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Ontario

Carleton


MPP: Ghamari, Goldie (IND)
Latest projection: February 20, 2025
Safe PCPO

Candidates | Carleton


PC Party of Ontario George Darouze
Liberal Party Brandon Bay
Ontario NDP Sherin Faili
Green Party Mystic Plaunt
New Blue Party Rob Stocki
Ontario Party Myles Dear
Libertarian Party Bruce Anthony Faulkner
Independent Brian Hull

Candidates listed here are on the Elections Ontario website.

Carleton 53% ± 9% PCPO 28% ± 8% OLP 11% ± 5% NDP 6% ± 4% GPO PCPO 2022 48.1% 338Canada Popular vote projection | February 20, 2025
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Carleton >99% PCPO <1% OLP <1% NDP Odds of winning | February 20, 2025
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).


Popular vote projection | Carleton

OLP 28% ± 8% PCPO 53% ± 9% NDP 11% ± 5% GPO 6% ± 4% Popular vote projection % | Carleton 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2025-02-01 2025-02-15 2025-03-01 Election 2025 Campaign begins OLP PCPO NDP GPO February 20, 2025 2025-01-27 PCPO 49% OLP 28% NDP 14% GPO 7% 2025-01-27 2025-01-29 PCPO 50% OLP 28% NDP 14% GPO 7% 2025-01-29 2025-01-31 PCPO 52% OLP 27% NDP 13% GPO 6% 2025-01-31 2025-02-02 PCPO 52% OLP 26% NDP 13% GPO 6% 2025-02-02 2025-02-03 PCPO 52% OLP 27% NDP 13% GPO 6% 2025-02-03 2025-02-04 PCPO 52% OLP 28% NDP 12% GPO 6% 2025-02-04 2025-02-05 PCPO 52% OLP 28% NDP 12% GPO 6% 2025-02-05 2025-02-06 PCPO 53% OLP 27% NDP 12% GPO 6% 2025-02-06 2025-02-07 PCPO 53% OLP 27% NDP 12% GPO 6% 2025-02-07 2025-02-08 PCPO 52% OLP 27% NDP 12% GPO 6% 2025-02-08 2025-02-09 PCPO 53% OLP 27% NDP 13% GPO 6% 2025-02-09 2025-02-10 PCPO 53% OLP 27% NDP 12% GPO 6% 2025-02-10 2025-02-11 PCPO 53% OLP 28% NDP 12% GPO 6% 2025-02-11 2025-02-12 PCPO 53% OLP 28% NDP 11% GPO 6% 2025-02-12 2025-02-13 PCPO 53% OLP 28% NDP 11% GPO 6% 2025-02-13 2025-02-14 PCPO 53% OLP 28% NDP 11% GPO 6% 2025-02-14 2025-02-15 PCPO 53% OLP 28% NDP 11% GPO 6% 2025-02-15 2025-02-16 PCPO 53% OLP 28% NDP 11% GPO 6% 2025-02-16 2025-02-17 PCPO 52% OLP 29% NDP 11% GPO 6% 2025-02-17 2025-02-18 PCPO 52% OLP 29% NDP 11% GPO 6% 2025-02-18 2025-02-19 PCPO 53% OLP 28% NDP 11% GPO 6% 2025-02-19 2025-02-20 PCPO 53% OLP 28% NDP 11% GPO 6% 2025-02-20

Odds of winning | Carleton

OLP <1% PCPO >99% NDP <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2025-02-01 2025-02-15 2025-03-01 Election 2025 Campaign begins OLP PCPO NDP February 20, 2025 2025-01-27 PCPO >99% OLP <1% NDP <1% 2025-01-27 2025-01-29 PCPO >99% OLP <1% NDP <1% 2025-01-29 2025-01-31 PCPO >99% OLP <1% NDP <1% 2025-01-31 2025-02-02 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-02 2025-02-03 PCPO >99% OLP <1% NDP <1% 2025-02-03 2025-02-04 PCPO >99% OLP <1% NDP <1% 2025-02-04 2025-02-05 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-05 2025-02-06 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-06 2025-02-07 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-07 2025-02-08 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-08 2025-02-09 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-09 2025-02-10 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-10 2025-02-11 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-11 2025-02-12 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-12 2025-02-13 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-13 2025-02-14 PCPO >99% OLP <1% NDP <1% 2025-02-14 2025-02-15 PCPO >99% OLP <1% NDP <1% 2025-02-15 2025-02-16 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-16 2025-02-17 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-17 2025-02-18 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-18 2025-02-19 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-19 2025-02-20 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-20

Recent electoral history | Carleton



2014 2018 2022 Proj. PCPO 53.1% 51.3% 48.1% 53% ± 9% OLP 28.0% 19.4% 26.9% 28% ± 8% NDP 12.3% 22.5% 15.7% 11% ± 5% GPO 5.9% 4.0% 5.5% 6% ± 4% NBPO 0.0% 0.0% 2.2% 1% ± 1% ONP 0.0% 0.0% 1.1% 0% ± 1%