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Ontario

Ottawa—Vanier


MPP : Lucille Collard (OLP)
Latest projection: June 7, 2025
Safe OLP

Recent electoral history | Ottawa—Vanier


2014 2018 2022 Proj. OLP 55.2% 42.9% 41.0% 51% ± 9% NDP 13.1% 29.7% 25.5% 18% ± 6% PCPO 23.0% 21.4% 20.2% 23% ± 7% GPO 7.8% 4.1% 7.9% 5% ± 3% NBPO 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 1% ± 1%

Ottawa—Vanier 51% ± 9%▼ OLP 23% ± 7% PCPO 18% ± 6% NDP 5% ± 3% GPO OLP 2022 41.0% 338Canada Popular vote projection | June 7, 2025
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Ottawa—Vanier >99% OLP <1% PCPO <1% NDP Odds of winning | June 7, 2025
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.9%), likely (90% to 99.9%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).


Popular vote projection | Ottawa—Vanier

OLP 51% ± 9% PCPO 23% ± 7% NDP 18% ± 6% GPO 5% ± 3% Popular vote projection % | Ottawa—Vanier 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2025-02-01 2025-03-01 2025-04-01 2025-05-01 2025-06-01 2025-07-01 2025-08-01 2025-09-01 2025-10-01 2025-11-01 2025-12-01 Election 2025 OLP PCPO NDP GPO June 7, 2025 2025-01-27 OLP 41% NDP 23% PCPO 22% GPO 10% 2025-01-27 2025-01-29 OLP 41% NDP 22% PCPO 22% GPO 10% 2025-01-29 2025-01-31 OLP 40% PCPO 25% NDP 22% GPO 9% 2025-01-31 2025-02-02 OLP 40% PCPO 25% NDP 22% GPO 9% 2025-02-02 2025-02-03 OLP 41% PCPO 25% NDP 22% GPO 9% 2025-02-03 2025-02-04 OLP 42% PCPO 26% NDP 20% GPO 9% 2025-02-04 2025-02-05 OLP 42% PCPO 25% NDP 20% GPO 9% 2025-02-05 2025-02-06 OLP 41% PCPO 26% NDP 20% GPO 9% 2025-02-06 2025-02-07 OLP 41% PCPO 26% NDP 20% GPO 9% 2025-02-07 2025-02-08 OLP 41% PCPO 26% NDP 21% GPO 9% 2025-02-08 2025-02-09 OLP 40% PCPO 26% NDP 21% GPO 9% 2025-02-09 2025-02-10 OLP 41% PCPO 26% NDP 21% GPO 9% 2025-02-10 2025-02-11 OLP 42% PCPO 26% NDP 20% GPO 9% 2025-02-11 2025-02-12 OLP 42% PCPO 26% NDP 19% GPO 9% 2025-02-12 2025-02-13 OLP 43% PCPO 26% NDP 19% GPO 9% 2025-02-13 2025-02-14 OLP 43% PCPO 26% NDP 18% GPO 9% 2025-02-14 2025-02-15 OLP 43% PCPO 26% NDP 18% GPO 9% 2025-02-15 2025-02-16 OLP 43% PCPO 26% NDP 18% GPO 9% 2025-02-16 2025-02-17 OLP 44% PCPO 25% NDP 19% GPO 9% 2025-02-17 2025-02-18 OLP 44% PCPO 26% NDP 19% GPO 9% 2025-02-18 2025-02-19 OLP 44% PCPO 26% NDP 18% GPO 9% 2025-02-19 2025-02-20 OLP 44% PCPO 26% NDP 18% GPO 9% 2025-02-20 2025-02-21 OLP 44% PCPO 26% NDP 18% GPO 9% 2025-02-21 2025-02-22 OLP 43% PCPO 26% NDP 19% GPO 9% 2025-02-22 2025-02-23 OLP 43% PCPO 26% NDP 19% GPO 9% 2025-02-23 2025-02-24 OLP 43% PCPO 26% NDP 19% GPO 9% 2025-02-24 2025-02-25 OLP 43% PCPO 26% NDP 19% GPO 9% 2025-02-25 2025-02-26 OLP 43% PCPO 26% NDP 18% GPO 9% 2025-02-26 2025-02-27 OLP 44% PCPO 27% NDP 18% GPO 9% 2025-02-27 2025-02-28 OLP 52% PCPO 23% NDP 18% GPO 5% 2025-02-28 2025-06-07 OLP 51% PCPO 23% NDP 18% GPO 5% 2025-06-07

Odds of winning | Ottawa—Vanier

OLP >99% NDP <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2025-02-01 2025-03-01 2025-04-01 2025-05-01 2025-06-01 2025-07-01 2025-08-01 2025-09-01 2025-10-01 2025-11-01 2025-12-01 Election 2025 OLP NDP June 7, 2025 2025-01-27 OLP >99% NDP <1% 2025-01-27 2025-01-29 OLP >99% NDP <1% 2025-01-29 2025-01-31 OLP >99% NDP <1% 2025-01-31 2025-02-02 OLP >99% NDP <1% 2025-02-02 2025-02-03 OLP >99% NDP <1% 2025-02-03 2025-02-04 OLP >99% NDP <1% 2025-02-04 2025-02-05 OLP >99% NDP <1% 2025-02-05 2025-02-06 OLP >99% NDP <1% 2025-02-06 2025-02-07 OLP >99% NDP <1% 2025-02-07 2025-02-08 OLP >99% NDP <1% 2025-02-08 2025-02-09 OLP >99% NDP <1% 2025-02-09 2025-02-10 OLP >99% NDP <1% 2025-02-10 2025-02-11 OLP >99% NDP <1% 2025-02-11 2025-02-12 OLP >99% NDP <1% 2025-02-12 2025-02-13 OLP >99% NDP <1% 2025-02-13 2025-02-14 OLP >99% NDP <1% 2025-02-14 2025-02-15 OLP >99% NDP <1% 2025-02-15 2025-02-16 OLP >99% NDP <1% 2025-02-16 2025-02-17 OLP >99% NDP <1% 2025-02-17 2025-02-18 OLP >99% NDP <1% 2025-02-18 2025-02-19 OLP >99% NDP <1% 2025-02-19 2025-02-20 OLP >99% NDP <1% 2025-02-20 2025-02-21 OLP >99% NDP <1% 2025-02-21 2025-02-22 OLP >99% NDP <1% 2025-02-22 2025-02-23 OLP >99% NDP <1% 2025-02-23 2025-02-24 OLP >99% NDP <1% 2025-02-24 2025-02-25 OLP >99% NDP <1% 2025-02-25 2025-02-26 OLP >99% NDP <1% 2025-02-26 2025-02-27 OLP >99% NDP <1% 2025-02-27 2025-02-28 OLP >99% NDP <1% 2025-02-28 2025-06-07 OLP >99% NDP <1% 2025-06-07