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Ontario

Thunder Bay—Atikokan


MPP: Holland, Kevin (PCPO)
Latest projection: February 20, 2025
Leaning PCPO

Candidates | Thunder Bay—Atikokan


PC Party of Ontario Kevin Holland
Liberal Party Stephen Margarit
Ontario NDP Judith Monteith-Farrell
Green Party Eric Arner
New Blue Party Martin Tempelman
Northern Ontario Party K.C. Jones

Candidates listed here are on the Elections Ontario website.

Thunder Bay—Atikokan 38% ± 10%▼ PCPO 31% ± 9%▼ OLP 26% ± 9%▲ NDP 4% ± 3% GPO PCPO 2022 36.3% 338Canada Popular vote projection | February 20, 2025
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Thunder Bay—Atikokan 88%▼ PCPO 10%▲ OLP 1%▲ NDP Odds of winning | February 20, 2025
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).


Popular vote projection | Thunder Bay—Atikokan

OLP 31% ± 9% PCPO 38% ± 10% NDP 26% ± 9% GPO 4% ± 3% Popular vote projection % | Thunder Bay—Atikokan 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2025-02-01 2025-02-15 2025-03-01 Election 2025 Campaign begins OLP PCPO NDP GPO February 20, 2025 2025-01-27 PCPO 37% OLP 30% NDP 27% GPO 4% 2025-01-27 2025-01-29 PCPO 37% OLP 30% NDP 26% GPO 4% 2025-01-29 2025-01-31 PCPO 40% OLP 29% NDP 26% GPO 3% 2025-01-31 2025-02-02 PCPO 40% OLP 29% NDP 26% GPO 3% 2025-02-02 2025-02-03 PCPO 39% OLP 30% NDP 26% GPO 3% 2025-02-03 2025-02-04 PCPO 40% OLP 31% NDP 24% GPO 3% 2025-02-04 2025-02-05 PCPO 40% OLP 31% NDP 24% GPO 3% 2025-02-05 2025-02-06 PCPO 41% OLP 30% NDP 24% GPO 3% 2025-02-06 2025-02-07 PCPO 41% OLP 30% NDP 24% GPO 3% 2025-02-07 2025-02-08 PCPO 40% OLP 30% NDP 24% GPO 3% 2025-02-08 2025-02-09 PCPO 41% OLP 30% NDP 25% GPO 4% 2025-02-09 2025-02-10 PCPO 41% OLP 30% NDP 24% GPO 3% 2025-02-10 2025-02-11 PCPO 41% OLP 31% NDP 23% GPO 4% 2025-02-11 2025-02-12 PCPO 41% OLP 31% NDP 22% GPO 4% 2025-02-12 2025-02-13 PCPO 41% OLP 31% NDP 22% GPO 4% 2025-02-13 2025-02-14 PCPO 41% OLP 32% NDP 22% GPO 4% 2025-02-14 2025-02-15 PCPO 42% OLP 32% NDP 21% GPO 4% 2025-02-15 2025-02-16 PCPO 42% OLP 32% NDP 21% GPO 4% 2025-02-16 2025-02-17 PCPO 41% OLP 32% NDP 22% GPO 4% 2025-02-17 2025-02-18 PCPO 41% OLP 32% NDP 22% GPO 4% 2025-02-18 2025-02-19 PCPO 42% OLP 32% NDP 21% GPO 4% 2025-02-19 2025-02-20 PCPO 38% OLP 31% NDP 26% GPO 4% 2025-02-20

Odds of winning | Thunder Bay—Atikokan

OLP 10% PCPO 88% NDP 1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2025-02-01 2025-02-15 2025-03-01 Election 2025 Campaign begins OLP PCPO NDP February 20, 2025 2025-01-27 PCPO 85% OLP 13% NDP 2% 2025-01-27 2025-01-29 PCPO 87% OLP 12% NDP 1% 2025-01-29 2025-01-31 PCPO 95% OLP 4% NDP 1% 2025-01-31 2025-02-02 PCPO 96% OLP 4% NDP <1% 2025-02-02 2025-02-03 PCPO 94% OLP 6% NDP 1% 2025-02-03 2025-02-04 PCPO 94% OLP 6% NDP <1% 2025-02-04 2025-02-05 PCPO 94% OLP 6% NDP <1% 2025-02-05 2025-02-06 PCPO 96% OLP 4% NDP <1% 2025-02-06 2025-02-07 PCPO 96% OLP 4% NDP <1% 2025-02-07 2025-02-08 PCPO 95% OLP 5% NDP <1% 2025-02-08 2025-02-09 PCPO 97% OLP 3% NDP <1% 2025-02-09 2025-02-10 PCPO 96% OLP 4% NDP <1% 2025-02-10 2025-02-11 PCPO 95% OLP 5% NDP <1% 2025-02-11 2025-02-12 PCPO 95% OLP 5% NDP <1% 2025-02-12 2025-02-13 PCPO 95% OLP 5% NDP <1% 2025-02-13 2025-02-14 PCPO 94% OLP 6% NDP <1% 2025-02-14 2025-02-15 PCPO 96% OLP 4% NDP <1% 2025-02-15 2025-02-16 PCPO 96% OLP 4% NDP <1% 2025-02-16 2025-02-17 PCPO 92% OLP 8% NDP <1% 2025-02-17 2025-02-18 PCPO 91% OLP 9% NDP <1% 2025-02-18 2025-02-19 PCPO 94% OLP 6% NDP <1% 2025-02-19 2025-02-20 PCPO 88% OLP 10% NDP 1% 2025-02-20

Recent electoral history | Thunder Bay—Atikokan



2014 2018 2022 Proj. PCPO 13.2% 23.2% 36.3% 38% ± 10% NDP 28.1% 36.3% 32.9% 26% ± 9% OLP 53.0% 36.0% 24.4% 31% ± 9% GPO 3.4% 2.7% 2.9% 4% ± 3% NBPO 0.0% 0.0% 2.0% 1% ± 1%