logo
Ontario

Recent electoral history | Spadina—Fort York


2018 2022 2025 Projection NDP 46% ± 10% 49.7% 46.1% 44.7% OLP 31% ± 9% 23.7% 28.0% 31.7% PC 19% ± 6% 21.7% 18.3% 20.3% GPO 3% ± 2% 3.7% 5.6% 2.7%

Latest from the 338Canada newsletter

Loading latest analysis…


Ontario flag

338Canada Spadina—Fort York projection

Latest update: April 20, 2026

Spadina—Fort York 37% 56% 46% ± 10% NDP 22% 40% 31% ± 9% OLP 13% 26% 19% ± 6% PC NDP 2025 44.68% 338Canada Popular vote projection | April 20, 2026
Methodology note. This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Spadina—Fort York 99% NDP 1% OLP <1% PC Odds of winning | April 20, 2026
Methodology note. These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of simulated elections.

338Canada Ontario Projection | Spadina—Fort York

Odds of winning | Spadina—Fort York