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Ontario

Spadina—Fort York


MPP: Glover, Chris (NDP)

Latest projection: June 30, 2024
Likely NDP
Spadina—Fort York 42% ± 9% NDP 30% ± 8%▼ OLP 18% ± 6% PCPO 7% ± 4% GPO NDP 2022 46.1% 338Canada Popular vote projection | June 30, 2024
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by profesional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Spadina—Fort York 98%▲ NDP 2%▼ OLP <1% PCPO Odds of winning | June 30, 2024
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).


Popular vote projection | Spadina—Fort York

OLP 30% ± 8% PCPO 18% ± 6% NDP 42% ± 9% GPO 7% ± 4% Popular vote projection % | Spadina—Fort York 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2022-05-01 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 Election 2022 OLP PCPO NDP GPO June 30, 2024 2022-04-23 NDP 36% OLP 35% PCPO 20% GPO 5% 2022-04-23 2022-04-28 NDP 36% OLP 35% PCPO 20% GPO 5% 2022-04-28 2022-04-30 NDP 35% OLP 35% PCPO 20% GPO 5% 2022-04-30 2022-05-03 NDP 36% OLP 35% PCPO 19% GPO 5% 2022-05-03 2022-05-04 OLP 35% NDP 35% PCPO 20% GPO 5% 2022-05-04 2022-05-05 OLP 36% NDP 35% PCPO 20% GPO 5% 2022-05-05 2022-05-06 OLP 35% NDP 35% PCPO 20% GPO 5% 2022-05-06 2022-05-07 OLP 35% NDP 35% PCPO 20% GPO 5% 2022-05-07 2022-05-08 OLP 36% NDP 35% PCPO 19% GPO 5% 2022-05-08 2022-05-09 OLP 36% NDP 35% PCPO 19% GPO 5% 2022-05-09 2022-05-10 OLP 37% NDP 34% PCPO 19% GPO 5% 2022-05-10 2022-05-11 OLP 35% NDP 35% PCPO 20% GPO 5% 2022-05-11 2022-05-12 OLP 35% NDP 35% PCPO 20% GPO 5% 2022-05-12 2022-05-13 OLP 36% NDP 34% PCPO 20% GPO 5% 2022-05-13 2022-05-14 OLP 35% NDP 34% PCPO 20% GPO 5% 2022-05-14 2022-05-15 OLP 35% NDP 35% PCPO 21% GPO 5% 2022-05-15 2022-05-16 OLP 36% NDP 35% PCPO 20% GPO 5% 2022-05-16 2022-05-17 OLP 37% NDP 33% PCPO 20% GPO 5% 2022-05-17 2022-05-18 OLP 37% NDP 32% PCPO 20% GPO 5% 2022-05-18 2022-05-19 OLP 36% NDP 32% PCPO 20% GPO 6% 2022-05-19 2022-05-20 OLP 35% NDP 33% PCPO 20% GPO 7% 2022-05-20 2022-05-21 OLP 35% NDP 33% PCPO 20% GPO 7% 2022-05-21 2022-05-22 OLP 35% NDP 33% PCPO 19% GPO 7% 2022-05-22 2022-05-23 OLP 35% NDP 33% PCPO 20% GPO 7% 2022-05-23 2022-05-24 OLP 35% NDP 33% PCPO 20% GPO 7% 2022-05-24 2022-05-25 OLP 35% NDP 33% PCPO 20% GPO 7% 2022-05-25 2022-05-26 OLP 35% NDP 33% PCPO 20% GPO 7% 2022-05-26 2022-05-27 NDP 36% OLP 32% PCPO 20% GPO 6% 2022-05-27 2022-05-28 NDP 36% OLP 32% PCPO 21% GPO 6% 2022-05-28 2022-05-29 NDP 36% OLP 32% PCPO 21% GPO 6% 2022-05-29 2022-05-30 NDP 36% OLP 32% PCPO 21% GPO 6% 2022-05-30 2022-05-31 NDP 36% OLP 32% PCPO 21% GPO 6% 2022-05-31 2022-06-01 NDP 36% OLP 31% PCPO 21% GPO 6% 2022-06-01 2022-06-03 NDP 46% OLP 28% PCPO 18% GPO 6% 2022-06-03 2022-12-30 NDP 46% OLP 28% PCPO 18% GPO 6% 2022-12-30 2023-02-15 NDP 44% OLP 29% PCPO 18% GPO 7% 2023-02-15 2023-03-09 NDP 43% OLP 30% PCPO 18% GPO 6% 2023-03-09 2023-03-17 NDP 43% OLP 30% PCPO 18% GPO 6% 2023-03-17 2023-04-16 NDP 44% OLP 29% PCPO 18% GPO 6% 2023-04-16 2023-07-07 NDP 46% OLP 28% PCPO 15% GPO 8% 2023-07-07 2023-07-22 NDP 46% OLP 28% PCPO 16% GPO 8% 2023-07-22 2023-07-28 NDP 46% OLP 29% PCPO 16% GPO 8% 2023-07-28 2023-08-26 NDP 45% OLP 29% PCPO 16% GPO 8% 2023-08-26 2023-10-07 NDP 46% OLP 29% PCPO 15% GPO 8% 2023-10-07 2023-10-23 NDP 46% OLP 28% PCPO 16% GPO 7% 2023-10-23 2023-12-01 NDP 46% OLP 28% PCPO 17% GPO 7% 2023-12-01 2023-12-20 NDP 45% OLP 30% PCPO 17% GPO 7% 2023-12-20 2024-02-02 NDP 44% OLP 30% PCPO 17% GPO 7% 2024-02-02 2024-02-20 NDP 42% OLP 34% PCPO 15% GPO 7% 2024-02-20 2024-03-05 NDP 40% OLP 33% PCPO 17% GPO 7% 2024-03-05 2024-04-04 NDP 42% OLP 32% PCPO 17% GPO 7% 2024-04-04 2024-05-03 NDP 42% OLP 32% PCPO 18% GPO 7% 2024-05-03 2024-06-30 NDP 42% OLP 30% PCPO 18% GPO 7% 2024-06-30

Odds of winning | Spadina—Fort York

OLP 2% PCPO <1% NDP 98% GPO <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2022-05-01 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 Election 2022 OLP PCPO NDP GPO June 30, 2024 2022-04-23 NDP 55% OLP 45% GPO <1% PCPO <1% 2022-04-23 2022-04-28 NDP 55% OLP 45% GPO <1% PCPO <1% 2022-04-28 2022-04-30 NDP 53% OLP 47% GPO <1% PCPO <1% 2022-04-30 2022-05-03 NDP 55% OLP 45% GPO <1% PCPO <1% 2022-05-03 2022-05-04 OLP 54% NDP 46% GPO <1% PCPO <1% 2022-05-04 2022-05-05 OLP 57% NDP 43% GPO <1% PCPO <1% 2022-05-05 2022-05-06 OLP 52% NDP 48% GPO <1% PCPO <1% 2022-05-06 2022-05-07 OLP 52% NDP 48% GPO <1% PCPO <1% 2022-05-07 2022-05-08 OLP 53% NDP 47% GPO <1% PCPO <1% 2022-05-08 2022-05-09 OLP 61% NDP 39% GPO <1% PCPO <1% 2022-05-09 2022-05-10 OLP 64% NDP 36% GPO <1% PCPO <1% 2022-05-10 2022-05-11 OLP 54% NDP 46% GPO <1% PCPO <1% 2022-05-11 2022-05-12 OLP 56% NDP 44% PCPO <1% GPO <1% 2022-05-12 2022-05-13 OLP 58% NDP 42% PCPO <1% GPO <1% 2022-05-13 2022-05-14 OLP 57% NDP 43% GPO <1% PCPO <1% 2022-05-14 2022-05-15 OLP 53% NDP 47% PCPO <1% GPO <1% 2022-05-15 2022-05-16 OLP 58% NDP 42% PCPO <1% GPO <1% 2022-05-16 2022-05-17 OLP 80% NDP 20% PCPO <1% GPO <1% 2022-05-17 2022-05-18 OLP 82% NDP 18% PCPO <1% GPO <1% 2022-05-18 2022-05-19 OLP 80% NDP 20% PCPO <1% GPO <1% 2022-05-19 2022-05-20 OLP 65% NDP 35% GPO <1% PCPO <1% 2022-05-20 2022-05-21 OLP 65% NDP 35% GPO <1% PCPO <1% 2022-05-21 2022-05-22 OLP 64% NDP 36% GPO <1% PCPO <1% 2022-05-22 2022-05-23 OLP 66% NDP 34% GPO <1% PCPO <1% 2022-05-23 2022-05-24 OLP 68% NDP 32% GPO <1% PCPO <1% 2022-05-24 2022-05-25 OLP 69% NDP 31% PCPO <1% GPO <1% 2022-05-25 2022-05-26 OLP 69% NDP 31% GPO <1% PCPO <1% 2022-05-26 2022-05-27 NDP 81% OLP 19% GPO <1% PCPO <1% 2022-05-27 2022-05-28 NDP 77% OLP 23% GPO <1% PCPO <1% 2022-05-28 2022-05-29 NDP 77% OLP 23% PCPO <1% GPO <1% 2022-05-29 2022-05-30 NDP 76% OLP 24% PCPO <1% GPO <1% 2022-05-30 2022-05-31 NDP 76% OLP 24% PCPO <1% GPO <1% 2022-05-31 2022-06-01 NDP 84% OLP 16% PCPO <1% GPO <1% 2022-06-01 2022-06-03 NDP >99% GPO <1% PCPO <1% OLP <1% 2022-06-03 2022-12-30 NDP >99% OLP <1% GPO <1% PCPO <1% 2022-12-30 2023-02-15 NDP 99% OLP 1% GPO <1% PCPO <1% 2023-02-15 2023-03-09 NDP 99% OLP 1% GPO <1% PCPO <1% 2023-03-09 2023-03-17 NDP 99% OLP 1% GPO <1% PCPO <1% 2023-03-17 2023-04-16 NDP >99% OLP <1% GPO <1% PCPO <1% 2023-04-16 2023-07-07 NDP >99% OLP <1% GPO <1% PCPO <1% 2023-07-07 2023-07-22 NDP >99% OLP <1% GPO <1% PCPO <1% 2023-07-22 2023-07-28 NDP >99% OLP <1% GPO <1% PCPO <1% 2023-07-28 2023-08-26 NDP >99% OLP <1% GPO <1% PCPO <1% 2023-08-26 2023-10-07 NDP >99% OLP <1% GPO <1% PCPO <1% 2023-10-07 2023-10-23 NDP >99% OLP <1% GPO <1% PCPO <1% 2023-10-23 2023-12-01 NDP >99% OLP <1% GPO <1% PCPO <1% 2023-12-01 2023-12-20 NDP >99% OLP <1% GPO <1% PCPO <1% 2023-12-20 2024-02-02 NDP 99% OLP 1% GPO <1% PCPO <1% 2024-02-02 2024-02-20 NDP 90% OLP 10% GPO <1% PCPO <1% 2024-02-20 2024-03-05 NDP 89% OLP 11% GPO <1% PCPO <1% 2024-03-05 2024-04-04 NDP 96% OLP 4% GPO <1% PCPO <1% 2024-04-04 2024-05-03 NDP 96% OLP 4% GPO <1% PCPO <1% 2024-05-03 2024-06-30 NDP 98% OLP 2% GPO <1% PCPO <1% 2024-06-30

Recent electoral history | Spadina—Fort York



2014 2018 2022 Proj. NDP 26.7% 49.7% 46.1% 42% ± 9% OLP 48.3% 23.7% 28.0% 30% ± 8% PCPO 17.5% 21.7% 18.3% 18% ± 6% GPO 5.4% 3.7% 5.6% 7% ± 4% NBPO 0.0% 0.0% 1.7% 1% ± 2%