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Recent electoral history | Carleton


2018 2022 2025 Projection PC 51% ± 9% 51.3% 48.1% 49.7% OLP 37% ± 9% 19.4% 26.9% 38.6% NDP 7% ± 3% 22.5% 15.7% 7.0% GPO 2% ± 2% 4.0% 5.5% 1.8% NBPO 1% ± 1% 0.0% 2.2% 1.3% ONP 1% ± 1% 0.0% 1.1% 0.7% IND 0% ± 1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.4%

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338Canada Carleton projection

Latest update: February 18, 2026

Carleton 42% 61% 51% ± 9% PC 28% 46% 37% ± 9% OLP 3% 10% 7% ± 3% NDP PC 2025 49.66% 338Canada Popular vote projection | February 18, 2026
Methodology note. This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Carleton 99% PC 1% OLP <1% NDP Odds of winning | February 18, 2026
Methodology note. These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of simulated elections.

338Canada Ontario Projection | Carleton

Odds of winning | Carleton