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Recent electoral history | Ottawa—Vanier


2018 2022 2025 Projection OLP 51% ± 10% 42.9% 41.0% 51.6% PC 24% ± 7% 21.4% 20.2% 22.6% NDP 18% ± 7% 29.7% 25.5% 18.2% GPO 5% ± 3% 4.1% 7.9% 5.2% NBPO 1% ± 1% 0.0% 1.0% 1.2%

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338Canada Ottawa—Vanier projection

Latest update: February 18, 2026

Ottawa—Vanier 41% 60% 51% ± 10% OLP 16% 31% 24% ± 7% PC 11% 25% 18% ± 7% NDP 2% 8% 5% ± 3% GPO OLP 2025 51.56% 338Canada Popular vote projection | February 18, 2026
Methodology note. This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Ottawa—Vanier >99% OLP <1% PC <1% NDP Odds of winning | February 18, 2026
Methodology note. These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of simulated elections.

338Canada Ontario Projection | Ottawa—Vanier

Odds of winning | Ottawa—Vanier