logo
Ontario

Spadina—Fort York


MPP : Chris Glover (NDP)
Latest projection: June 7, 2025
Likely NDP

Recent electoral history | Spadina—Fort York


2014 2018 2022 Proj. NDP 26.7% 49.7% 46.1% 44% ± 9% OLP 48.3% 23.7% 28.0% 32% ± 8% PCPO 17.5% 21.7% 18.3% 21% ± 7% GPO 5.4% 3.7% 5.6% 3% ± 2%

Spadina—Fort York 44% ± 9%▼ NDP 32% ± 8% OLP 21% ± 7%▲ PCPO NDP 2022 46.1% 338Canada Popular vote projection | June 7, 2025
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Spadina—Fort York 98%▼ NDP 2%▲ OLP <1% PCPO Odds of winning | June 7, 2025
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.9%), likely (90% to 99.9%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).


Popular vote projection | Spadina—Fort York

OLP 32% ± 8% PCPO 21% ± 7% NDP 44% ± 9% Popular vote projection % | Spadina—Fort York 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2025-02-01 2025-03-01 2025-04-01 2025-05-01 2025-06-01 2025-07-01 2025-08-01 2025-09-01 2025-10-01 2025-11-01 2025-12-01 Election 2025 OLP PCPO NDP June 7, 2025 2025-01-27 NDP 40% OLP 30% PCPO 21% 2025-01-27 2025-01-29 NDP 40% OLP 30% PCPO 21% 2025-01-29 2025-01-31 NDP 40% OLP 30% PCPO 23% 2025-01-31 2025-02-02 NDP 40% OLP 30% PCPO 23% 2025-02-02 2025-02-03 NDP 40% OLP 30% PCPO 23% 2025-02-03 2025-02-04 NDP 39% OLP 31% PCPO 23% 2025-02-04 2025-02-05 NDP 39% OLP 31% PCPO 23% 2025-02-05 2025-02-06 NDP 39% OLP 30% PCPO 23% 2025-02-06 2025-02-07 NDP 39% OLP 30% PCPO 23% 2025-02-07 2025-02-08 NDP 39% OLP 30% PCPO 23% 2025-02-08 2025-02-09 NDP 40% OLP 30% PCPO 23% 2025-02-09 2025-02-10 NDP 39% OLP 30% PCPO 23% 2025-02-10 2025-02-11 NDP 38% OLP 31% PCPO 23% 2025-02-11 2025-02-12 NDP 37% OLP 31% PCPO 24% 2025-02-12 2025-02-13 NDP 38% OLP 32% PCPO 24% 2025-02-13 2025-02-14 NDP 37% OLP 32% PCPO 24% 2025-02-14 2025-02-15 NDP 37% OLP 32% PCPO 24% 2025-02-15 2025-02-16 NDP 37% OLP 32% PCPO 24% 2025-02-16 2025-02-17 NDP 38% OLP 32% PCPO 23% 2025-02-17 2025-02-18 NDP 38% OLP 32% PCPO 23% 2025-02-18 2025-02-19 NDP 37% OLP 32% PCPO 24% 2025-02-19 2025-02-20 NDP 37% OLP 32% PCPO 24% 2025-02-20 2025-02-21 NDP 37% OLP 32% PCPO 23% 2025-02-21 2025-02-22 NDP 38% OLP 32% PCPO 24% 2025-02-22 2025-02-23 NDP 38% OLP 32% PCPO 23% 2025-02-23 2025-02-24 NDP 38% OLP 32% PCPO 23% 2025-02-24 2025-02-25 NDP 38% OLP 32% PCPO 23% 2025-02-25 2025-02-26 NDP 37% OLP 32% PCPO 24% 2025-02-26 2025-02-27 NDP 37% OLP 32% PCPO 24% 2025-02-27 2025-02-28 NDP 45% OLP 32% PCPO 20% 2025-02-28 2025-06-07 NDP 44% OLP 32% PCPO 21% 2025-06-07

Odds of winning | Spadina—Fort York

OLP 2% NDP 98% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2025-02-01 2025-03-01 2025-04-01 2025-05-01 2025-06-01 2025-07-01 2025-08-01 2025-09-01 2025-10-01 2025-11-01 2025-12-01 Election 2025 OLP NDP June 7, 2025 2025-01-27 NDP 96% OLP 4% 2025-01-27 2025-01-29 NDP 96% OLP 4% 2025-01-29 2025-01-31 NDP 97% OLP 3% 2025-01-31 2025-02-02 NDP 97% OLP 3% 2025-02-02 2025-02-03 NDP 97% OLP 3% 2025-02-03 2025-02-04 NDP 93% OLP 7% 2025-02-04 2025-02-05 NDP 93% OLP 7% 2025-02-05 2025-02-06 NDP 93% OLP 7% 2025-02-06 2025-02-07 NDP 94% OLP 6% 2025-02-07 2025-02-08 NDP 94% OLP 6% 2025-02-08 2025-02-09 NDP 97% OLP 3% 2025-02-09 2025-02-10 NDP 95% OLP 5% 2025-02-10 2025-02-11 NDP 90% OLP 10% 2025-02-11 2025-02-12 NDP 85% OLP 15% 2025-02-12 2025-02-13 NDP 86% OLP 14% 2025-02-13 2025-02-14 NDP 85% OLP 15% 2025-02-14 2025-02-15 NDP 84% OLP 16% 2025-02-15 2025-02-16 NDP 85% OLP 15% 2025-02-16 2025-02-17 NDP 84% OLP 16% 2025-02-17 2025-02-18 NDP 83% OLP 17% 2025-02-18 2025-02-19 NDP 83% OLP 17% 2025-02-19 2025-02-20 NDP 84% OLP 16% 2025-02-20 2025-02-21 NDP 83% OLP 17% 2025-02-21 2025-02-22 NDP 86% OLP 14% 2025-02-22 2025-02-23 NDP 86% OLP 14% 2025-02-23 2025-02-24 NDP 86% OLP 14% 2025-02-24 2025-02-25 NDP 87% OLP 13% 2025-02-25 2025-02-26 NDP 83% OLP 17% 2025-02-26 2025-02-27 NDP 81% OLP 19% 2025-02-27 2025-02-28 NDP >99% OLP <1% 2025-02-28 2025-06-07 NDP 98% OLP 2% 2025-06-07