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Ontario

Ottawa—Vanier


MPP: Collard, Lucille (OLP)
Latest projection: February 20, 2025
Safe OLP

Candidates | Ottawa—Vanier


PC Party of Ontario Marilissa Gosselin
Liberal Party Lucille Collard
Ontario NDP Myriam Djilane
Green Party Christian Proulx
New Blue Party Rishabh Bhatia
Libertarian Party Coreen Corcoran

Candidates listed here are on the Elections Ontario website.

Ottawa—Vanier 44% ± 9% OLP 26% ± 8% PCPO 18% ± 6% NDP 9% ± 5% GPO OLP 2022 41.0% 338Canada Popular vote projection | February 20, 2025
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Ottawa—Vanier >99% OLP <1% PCPO <1% NDP Odds of winning | February 20, 2025
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).


Popular vote projection | Ottawa—Vanier

OLP 44% ± 9% PCPO 26% ± 8% NDP 18% ± 6% GPO 9% ± 5% Popular vote projection % | Ottawa—Vanier 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2025-02-01 2025-02-15 2025-03-01 Election 2025 Campaign begins OLP PCPO NDP GPO February 20, 2025 2025-01-27 OLP 41% NDP 23% PCPO 22% GPO 10% 2025-01-27 2025-01-29 OLP 41% NDP 22% PCPO 22% GPO 10% 2025-01-29 2025-01-31 OLP 40% PCPO 25% NDP 22% GPO 9% 2025-01-31 2025-02-02 OLP 40% PCPO 25% NDP 22% GPO 9% 2025-02-02 2025-02-03 OLP 41% PCPO 25% NDP 22% GPO 9% 2025-02-03 2025-02-04 OLP 42% PCPO 26% NDP 20% GPO 9% 2025-02-04 2025-02-05 OLP 42% PCPO 25% NDP 20% GPO 9% 2025-02-05 2025-02-06 OLP 41% PCPO 26% NDP 20% GPO 9% 2025-02-06 2025-02-07 OLP 41% PCPO 26% NDP 20% GPO 9% 2025-02-07 2025-02-08 OLP 41% PCPO 26% NDP 21% GPO 9% 2025-02-08 2025-02-09 OLP 40% PCPO 26% NDP 21% GPO 9% 2025-02-09 2025-02-10 OLP 41% PCPO 26% NDP 21% GPO 9% 2025-02-10 2025-02-11 OLP 42% PCPO 26% NDP 20% GPO 9% 2025-02-11 2025-02-12 OLP 42% PCPO 26% NDP 19% GPO 9% 2025-02-12 2025-02-13 OLP 43% PCPO 26% NDP 19% GPO 9% 2025-02-13 2025-02-14 OLP 43% PCPO 26% NDP 18% GPO 9% 2025-02-14 2025-02-15 OLP 43% PCPO 26% NDP 18% GPO 9% 2025-02-15 2025-02-16 OLP 43% PCPO 26% NDP 18% GPO 9% 2025-02-16 2025-02-17 OLP 44% PCPO 25% NDP 19% GPO 9% 2025-02-17 2025-02-18 OLP 44% PCPO 26% NDP 19% GPO 9% 2025-02-18 2025-02-19 OLP 44% PCPO 26% NDP 18% GPO 9% 2025-02-19 2025-02-20 OLP 44% PCPO 26% NDP 18% GPO 9% 2025-02-20

Odds of winning | Ottawa—Vanier

OLP >99% PCPO <1% NDP <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2025-02-01 2025-02-15 2025-03-01 Election 2025 Campaign begins OLP PCPO NDP February 20, 2025 2025-01-27 OLP >99% NDP <1% PCPO <1% 2025-01-27 2025-01-29 OLP >99% PCPO <1% NDP <1% 2025-01-29 2025-01-31 OLP >99% PCPO <1% NDP <1% 2025-01-31 2025-02-02 OLP >99% PCPO <1% NDP <1% 2025-02-02 2025-02-03 OLP >99% PCPO <1% NDP <1% 2025-02-03 2025-02-04 OLP >99% PCPO <1% NDP <1% 2025-02-04 2025-02-05 OLP >99% PCPO <1% NDP <1% 2025-02-05 2025-02-06 OLP >99% PCPO <1% NDP <1% 2025-02-06 2025-02-07 OLP >99% PCPO <1% NDP <1% 2025-02-07 2025-02-08 OLP >99% PCPO <1% NDP <1% 2025-02-08 2025-02-09 OLP >99% PCPO <1% NDP <1% 2025-02-09 2025-02-10 OLP >99% PCPO <1% NDP <1% 2025-02-10 2025-02-11 OLP >99% PCPO <1% NDP <1% 2025-02-11 2025-02-12 OLP >99% PCPO <1% NDP <1% 2025-02-12 2025-02-13 OLP >99% PCPO <1% NDP <1% 2025-02-13 2025-02-14 OLP >99% PCPO <1% NDP <1% 2025-02-14 2025-02-15 OLP >99% PCPO <1% NDP <1% 2025-02-15 2025-02-16 OLP >99% PCPO <1% NDP <1% 2025-02-16 2025-02-17 OLP >99% PCPO <1% NDP <1% 2025-02-17 2025-02-18 OLP >99% PCPO <1% NDP <1% 2025-02-18 2025-02-19 OLP >99% PCPO <1% NDP <1% 2025-02-19 2025-02-20 OLP >99% PCPO <1% NDP <1% 2025-02-20

Recent electoral history | Ottawa—Vanier



2014 2018 2022 Proj. OLP 55.2% 42.9% 41.0% 44% ± 9% NDP 13.1% 29.7% 25.5% 18% ± 6% PCPO 23.0% 21.4% 20.2% 26% ± 8% GPO 7.8% 4.1% 7.9% 9% ± 5% NBPO 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 0% ± 1%