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Ontario

Vaughan—Woodbridge


MPP: Tibollo, Michael (PCPO)

Latest projection: January 20, 2025
Likely PCPO
Vaughan—Woodbridge 51% ± 10%▼ PCPO 38% ± 9%▲ OLP 6% ± 3%▲ NDP PCPO 2022 53.8% 338Canada Popular vote projection | January 20, 2025
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Vaughan—Woodbridge 97%▼ PCPO 3%▲ OLP <1% NDP Odds of winning | January 20, 2025
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).


Popular vote projection | Vaughan—Woodbridge

OLP 38% ± 9% PCPO 51% ± 10% NDP 6% ± 3% Popular vote projection % | Vaughan—Woodbridge 65 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 2025-09-01 OLP PCPO NDP January 20, 2025 2023-02-15 PCPO 53% OLP 36% NDP 5% 2023-02-15 2023-03-09 PCPO 52% OLP 37% NDP 5% 2023-03-09 2023-03-17 PCPO 52% OLP 37% NDP 5% 2023-03-17 2023-04-16 PCPO 53% OLP 36% NDP 5% 2023-04-16 2023-07-07 PCPO 49% OLP 38% NDP 6% 2023-07-07 2023-07-22 PCPO 49% OLP 38% NDP 6% 2023-07-22 2023-07-28 PCPO 50% OLP 37% NDP 6% 2023-07-28 2023-08-26 PCPO 50% OLP 37% NDP 6% 2023-08-26 2023-10-07 PCPO 47% OLP 40% NDP 6% 2023-10-07 2023-10-23 PCPO 50% OLP 37% NDP 6% 2023-10-23 2023-12-01 PCPO 53% OLP 36% NDP 6% 2023-12-01 2023-12-20 PCPO 51% OLP 38% NDP 6% 2023-12-20 2024-02-02 PCPO 50% OLP 39% NDP 6% 2024-02-02 2024-02-20 PCPO 48% OLP 41% NDP 6% 2024-02-20 2024-03-05 PCPO 50% OLP 39% NDP 5% 2024-03-05 2024-04-04 PCPO 51% OLP 38% NDP 6% 2024-04-04 2024-05-03 PCPO 52% OLP 37% NDP 6% 2024-05-03 2024-06-30 PCPO 53% OLP 36% NDP 6% 2024-06-30 2024-07-29 PCPO 54% OLP 35% NDP 5% 2024-07-29 2024-10-09 PCPO 53% OLP 36% NDP 5% 2024-10-09 2024-11-11 PCPO 54% OLP 35% NDP 5% 2024-11-11 2024-12-15 PCPO 56% OLP 34% NDP 5% 2024-12-15 2025-01-20 PCPO 51% OLP 38% NDP 6% 2025-01-20 ▼ Stiles NDP leader ▼ Crombie OLP leader

Odds of winning | Vaughan—Woodbridge

OLP 3% PCPO 97% NDP <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 2025-09-01 OLP PCPO NDP January 20, 2025 2023-02-15 PCPO 99% OLP 1% NDP <1% 2023-02-15 2023-03-09 PCPO 99% OLP 1% NDP <1% 2023-03-09 2023-03-17 PCPO 99% OLP 1% NDP <1% 2023-03-17 2023-04-16 PCPO >99% OLP <1% NDP <1% 2023-04-16 2023-07-07 PCPO 95% OLP 5% NDP <1% 2023-07-07 2023-07-22 PCPO 96% OLP 4% NDP <1% 2023-07-22 2023-07-28 PCPO 97% OLP 3% NDP <1% 2023-07-28 2023-08-26 PCPO 98% OLP 2% NDP <1% 2023-08-26 2023-10-07 PCPO 89% OLP 11% NDP <1% 2023-10-07 2023-10-23 PCPO 97% OLP 3% NDP <1% 2023-10-23 2023-12-01 PCPO >99% OLP <1% NDP <1% 2023-12-01 2023-12-20 PCPO 98% OLP 2% NDP <1% 2023-12-20 2024-02-02 PCPO 96% OLP 4% NDP <1% 2024-02-02 2024-02-20 PCPO 85% OLP 15% NDP <1% 2024-02-20 2024-03-05 PCPO 95% OLP 5% NDP <1% 2024-03-05 2024-04-04 PCPO 98% OLP 2% NDP <1% 2024-04-04 2024-05-03 PCPO 99% OLP 1% NDP <1% 2024-05-03 2024-06-30 PCPO >99% OLP <1% NDP <1% 2024-06-30 2024-07-29 PCPO >99% OLP <1% NDP <1% 2024-07-29 2024-10-09 PCPO >99% OLP <1% NDP <1% 2024-10-09 2024-11-11 PCPO >99% OLP <1% NDP <1% 2024-11-11 2024-12-15 PCPO >99% OLP <1% NDP <1% 2024-12-15 2025-01-20 PCPO 97% OLP 3% NDP <1% 2025-01-20 ▼ Stiles NDP leader ▼ Crombie OLP leader

Recent electoral history | Vaughan—Woodbridge



2014 2018 2022 Proj. PCPO 27.0% 50.5% 53.8% 51% ± 10% OLP 58.0% 32.0% 35.1% 38% ± 9% NDP 11.0% 14.6% 5.4% 6% ± 3% NBPO 0.0% 0.0% 2.2% 1% ± 1% GPO 2.2% 2.3% 1.9% 2% ± 2% ONP 0.0% 0.0% 0.8% 0% ± 1%