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Recent electoral history | Spadina—Fort York


2018 2022 2025 Projection NDP 47% ± 10% 49.7% 46.1% 44.7% OLP 29% ± 9% 23.7% 28.0% 31.7% PC 20% ± 7% 21.7% 18.3% 20.3% GPO 2% ± 2% 3.7% 5.6% 2.7%

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338Canada Spadina—Fort York projection

Latest update: February 18, 2026

Spadina—Fort York 37% 57% 47% ± 10% NDP 21% 38% 29% ± 9% OLP 14% 27% 20% ± 7% PC NDP 2025 44.68% 338Canada Popular vote projection | February 18, 2026
Methodology note. This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Spadina—Fort York >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% PC Odds of winning | February 18, 2026
Methodology note. These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of simulated elections.


Popular vote projection | Spadina—Fort York

OLP 29% ± 9% PC 20% ± 7% NDP 47% ± 10% Popular vote projection % | Spadina—Fort York 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 2026► 2026-01-01 2026-03-01 2026-05-01 2026-07-01 Election 2025 OLP PC NDP February 18, 2026 2025-01-27 NDP 40% OLP 30% PC 21% 2025-01-27 2025-01-29 NDP 40% OLP 30% PC 21% 2025-01-29 2025-01-31 NDP 40% OLP 30% PC 23% 2025-01-31 2025-02-02 NDP 40% OLP 30% PC 23% 2025-02-02 2025-02-03 NDP 40% OLP 30% PC 23% 2025-02-03 2025-02-04 NDP 39% OLP 31% PC 23% 2025-02-04 2025-02-05 NDP 39% OLP 31% PC 23% 2025-02-05 2025-02-06 NDP 39% OLP 30% PC 23% 2025-02-06 2025-02-07 NDP 39% OLP 30% PC 23% 2025-02-07 2025-02-08 NDP 39% OLP 30% PC 23% 2025-02-08 2025-02-09 NDP 40% OLP 30% PC 23% 2025-02-09 2025-02-10 NDP 39% OLP 30% PC 23% 2025-02-10 2025-02-11 NDP 38% OLP 31% PC 23% 2025-02-11 2025-02-12 NDP 37% OLP 31% PC 24% 2025-02-12 2025-02-13 NDP 38% OLP 32% PC 24% 2025-02-13 2025-02-14 NDP 37% OLP 32% PC 24% 2025-02-14 2025-02-15 NDP 37% OLP 32% PC 24% 2025-02-15 2025-02-16 NDP 37% OLP 32% PC 24% 2025-02-16 2025-02-17 NDP 38% OLP 32% PC 23% 2025-02-17 2025-02-18 NDP 38% OLP 32% PC 23% 2025-02-18 2025-02-19 NDP 37% OLP 32% PC 24% 2025-02-19 2025-02-20 NDP 37% OLP 32% PC 24% 2025-02-20 2025-02-21 NDP 37% OLP 32% PC 23% 2025-02-21 2025-02-22 NDP 38% OLP 32% PC 24% 2025-02-22 2025-02-23 NDP 38% OLP 32% PC 23% 2025-02-23 2025-02-24 NDP 38% OLP 32% PC 23% 2025-02-24 2025-02-25 NDP 38% OLP 32% PC 23% 2025-02-25 2025-02-26 NDP 37% OLP 32% PC 24% 2025-02-26 2025-02-27 NDP 37% OLP 32% PC 24% 2025-02-27 2025-02-28 NDP 45% OLP 32% PC 20% 2025-02-28 2025-06-07 NDP 44% OLP 32% PC 21% 2025-06-07 2025-06-27 NDP 44% OLP 32% PC 21% 2025-06-27 2025-07-27 NDP 44% OLP 32% PC 21% 2025-07-27 2025-08-31 NDP 40% OLP 32% PC 24% 2025-08-31 2025-10-21 NDP 42% OLP 32% PC 23% 2025-10-21 2025-11-23 NDP 45% OLP 30% PC 22% 2025-11-23 2025-12-20 NDP 47% OLP 29% PC 21% 2025-12-20 2026-01-25 NDP 47% OLP 29% PC 21% 2026-01-25 2026-02-18 NDP 47% OLP 29% PC 20% 2026-02-18

Odds of winning | Spadina—Fort York

OLP <1% NDP >99% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 2026► 2026-01-01 2026-03-01 2026-05-01 2026-07-01 Election 2025 OLP NDP February 18, 2026 2025-01-27 NDP 96% OLP 4% 2025-01-27 2025-01-29 NDP 96% OLP 4% 2025-01-29 2025-01-31 NDP 97% OLP 3% 2025-01-31 2025-02-02 NDP 97% OLP 3% 2025-02-02 2025-02-03 NDP 97% OLP 3% 2025-02-03 2025-02-04 NDP 93% OLP 7% 2025-02-04 2025-02-05 NDP 93% OLP 7% 2025-02-05 2025-02-06 NDP 93% OLP 7% 2025-02-06 2025-02-07 NDP 94% OLP 6% 2025-02-07 2025-02-08 NDP 94% OLP 6% 2025-02-08 2025-02-09 NDP 97% OLP 3% 2025-02-09 2025-02-10 NDP 95% OLP 5% 2025-02-10 2025-02-11 NDP 90% OLP 10% 2025-02-11 2025-02-12 NDP 85% OLP 15% 2025-02-12 2025-02-13 NDP 86% OLP 14% 2025-02-13 2025-02-14 NDP 85% OLP 15% 2025-02-14 2025-02-15 NDP 84% OLP 16% 2025-02-15 2025-02-16 NDP 85% OLP 15% 2025-02-16 2025-02-17 NDP 84% OLP 16% 2025-02-17 2025-02-18 NDP 83% OLP 17% 2025-02-18 2025-02-19 NDP 83% OLP 17% 2025-02-19 2025-02-20 NDP 84% OLP 16% 2025-02-20 2025-02-21 NDP 83% OLP 17% 2025-02-21 2025-02-22 NDP 86% OLP 14% 2025-02-22 2025-02-23 NDP 86% OLP 14% 2025-02-23 2025-02-24 NDP 86% OLP 14% 2025-02-24 2025-02-25 NDP 87% OLP 13% 2025-02-25 2025-02-26 NDP 83% OLP 17% 2025-02-26 2025-02-27 NDP 81% OLP 19% 2025-02-27 2025-02-28 NDP >99% OLP <1% 2025-02-28 2025-06-07 NDP 98% OLP 2% 2025-06-07 2025-06-27 NDP 98% OLP 2% 2025-06-27 2025-07-27 NDP 98% OLP 2% 2025-07-27 2025-08-31 NDP 92% OLP 8% 2025-08-31 2025-10-21 NDP 96% OLP 4% 2025-10-21 2025-11-23 NDP 99% OLP 1% 2025-11-23 2025-12-20 NDP >99% OLP <1% 2025-12-20 2026-01-25 NDP >99% OLP <1% 2026-01-25 2026-02-18 NDP >99% OLP <1% 2026-02-18