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Ontario

Scarborough—Agincourt


MPP elect: Aris Babikian (PCPO)
Latest projection: February 28, 2025
Likely PCPO

Candidates | Scarborough—Agincourt


PC Party of Ontario Aris Babikian
Liberal Party Peter Yuen
Ontario NDP Francesca Policarpio
Green Party Stephanie Leblanc
New Blue Party Johan Yogaretnam
Ontario Party Donahue Morgan

Candidates listed here are on the Elections Ontario website.

Scarborough—Agincourt 49% ± 0%▼ PCPO 42% ± 0%▲ OLP 5% ± 0%▼ NDP PCPO 2022 49.1% 338Canada Popular vote projection | February 28, 2025
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Scarborough—Agincourt 93%▼ PCPO 7%▲ OLP <1% NDP Odds of winning | February 28, 2025
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).


Popular vote projection | Scarborough—Agincourt

OLP 42% ± 0% PCPO 49% ± 0% NDP 5% ± 0% Popular vote projection % | Scarborough—Agincourt 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2025-02-01 2025-02-15 2025-03-01 Election 2025 Campaign begins OLP PCPO NDP February 28, 2025 2025-01-27 PCPO 51% OLP 37% NDP 8% 2025-01-27 2025-01-29 PCPO 52% OLP 36% NDP 8% 2025-01-29 2025-01-31 PCPO 54% OLP 35% NDP 8% 2025-01-31 2025-02-02 PCPO 54% OLP 35% NDP 8% 2025-02-02 2025-02-03 PCPO 53% OLP 36% NDP 8% 2025-02-03 2025-02-04 PCPO 53% OLP 36% NDP 7% 2025-02-04 2025-02-05 PCPO 54% OLP 36% NDP 7% 2025-02-05 2025-02-06 PCPO 54% OLP 35% NDP 7% 2025-02-06 2025-02-07 PCPO 54% OLP 35% NDP 7% 2025-02-07 2025-02-08 PCPO 54% OLP 36% NDP 7% 2025-02-08 2025-02-09 PCPO 54% OLP 35% NDP 7% 2025-02-09 2025-02-10 PCPO 54% OLP 35% NDP 7% 2025-02-10 2025-02-11 PCPO 54% OLP 36% NDP 7% 2025-02-11 2025-02-12 PCPO 54% OLP 36% NDP 6% 2025-02-12 2025-02-13 PCPO 54% OLP 36% NDP 7% 2025-02-13 2025-02-14 PCPO 54% OLP 37% NDP 6% 2025-02-14 2025-02-15 PCPO 54% OLP 36% NDP 6% 2025-02-15 2025-02-16 PCPO 54% OLP 36% NDP 6% 2025-02-16 2025-02-17 PCPO 53% OLP 37% NDP 6% 2025-02-17 2025-02-18 PCPO 53% OLP 37% NDP 6% 2025-02-18 2025-02-19 PCPO 54% OLP 37% NDP 6% 2025-02-19 2025-02-20 PCPO 54% OLP 36% NDP 6% 2025-02-20 2025-02-21 PCPO 54% OLP 36% NDP 6% 2025-02-21 2025-02-22 PCPO 54% OLP 36% NDP 6% 2025-02-22 2025-02-23 PCPO 54% OLP 36% NDP 6% 2025-02-23 2025-02-24 PCPO 54% OLP 36% NDP 6% 2025-02-24 2025-02-25 PCPO 54% OLP 36% NDP 6% 2025-02-25 2025-02-26 PCPO 55% OLP 36% NDP 6% 2025-02-26 2025-02-27 PCPO 55% OLP 36% NDP 6% 2025-02-27 2025-02-28 PCPO 49% OLP 42% NDP 5% 2025-02-28

Odds of winning | Scarborough—Agincourt

OLP 7% PCPO 93% NDP <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2025-02-01 2025-02-15 2025-03-01 Election 2025 Campaign begins OLP PCPO NDP February 28, 2025 2025-01-27 PCPO 99% OLP 1% NDP <1% 2025-01-27 2025-01-29 PCPO 99% OLP 1% NDP <1% 2025-01-29 2025-01-31 PCPO >99% OLP <1% NDP <1% 2025-01-31 2025-02-02 PCPO >99% OLP <1% NDP <1% 2025-02-02 2025-02-03 PCPO >99% OLP <1% NDP <1% 2025-02-03 2025-02-04 PCPO 100% OLP 0% NDP <1% 2025-02-04 2025-02-05 PCPO >99% OLP <1% NDP <1% 2025-02-05 2025-02-06 PCPO >99% OLP <1% NDP <1% 2025-02-06 2025-02-07 PCPO >99% OLP <1% NDP <1% 2025-02-07 2025-02-08 PCPO >99% OLP <1% NDP <1% 2025-02-08 2025-02-09 PCPO >99% OLP <1% NDP <1% 2025-02-09 2025-02-10 PCPO >99% OLP <1% NDP <1% 2025-02-10 2025-02-11 PCPO >99% OLP <1% NDP <1% 2025-02-11 2025-02-12 PCPO >99% OLP <1% NDP <1% 2025-02-12 2025-02-13 PCPO >99% OLP <1% NDP <1% 2025-02-13 2025-02-14 PCPO >99% OLP <1% NDP <1% 2025-02-14 2025-02-15 PCPO >99% OLP <1% NDP <1% 2025-02-15 2025-02-16 PCPO >99% OLP <1% NDP <1% 2025-02-16 2025-02-17 PCPO 99% OLP 1% NDP <1% 2025-02-17 2025-02-18 PCPO 99% OLP 1% NDP <1% 2025-02-18 2025-02-19 PCPO >99% OLP <1% NDP <1% 2025-02-19 2025-02-20 PCPO >99% OLP <1% NDP <1% 2025-02-20 2025-02-21 PCPO >99% OLP <1% NDP <1% 2025-02-21 2025-02-22 PCPO >99% OLP <1% NDP <1% 2025-02-22 2025-02-23 PCPO >99% OLP <1% NDP <1% 2025-02-23 2025-02-24 PCPO >99% OLP <1% NDP <1% 2025-02-24 2025-02-25 PCPO >99% OLP <1% NDP <1% 2025-02-25 2025-02-26 PCPO >99% OLP <1% NDP <1% 2025-02-26 2025-02-27 PCPO >99% OLP <1% NDP <1% 2025-02-27 2025-02-28 PCPO 93% OLP 7% NDP <1% 2025-02-28

Recent electoral history | Scarborough—Agincourt



2014 2018 2022 Proj. PCPO 34.6% 50.4% 49.1% 49% ± 0% OLP 49.8% 28.3% 37.3% 42% ± 0% NDP 11.8% 17.4% 8.7% 5% ± 0% GPO 2.6% 1.7% 2.2% 2% ± 0% ONP 0.0% 0.0% 1.7% 1% ± 0% NBPO 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 1% ± 0%