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Ontario

Parkdale—High Park


MPP: Karpoche, Bhutila (NDP)

Latest projection: December 15, 2024
Safe NDP
Parkdale—High Park 50% ± 9%▲ NDP 24% ± 7%▼ OLP 16% ± 6%▲ PCPO 8% ± 4% GPO NDP 2022 54.0% 338Canada Popular vote projection | December 15, 2024
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Parkdale—High Park >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% PCPO Odds of winning | December 15, 2024
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).


Popular vote projection | Parkdale—High Park

OLP 24% ± 7% PCPO 16% ± 6% NDP 50% ± 9% GPO 8% ± 4% Popular vote projection % | Parkdale—High Park 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2022-05-01 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 2025-09-01 Election 2022 OLP PCPO NDP GPO December 15, 2024 2022-04-30 NDP 45% OLP 26% PCPO 17% GPO 6% 2022-04-30 2022-05-03 NDP 46% OLP 26% PCPO 16% GPO 6% 2022-05-03 2022-05-04 NDP 45% OLP 26% PCPO 17% GPO 7% 2022-05-04 2022-05-05 NDP 45% OLP 27% PCPO 17% GPO 7% 2022-05-05 2022-05-06 NDP 45% OLP 26% PCPO 17% GPO 6% 2022-05-06 2022-05-07 NDP 45% OLP 26% PCPO 17% GPO 6% 2022-05-07 2022-05-08 NDP 45% OLP 26% PCPO 16% GPO 6% 2022-05-08 2022-05-09 NDP 45% OLP 27% PCPO 17% GPO 6% 2022-05-09 2022-05-10 NDP 44% OLP 27% PCPO 16% GPO 6% 2022-05-10 2022-05-11 NDP 45% OLP 27% PCPO 17% GPO 6% 2022-05-11 2022-05-12 NDP 44% OLP 27% PCPO 17% GPO 6% 2022-05-12 2022-05-13 NDP 44% OLP 27% PCPO 17% GPO 6% 2022-05-13 2022-05-14 NDP 44% OLP 26% PCPO 17% GPO 6% 2022-05-14 2022-05-15 NDP 44% OLP 26% PCPO 17% GPO 6% 2022-05-15 2022-05-16 NDP 44% OLP 27% PCPO 17% GPO 6% 2022-05-16 2022-05-17 NDP 42% OLP 28% PCPO 17% GPO 7% 2022-05-17 2022-05-18 NDP 41% OLP 28% PCPO 17% GPO 7% 2022-05-18 2022-05-19 NDP 41% OLP 27% PCPO 17% GPO 9% 2022-05-19 2022-05-20 NDP 39% OLP 28% PCPO 17% GPO 9% 2022-05-20 2022-05-21 NDP 39% OLP 28% PCPO 17% GPO 9% 2022-05-21 2022-05-22 NDP 39% OLP 28% PCPO 17% GPO 9% 2022-05-22 2022-05-23 NDP 39% OLP 28% PCPO 17% GPO 9% 2022-05-23 2022-05-24 NDP 39% OLP 28% PCPO 17% GPO 9% 2022-05-24 2022-05-25 NDP 38% OLP 28% PCPO 17% GPO 9% 2022-05-25 2022-05-26 NDP 38% OLP 28% PCPO 17% GPO 9% 2022-05-26 2022-05-27 NDP 39% OLP 27% PCPO 17% GPO 9% 2022-05-27 2022-05-28 NDP 38% OLP 27% PCPO 18% GPO 9% 2022-05-28 2022-05-29 NDP 38% OLP 27% PCPO 18% GPO 9% 2022-05-29 2022-05-30 NDP 42% OLP 27% PCPO 17% GPO 7% 2022-05-30 2022-05-31 NDP 42% OLP 27% PCPO 18% GPO 7% 2022-05-31 2022-06-01 NDP 42% OLP 26% PCPO 18% GPO 7% 2022-06-01 2022-06-03 NDP 54% OLP 22% PCPO 15% GPO 6% 2022-06-03 2022-12-30 NDP 54% OLP 22% PCPO 14% GPO 6% 2022-12-30 2023-02-15 NDP 51% OLP 24% PCPO 15% GPO 7% 2023-02-15 2023-03-09 NDP 51% OLP 24% PCPO 15% GPO 7% 2023-03-09 2023-03-17 NDP 51% OLP 24% PCPO 15% GPO 7% 2023-03-17 2023-04-16 NDP 52% OLP 23% PCPO 15% GPO 7% 2023-04-16 2023-07-07 NDP 53% OLP 22% PCPO 12% GPO 9% 2023-07-07 2023-07-22 NDP 54% OLP 23% PCPO 12% GPO 9% 2023-07-22 2023-07-28 NDP 53% OLP 23% PCPO 13% GPO 8% 2023-07-28 2023-08-26 NDP 53% OLP 23% PCPO 13% GPO 8% 2023-08-26 2023-10-07 NDP 54% OLP 23% PCPO 12% GPO 8% 2023-10-07 2023-10-23 NDP 54% OLP 23% PCPO 13% GPO 8% 2023-10-23 2023-12-01 NDP 54% OLP 22% PCPO 14% GPO 8% 2023-12-01 2023-12-20 NDP 53% OLP 24% PCPO 13% GPO 8% 2023-12-20 2024-02-02 NDP 52% OLP 25% PCPO 13% GPO 8% 2024-02-02 2024-02-20 NDP 50% OLP 28% PCPO 12% GPO 8% 2024-02-20 2024-03-05 NDP 48% OLP 27% PCPO 14% GPO 8% 2024-03-05 2024-04-04 NDP 50% OLP 26% PCPO 14% GPO 8% 2024-04-04 2024-05-03 NDP 49% OLP 26% PCPO 14% GPO 8% 2024-05-03 2024-06-30 NDP 50% OLP 25% PCPO 15% GPO 8% 2024-06-30 2024-07-29 NDP 48% OLP 25% PCPO 16% GPO 8% 2024-07-29 2024-10-09 NDP 49% OLP 25% PCPO 15% GPO 8% 2024-10-09 2024-11-11 NDP 49% OLP 25% PCPO 15% GPO 8% 2024-11-11 2024-12-15 NDP 50% OLP 24% PCPO 16% GPO 8% 2024-12-15

Odds of winning | Parkdale—High Park

OLP <1% PCPO <1% NDP >99% GPO <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2022-05-01 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 2025-09-01 Election 2022 OLP PCPO NDP GPO December 15, 2024 2022-04-30 NDP >99% OLP <1% GPO <1% PCPO <1% 2022-04-30 2022-05-03 NDP >99% OLP <1% GPO <1% PCPO <1% 2022-05-03 2022-05-04 NDP >99% OLP <1% GPO <1% PCPO <1% 2022-05-04 2022-05-05 NDP >99% OLP <1% GPO <1% PCPO <1% 2022-05-05 2022-05-06 NDP >99% OLP <1% GPO <1% PCPO <1% 2022-05-06 2022-05-07 NDP >99% OLP <1% GPO <1% PCPO <1% 2022-05-07 2022-05-08 NDP >99% OLP <1% GPO <1% PCPO <1% 2022-05-08 2022-05-09 NDP >99% OLP <1% GPO <1% PCPO <1% 2022-05-09 2022-05-10 NDP >99% OLP <1% GPO <1% PCPO <1% 2022-05-10 2022-05-11 NDP >99% OLP <1% GPO <1% PCPO <1% 2022-05-11 2022-05-12 NDP >99% OLP <1% GPO <1% PCPO <1% 2022-05-12 2022-05-13 NDP >99% OLP <1% GPO <1% PCPO <1% 2022-05-13 2022-05-14 NDP >99% OLP <1% GPO <1% PCPO <1% 2022-05-14 2022-05-15 NDP >99% OLP <1% GPO <1% PCPO <1% 2022-05-15 2022-05-16 NDP >99% OLP <1% GPO <1% PCPO <1% 2022-05-16 2022-05-17 NDP >99% OLP <1% GPO <1% PCPO <1% 2022-05-17 2022-05-18 NDP 99% OLP 1% GPO <1% PCPO <1% 2022-05-18 2022-05-19 NDP 99% OLP 1% GPO <1% PCPO <1% 2022-05-19 2022-05-20 NDP 98% OLP 2% GPO <1% PCPO <1% 2022-05-20 2022-05-21 NDP 98% OLP 2% GPO <1% PCPO <1% 2022-05-21 2022-05-22 NDP 98% OLP 2% GPO <1% PCPO <1% 2022-05-22 2022-05-23 NDP 98% OLP 2% GPO <1% PCPO <1% 2022-05-23 2022-05-24 NDP 98% OLP 2% GPO <1% PCPO <1% 2022-05-24 2022-05-25 NDP 98% OLP 2% GPO <1% PCPO <1% 2022-05-25 2022-05-26 NDP 98% OLP 2% GPO <1% PCPO <1% 2022-05-26 2022-05-27 NDP 99% OLP 1% GPO <1% PCPO <1% 2022-05-27 2022-05-28 NDP 99% OLP 1% GPO <1% PCPO <1% 2022-05-28 2022-05-29 NDP 98% OLP 2% GPO <1% PCPO <1% 2022-05-29 2022-05-30 NDP >99% OLP <1% GPO <1% PCPO <1% 2022-05-30 2022-05-31 NDP >99% OLP <1% GPO <1% PCPO <1% 2022-05-31 2022-06-01 NDP >99% OLP <1% GPO <1% PCPO <1% 2022-06-01 2022-06-03 NDP >99% GPO <1% PCPO <1% OLP <1% 2022-06-03 2022-12-30 NDP >99% GPO <1% PCPO <1% OLP <1% 2022-12-30 2023-02-15 NDP >99% GPO <1% PCPO <1% OLP <1% 2023-02-15 2023-03-09 NDP >99% GPO <1% PCPO <1% OLP <1% 2023-03-09 2023-03-17 NDP >99% GPO <1% PCPO <1% OLP <1% 2023-03-17 2023-04-16 NDP >99% GPO <1% PCPO <1% OLP <1% 2023-04-16 2023-07-07 NDP >99% GPO <1% PCPO <1% OLP <1% 2023-07-07 2023-07-22 NDP >99% GPO <1% PCPO <1% OLP <1% 2023-07-22 2023-07-28 NDP >99% GPO <1% PCPO <1% OLP <1% 2023-07-28 2023-08-26 NDP >99% GPO <1% PCPO <1% OLP <1% 2023-08-26 2023-10-07 NDP >99% GPO <1% PCPO <1% OLP <1% 2023-10-07 2023-10-23 NDP >99% GPO <1% PCPO <1% OLP <1% 2023-10-23 2023-12-01 NDP >99% GPO <1% PCPO <1% OLP <1% 2023-12-01 2023-12-20 NDP >99% GPO <1% PCPO <1% OLP <1% 2023-12-20 2024-02-02 NDP >99% GPO <1% PCPO <1% OLP <1% 2024-02-02 2024-02-20 NDP >99% OLP <1% GPO <1% PCPO <1% 2024-02-20 2024-03-05 NDP >99% OLP <1% GPO <1% PCPO <1% 2024-03-05 2024-04-04 NDP >99% GPO <1% PCPO <1% OLP <1% 2024-04-04 2024-05-03 NDP >99% GPO <1% PCPO <1% OLP <1% 2024-05-03 2024-06-30 NDP >99% GPO <1% PCPO <1% OLP <1% 2024-06-30 2024-07-29 NDP >99% GPO <1% PCPO <1% OLP <1% 2024-07-29 2024-10-09 NDP >99% GPO <1% PCPO <1% OLP <1% 2024-10-09 2024-11-11 NDP >99% GPO <1% PCPO <1% OLP <1% 2024-11-11 2024-12-15 NDP >99% OLP <1% GPO <1% PCPO <1% 2024-12-15

Recent electoral history | Parkdale—High Park



2014 2018 2022 Proj. NDP 40.8% 59.4% 54.0% 50% ± 9% OLP 39.6% 17.0% 22.4% 24% ± 7% PCPO 12.8% 18.0% 14.7% 16% ± 6% GPO 5.5% 4.7% 6.1% 8% ± 4% NBPO 0.0% 0.0% 1.3% 1% ± 1% ONP 0.0% 0.0% 0.8% 0% ± 1%