logo
Ontario

Recent electoral history | Parkdale—High Park


2018 2022 2025 Projection NDP 48% ± 10% 59.4% 54.0% 45.4% OLP 29% ± 9% 17.0% 22.4% 30.8% PC 18% ± 6% 18.0% 14.7% 17.8% GPO 4% ± 3% 4.7% 6.1% 4.4% NBPO 1% ± 1% 0.0% 1.3% 1.0%

Latest from the 338Canada newsletter

Loading latest analysis…


Ontario flag

338Canada Parkdale—High Park projection

Latest update: January 25, 2026

Parkdale—High Park 38% 57% 48% ± 10% NDP 20% 37% 29% ± 9% OLP 12% 24% 18% ± 6% PC 1% 7% 4% ± 3% GPO NDP 2022 45.35% 338Canada Popular vote projection | January 25, 2026
Methodology note. This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Parkdale—High Park >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% PC Odds of winning | January 25, 2026
Methodology note. These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of simulated elections.


Popular vote projection | Parkdale—High Park

OLP 29% ± 9% PC 18% ± 6% NDP 48% ± 10% GPO 4% ± 3% Popular vote projection % | Parkdale—High Park 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 2026► 2026-01-01 2026-03-01 2026-05-01 Election 2025 OLP PC NDP GPO January 25, 2026 2025-01-27 NDP 48% OLP 25% PC 17% GPO 8% 2025-01-27 2025-01-29 NDP 48% OLP 25% PC 17% GPO 8% 2025-01-29 2025-01-31 NDP 48% OLP 24% PC 19% GPO 7% 2025-01-31 2025-02-02 NDP 48% OLP 24% PC 19% GPO 7% 2025-02-02 2025-02-03 NDP 48% OLP 25% PC 19% GPO 7% 2025-02-03 2025-02-04 NDP 47% OLP 25% PC 19% GPO 7% 2025-02-04 2025-02-05 NDP 47% OLP 25% PC 19% GPO 7% 2025-02-05 2025-02-06 NDP 46% OLP 25% PC 20% GPO 7% 2025-02-06 2025-02-07 NDP 47% OLP 25% PC 19% GPO 7% 2025-02-07 2025-02-08 NDP 47% OLP 25% PC 19% GPO 7% 2025-02-08 2025-02-09 NDP 48% OLP 24% PC 19% GPO 7% 2025-02-09 2025-02-10 NDP 47% OLP 25% PC 19% GPO 7% 2025-02-10 2025-02-11 NDP 46% OLP 25% PC 20% GPO 8% 2025-02-11 2025-02-12 NDP 45% OLP 26% PC 20% GPO 8% 2025-02-12 2025-02-13 NDP 45% OLP 26% PC 20% GPO 8% 2025-02-13 2025-02-14 NDP 45% OLP 26% PC 20% GPO 8% 2025-02-14 2025-02-15 NDP 45% OLP 26% PC 20% GPO 8% 2025-02-15 2025-02-16 NDP 45% OLP 26% PC 20% GPO 8% 2025-02-16 2025-02-17 NDP 45% OLP 27% PC 19% GPO 8% 2025-02-17 2025-02-18 NDP 45% OLP 27% PC 19% GPO 8% 2025-02-18 2025-02-19 NDP 45% OLP 26% PC 20% GPO 8% 2025-02-19 2025-02-20 NDP 45% OLP 26% PC 20% GPO 8% 2025-02-20 2025-02-21 NDP 45% OLP 26% PC 20% GPO 8% 2025-02-21 2025-02-22 NDP 45% OLP 26% PC 20% GPO 8% 2025-02-22 2025-02-23 NDP 45% OLP 26% PC 20% GPO 8% 2025-02-23 2025-02-24 NDP 45% OLP 26% PC 20% GPO 8% 2025-02-24 2025-02-25 NDP 45% OLP 26% PC 20% GPO 8% 2025-02-25 2025-02-26 NDP 45% OLP 26% PC 20% GPO 8% 2025-02-26 2025-02-27 NDP 45% OLP 27% PC 20% GPO 7% 2025-02-27 2025-02-28 NDP 45% OLP 31% PC 18% GPO 4% 2025-02-28 2025-06-07 NDP 45% OLP 31% PC 18% GPO 4% 2025-06-07 2025-06-27 NDP 45% OLP 31% PC 18% GPO 4% 2025-06-27 2025-07-27 NDP 44% OLP 31% PC 19% GPO 4% 2025-07-27 2025-08-31 NDP 41% OLP 32% PC 21% GPO 4% 2025-08-31 2025-10-21 NDP 43% OLP 31% PC 21% GPO 4% 2025-10-21 2025-11-23 NDP 45% OLP 29% PC 19% GPO 4% 2025-11-23 2025-12-20 NDP 48% OLP 29% PC 18% GPO 4% 2025-12-20 2026-01-25 NDP 48% OLP 29% PC 18% GPO 4% 2026-01-25

Odds of winning | Parkdale—High Park

OLP <1% NDP >99% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 2026► 2026-01-01 2026-03-01 2026-05-01 Election 2025 OLP NDP January 25, 2026 2025-01-27 NDP >99% OLP <1% 2025-01-27 2025-01-29 NDP >99% OLP <1% 2025-01-29 2025-01-31 NDP >99% OLP <1% 2025-01-31 2025-02-02 NDP >99% OLP <1% 2025-02-02 2025-02-03 NDP >99% OLP <1% 2025-02-03 2025-02-04 NDP >99% OLP <1% 2025-02-04 2025-02-05 NDP >99% OLP <1% 2025-02-05 2025-02-06 NDP >99% OLP <1% 2025-02-06 2025-02-07 NDP >99% OLP <1% 2025-02-07 2025-02-08 NDP >99% OLP <1% 2025-02-08 2025-02-09 NDP >99% OLP <1% 2025-02-09 2025-02-10 NDP >99% OLP <1% 2025-02-10 2025-02-11 NDP >99% OLP <1% 2025-02-11 2025-02-12 NDP >99% OLP <1% 2025-02-12 2025-02-13 NDP >99% OLP <1% 2025-02-13 2025-02-14 NDP >99% OLP <1% 2025-02-14 2025-02-15 NDP >99% OLP <1% 2025-02-15 2025-02-16 NDP >99% OLP <1% 2025-02-16 2025-02-17 NDP >99% OLP <1% 2025-02-17 2025-02-18 NDP >99% OLP <1% 2025-02-18 2025-02-19 NDP >99% OLP <1% 2025-02-19 2025-02-20 NDP >99% OLP <1% 2025-02-20 2025-02-21 NDP >99% OLP <1% 2025-02-21 2025-02-22 NDP >99% OLP <1% 2025-02-22 2025-02-23 NDP >99% OLP <1% 2025-02-23 2025-02-24 NDP >99% OLP <1% 2025-02-24 2025-02-25 NDP >99% OLP <1% 2025-02-25 2025-02-26 NDP >99% OLP <1% 2025-02-26 2025-02-27 NDP >99% OLP <1% 2025-02-27 2025-02-28 NDP >99% OLP <1% 2025-02-28 2025-06-07 NDP 99% OLP 1% 2025-06-07 2025-06-27 NDP 99% OLP 1% 2025-06-27 2025-07-27 NDP 99% OLP 1% 2025-07-27 2025-08-31 NDP 95% OLP 5% 2025-08-31 2025-10-21 NDP 98% OLP 2% 2025-10-21 2025-11-23 NDP >99% OLP <1% 2025-11-23 2025-12-20 NDP >99% OLP <1% 2025-12-20 2026-01-25 NDP >99% OLP <1% 2026-01-25