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Recent electoral history | Spadina—Fort York


2018 2022 2025 Projection NDP 46% ± 10% 49.7% 46.1% 44.7% OLP 33% ± 9% 23.7% 28.0% 31.7% PC 18% ± 7% 21.7% 18.3% 20.3% GPO 2% ± 2% 3.7% 5.6% 2.7%

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338Canada Spadina—Fort York projection

Latest update: August 7, 2026

Spadina—Fort York 36% 56% 46% ± 10% NDP 24% 42% 33% ± 9% OLP 11% 25% 18% ± 7% PC NDP 2025 44.68% 338Canada Popular vote projection | August 7, 2026
Methodology note. This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Spadina—Fort York 98%▲ NDP 2%▼ OLP <1% PC Odds of winning | August 7, 2026
Methodology note. These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of simulated elections.

338Canada Ontario Projection | Spadina—Fort York

Odds of winning | Spadina—Fort York