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Ontario

Vaughan—Woodbridge


MPP: Tibollo, Michael (PCPO)

Latest projection: November 12, 2024
Likely PCPO
Vaughan—Woodbridge 54% ± 9%▲ PCPO 35% ± 9%▼ OLP 5% ± 3% NDP PCPO 2022 53.8% 338Canada Popular vote projection | November 12, 2024
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Vaughan—Woodbridge >99% PCPO <1% OLP <1% NDP Odds of winning | November 12, 2024
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).


Popular vote projection | Vaughan—Woodbridge

OLP 35% ± 9% PCPO 54% ± 9% NDP 5% ± 3% Popular vote projection % | Vaughan—Woodbridge 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2022-05-01 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 2025-09-01 Election 2022 OLP PCPO NDP November 12, 2024 2022-04-30 OLP 45% PCPO 43% NDP 6% 2022-04-30 2022-05-03 PCPO 43% OLP 41% NDP 10% 2022-05-03 2022-05-04 PCPO 44% OLP 41% NDP 10% 2022-05-04 2022-05-05 PCPO 45% OLP 40% NDP 10% 2022-05-05 2022-05-06 PCPO 44% OLP 41% NDP 10% 2022-05-06 2022-05-07 PCPO 44% OLP 41% NDP 10% 2022-05-07 2022-05-08 PCPO 44% OLP 41% NDP 10% 2022-05-08 2022-05-09 PCPO 44% OLP 42% NDP 9% 2022-05-09 2022-05-10 PCPO 43% OLP 43% NDP 9% 2022-05-10 2022-05-11 PCPO 44% OLP 41% NDP 9% 2022-05-11 2022-05-12 PCPO 44% OLP 41% NDP 9% 2022-05-12 2022-05-13 PCPO 45% OLP 41% NDP 9% 2022-05-13 2022-05-14 PCPO 44% OLP 40% NDP 9% 2022-05-14 2022-05-15 PCPO 45% OLP 40% NDP 10% 2022-05-15 2022-05-16 PCPO 43% OLP 41% NDP 10% 2022-05-16 2022-05-17 PCPO 44% OLP 41% NDP 9% 2022-05-17 2022-05-18 PCPO 44% OLP 40% NDP 9% 2022-05-18 2022-05-19 PCPO 44% OLP 40% NDP 9% 2022-05-19 2022-05-20 PCPO 43% OLP 40% NDP 10% 2022-05-20 2022-05-21 PCPO 43% OLP 40% NDP 10% 2022-05-21 2022-05-22 PCPO 43% OLP 40% NDP 10% 2022-05-22 2022-05-23 PCPO 42% OLP 40% NDP 10% 2022-05-23 2022-05-24 PCPO 42% OLP 40% NDP 10% 2022-05-24 2022-05-25 PCPO 41% OLP 41% NDP 10% 2022-05-25 2022-05-26 PCPO 45% OLP 41% NDP 6% 2022-05-26 2022-05-27 PCPO 45% OLP 41% NDP 6% 2022-05-27 2022-05-28 PCPO 46% OLP 41% NDP 6% 2022-05-28 2022-05-29 PCPO 46% OLP 41% NDP 6% 2022-05-29 2022-05-30 PCPO 45% OLP 42% NDP 6% 2022-05-30 2022-05-31 PCPO 45% OLP 41% NDP 6% 2022-05-31 2022-06-01 PCPO 45% OLP 41% NDP 6% 2022-06-01 2022-06-03 PCPO 54% OLP 35% NDP 5% 2022-06-03 2022-12-30 PCPO 53% OLP 35% NDP 6% 2022-12-30 2023-02-15 PCPO 53% OLP 36% NDP 5% 2023-02-15 2023-03-09 PCPO 52% OLP 37% NDP 5% 2023-03-09 2023-03-17 PCPO 52% OLP 37% NDP 5% 2023-03-17 2023-04-16 PCPO 53% OLP 36% NDP 5% 2023-04-16 2023-07-07 PCPO 49% OLP 38% NDP 6% 2023-07-07 2023-07-22 PCPO 49% OLP 38% NDP 6% 2023-07-22 2023-07-28 PCPO 50% OLP 37% NDP 6% 2023-07-28 2023-08-26 PCPO 50% OLP 37% NDP 6% 2023-08-26 2023-10-07 PCPO 47% OLP 40% NDP 6% 2023-10-07 2023-10-23 PCPO 50% OLP 37% NDP 6% 2023-10-23 2023-12-01 PCPO 53% OLP 36% NDP 6% 2023-12-01 2023-12-20 PCPO 51% OLP 38% NDP 6% 2023-12-20 2024-02-02 PCPO 50% OLP 39% NDP 6% 2024-02-02 2024-02-20 PCPO 48% OLP 41% NDP 6% 2024-02-20 2024-03-05 PCPO 50% OLP 39% NDP 5% 2024-03-05 2024-04-04 PCPO 51% OLP 38% NDP 6% 2024-04-04 2024-05-03 PCPO 52% OLP 37% NDP 6% 2024-05-03 2024-06-30 PCPO 53% OLP 36% NDP 6% 2024-06-30 2024-07-29 PCPO 54% OLP 35% NDP 5% 2024-07-29 2024-10-09 PCPO 53% OLP 36% NDP 5% 2024-10-09 2024-11-11 PCPO 54% OLP 35% NDP 5% 2024-11-11

Odds of winning | Vaughan—Woodbridge

OLP <1% PCPO >99% NDP <1% GPO <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2022-05-01 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 2025-09-01 Election 2022 OLP PCPO NDP GPO November 12, 2024 2022-04-30 OLP 60% PCPO 40% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2022-04-30 2022-05-03 PCPO 64% OLP 36% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2022-05-03 2022-05-04 PCPO 69% OLP 31% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2022-05-04 2022-05-05 PCPO 73% OLP 27% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2022-05-05 2022-05-06 PCPO 71% OLP 29% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2022-05-06 2022-05-07 PCPO 69% OLP 31% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2022-05-07 2022-05-08 PCPO 64% OLP 36% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2022-05-08 2022-05-09 PCPO 60% OLP 40% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2022-05-09 2022-05-10 PCPO 52% OLP 48% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2022-05-10 2022-05-11 PCPO 70% OLP 30% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2022-05-11 2022-05-12 PCPO 69% OLP 31% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2022-05-12 2022-05-13 PCPO 72% OLP 28% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2022-05-13 2022-05-14 PCPO 72% OLP 28% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2022-05-14 2022-05-15 PCPO 77% OLP 23% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2022-05-15 2022-05-16 PCPO 67% OLP 33% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2022-05-16 2022-05-17 PCPO 69% OLP 31% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2022-05-17 2022-05-18 PCPO 72% OLP 28% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2022-05-18 2022-05-19 PCPO 74% OLP 26% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2022-05-19 2022-05-20 PCPO 73% OLP 27% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2022-05-20 2022-05-21 PCPO 70% OLP 30% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2022-05-21 2022-05-22 PCPO 68% OLP 32% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2022-05-22 2022-05-23 PCPO 63% OLP 37% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2022-05-23 2022-05-24 PCPO 61% OLP 39% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2022-05-24 2022-05-25 PCPO 50% OLP 50% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2022-05-25 2022-05-26 PCPO 70% OLP 30% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2022-05-26 2022-05-27 PCPO 72% OLP 28% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2022-05-27 2022-05-28 PCPO 77% OLP 23% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2022-05-28 2022-05-29 PCPO 77% OLP 23% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2022-05-29 2022-05-30 PCPO 68% OLP 32% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2022-05-30 2022-05-31 PCPO 70% OLP 30% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2022-05-31 2022-06-01 PCPO 76% OLP 24% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2022-06-01 2022-06-03 PCPO >99% OLP <1% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2022-06-03 2022-12-30 PCPO >99% OLP <1% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2022-12-30 2023-02-15 PCPO 99% OLP 1% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2023-02-15 2023-03-09 PCPO 99% OLP 1% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2023-03-09 2023-03-17 PCPO 99% OLP 1% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2023-03-17 2023-04-16 PCPO >99% OLP <1% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2023-04-16 2023-07-07 PCPO 95% OLP 5% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2023-07-07 2023-07-22 PCPO 96% OLP 4% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2023-07-22 2023-07-28 PCPO 97% OLP 3% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2023-07-28 2023-08-26 PCPO 98% OLP 2% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2023-08-26 2023-10-07 PCPO 89% OLP 11% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2023-10-07 2023-10-23 PCPO 97% OLP 3% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2023-10-23 2023-12-01 PCPO >99% OLP <1% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2023-12-01 2023-12-20 PCPO 98% OLP 2% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2023-12-20 2024-02-02 PCPO 96% OLP 4% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2024-02-02 2024-02-20 PCPO 85% OLP 15% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2024-02-20 2024-03-05 PCPO 95% OLP 5% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2024-03-05 2024-04-04 PCPO 98% OLP 2% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2024-04-04 2024-05-03 PCPO 99% OLP 1% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2024-05-03 2024-06-30 PCPO >99% OLP <1% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2024-06-30 2024-07-29 PCPO >99% OLP <1% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2024-07-29 2024-10-09 PCPO >99% OLP <1% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2024-10-09 2024-11-11 PCPO >99% OLP <1% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2024-11-11

Recent electoral history | Vaughan—Woodbridge



2014 2018 2022 Proj. PCPO 27.0% 50.5% 53.8% 54% ± 9% OLP 58.0% 32.0% 35.1% 35% ± 9% NDP 11.0% 14.6% 5.4% 5% ± 3% NBPO 0.0% 0.0% 2.2% 2% ± 2% GPO 2.2% 2.3% 1.9% 2% ± 2% ONP 0.0% 0.0% 0.8% 1% ± 1%