12% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2022-05-10 2022-05-11 PCPO 95% OLP 5% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2022-05-11 2022-05-12 PCPO 95% OLP 5% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2022-05-12 2022-05-13 PCPO 95% OLP 5% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2022-05-13 2022-05-14 PCPO 95% OLP 5% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2022-05-14 2022-05-15 PCPO 97% OLP 3% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2022-05-15 2022-05-16 PCPO 95% OLP 5% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2022-05-16 2022-05-17 PCPO 94% OLP 6% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2022-05-17 2022-05-18 PCPO 95% OLP 5% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2022-05-18 2022-05-19 PCPO 95% OLP 5% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2022-05-19 2022-05-20 PCPO 95% OLP 5% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2022-05-20 2022-05-21 PCPO 95% OLP 5% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2022-05-21 2022-05-22 PCPO 95% OLP 5% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2022-05-22 2022-05-23 PCPO 96% OLP 4% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2022-05-23 2022-05-24 PCPO 96% OLP 4% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2022-05-24 2022-05-25 PCPO 96% OLP 4% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2022-05-25 2022-05-26 PCPO 96% OLP 4% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2022-05-26 2022-05-27 PCPO 98% OLP 2% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2022-05-27 2022-05-28 PCPO 99% OLP 1% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2022-05-28 2022-05-29 PCPO 99% OLP 1% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2022-05-29 2022-05-30 PCPO 99% OLP 1% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2022-05-30 2022-05-31 PCPO >99% OLP <1% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2022-05-31 2022-06-01 PCPO >99% OLP <1% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2022-06-01 2022-06-03 PCPO 94% OLP 6% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2022-06-03 2022-12-30 PCPO 82% OLP 18% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2022-12-30 2023-02-15 PCPO 77% OLP 23% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2023-02-15 2023-03-09 PCPO 71% OLP 29% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2023-03-09 2023-03-17 PCPO 72% OLP 28% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2023-03-17 2023-04-16 PCPO 79% OLP 21% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2023-04-16 2023-07-07 PCPO 55% OLP 45% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2023-07-07 2023-07-22 PCPO 54% OLP 46% NDP <1% GPO <1% 2023-07-22 2023-07-28 PCPO 63% OLP 37% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2023-07-28 2023-08-26 PCPO 65% OLP 35% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2023-08-26 2023-10-07 OLP 64% PCPO 36% NDP <1% GPO <1% 2023-10-07 2023-10-23 PCPO 64% OLP 36% NDP <1% GPO <1% 2023-10-23 2023-12-01 PCPO 85% OLP 15% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2023-12-01 2023-12-20 PCPO 64% OLP 36% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2023-12-20 2024-02-02 PCPO 57% OLP 43% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2024-02-02 2024-02-20 OLP 81% PCPO 19% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2024-02-20 2024-03-05 OLP 59% PCPO 41% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2024-03-05 2024-04-04 PCPO 57% OLP 43% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2024-04-04 2024-05-03 PCPO 64% OLP 36% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2024-05-03 2024-06-30 PCPO 79% OLP 21% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2024-06-30 2024-07-29 PCPO 88% OLP 12% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2024-07-29 2024-10-09 PCPO 80% OLP 20% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2024-10-09 2024-11-11 PCPO 83% OLP 17% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2024-11-11

Recent electoral history | Nepean



2014 2018 2022 Proj. PCPO 43.2% 45.2% 39.2% 40% ± 9% OLP 36.3% 19.6% 33.4% 34% ± 8% NDP 13.5% 28.6% 20.1% 18% ± 6% GPO 5.5% 5.1% 4.1% 5% ± 3% NBPO 0.0% 0.0% 2.3% 2% ± 2% ONP 0.0% 0.0% 0.9% 1% ± 1%