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Ontario

Scarborough—Rouge Park


MPP: Thanigasalam, Vijay (PCPO)
Latest projection: February 20, 2025
Safe PCPO

Candidates | Scarborough—Rouge Park


PC Party of Ontario Vijay Thanigasalam
Liberal Party Morris Beckford
Ontario NDP Hibah Sidat
Green Party Victoria Jewt
Communist Parti Wai Kiat Tang
None of the Above Party Timothy James

Candidates listed here are on the Elections Ontario website.

Scarborough—Rouge Park 53% ± 9% PCPO 29% ± 8%▼ OLP 15% ± 6% NDP PCPO 2022 45.5% 338Canada Popular vote projection | February 20, 2025
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Scarborough—Rouge Park >99% PCPO <1% OLP <1% NDP Odds of winning | February 20, 2025
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).


Popular vote projection | Scarborough—Rouge Park

OLP 29% ± 8% PCPO 53% ± 9% NDP 15% ± 6% Popular vote projection % | Scarborough—Rouge Park 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2025-02-01 2025-02-15 2025-03-01 Election 2025 Campaign begins OLP PCPO NDP February 20, 2025 2025-01-27 PCPO 48% OLP 28% NDP 19% 2025-01-27 2025-01-29 PCPO 49% OLP 28% NDP 18% 2025-01-29 2025-01-31 PCPO 51% OLP 27% NDP 18% 2025-01-31 2025-02-02 PCPO 51% OLP 27% NDP 18% 2025-02-02 2025-02-03 PCPO 50% OLP 28% NDP 18% 2025-02-03 2025-02-04 PCPO 51% OLP 29% NDP 17% 2025-02-04 2025-02-05 PCPO 51% OLP 29% NDP 17% 2025-02-05 2025-02-06 PCPO 52% OLP 28% NDP 16% 2025-02-06 2025-02-07 PCPO 52% OLP 28% NDP 17% 2025-02-07 2025-02-08 PCPO 51% OLP 28% NDP 17% 2025-02-08 2025-02-09 PCPO 52% OLP 28% NDP 17% 2025-02-09 2025-02-10 PCPO 52% OLP 28% NDP 17% 2025-02-10 2025-02-11 PCPO 52% OLP 29% NDP 16% 2025-02-11 2025-02-12 PCPO 52% OLP 29% NDP 15% 2025-02-12 2025-02-13 PCPO 52% OLP 29% NDP 16% 2025-02-13 2025-02-14 PCPO 52% OLP 30% NDP 15% 2025-02-14 2025-02-15 PCPO 53% OLP 29% NDP 15% 2025-02-15 2025-02-16 PCPO 53% OLP 29% NDP 15% 2025-02-16 2025-02-17 PCPO 52% OLP 30% NDP 15% 2025-02-17 2025-02-18 PCPO 52% OLP 30% NDP 15% 2025-02-18 2025-02-19 PCPO 53% OLP 30% NDP 15% 2025-02-19 2025-02-20 PCPO 53% OLP 29% NDP 15% 2025-02-20

Odds of winning | Scarborough—Rouge Park

OLP <1% PCPO >99% NDP <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2025-02-01 2025-02-15 2025-03-01 Election 2025 Campaign begins OLP PCPO NDP February 20, 2025 2025-01-27 PCPO >99% OLP <1% NDP <1% 2025-01-27 2025-01-29 PCPO >99% OLP <1% NDP <1% 2025-01-29 2025-01-31 PCPO >99% OLP <1% NDP <1% 2025-01-31 2025-02-02 PCPO >99% OLP <1% NDP <1% 2025-02-02 2025-02-03 PCPO >99% OLP <1% NDP <1% 2025-02-03 2025-02-04 PCPO >99% OLP <1% NDP <1% 2025-02-04 2025-02-05 PCPO >99% OLP <1% NDP <1% 2025-02-05 2025-02-06 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-06 2025-02-07 PCPO >99% OLP <1% NDP <1% 2025-02-07 2025-02-08 PCPO >99% OLP <1% NDP <1% 2025-02-08 2025-02-09 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-09 2025-02-10 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-10 2025-02-11 PCPO >99% OLP <1% NDP <1% 2025-02-11 2025-02-12 PCPO >99% OLP <1% NDP <1% 2025-02-12 2025-02-13 PCPO >99% OLP <1% NDP <1% 2025-02-13 2025-02-14 PCPO >99% OLP <1% NDP <1% 2025-02-14 2025-02-15 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-15 2025-02-16 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-16 2025-02-17 PCPO >99% OLP <1% NDP <1% 2025-02-17 2025-02-18 PCPO >99% OLP <1% NDP <1% 2025-02-18 2025-02-19 PCPO >99% OLP <1% NDP <1% 2025-02-19 2025-02-20 PCPO >99% OLP <1% NDP <1% 2025-02-20

Recent electoral history | Scarborough—Rouge Park



2014 2018 2022 Proj. PCPO 24.6% 38.6% 45.5% 53% ± 9% OLP 48.0% 20.9% 27.5% 29% ± 8% NDP 23.9% 36.3% 21.9% 15% ± 6% GPO 2.3% 2.4% 2.4% 3% ± 2%