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Ontario

Parkdale—High Park


MPP: Karpoche, Bhutila (NDP)

Latest projection: January 20, 2025
Safe NDP
Parkdale—High Park 50% ± 9% NDP 25% ± 8%▲ OLP 15% ± 6%▼ PCPO 7% ± 4%▼ GPO NDP 2022 54.0% 338Canada Popular vote projection | January 20, 2025
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Parkdale—High Park >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% PCPO Odds of winning | January 20, 2025
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).


Popular vote projection | Parkdale—High Park

OLP 25% ± 8% PCPO 15% ± 6% NDP 50% ± 9% GPO 7% ± 4% Popular vote projection % | Parkdale—High Park 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 2025-09-01 OLP PCPO NDP GPO January 20, 2025 2023-02-15 NDP 51% OLP 24% PCPO 15% GPO 7% 2023-02-15 2023-03-09 NDP 51% OLP 24% PCPO 15% GPO 7% 2023-03-09 2023-03-17 NDP 51% OLP 24% PCPO 15% GPO 7% 2023-03-17 2023-04-16 NDP 52% OLP 23% PCPO 15% GPO 7% 2023-04-16 2023-07-07 NDP 53% OLP 22% PCPO 12% GPO 9% 2023-07-07 2023-07-22 NDP 54% OLP 23% PCPO 12% GPO 9% 2023-07-22 2023-07-28 NDP 53% OLP 23% PCPO 13% GPO 8% 2023-07-28 2023-08-26 NDP 53% OLP 23% PCPO 13% GPO 8% 2023-08-26 2023-10-07 NDP 54% OLP 23% PCPO 12% GPO 8% 2023-10-07 2023-10-23 NDP 54% OLP 23% PCPO 13% GPO 8% 2023-10-23 2023-12-01 NDP 54% OLP 22% PCPO 14% GPO 8% 2023-12-01 2023-12-20 NDP 53% OLP 24% PCPO 13% GPO 8% 2023-12-20 2024-02-02 NDP 52% OLP 25% PCPO 13% GPO 8% 2024-02-02 2024-02-20 NDP 50% OLP 28% PCPO 12% GPO 8% 2024-02-20 2024-03-05 NDP 48% OLP 27% PCPO 14% GPO 8% 2024-03-05 2024-04-04 NDP 50% OLP 26% PCPO 14% GPO 8% 2024-04-04 2024-05-03 NDP 49% OLP 26% PCPO 14% GPO 8% 2024-05-03 2024-06-30 NDP 50% OLP 25% PCPO 15% GPO 8% 2024-06-30 2024-07-29 NDP 48% OLP 25% PCPO 16% GPO 8% 2024-07-29 2024-10-09 NDP 49% OLP 25% PCPO 15% GPO 8% 2024-10-09 2024-11-11 NDP 49% OLP 25% PCPO 15% GPO 8% 2024-11-11 2024-12-15 NDP 50% OLP 24% PCPO 16% GPO 8% 2024-12-15 2025-01-20 NDP 50% OLP 25% PCPO 15% GPO 7% 2025-01-20 Stiles NDP leader Crombie OLP leader

Odds of winning | Parkdale—High Park

OLP <1% NDP >99% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 2025-09-01 OLP NDP January 20, 2025 2023-02-15 NDP >99% OLP <1% 2023-02-15 2023-03-09 NDP >99% OLP <1% 2023-03-09 2023-03-17 NDP >99% OLP <1% 2023-03-17 2023-04-16 NDP >99% OLP <1% 2023-04-16 2023-07-07 NDP >99% OLP <1% 2023-07-07 2023-07-22 NDP >99% OLP <1% 2023-07-22 2023-07-28 NDP >99% OLP <1% 2023-07-28 2023-08-26 NDP >99% OLP <1% 2023-08-26 2023-10-07 NDP >99% OLP <1% 2023-10-07 2023-10-23 NDP >99% OLP <1% 2023-10-23 2023-12-01 NDP >99% OLP <1% 2023-12-01 2023-12-20 NDP >99% OLP <1% 2023-12-20 2024-02-02 NDP >99% OLP <1% 2024-02-02 2024-02-20 NDP >99% OLP <1% 2024-02-20 2024-03-05 NDP >99% OLP <1% 2024-03-05 2024-04-04 NDP >99% OLP <1% 2024-04-04 2024-05-03 NDP >99% OLP <1% 2024-05-03 2024-06-30 NDP >99% OLP <1% 2024-06-30 2024-07-29 NDP >99% OLP <1% 2024-07-29 2024-10-09 NDP >99% OLP <1% 2024-10-09 2024-11-11 NDP >99% OLP <1% 2024-11-11 2024-12-15 NDP >99% OLP <1% 2024-12-15 2025-01-20 NDP >99% OLP <1% 2025-01-20 Stiles NDP leader Crombie OLP leader

Recent electoral history | Parkdale—High Park



2014 2018 2022 Proj. NDP 40.8% 59.4% 54.0% 50% ± 9% OLP 39.6% 17.0% 22.4% 25% ± 8% PCPO 12.8% 18.0% 14.7% 15% ± 6% GPO 5.5% 4.7% 6.1% 7% ± 4% NBPO 0.0% 0.0% 1.3% 1% ± 1% ONP 0.0% 0.0% 0.8% 0% ± 1%