logo
Ontario

Vaughan—Woodbridge


MPP: Tibollo, Michael (PCPO)

Latest projection: May 3, 2024
Likely PCPO
Vaughan—Woodbridge 52% ± 10%▲ PCPO 37% ± 9%▼ OLP 6% ± 3% NDP PCPO 2022 53.8% 338Canada Popular vote projection | May 3, 2024
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by profesional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Vaughan—Woodbridge 99%▲ PCPO 1%▼ OLP <1% NDP Odds of winning | May 3, 2024
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).


Popular vote projection | Vaughan—Woodbridge

OLP 37% ± 9% PCPO 52% ± 10% NDP 6% ± 3% Popular vote projection % | Vaughan—Woodbridge 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2022-05-01 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 Election 2022 OLP PCPO NDP

Odds of winning | Vaughan—Woodbridge

OLP 1% PCPO 99% NDP <1% GPO <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2022-05-01 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 Election 2022 OLP PCPO NDP GPO

Recent electoral history | Vaughan—Woodbridge



2014 2018 2022 Proj. PCPO 27.0% 50.5% 53.8% 52% ± 10% OLP 58.0% 32.0% 35.1% 37% ± 9% NDP 11.0% 14.6% 5.4% 6% ± 3% NBPO 0.0% 0.0% 2.2% 2% ± 2% GPO 2.2% 2.3% 1.9% 2% ± 2% ONP 0.0% 0.0% 0.8% 1% ± 1%