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Ontario

Scarborough—Rouge Park


MPP: Thanigasalam, Vijay (PCPO)

Latest projection: November 12, 2024
Likely PCPO
Scarborough—Rouge Park 45% ± 9% PCPO 29% ± 8%▼ OLP 20% ± 7% NDP 3% ± 3% GPO PCPO 2022 45.5% 338Canada Popular vote projection | November 12, 2024
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Scarborough—Rouge Park >99% PCPO <1% OLP <1% NDP Odds of winning | November 12, 2024
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).


Popular vote projection | Scarborough—Rouge Park

OLP 29% ± 8% PCPO 45% ± 9% NDP 20% ± 7% Popular vote projection % | Scarborough—Rouge Park 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2022-05-01 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 2025-09-01 Election 2022 OLP PCPO NDP November 12, 2024 2022-04-30 PCPO 34% OLP 31% NDP 26% 2022-04-30 2022-05-03 PCPO 34% OLP 31% NDP 27% 2022-05-03 2022-05-04 PCPO 34% OLP 32% NDP 26% 2022-05-04 2022-05-05 PCPO 34% OLP 32% NDP 26% 2022-05-05 2022-05-06 PCPO 34% OLP 31% NDP 26% 2022-05-06 2022-05-07 PCPO 34% OLP 31% NDP 26% 2022-05-07 2022-05-08 PCPO 34% OLP 32% NDP 26% 2022-05-08 2022-05-09 PCPO 34% OLP 32% NDP 26% 2022-05-09 2022-05-10 PCPO 33% OLP 33% NDP 26% 2022-05-10 2022-05-11 PCPO 34% OLP 32% NDP 26% 2022-05-11 2022-05-12 PCPO 35% OLP 32% NDP 25% 2022-05-12 2022-05-13 PCPO 35% OLP 32% NDP 25% 2022-05-13 2022-05-14 PCPO 34% OLP 31% NDP 25% 2022-05-14 2022-05-15 PCPO 35% OLP 31% NDP 25% 2022-05-15 2022-05-16 PCPO 34% OLP 32% NDP 25% 2022-05-16 2022-05-17 PCPO 34% OLP 33% NDP 24% 2022-05-17 2022-05-18 PCPO 34% OLP 33% NDP 23% 2022-05-18 2022-05-19 PCPO 34% OLP 32% NDP 23% 2022-05-19 2022-05-20 PCPO 33% OLP 31% NDP 25% 2022-05-20 2022-05-21 PCPO 33% OLP 31% NDP 25% 2022-05-21 2022-05-22 PCPO 33% OLP 31% NDP 25% 2022-05-22 2022-05-23 PCPO 34% OLP 31% NDP 24% 2022-05-23 2022-05-24 PCPO 34% OLP 31% NDP 24% 2022-05-24 2022-05-25 PCPO 34% OLP 31% NDP 24% 2022-05-25 2022-05-26 PCPO 33% OLP 31% NDP 24% 2022-05-26 2022-05-27 PCPO 34% OLP 31% NDP 24% 2022-05-27 2022-05-28 PCPO 35% OLP 31% NDP 23% 2022-05-28 2022-05-29 PCPO 35% OLP 31% NDP 23% 2022-05-29 2022-05-30 PCPO 34% OLP 31% NDP 23% 2022-05-30 2022-05-31 PCPO 35% OLP 31% NDP 23% 2022-05-31 2022-06-01 PCPO 37% OLP 29% NDP 23% 2022-06-01 2022-06-03 PCPO 46% OLP 28% NDP 22% 2022-06-03 2022-12-30 PCPO 45% OLP 28% NDP 22% 2022-12-30 2023-02-15 PCPO 45% OLP 28% NDP 21% 2023-02-15 2023-03-09 PCPO 45% OLP 29% NDP 20% 2023-03-09 2023-03-17 PCPO 45% OLP 29% NDP 20% 2023-03-17 2023-04-16 PCPO 45% OLP 28% NDP 21% 2023-04-16 2023-07-07 PCPO 41% OLP 29% NDP 23% 2023-07-07 2023-07-22 PCPO 42% OLP 29% NDP 23% 2023-07-22 2023-07-28 PCPO 42% OLP 28% NDP 23% 2023-07-28 2023-08-26 PCPO 42% OLP 28% NDP 23% 2023-08-26 2023-10-07 PCPO 40% OLP 30% NDP 24% 2023-10-07 2023-10-23 PCPO 42% OLP 28% NDP 24% 2023-10-23 2023-12-01 PCPO 45% OLP 27% NDP 23% 2023-12-01 2023-12-20 PCPO 43% OLP 29% NDP 22% 2023-12-20 2024-02-02 PCPO 43% OLP 30% NDP 22% 2024-02-02 2024-02-20 PCPO 39% OLP 35% NDP 21% 2024-02-20 2024-03-05 PCPO 42% OLP 33% NDP 20% 2024-03-05 2024-04-04 PCPO 43% OLP 31% NDP 21% 2024-04-04 2024-05-03 PCPO 43% OLP 31% NDP 20% 2024-05-03 2024-06-30 PCPO 44% OLP 30% NDP 21% 2024-06-30 2024-07-29 PCPO 46% OLP 29% NDP 19% 2024-07-29 2024-10-09 PCPO 45% OLP 30% NDP 20% 2024-10-09 2024-11-11 PCPO 45% OLP 29% NDP 20% 2024-11-11

Odds of winning | Scarborough—Rouge Park

OLP <1% PCPO >99% NDP <1% GPO <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2022-05-01 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 2025-09-01 Election 2022 OLP PCPO NDP GPO November 12, 2024 2022-04-30 PCPO 69% OLP 28% NDP 3% GPO <1% 2022-04-30 2022-05-03 PCPO 65% OLP 31% NDP 4% GPO <1% 2022-05-03 2022-05-04 PCPO 67% OLP 31% NDP 2% GPO <1% 2022-05-04 2022-05-05 PCPO 67% OLP 32% NDP 2% GPO <1% 2022-05-05 2022-05-06 PCPO 69% OLP 29% NDP 2% GPO <1% 2022-05-06 2022-05-07 PCPO 66% OLP 32% NDP 2% GPO <1% 2022-05-07 2022-05-08 PCPO 63% OLP 34% NDP 3% GPO <1% 2022-05-08 2022-05-09 PCPO 60% OLP 38% NDP 2% GPO <1% 2022-05-09 2022-05-10 PCPO 53% OLP 45% NDP 2% GPO <1% 2022-05-10 2022-05-11 PCPO 69% OLP 30% NDP 2% GPO <1% 2022-05-11 2022-05-12 PCPO 69% OLP 30% NDP 1% GPO <1% 2022-05-12 2022-05-13 PCPO 71% OLP 28% NDP 1% GPO <1% 2022-05-13 2022-05-14 PCPO 71% OLP 28% NDP 1% GPO <1% 2022-05-14 2022-05-15 PCPO 77% OLP 22% NDP 1% GPO <1% 2022-05-15 2022-05-16 PCPO 67% OLP 31% NDP 1% GPO <1% 2022-05-16 2022-05-17 PCPO 60% OLP 40% NDP <1% GPO <1% 2022-05-17 2022-05-18 PCPO 63% OLP 37% NDP <1% GPO <1% 2022-05-18 2022-05-19 PCPO 65% OLP 35% NDP <1% GPO <1% 2022-05-19 2022-05-20 PCPO 64% OLP 35% NDP 1% GPO <1% 2022-05-20 2022-05-21 PCPO 65% OLP 34% NDP 1% GPO <1% 2022-05-21 2022-05-22 PCPO 63% OLP 36% NDP 1% GPO <1% 2022-05-22 2022-05-23 PCPO 67% OLP 32% NDP 1% GPO <1% 2022-05-23 2022-05-24 PCPO 66% OLP 33% NDP 1% GPO <1% 2022-05-24 2022-05-25 PCPO 67% OLP 32% NDP 1% GPO <1% 2022-05-25 2022-05-26 PCPO 68% OLP 32% NDP 1% GPO <1% 2022-05-26 2022-05-27 PCPO 70% OLP 30% NDP 1% GPO <1% 2022-05-27 2022-05-28 PCPO 75% OLP 24% NDP <1% GPO <1% 2022-05-28 2022-05-29 PCPO 75% OLP 24% NDP <1% GPO <1% 2022-05-29 2022-05-30 PCPO 75% OLP 25% NDP <1% GPO <1% 2022-05-30 2022-05-31 PCPO 77% OLP 23% NDP <1% GPO <1% 2022-05-31 2022-06-01 PCPO 94% OLP 6% NDP <1% GPO <1% 2022-06-01 2022-06-03 PCPO >99% GPO <1% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2022-06-03 2022-12-30 PCPO >99% OLP <1% NDP <1% GPO <1% 2022-12-30 2023-02-15 PCPO >99% OLP <1% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2023-02-15 2023-03-09 PCPO >99% OLP <1% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2023-03-09 2023-03-17 PCPO >99% OLP <1% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2023-03-17 2023-04-16 PCPO >99% OLP <1% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2023-04-16 2023-07-07 PCPO 99% OLP 1% NDP <1% GPO <1% 2023-07-07 2023-07-22 PCPO 99% OLP 1% NDP <1% GPO <1% 2023-07-22 2023-07-28 PCPO 99% OLP 1% NDP <1% GPO <1% 2023-07-28 2023-08-26 PCPO >99% OLP <1% NDP <1% GPO <1% 2023-08-26 2023-10-07 PCPO 97% OLP 3% NDP <1% GPO <1% 2023-10-07 2023-10-23 PCPO 99% OLP <1% NDP <1% GPO <1% 2023-10-23 2023-12-01 PCPO >99% OLP <1% NDP <1% GPO <1% 2023-12-01 2023-12-20 PCPO >99% OLP <1% NDP <1% GPO <1% 2023-12-20 2024-02-02 PCPO 99% OLP 1% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2024-02-02 2024-02-20 PCPO 80% OLP 20% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2024-02-20 2024-03-05 PCPO 94% OLP 6% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2024-03-05 2024-04-04 PCPO 97% OLP 3% NDP <1% GPO <1% 2024-04-04 2024-05-03 PCPO 98% OLP 2% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2024-05-03 2024-06-30 PCPO >99% OLP <1% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2024-06-30 2024-07-29 PCPO >99% OLP <1% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2024-07-29 2024-10-09 PCPO >99% OLP <1% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2024-10-09 2024-11-11 PCPO >99% OLP <1% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2024-11-11

Recent electoral history | Scarborough—Rouge Park



2014 2018 2022 Proj. PCPO 24.6% 38.6% 45.5% 45% ± 9% OLP 48.0% 20.9% 27.5% 29% ± 8% NDP 23.9% 36.3% 21.9% 20% ± 7% GPO 2.3% 2.4% 2.4% 3% ± 3% ONP 0.0% 0.0% 1.5% 1% ± 1% NBPO 0.0% 0.0% 0.8% 1% ± 1%