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Ontario

Ottawa—Vanier


MPP: Collard, Lucille (OLP)

Latest projection: December 15, 2024
Safe OLP
Ottawa—Vanier 41% ± 9% OLP 23% ± 7% NDP 21% ± 7% PCPO 10% ± 5% GPO OLP 2022 41.0% 338Canada Popular vote projection | December 15, 2024
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Ottawa—Vanier >99% OLP <1% NDP <1% PCPO Odds of winning | December 15, 2024
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).


Popular vote projection | Ottawa—Vanier

OLP 41% ± 9% PCPO 21% ± 7% NDP 23% ± 7% GPO 10% ± 5% Popular vote projection % | Ottawa—Vanier 65 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2022-05-01 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 2025-09-01 Election 2022 OLP PCPO NDP GPO December 15, 2024 2022-04-30 OLP 59% PCPO 19% NDP 15% GPO 3% 2022-04-30 2022-05-03 OLP 56% NDP 19% PCPO 18% GPO 2% 2022-05-03 2022-05-04 OLP 56% NDP 20% PCPO 17% GPO 2% 2022-05-04 2022-05-05 OLP 56% NDP 20% PCPO 17% GPO 2% 2022-05-05 2022-05-06 OLP 53% NDP 21% PCPO 18% GPO 3% 2022-05-06 2022-05-07 OLP 53% NDP 21% PCPO 18% GPO 3% 2022-05-07 2022-05-08 OLP 54% NDP 21% PCPO 18% GPO 3% 2022-05-08 2022-05-09 OLP 54% NDP 21% PCPO 18% GPO 3% 2022-05-09 2022-05-10 OLP 55% NDP 21% PCPO 18% GPO 3% 2022-05-10 2022-05-11 OLP 53% NDP 21% PCPO 19% GPO 3% 2022-05-11 2022-05-12 OLP 53% NDP 21% PCPO 19% GPO 3% 2022-05-12 2022-05-13 OLP 53% NDP 21% PCPO 19% GPO 3% 2022-05-13 2022-05-14 OLP 53% NDP 21% PCPO 19% GPO 3% 2022-05-14 2022-05-15 OLP 52% NDP 21% PCPO 19% GPO 2% 2022-05-15 2022-05-16 OLP 53% NDP 21% PCPO 18% GPO 2% 2022-05-16 2022-05-17 OLP 54% NDP 20% PCPO 18% GPO 3% 2022-05-17 2022-05-18 OLP 53% NDP 20% PCPO 18% GPO 3% 2022-05-18 2022-05-19 OLP 53% NDP 20% PCPO 18% GPO 3% 2022-05-19 2022-05-20 OLP 52% NDP 20% PCPO 18% GPO 4% 2022-05-20 2022-05-21 OLP 52% NDP 21% PCPO 18% GPO 4% 2022-05-21 2022-05-22 OLP 52% NDP 21% PCPO 18% GPO 4% 2022-05-22 2022-05-23 OLP 52% NDP 20% PCPO 18% GPO 4% 2022-05-23 2022-05-24 OLP 52% NDP 20% PCPO 18% GPO 4% 2022-05-24 2022-05-25 OLP 52% NDP 20% PCPO 18% GPO 4% 2022-05-25 2022-05-26 OLP 52% NDP 20% PCPO 18% GPO 4% 2022-05-26 2022-05-27 OLP 51% NDP 21% PCPO 19% GPO 4% 2022-05-27 2022-05-28 OLP 51% NDP 20% PCPO 19% GPO 4% 2022-05-28 2022-05-29 OLP 51% NDP 20% PCPO 19% GPO 4% 2022-05-29 2022-05-30 OLP 51% NDP 20% PCPO 19% GPO 4% 2022-05-30 2022-05-31 OLP 51% NDP 20% PCPO 20% GPO 4% 2022-05-31 2022-06-01 OLP 50% PCPO 21% NDP 20% GPO 3% 2022-06-01 2022-06-03 OLP 41% NDP 26% PCPO 20% GPO 8% 2022-06-03 2022-12-30 OLP 41% NDP 26% PCPO 20% GPO 8% 2022-12-30 2023-02-15 OLP 42% NDP 24% PCPO 20% GPO 9% 2023-02-15 2023-03-09 OLP 43% NDP 23% PCPO 20% GPO 9% 2023-03-09 2023-03-17 OLP 43% NDP 23% PCPO 20% GPO 9% 2023-03-17 2023-04-16 OLP 42% NDP 24% PCPO 20% GPO 9% 2023-04-16 2023-07-07 OLP 41% NDP 25% PCPO 17% GPO 12% 2023-07-07 2023-07-22 OLP 41% NDP 25% PCPO 17% GPO 11% 2023-07-22 2023-07-28 OLP 41% NDP 25% PCPO 18% GPO 11% 2023-07-28 2023-08-26 OLP 41% NDP 25% PCPO 18% GPO 11% 2023-08-26 2023-10-07 OLP 42% NDP 25% PCPO 16% GPO 10% 2023-10-07 2023-10-23 OLP 41% NDP 26% PCPO 18% GPO 10% 2023-10-23 2023-12-01 OLP 40% NDP 25% PCPO 19% GPO 10% 2023-12-01 2023-12-20 OLP 42% NDP 25% PCPO 18% GPO 10% 2023-12-20 2024-02-02 OLP 43% NDP 24% PCPO 18% GPO 10% 2024-02-02 2024-02-20 OLP 46% NDP 23% PCPO 17% GPO 10% 2024-02-20 2024-03-05 OLP 44% NDP 22% PCPO 19% GPO 10% 2024-03-05 2024-04-04 OLP 43% NDP 23% PCPO 19% GPO 10% 2024-04-04 2024-05-03 OLP 42% NDP 23% PCPO 20% GPO 10% 2024-05-03 2024-06-30 OLP 41% NDP 23% PCPO 20% GPO 10% 2024-06-30 2024-07-29 OLP 41% NDP 22% PCPO 21% GPO 10% 2024-07-29 2024-10-09 OLP 41% NDP 23% PCPO 21% GPO 10% 2024-10-09 2024-11-11 OLP 41% NDP 23% PCPO 21% GPO 10% 2024-11-11 2024-12-15 OLP 41% NDP 23% PCPO 21% GPO 10% 2024-12-15

Odds of winning | Ottawa—Vanier

OLP >99% PCPO <1% NDP <1% GPO <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2022-05-01 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 2025-09-01 Election 2022 OLP PCPO NDP GPO December 15, 2024 2022-04-30 OLP >99% GPO <1% NDP <1% PCPO <1% 2022-04-30 2022-05-03 OLP >99% GPO <1% NDP <1% PCPO <1% 2022-05-03 2022-05-04 OLP >99% GPO <1% NDP <1% PCPO <1% 2022-05-04 2022-05-05 OLP >99% GPO <1% NDP <1% PCPO <1% 2022-05-05 2022-05-06 OLP >99% GPO <1% NDP <1% PCPO <1% 2022-05-06 2022-05-07 OLP >99% GPO <1% NDP <1% PCPO <1% 2022-05-07 2022-05-08 OLP >99% GPO <1% NDP <1% PCPO <1% 2022-05-08 2022-05-09 OLP >99% GPO <1% NDP <1% PCPO <1% 2022-05-09 2022-05-10 OLP >99% GPO <1% NDP <1% PCPO <1% 2022-05-10 2022-05-11 OLP >99% GPO <1% NDP <1% PCPO <1% 2022-05-11 2022-05-12 OLP >99% GPO <1% NDP <1% PCPO <1% 2022-05-12 2022-05-13 OLP >99% GPO <1% NDP <1% PCPO <1% 2022-05-13 2022-05-14 OLP >99% GPO <1% NDP <1% PCPO <1% 2022-05-14 2022-05-15 OLP >99% GPO <1% NDP <1% PCPO <1% 2022-05-15 2022-05-16 OLP >99% GPO <1% NDP <1% PCPO <1% 2022-05-16 2022-05-17 OLP >99% GPO <1% NDP <1% PCPO <1% 2022-05-17 2022-05-18 OLP >99% GPO <1% NDP <1% PCPO <1% 2022-05-18 2022-05-19 OLP >99% GPO <1% NDP <1% PCPO <1% 2022-05-19 2022-05-20 OLP >99% GPO <1% NDP <1% PCPO <1% 2022-05-20 2022-05-21 OLP >99% GPO <1% NDP <1% PCPO <1% 2022-05-21 2022-05-22 OLP >99% GPO <1% NDP <1% PCPO <1% 2022-05-22 2022-05-23 OLP >99% GPO <1% NDP <1% PCPO <1% 2022-05-23 2022-05-24 OLP >99% GPO <1% NDP <1% PCPO <1% 2022-05-24 2022-05-25 OLP >99% GPO <1% NDP <1% PCPO <1% 2022-05-25 2022-05-26 OLP >99% GPO <1% NDP <1% PCPO <1% 2022-05-26 2022-05-27 OLP >99% GPO <1% NDP <1% PCPO <1% 2022-05-27 2022-05-28 OLP >99% GPO <1% NDP <1% PCPO <1% 2022-05-28 2022-05-29 OLP >99% GPO <1% NDP <1% PCPO <1% 2022-05-29 2022-05-30 OLP >99% GPO <1% NDP <1% PCPO <1% 2022-05-30 2022-05-31 OLP >99% GPO <1% NDP <1% PCPO <1% 2022-05-31 2022-06-01 OLP >99% GPO <1% NDP <1% PCPO <1% 2022-06-01 2022-06-03 OLP >99% NDP <1% GPO <1% PCPO <1% 2022-06-03 2022-12-30 OLP >99% NDP <1% GPO <1% PCPO <1% 2022-12-30 2023-02-15 OLP >99% NDP <1% GPO <1% PCPO <1% 2023-02-15 2023-03-09 OLP >99% NDP <1% GPO <1% PCPO <1% 2023-03-09 2023-03-17 OLP >99% NDP <1% GPO <1% PCPO <1% 2023-03-17 2023-04-16 OLP >99% NDP <1% GPO <1% PCPO <1% 2023-04-16 2023-07-07 OLP >99% NDP <1% GPO <1% PCPO <1% 2023-07-07 2023-07-22 OLP >99% NDP <1% GPO <1% PCPO <1% 2023-07-22 2023-07-28 OLP >99% NDP <1% GPO <1% PCPO <1% 2023-07-28 2023-08-26 OLP >99% NDP <1% GPO <1% PCPO <1% 2023-08-26 2023-10-07 OLP >99% NDP <1% GPO <1% PCPO <1% 2023-10-07 2023-10-23 OLP >99% NDP <1% GPO <1% PCPO <1% 2023-10-23 2023-12-01 OLP >99% NDP <1% GPO <1% PCPO <1% 2023-12-01 2023-12-20 OLP >99% NDP <1% GPO <1% PCPO <1% 2023-12-20 2024-02-02 OLP >99% NDP <1% GPO <1% PCPO <1% 2024-02-02 2024-02-20 OLP >99% GPO <1% NDP <1% PCPO <1% 2024-02-20 2024-03-05 OLP >99% NDP <1% GPO <1% PCPO <1% 2024-03-05 2024-04-04 OLP >99% NDP <1% GPO <1% PCPO <1% 2024-04-04 2024-05-03 OLP >99% NDP <1% GPO <1% PCPO <1% 2024-05-03 2024-06-30 OLP >99% NDP <1% PCPO <1% GPO <1% 2024-06-30 2024-07-29 OLP >99% NDP <1% GPO <1% PCPO <1% 2024-07-29 2024-10-09 OLP >99% NDP <1% GPO <1% PCPO <1% 2024-10-09 2024-11-11 OLP >99% NDP <1% GPO <1% PCPO <1% 2024-11-11 2024-12-15 OLP >99% NDP <1% GPO <1% PCPO <1% 2024-12-15

Recent electoral history | Ottawa—Vanier



2014 2018 2022 Proj. OLP 55.2% 42.9% 41.0% 41% ± 9% NDP 13.1% 29.7% 25.5% 23% ± 7% PCPO 23.0% 21.4% 20.2% 21% ± 7% GPO 7.8% 4.1% 7.9% 10% ± 5% ONP 0.0% 0.0% 1.6% 1% ± 1% NBPO 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 1% ± 1%