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Ontario

Vaughan—Woodbridge


MPP: Tibollo, Michael (PCPO)
Latest projection: February 20, 2025
Likely PCPO

Candidates | Vaughan—Woodbridge


PC Party of Ontario Michael Tibollo
Liberal Party Hamza Ansari
Ontario NDP Elif Genc
Green Party Philip Piluris
New Blue Party Pasquale Chiarizia
Populist Ontario Mario Greco

Candidates listed here are on the Elections Ontario website.

Vaughan—Woodbridge 53% ± 10% PCPO 39% ± 9% OLP 4% ± 3% NDP PCPO 2022 53.8% 338Canada Popular vote projection | February 20, 2025
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Vaughan—Woodbridge 98% PCPO 2% OLP <1% NDP Odds of winning | February 20, 2025
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).


Popular vote projection | Vaughan—Woodbridge

OLP 39% ± 9% PCPO 53% ± 10% NDP 4% ± 3% Popular vote projection % | Vaughan—Woodbridge 65 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2025-02-01 2025-02-15 2025-03-01 Election 2025 Campaign begins OLP PCPO NDP February 20, 2025 2025-01-27 PCPO 53% OLP 37% NDP 6% 2025-01-27 2025-01-29 PCPO 53% OLP 37% NDP 5% 2025-01-29 2025-01-31 PCPO 55% OLP 36% NDP 5% 2025-01-31 2025-02-02 PCPO 56% OLP 35% NDP 5% 2025-02-02 2025-02-03 PCPO 55% OLP 36% NDP 5% 2025-02-03 2025-02-04 PCPO 55% OLP 37% NDP 5% 2025-02-04 2025-02-05 PCPO 55% OLP 37% NDP 5% 2025-02-05 2025-02-06 PCPO 56% OLP 36% NDP 5% 2025-02-06 2025-02-07 PCPO 56% OLP 36% NDP 5% 2025-02-07 2025-02-08 PCPO 53% OLP 38% NDP 5% 2025-02-08 2025-02-09 PCPO 54% OLP 38% NDP 5% 2025-02-09 2025-02-10 PCPO 53% OLP 38% NDP 5% 2025-02-10 2025-02-11 PCPO 53% OLP 38% NDP 5% 2025-02-11 2025-02-12 PCPO 53% OLP 39% NDP 4% 2025-02-12 2025-02-13 PCPO 53% OLP 39% NDP 4% 2025-02-13 2025-02-14 PCPO 53% OLP 39% NDP 4% 2025-02-14 2025-02-15 PCPO 54% OLP 39% NDP 4% 2025-02-15 2025-02-16 PCPO 54% OLP 39% NDP 4% 2025-02-16 2025-02-17 PCPO 52% OLP 40% NDP 4% 2025-02-17 2025-02-18 PCPO 52% OLP 40% NDP 4% 2025-02-18 2025-02-19 PCPO 53% OLP 39% NDP 4% 2025-02-19 2025-02-20 PCPO 53% OLP 39% NDP 4% 2025-02-20

Odds of winning | Vaughan—Woodbridge

OLP 2% PCPO 98% NDP <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2025-02-01 2025-02-15 2025-03-01 Election 2025 Campaign begins OLP PCPO NDP February 20, 2025 2025-01-27 PCPO 99% OLP 1% NDP <1% 2025-01-27 2025-01-29 PCPO 99% OLP 1% NDP <1% 2025-01-29 2025-01-31 PCPO >99% OLP <1% NDP <1% 2025-01-31 2025-02-02 PCPO >99% OLP <1% NDP <1% 2025-02-02 2025-02-03 PCPO >99% OLP <1% NDP <1% 2025-02-03 2025-02-04 PCPO >99% OLP <1% NDP <1% 2025-02-04 2025-02-05 PCPO >99% OLP <1% NDP <1% 2025-02-05 2025-02-06 PCPO >99% OLP <1% NDP <1% 2025-02-06 2025-02-07 PCPO >99% OLP <1% NDP <1% 2025-02-07 2025-02-08 PCPO 98% OLP 2% NDP <1% 2025-02-08 2025-02-09 PCPO 99% OLP 1% NDP <1% 2025-02-09 2025-02-10 PCPO 99% OLP 1% NDP <1% 2025-02-10 2025-02-11 PCPO 99% OLP 1% NDP <1% 2025-02-11 2025-02-12 PCPO 98% OLP 2% NDP <1% 2025-02-12 2025-02-13 PCPO 98% OLP 2% NDP <1% 2025-02-13 2025-02-14 PCPO 98% OLP 2% NDP <1% 2025-02-14 2025-02-15 PCPO 99% OLP 1% NDP <1% 2025-02-15 2025-02-16 PCPO 99% OLP 1% NDP <1% 2025-02-16 2025-02-17 PCPO 97% OLP 3% NDP <1% 2025-02-17 2025-02-18 PCPO 97% OLP 3% NDP <1% 2025-02-18 2025-02-19 PCPO 98% OLP 2% NDP <1% 2025-02-19 2025-02-20 PCPO 98% OLP 2% NDP <1% 2025-02-20

Recent electoral history | Vaughan—Woodbridge



2014 2018 2022 Proj. PCPO 27.0% 50.5% 53.8% 53% ± 10% OLP 58.0% 32.0% 35.1% 39% ± 9% NDP 11.0% 14.6% 5.4% 4% ± 3% NBPO 0.0% 0.0% 2.2% 1% ± 1% GPO 2.2% 2.3% 1.9% 2% ± 2%