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Ontario

Guelph


MPP: Schreiner, Mike (GPO)

Latest projection: December 15, 2024
Safe GPO
Guelph 55% ± 11% GPO 21% ± 7%▲ PCPO 15% ± 6% OLP 7% ± 4% NDP GPO 2022 54.5% 338Canada Popular vote projection | December 15, 2024
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Guelph >99% GPO <1% PCPO <1% OLP Odds of winning | December 15, 2024
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).


Popular vote projection | Guelph

OLP 15% ± 6% PCPO 21% ± 7% NDP 7% ± 4% GPO 55% ± 11% Popular vote projection % | Guelph 65 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2022-05-01 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 2025-09-01 Election 2022 OLP PCPO NDP GPO December 15, 2024 2022-04-30 GPO 43% PCPO 21% OLP 18% NDP 12% 2022-04-30 2022-05-03 GPO 43% PCPO 21% OLP 16% NDP 14% 2022-05-03 2022-05-04 GPO 43% PCPO 21% OLP 16% NDP 15% 2022-05-04 2022-05-05 GPO 43% PCPO 21% OLP 16% NDP 15% 2022-05-05 2022-05-06 GPO 42% PCPO 21% OLP 16% NDP 15% 2022-05-06 2022-05-07 GPO 42% PCPO 21% OLP 16% NDP 15% 2022-05-07 2022-05-08 GPO 42% PCPO 21% OLP 16% NDP 15% 2022-05-08 2022-05-09 GPO 42% PCPO 21% OLP 17% NDP 15% 2022-05-09 2022-05-10 GPO 42% PCPO 20% OLP 17% NDP 15% 2022-05-10 2022-05-11 GPO 42% PCPO 21% OLP 16% NDP 15% 2022-05-11 2022-05-12 GPO 42% PCPO 21% OLP 16% NDP 14% 2022-05-12 2022-05-13 GPO 42% PCPO 21% OLP 16% NDP 14% 2022-05-13 2022-05-14 GPO 42% PCPO 21% OLP 16% NDP 14% 2022-05-14 2022-05-15 GPO 41% PCPO 22% OLP 16% NDP 15% 2022-05-15 2022-05-16 GPO 41% PCPO 21% OLP 17% NDP 15% 2022-05-16 2022-05-17 GPO 42% PCPO 20% OLP 19% NDP 14% 2022-05-17 2022-05-18 GPO 42% PCPO 20% OLP 19% NDP 14% 2022-05-18 2022-05-19 GPO 46% PCPO 19% OLP 17% NDP 13% 2022-05-19 2022-05-20 GPO 46% PCPO 18% OLP 16% NDP 14% 2022-05-20 2022-05-21 GPO 46% PCPO 18% OLP 16% NDP 14% 2022-05-21 2022-05-22 GPO 47% PCPO 17% OLP 16% NDP 14% 2022-05-22 2022-05-23 GPO 47% PCPO 18% OLP 16% NDP 14% 2022-05-23 2022-05-24 GPO 47% PCPO 18% OLP 16% NDP 14% 2022-05-24 2022-05-25 GPO 47% PCPO 17% OLP 16% NDP 14% 2022-05-25 2022-05-26 GPO 48% PCPO 17% OLP 16% NDP 14% 2022-05-26 2022-05-27 GPO 47% PCPO 18% OLP 16% NDP 14% 2022-05-27 2022-05-28 GPO 47% PCPO 19% OLP 16% NDP 14% 2022-05-28 2022-05-29 GPO 47% PCPO 19% OLP 16% NDP 14% 2022-05-29 2022-05-30 GPO 47% PCPO 19% OLP 16% NDP 14% 2022-05-30 2022-05-31 GPO 46% PCPO 19% OLP 16% NDP 14% 2022-05-31 2022-06-01 GPO 45% PCPO 21% OLP 15% NDP 13% 2022-06-01 2022-06-03 GPO 55% PCPO 20% OLP 13% NDP 8% 2022-06-03 2022-12-30 GPO 54% PCPO 20% OLP 13% NDP 8% 2022-12-30 2023-02-15 GPO 58% PCPO 19% OLP 13% NDP 7% 2023-02-15 2023-03-09 GPO 57% PCPO 19% OLP 13% NDP 7% 2023-03-09 2023-03-17 GPO 57% PCPO 19% OLP 13% NDP 7% 2023-03-17 2023-04-16 GPO 57% PCPO 19% OLP 13% NDP 7% 2023-04-16 2023-07-07 GPO 59% PCPO 16% OLP 13% NDP 8% 2023-07-07 2023-07-22 GPO 58% PCPO 17% OLP 13% NDP 8% 2023-07-22 2023-07-28 GPO 56% PCPO 18% OLP 14% NDP 9% 2023-07-28 2023-08-26 GPO 56% PCPO 18% OLP 14% NDP 8% 2023-08-26 2023-10-07 GPO 57% PCPO 17% OLP 14% NDP 9% 2023-10-07 2023-10-23 GPO 56% PCPO 18% OLP 14% NDP 9% 2023-10-23 2023-12-01 GPO 56% PCPO 20% OLP 13% NDP 9% 2023-12-01 2023-12-20 GPO 55% PCPO 19% OLP 14% NDP 9% 2023-12-20 2024-02-02 GPO 54% PCPO 19% OLP 15% NDP 9% 2024-02-02 2024-02-20 GPO 54% PCPO 18% OLP 17% NDP 7% 2024-02-20 2024-03-05 GPO 55% PCPO 19% OLP 16% NDP 7% 2024-03-05 2024-04-04 GPO 54% PCPO 19% OLP 16% NDP 7% 2024-04-04 2024-05-03 GPO 55% PCPO 19% OLP 16% NDP 7% 2024-05-03 2024-06-30 GPO 55% PCPO 20% OLP 15% NDP 7% 2024-06-30 2024-07-29 GPO 55% PCPO 20% OLP 15% NDP 7% 2024-07-29 2024-10-09 GPO 55% PCPO 20% OLP 15% NDP 7% 2024-10-09 2024-11-11 GPO 55% PCPO 20% OLP 15% NDP 7% 2024-11-11 2024-12-15 GPO 55% PCPO 21% OLP 15% NDP 7% 2024-12-15

Odds of winning | Guelph

OLP <1% PCPO <1% NDP <1% GPO >99% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2022-05-01 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 2025-09-01 Election 2022 OLP PCPO NDP GPO December 15, 2024 2022-04-30 GPO >99% PCPO <1% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2022-04-30 2022-05-03 GPO >99% PCPO <1% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2022-05-03 2022-05-04 GPO >99% PCPO <1% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2022-05-04 2022-05-05 GPO >99% PCPO <1% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2022-05-05 2022-05-06 GPO >99% PCPO <1% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2022-05-06 2022-05-07 GPO >99% PCPO <1% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2022-05-07 2022-05-08 GPO >99% PCPO <1% OLP <1% NDP <1% 2022-05-08 2022-05-09 GPO >99% PCPO <1% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2022-05-09 2022-05-10 GPO >99% PCPO <1% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2022-05-10 2022-05-11 GPO >99% PCPO <1% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2022-05-11 2022-05-12 GPO >99% PCPO <1% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2022-05-12 2022-05-13 GPO >99% PCPO <1% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2022-05-13 2022-05-14 GPO >99% PCPO <1% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2022-05-14 2022-05-15 GPO >99% PCPO <1% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2022-05-15 2022-05-16 GPO >99% PCPO <1% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2022-05-16 2022-05-17 GPO >99% PCPO <1% OLP <1% NDP <1% 2022-05-17 2022-05-18 GPO >99% PCPO <1% OLP <1% NDP <1% 2022-05-18 2022-05-19 GPO >99% NDP <1% PCPO <1% OLP <1% 2022-05-19 2022-05-20 GPO >99% NDP <1% PCPO <1% OLP <1% 2022-05-20 2022-05-21 GPO >99% NDP <1% PCPO <1% OLP <1% 2022-05-21 2022-05-22 GPO >99% NDP <1% PCPO <1% OLP <1% 2022-05-22 2022-05-23 GPO >99% NDP <1% PCPO <1% OLP <1% 2022-05-23 2022-05-24 GPO >99% NDP <1% PCPO <1% OLP <1% 2022-05-24 2022-05-25 GPO >99% NDP <1% PCPO <1% OLP <1% 2022-05-25 2022-05-26 GPO >99% NDP <1% PCPO <1% OLP <1% 2022-05-26 2022-05-27 GPO >99% NDP <1% PCPO <1% OLP <1% 2022-05-27 2022-05-28 GPO >99% NDP <1% PCPO <1% OLP <1% 2022-05-28 2022-05-29 GPO >99% NDP <1% PCPO <1% OLP <1% 2022-05-29 2022-05-30 GPO >99% NDP <1% PCPO <1% OLP <1% 2022-05-30 2022-05-31 GPO >99% NDP <1% PCPO <1% OLP <1% 2022-05-31 2022-06-01 GPO >99% NDP <1% PCPO <1% OLP <1% 2022-06-01 2022-06-03 GPO >99% NDP <1% PCPO <1% OLP <1% 2022-06-03 2022-12-30 GPO >99% NDP <1% PCPO <1% OLP <1% 2022-12-30 2023-02-15 GPO >99% NDP <1% PCPO <1% OLP <1% 2023-02-15 2023-03-09 GPO >99% NDP <1% PCPO <1% OLP <1% 2023-03-09 2023-03-17 GPO >99% NDP <1% PCPO <1% OLP <1% 2023-03-17 2023-04-16 GPO >99% NDP <1% PCPO <1% OLP <1% 2023-04-16 2023-07-07 GPO >99% NDP <1% PCPO <1% OLP <1% 2023-07-07 2023-07-22 GPO >99% NDP <1% PCPO <1% OLP <1% 2023-07-22 2023-07-28 GPO >99% NDP <1% PCPO <1% OLP <1% 2023-07-28 2023-08-26 GPO >99% NDP <1% PCPO <1% OLP <1% 2023-08-26 2023-10-07 GPO >99% NDP <1% PCPO <1% OLP <1% 2023-10-07 2023-10-23 GPO >99% NDP <1% PCPO <1% OLP <1% 2023-10-23 2023-12-01 GPO >99% NDP <1% PCPO <1% OLP <1% 2023-12-01 2023-12-20 GPO >99% NDP <1% PCPO <1% OLP <1% 2023-12-20 2024-02-02 GPO >99% NDP <1% PCPO <1% OLP <1% 2024-02-02 2024-02-20 GPO >99% NDP <1% PCPO <1% OLP <1% 2024-02-20 2024-03-05 GPO >99% NDP <1% PCPO <1% OLP <1% 2024-03-05 2024-04-04 GPO >99% PCPO <1% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2024-04-04 2024-05-03 GPO >99% NDP <1% PCPO <1% OLP <1% 2024-05-03 2024-06-30 GPO >99% NDP <1% PCPO <1% OLP <1% 2024-06-30 2024-07-29 GPO >99% NDP <1% PCPO <1% OLP <1% 2024-07-29 2024-10-09 GPO >99% NDP <1% PCPO <1% OLP <1% 2024-10-09 2024-11-11 GPO >99% NDP <1% PCPO <1% OLP <1% 2024-11-11 2024-12-15 GPO >99% NDP <1% PCPO <1% OLP <1% 2024-12-15

Recent electoral history | Guelph



2014 2018 2022 Proj. GPO 19.3% 45.0% 54.5% 55% ± 11% PCPO 20.8% 21.8% 20.4% 21% ± 7% OLP 41.5% 10.1% 13.3% 15% ± 6% NDP 17.7% 21.6% 8.1% 7% ± 4% NBPO 0.0% 0.0% 3.0% 2% ± 2%