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Ontario

Guelph


MPP: Schreiner, Mike (GPO)
Latest projection: February 20, 2025
Safe GPO

Candidates | Guelph


PC Party of Ontario Robert Coole
Liberal Party Mustafa Zuberi
Ontario NDP Cameron Spence
Green Party Mike Schreiner
New Blue Party Carina Fraser

Candidates listed here are on the Elections Ontario website.

Guelph 51% ± 10% GPO 25% ± 8% PCPO 17% ± 6% OLP 6% ± 3% NDP GPO 2022 54.5% 338Canada Popular vote projection | February 20, 2025
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Guelph >99% GPO <1% PCPO <1% OLP Odds of winning | February 20, 2025
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).


Popular vote projection | Guelph

OLP 17% ± 6% PCPO 25% ± 8% NDP 6% ± 3% GPO 51% ± 10% Popular vote projection % | Guelph 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2025-02-01 2025-02-15 2025-03-01 Election 2025 Campaign begins OLP PCPO NDP GPO February 20, 2025 2025-01-27 GPO 53% PCPO 21% OLP 16% NDP 7% 2025-01-27 2025-01-29 GPO 53% PCPO 21% OLP 16% NDP 7% 2025-01-29 2025-01-31 GPO 51% PCPO 25% OLP 16% NDP 7% 2025-01-31 2025-02-02 GPO 51% PCPO 25% OLP 16% NDP 7% 2025-02-02 2025-02-03 GPO 50% PCPO 25% OLP 16% NDP 7% 2025-02-03 2025-02-04 GPO 50% PCPO 25% OLP 16% NDP 7% 2025-02-04 2025-02-05 GPO 51% PCPO 25% OLP 16% NDP 7% 2025-02-05 2025-02-06 GPO 50% PCPO 25% OLP 16% NDP 7% 2025-02-06 2025-02-07 GPO 50% PCPO 25% OLP 16% NDP 7% 2025-02-07 2025-02-08 GPO 51% PCPO 25% OLP 16% NDP 7% 2025-02-08 2025-02-09 GPO 51% PCPO 25% OLP 16% NDP 7% 2025-02-09 2025-02-10 GPO 51% PCPO 25% OLP 16% NDP 7% 2025-02-10 2025-02-11 GPO 51% PCPO 25% OLP 16% NDP 6% 2025-02-11 2025-02-12 GPO 51% PCPO 25% OLP 16% NDP 6% 2025-02-12 2025-02-13 GPO 51% PCPO 25% OLP 16% NDP 6% 2025-02-13 2025-02-14 GPO 51% PCPO 25% OLP 17% NDP 6% 2025-02-14 2025-02-15 GPO 51% PCPO 25% OLP 17% NDP 6% 2025-02-15 2025-02-16 GPO 51% PCPO 25% OLP 17% NDP 6% 2025-02-16 2025-02-17 GPO 51% PCPO 24% OLP 17% NDP 6% 2025-02-17 2025-02-18 GPO 51% PCPO 25% OLP 17% NDP 6% 2025-02-18 2025-02-19 GPO 51% PCPO 25% OLP 17% NDP 6% 2025-02-19 2025-02-20 GPO 51% PCPO 25% OLP 17% NDP 6% 2025-02-20

Odds of winning | Guelph

OLP <1% NDP <1% GPO >99% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2025-02-01 2025-02-15 2025-03-01 Election 2025 Campaign begins OLP NDP GPO February 20, 2025 2025-01-27 GPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-01-27 2025-01-29 GPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-01-29 2025-01-31 GPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-01-31 2025-02-02 GPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-02 2025-02-03 GPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-03 2025-02-04 GPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-04 2025-02-05 GPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-05 2025-02-06 GPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-06 2025-02-07 GPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-07 2025-02-08 GPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-08 2025-02-09 GPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-09 2025-02-10 GPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-10 2025-02-11 GPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-11 2025-02-12 GPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-12 2025-02-13 GPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-13 2025-02-14 GPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-14 2025-02-15 GPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-15 2025-02-16 GPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-16 2025-02-17 GPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-17 2025-02-18 GPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-18 2025-02-19 GPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-19 2025-02-20 GPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-20

Recent electoral history | Guelph



2014 2018 2022 Proj. GPO 19.3% 45.0% 54.5% 51% ± 10% PCPO 20.8% 21.8% 20.4% 25% ± 8% OLP 41.5% 10.1% 13.3% 17% ± 6% NDP 17.7% 21.6% 8.1% 6% ± 3% NBPO 0.0% 0.0% 3.0% 1% ± 1%