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Ontario

Spadina—Fort York


MPP elect: Chris Glover (NDP)
Latest projection: February 28, 2025
Safe NDP

Candidates | Spadina—Fort York


PC Party of Ontario Omar Farhat
Liberal Party April Engelberg
Ontario NDP Chris Glover
Green Party Patrick Macklem
None of the Above Party Ron Shaw

Candidates listed here are on the Elections Ontario website.

Spadina—Fort York 45% ± 0%▲ NDP 32% ± 0% OLP 20% ± 0%▼ PCPO NDP 2022 46.1% 338Canada Popular vote projection | February 28, 2025
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Spadina—Fort York >99%▲ NDP <1%▼ OLP <1% PCPO Odds of winning | February 28, 2025
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).


Popular vote projection | Spadina—Fort York

OLP 32% ± 0% PCPO 20% ± 0% NDP 45% ± 0% Popular vote projection % | Spadina—Fort York 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2025-02-01 2025-02-15 2025-03-01 Election 2025 Campaign begins OLP PCPO NDP February 28, 2025 2025-01-27 NDP 40% OLP 30% PCPO 21% 2025-01-27 2025-01-29 NDP 40% OLP 30% PCPO 21% 2025-01-29 2025-01-31 NDP 40% OLP 30% PCPO 23% 2025-01-31 2025-02-02 NDP 40% OLP 30% PCPO 23% 2025-02-02 2025-02-03 NDP 40% OLP 30% PCPO 23% 2025-02-03 2025-02-04 NDP 39% OLP 31% PCPO 23% 2025-02-04 2025-02-05 NDP 39% OLP 31% PCPO 23% 2025-02-05 2025-02-06 NDP 39% OLP 30% PCPO 23% 2025-02-06 2025-02-07 NDP 39% OLP 30% PCPO 23% 2025-02-07 2025-02-08 NDP 39% OLP 30% PCPO 23% 2025-02-08 2025-02-09 NDP 40% OLP 30% PCPO 23% 2025-02-09 2025-02-10 NDP 39% OLP 30% PCPO 23% 2025-02-10 2025-02-11 NDP 38% OLP 31% PCPO 23% 2025-02-11 2025-02-12 NDP 37% OLP 31% PCPO 24% 2025-02-12 2025-02-13 NDP 38% OLP 32% PCPO 24% 2025-02-13 2025-02-14 NDP 37% OLP 32% PCPO 24% 2025-02-14 2025-02-15 NDP 37% OLP 32% PCPO 24% 2025-02-15 2025-02-16 NDP 37% OLP 32% PCPO 24% 2025-02-16 2025-02-17 NDP 38% OLP 32% PCPO 23% 2025-02-17 2025-02-18 NDP 38% OLP 32% PCPO 23% 2025-02-18 2025-02-19 NDP 37% OLP 32% PCPO 24% 2025-02-19 2025-02-20 NDP 37% OLP 32% PCPO 24% 2025-02-20 2025-02-21 NDP 37% OLP 32% PCPO 23% 2025-02-21 2025-02-22 NDP 38% OLP 32% PCPO 24% 2025-02-22 2025-02-23 NDP 38% OLP 32% PCPO 23% 2025-02-23 2025-02-24 NDP 38% OLP 32% PCPO 23% 2025-02-24 2025-02-25 NDP 38% OLP 32% PCPO 23% 2025-02-25 2025-02-26 NDP 37% OLP 32% PCPO 24% 2025-02-26 2025-02-27 NDP 37% OLP 32% PCPO 24% 2025-02-27 2025-02-28 NDP 45% OLP 32% PCPO 20% 2025-02-28

Odds of winning | Spadina—Fort York

OLP <1% NDP >99% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2025-02-01 2025-02-15 2025-03-01 Election 2025 Campaign begins OLP NDP February 28, 2025 2025-01-27 NDP 96% OLP 4% 2025-01-27 2025-01-29 NDP 96% OLP 4% 2025-01-29 2025-01-31 NDP 97% OLP 3% 2025-01-31 2025-02-02 NDP 97% OLP 3% 2025-02-02 2025-02-03 NDP 97% OLP 3% 2025-02-03 2025-02-04 NDP 93% OLP 7% 2025-02-04 2025-02-05 NDP 93% OLP 7% 2025-02-05 2025-02-06 NDP 93% OLP 7% 2025-02-06 2025-02-07 NDP 94% OLP 6% 2025-02-07 2025-02-08 NDP 94% OLP 6% 2025-02-08 2025-02-09 NDP 97% OLP 3% 2025-02-09 2025-02-10 NDP 95% OLP 5% 2025-02-10 2025-02-11 NDP 90% OLP 10% 2025-02-11 2025-02-12 NDP 85% OLP 15% 2025-02-12 2025-02-13 NDP 86% OLP 14% 2025-02-13 2025-02-14 NDP 85% OLP 15% 2025-02-14 2025-02-15 NDP 84% OLP 16% 2025-02-15 2025-02-16 NDP 85% OLP 15% 2025-02-16 2025-02-17 NDP 84% OLP 16% 2025-02-17 2025-02-18 NDP 83% OLP 17% 2025-02-18 2025-02-19 NDP 83% OLP 17% 2025-02-19 2025-02-20 NDP 84% OLP 16% 2025-02-20 2025-02-21 NDP 83% OLP 17% 2025-02-21 2025-02-22 NDP 86% OLP 14% 2025-02-22 2025-02-23 NDP 86% OLP 14% 2025-02-23 2025-02-24 NDP 86% OLP 14% 2025-02-24 2025-02-25 NDP 87% OLP 13% 2025-02-25 2025-02-26 NDP 83% OLP 17% 2025-02-26 2025-02-27 NDP 81% OLP 19% 2025-02-27 2025-02-28 NDP >99% OLP <1% 2025-02-28

Recent electoral history | Spadina—Fort York



2014 2018 2022 Proj. NDP 26.7% 49.7% 46.1% 45% ± 0% OLP 48.3% 23.7% 28.0% 32% ± 0% PCPO 17.5% 21.7% 18.3% 20% ± 0% GPO 5.4% 3.7% 5.6% 3% ± 0%