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Ontario

Kiiwetinoong


MPP: Mamakwa, Sol (NDP)

Latest projection: November 12, 2024
Likely NDP
Kiiwetinoong 47% ± 13% NDP 35% ± 13%▲ PCPO 10% ± 7% OLP 5% ± 5% GPO 3% ± 4% NBPO NDP 2022 55.8% 338Canada Popular vote projection | November 12, 2024
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Kiiwetinoong 92%▼ NDP 8%▲ PCPO <1% OLP Odds of winning | November 12, 2024
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).


Popular vote projection | Kiiwetinoong

OLP 10% ± 7% PCPO 35% ± 13% NDP 47% ± 13% GPO 5% ± 5% Popular vote projection % | Kiiwetinoong 70 65 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2022-05-01 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 2025-09-01 Election 2022 OLP PCPO NDP GPO November 12, 2024 2022-04-30 NDP 31% PCPO 28% OLP 26% GPO 10% 2022-04-30 2022-05-03 NDP 33% PCPO 26% OLP 25% GPO 9% 2022-05-03 2022-05-04 NDP 34% PCPO 26% OLP 25% GPO 9% 2022-05-04 2022-05-05 NDP 34% PCPO 26% OLP 25% GPO 9% 2022-05-05 2022-05-06 NDP 34% PCPO 26% OLP 25% GPO 9% 2022-05-06 2022-05-07 NDP 35% PCPO 28% OLP 22% GPO 9% 2022-05-07 2022-05-08 NDP 35% PCPO 27% OLP 23% GPO 9% 2022-05-08 2022-05-09 NDP 34% PCPO 27% OLP 23% GPO 9% 2022-05-09 2022-05-10 NDP 34% PCPO 27% OLP 23% GPO 9% 2022-05-10 2022-05-11 NDP 34% PCPO 28% OLP 23% GPO 9% 2022-05-11 2022-05-12 NDP 34% PCPO 28% OLP 23% GPO 9% 2022-05-12 2022-05-13 NDP 34% PCPO 28% OLP 23% GPO 9% 2022-05-13 2022-05-14 NDP 35% PCPO 29% OLP 24% GPO 10% 2022-05-14 2022-05-15 NDP 35% PCPO 30% OLP 23% GPO 9% 2022-05-15 2022-05-16 NDP 36% PCPO 29% OLP 24% GPO 9% 2022-05-16 2022-05-17 NDP 35% PCPO 30% OLP 23% GPO 10% 2022-05-17 2022-05-18 NDP 37% PCPO 30% OLP 19% GPO 10% 2022-05-18 2022-05-19 NDP 36% PCPO 30% OLP 19% GPO 13% 2022-05-19 2022-05-20 NDP 36% PCPO 29% OLP 18% GPO 14% 2022-05-20 2022-05-21 NDP 36% PCPO 29% OLP 17% GPO 16% 2022-05-21 2022-05-22 NDP 36% PCPO 28% OLP 18% GPO 16% 2022-05-22 2022-05-23 NDP 35% PCPO 29% OLP 17% GPO 16% 2022-05-23 2022-05-24 NDP 35% PCPO 29% OLP 18% GPO 16% 2022-05-24 2022-05-25 NDP 35% PCPO 29% OLP 17% GPO 16% 2022-05-25 2022-05-26 NDP 35% PCPO 29% OLP 17% GPO 16% 2022-05-26 2022-05-27 NDP 35% PCPO 29% OLP 17% GPO 16% 2022-05-27 2022-05-28 NDP 34% PCPO 30% OLP 17% GPO 16% 2022-05-28 2022-05-29 NDP 34% PCPO 30% OLP 17% GPO 16% 2022-05-29 2022-05-30 NDP 40% PCPO 29% OLP 17% GPO 12% 2022-05-30 2022-05-31 NDP 40% PCPO 29% OLP 17% GPO 12% 2022-05-31 2022-06-01 NDP 39% PCPO 29% OLP 17% GPO 12% 2022-06-01 2022-06-03 NDP 56% PCPO 31% OLP 6% GPO 3% 2022-06-03 2022-12-30 NDP 56% PCPO 31% OLP 6% GPO 3% 2022-12-30 2023-02-15 NDP 54% PCPO 32% OLP 6% GPO 4% 2023-02-15 2023-03-09 NDP 54% PCPO 32% OLP 7% GPO 4% 2023-03-09 2023-03-17 NDP 54% PCPO 32% OLP 7% GPO 4% 2023-03-17 2023-04-16 NDP 55% PCPO 32% OLP 6% GPO 4% 2023-04-16 2023-07-07 NDP 57% PCPO 28% OLP 6% GPO 5% 2023-07-07 2023-07-22 NDP 57% PCPO 28% OLP 6% GPO 5% 2023-07-22 2023-07-28 NDP 56% PCPO 29% OLP 6% GPO 5% 2023-07-28 2023-08-26 NDP 56% PCPO 29% OLP 6% GPO 5% 2023-08-26 2023-10-07 NDP 58% PCPO 27% OLP 7% GPO 5% 2023-10-07 2023-10-23 NDP 57% PCPO 29% OLP 6% GPO 5% 2023-10-23 2023-12-01 NDP 56% PCPO 31% OLP 6% GPO 5% 2023-12-01 2023-12-20 NDP 56% PCPO 31% OLP 7% GPO 5% 2023-12-20 2024-02-02 NDP 55% PCPO 31% OLP 7% GPO 4% 2024-02-02 2024-02-20 NDP 45% PCPO 27% OLP 20% GPO 5% 2024-02-20 2024-03-05 NDP 43% PCPO 29% OLP 20% GPO 5% 2024-03-05 2024-04-04 NDP 44% PCPO 29% OLP 19% GPO 5% 2024-04-04 2024-05-03 NDP 48% PCPO 33% OLP 10% GPO 5% 2024-05-03 2024-06-30 NDP 48% PCPO 34% OLP 10% GPO 5% 2024-06-30 2024-07-29 NDP 46% PCPO 36% OLP 10% GPO 5% 2024-07-29 2024-10-09 NDP 47% PCPO 34% OLP 10% GPO 5% 2024-10-09 2024-11-11 NDP 47% PCPO 35% OLP 10% GPO 5% 2024-11-11

Odds of winning | Kiiwetinoong

OLP <1% PCPO 8% NDP 92% GPO <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2022-05-01 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 2025-09-01 Election 2022 OLP PCPO NDP GPO November 12, 2024 2022-04-30 NDP 57% PCPO 28% OLP 15% GPO <1% 2022-04-30 2022-05-03 NDP 75% PCPO 15% OLP 10% GPO <1% 2022-05-03 2022-05-04 NDP 79% PCPO 13% OLP 8% GPO <1% 2022-05-04 2022-05-05 NDP 79% PCPO 13% OLP 8% GPO <1% 2022-05-05 2022-05-06 NDP 79% PCPO 12% OLP 9% GPO <1% 2022-05-06 2022-05-07 NDP 82% PCPO 16% OLP 2% GPO <1% 2022-05-07 2022-05-08 NDP 82% PCPO 15% OLP 3% GPO <1% 2022-05-08 2022-05-09 NDP 80% PCPO 17% OLP 3% GPO <1% 2022-05-09 2022-05-10 NDP 81% PCPO 15% OLP 4% GPO <1% 2022-05-10 2022-05-11 NDP 78% PCPO 19% OLP 3% GPO <1% 2022-05-11 2022-05-12 NDP 77% PCPO 20% OLP 3% GPO <1% 2022-05-12 2022-05-13 NDP 75% PCPO 22% OLP 3% GPO <1% 2022-05-13 2022-05-14 NDP 76% PCPO 22% OLP 3% GPO <1% 2022-05-14 2022-05-15 NDP 75% PCPO 23% OLP 2% GPO <1% 2022-05-15 2022-05-16 NDP 79% PCPO 19% OLP 3% GPO <1% 2022-05-16 2022-05-17 NDP 73% PCPO 25% OLP 2% GPO <1% 2022-05-17 2022-05-18 NDP 80% PCPO 20% OLP <1% GPO <1% 2022-05-18 2022-05-19 NDP 79% PCPO 20% OLP <1% GPO <1% 2022-05-19 2022-05-20 NDP 83% PCPO 17% OLP <1% GPO <1% 2022-05-20 2022-05-21 NDP 83% PCPO 17% OLP <1% GPO <1% 2022-05-21 2022-05-22 NDP 84% PCPO 16% OLP <1% GPO <1% 2022-05-22 2022-05-23 NDP 80% PCPO 20% OLP <1% GPO <1% 2022-05-23 2022-05-24 NDP 80% PCPO 20% OLP <1% GPO <1% 2022-05-24 2022-05-25 NDP 79% PCPO 21% OLP <1% GPO <1% 2022-05-25 2022-05-26 NDP 79% PCPO 21% OLP <1% GPO <1% 2022-05-26 2022-05-27 NDP 79% PCPO 21% OLP <1% GPO <1% 2022-05-27 2022-05-28 NDP 71% PCPO 29% OLP <1% GPO <1% 2022-05-28 2022-05-29 NDP 71% PCPO 29% OLP <1% GPO <1% 2022-05-29 2022-05-30 NDP 93% PCPO 7% OLP <1% GPO <1% 2022-05-30 2022-05-31 NDP 91% PCPO 9% OLP <1% GPO <1% 2022-05-31 2022-06-01 NDP 90% PCPO 10% OLP <1% GPO <1% 2022-06-01 2022-06-03 NDP >99% PCPO <1% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2022-06-03 2022-12-30 NDP >99% PCPO <1% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2022-12-30 2023-02-15 NDP 99% PCPO 1% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2023-02-15 2023-03-09 NDP 99% PCPO 1% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2023-03-09 2023-03-17 NDP 99% PCPO 1% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2023-03-17 2023-04-16 NDP 99% PCPO 1% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2023-04-16 2023-07-07 NDP >99% PCPO <1% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2023-07-07 2023-07-22 NDP >99% PCPO <1% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2023-07-22 2023-07-28 NDP >99% PCPO <1% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2023-07-28 2023-08-26 NDP >99% PCPO <1% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2023-08-26 2023-10-07 NDP >99% PCPO <1% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2023-10-07 2023-10-23 NDP >99% PCPO <1% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2023-10-23 2023-12-01 NDP >99% PCPO <1% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2023-12-01 2023-12-20 NDP >99% PCPO <1% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2023-12-20 2024-02-02 NDP >99% PCPO <1% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2024-02-02 2024-02-20 NDP 98% PCPO 1% OLP <1% GPO <1% 2024-02-20 2024-03-05 NDP 96% PCPO 4% OLP <1% GPO <1% 2024-03-05 2024-04-04 NDP 97% PCPO 3% OLP <1% GPO <1% 2024-04-04 2024-05-03 NDP 96% PCPO 4% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2024-05-03 2024-06-30 NDP 96% PCPO 4% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2024-06-30 2024-07-29 NDP 89% PCPO 11% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2024-07-29 2024-10-09 NDP 94% PCPO 6% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2024-10-09 2024-11-11 NDP 92% PCPO 8% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2024-11-11

Recent electoral history | Kiiwetinoong



2014 2018 2022 Proj. NDP 65.5% 50.1% 55.8% 47% ± 13% PCPO 12.0% 27.0% 31.3% 35% ± 13% OLP 18.7% 15.2% 6.0% 10% ± 7% GPO 3.7% 6.3% 3.4% 5% ± 5% NBPO 0.0% 0.0% 3.4% 3% ± 4%