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Ontario

Brampton East


MPP: Grewal, Hardeep (PCPO)

Latest projection: November 12, 2024
Likely PCPO
Brampton East 45% ± 9%▲ PCPO 28% ± 8%▼ NDP 22% ± 7% OLP PCPO 2022 43.3% 338Canada Popular vote projection | November 12, 2024
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Brampton East >99% PCPO <1% NDP <1% OLP Odds of winning | November 12, 2024
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).


Popular vote projection | Brampton East

OLP 22% ± 7% PCPO 45% ± 9% NDP 28% ± 8% Popular vote projection % | Brampton East 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2022-05-01 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 2025-09-01 Election 2022 OLP PCPO NDP November 12, 2024 2022-04-30 PCPO 35% NDP 29% OLP 28% 2022-04-30 2022-05-03 PCPO 34% NDP 31% OLP 27% 2022-05-03 2022-05-04 PCPO 34% NDP 31% OLP 27% 2022-05-04 2022-05-05 PCPO 35% NDP 31% OLP 27% 2022-05-05 2022-05-06 PCPO 34% NDP 31% OLP 27% 2022-05-06 2022-05-07 PCPO 34% NDP 32% OLP 27% 2022-05-07 2022-05-08 PCPO 34% NDP 31% OLP 27% 2022-05-08 2022-05-09 PCPO 34% NDP 30% OLP 28% 2022-05-09 2022-05-10 PCPO 34% NDP 30% OLP 28% 2022-05-10 2022-05-11 PCPO 35% NDP 30% OLP 27% 2022-05-11 2022-05-12 PCPO 35% NDP 30% OLP 27% 2022-05-12 2022-05-13 PCPO 35% NDP 30% OLP 27% 2022-05-13 2022-05-14 PCPO 36% NDP 31% OLP 28% 2022-05-14 2022-05-15 PCPO 36% NDP 32% OLP 27% 2022-05-15 2022-05-16 PCPO 35% NDP 32% OLP 28% 2022-05-16 2022-05-17 PCPO 36% NDP 31% OLP 28% 2022-05-17 2022-05-18 PCPO 36% NDP 31% OLP 28% 2022-05-18 2022-05-19 PCPO 36% NDP 31% OLP 28% 2022-05-19 2022-05-20 PCPO 35% NDP 32% OLP 27% 2022-05-20 2022-05-21 PCPO 35% NDP 32% OLP 27% 2022-05-21 2022-05-22 PCPO 35% NDP 32% OLP 27% 2022-05-22 2022-05-23 PCPO 34% NDP 34% OLP 27% 2022-05-23 2022-05-24 PCPO 34% NDP 34% OLP 27% 2022-05-24 2022-05-25 PCPO 33% NDP 33% OLP 27% 2022-05-25 2022-05-26 PCPO 33% NDP 33% OLP 27% 2022-05-26 2022-05-27 PCPO 34% NDP 33% OLP 26% 2022-05-27 2022-05-28 PCPO 34% NDP 33% OLP 26% 2022-05-28 2022-05-29 PCPO 34% NDP 33% OLP 26% 2022-05-29 2022-05-30 PCPO 34% NDP 33% OLP 26% 2022-05-30 2022-05-31 PCPO 35% NDP 32% OLP 26% 2022-05-31 2022-06-01 NDP 34% PCPO 34% OLP 25% 2022-06-01 2022-06-03 PCPO 43% NDP 31% OLP 21% 2022-06-03 2022-12-30 PCPO 43% NDP 31% OLP 21% 2022-12-30 2023-02-15 PCPO 43% NDP 29% OLP 22% 2023-02-15 2023-03-09 PCPO 43% NDP 29% OLP 23% 2023-03-09 2023-03-17 PCPO 43% NDP 29% OLP 23% 2023-03-17 2023-04-16 PCPO 43% NDP 30% OLP 22% 2023-04-16 2023-07-07 PCPO 40% NDP 32% OLP 22% 2023-07-07 2023-07-22 PCPO 40% NDP 32% OLP 22% 2023-07-22 2023-07-28 PCPO 41% NDP 32% OLP 22% 2023-07-28 2023-08-26 PCPO 41% NDP 31% OLP 22% 2023-08-26 2023-10-07 PCPO 38% NDP 33% OLP 23% 2023-10-07 2023-10-23 PCPO 41% NDP 32% OLP 22% 2023-10-23 2023-12-01 PCPO 43% NDP 31% OLP 21% 2023-12-01 2023-12-20 PCPO 42% NDP 31% OLP 23% 2023-12-20 2024-02-02 PCPO 42% NDP 30% OLP 23% 2024-02-02 2024-02-20 PCPO 40% NDP 30% OLP 25% 2024-02-20 2024-03-05 PCPO 42% NDP 29% OLP 25% 2024-03-05 2024-04-04 PCPO 42% NDP 30% OLP 23% 2024-04-04 2024-05-03 PCPO 43% NDP 29% OLP 23% 2024-05-03 2024-06-30 PCPO 44% NDP 29% OLP 22% 2024-06-30 2024-07-29 PCPO 46% NDP 28% OLP 22% 2024-07-29 2024-10-09 PCPO 44% NDP 29% OLP 22% 2024-10-09 2024-11-11 PCPO 45% NDP 28% OLP 22% 2024-11-11

Odds of winning | Brampton East

OLP <1% PCPO >99% NDP <1% GPO <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2022-05-01 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 2025-09-01 Election 2022 OLP PCPO NDP GPO November 12, 2024 2022-04-30 PCPO 84% NDP 11% OLP 5% GPO <1% 2022-04-30 2022-05-03 PCPO 67% NDP 28% OLP 5% GPO <1% 2022-05-03 2022-05-04 PCPO 69% NDP 28% OLP 3% GPO <1% 2022-05-04 2022-05-05 PCPO 72% NDP 25% OLP 2% GPO <1% 2022-05-05 2022-05-06 PCPO 70% NDP 27% OLP 3% GPO <1% 2022-05-06 2022-05-07 PCPO 68% NDP 29% OLP 3% GPO <1% 2022-05-07 2022-05-08 PCPO 70% NDP 25% OLP 5% GPO <1% 2022-05-08 2022-05-09 PCPO 73% NDP 21% OLP 6% GPO <1% 2022-05-09 2022-05-10 PCPO 69% NDP 22% OLP 9% GPO <1% 2022-05-10 2022-05-11 PCPO 78% NDP 18% OLP 4% GPO <1% 2022-05-11 2022-05-12 PCPO 79% NDP 17% OLP 4% GPO <1% 2022-05-12 2022-05-13 PCPO 82% NDP 14% OLP 4% GPO <1% 2022-05-13 2022-05-14 PCPO 82% NDP 14% OLP 4% GPO <1% 2022-05-14 2022-05-15 PCPO 78% NDP 20% OLP 2% GPO <1% 2022-05-15 2022-05-16 PCPO 72% NDP 25% OLP 3% GPO <1% 2022-05-16 2022-05-17 PCPO 83% NDP 13% OLP 4% GPO <1% 2022-05-17 2022-05-18 PCPO 84% NDP 13% OLP 3% GPO <1% 2022-05-18 2022-05-19 PCPO 84% NDP 13% OLP 3% GPO <1% 2022-05-19 2022-05-20 PCPO 75% NDP 23% OLP 2% GPO <1% 2022-05-20 2022-05-21 PCPO 75% NDP 23% OLP 2% GPO <1% 2022-05-21 2022-05-22 PCPO 73% NDP 25% OLP 2% GPO <1% 2022-05-22 2022-05-23 PCPO 51% NDP 48% OLP 2% GPO <1% 2022-05-23 2022-05-24 PCPO 51% NDP 47% OLP 2% GPO <1% 2022-05-24 2022-05-25 PCPO 50% NDP 48% OLP 2% GPO <1% 2022-05-25 2022-05-26 PCPO 50% NDP 48% OLP 2% GPO <1% 2022-05-26 2022-05-27 PCPO 51% NDP 47% OLP 2% GPO <1% 2022-05-27 2022-05-28 PCPO 64% NDP 34% OLP 2% GPO <1% 2022-05-28 2022-05-29 PCPO 64% NDP 35% OLP 2% GPO <1% 2022-05-29 2022-05-30 PCPO 64% NDP 34% OLP 2% GPO <1% 2022-05-30 2022-05-31 PCPO 66% NDP 33% OLP 1% GPO <1% 2022-05-31 2022-06-01 NDP 50% PCPO 49% OLP <1% GPO <1% 2022-06-01 2022-06-03 PCPO >99% NDP <1% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2022-06-03 2022-12-30 PCPO 98% NDP 2% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2022-12-30 2023-02-15 PCPO 99% NDP 1% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2023-02-15 2023-03-09 PCPO 99% NDP 1% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2023-03-09 2023-03-17 PCPO >99% NDP <1% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2023-03-17 2023-04-16 PCPO 99% NDP 1% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2023-04-16 2023-07-07 PCPO 90% NDP 10% OLP <1% GPO <1% 2023-07-07 2023-07-22 PCPO 91% NDP 8% OLP <1% GPO <1% 2023-07-22 2023-07-28 PCPO 95% NDP 5% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2023-07-28 2023-08-26 PCPO 96% NDP 4% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2023-08-26 2023-10-07 PCPO 86% NDP 14% OLP <1% GPO <1% 2023-10-07 2023-10-23 PCPO 94% NDP 6% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2023-10-23 2023-12-01 PCPO 98% NDP 2% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2023-12-01 2023-12-20 PCPO 98% NDP 2% OLP <1% GPO <1% 2023-12-20 2024-02-02 PCPO 98% NDP 2% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2024-02-02 2024-02-20 PCPO 97% NDP 3% OLP <1% GPO <1% 2024-02-20 2024-03-05 PCPO 99% NDP 1% OLP <1% GPO <1% 2024-03-05 2024-04-04 PCPO 99% NDP 1% OLP <1% GPO <1% 2024-04-04 2024-05-03 PCPO 99% NDP 1% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2024-05-03 2024-06-30 PCPO >99% NDP <1% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2024-06-30 2024-07-29 PCPO >99% NDP <1% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2024-07-29 2024-10-09 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% GPO <1% 2024-10-09 2024-11-11 PCPO >99% NDP <1% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2024-11-11

Recent electoral history | Brampton East



2014 2018 2022 Proj. PCPO 13.9% 33.6% 43.3% 45% ± 9% NDP 53.1% 46.9% 30.8% 28% ± 8% OLP 30.9% 16.6% 21.2% 22% ± 7% GPO 2.0% 1.3% 1.9% 2% ± 2% ONP 0.0% 0.0% 1.8% 1% ± 2% NBPO 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 1% ± 1%